Local Council by-elections 15th November

[Tony Otim]

BASSETLAW DC; East Retford West (Lab sitting as independent disqualified for non-attendance)
Candidates:
AUCKLAND, Emma Jane (Conservative)
CALLINGHAM, Matthew Robert (Labour)
TAMBLYN-SAVILLE, Helen Louise (Liberal Democrats)

2015: Lab 1011, 889; Con 778; UKIP 576; LD 348
2014: Lab 544; UKIP 292; Con 232; LD 4.7
2012: Lab 707; Con 363
2010: Lab 782; Con 767; LD 515
2008: Con 570; Lab 324
2006: Con 602; Lab 317
2004: Con 575; Lab 399; LD 276
2002: Con 412, 378; Lab 396, 332



KENT CC; Canterbury North (Con died)
Candidates:
EGERTON, Joe (Independent)
HICKMAN, Ben (Labour)
LISTER, Alex (Liberal Democrats)
SIMONS, Joe (UKIP)
STANTON, Henry (Green)
THOMAS, Robert James (Conservative)

2017: Con 2321; Lab 700; LD 699; Grn 287; UKIP 240

The Labour candidate is the runner-up from last year.



OXFORDSHIRE CC; Grove & Wantage (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
GERNON, Dave (Labour)
HANNA, Jane (Liberal Democrats)
HARRIS, Kevin Alan (Green)
MABBETT, Ben (Conservative)

2017: LD 2403, 2153; Con 1958, 1738; Lab 745, 127; Grn 436
2013: LD 1700, 1651; Con 1309, 1106; Lab 610, 464; UKIP 599, 593; Grn 346.

The Conservative was the second Conservative candidate last year. The Green has stood in both the last elections here.



STROUD DC; Dursley (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BLACKWELL-WHITEHEAD, Richard John (Liberal Democrats)
DIGNON, Yvonne (Green)
HALL, Trevor Graham (Labour)
PATRICK, Loraine Vivienne (Conservative)

2016: Lab 932, 851, 757; Con 623, 583, 565; LD 606; Grn 359

The Conservative was the top-placed Conservative in 2016

[carlton43]

Oct 29, 2018 21:05:06 GMT Tony Otim said:

BASSETLAW DC; East Retford West (Lab sitting as independent resigned)
Candidates:
AUCKLAND, Emma Jane (Conservative)
CALLINGHAM, Matthew Robert (Labour)
TAMBLYN-SAVILLE, Helen Louise (Liberal Democrats)

2015: Lab 1011, 889; Con 778; UKIP 576; LD 348
2014: Lab 544; UKIP 292; Con 232; LD 4.7
2012: Lab 707; Con 363
2010: Lab 782; Con 767; LD 515
2008: Con 570; Lab 324
2006: Con 602; Lab 317
2004: Con 575; Lab 399; LD 276
2002: Con 412, 378; Lab 396, 332



KENT CC; Canterbury North (Con died)
Candidates:
EGERTON, Joe (Independent)
HICKMAN, Ben (Labour)
LISTER, Alex (Liberal Democrats)
SIMONS, Joe (UKIP)
STANTON, Henry (Green)
THOMAS, Robert James (Conservative)

2017: Con 2321; Lab 700; LD 699; Grn 287; UKIP 240

The Labour candidate is the runner-up from last year.



OXFORDSHIRE CC; Grove & Wantage (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
GERNON, Dave (Labour)
HANNA, Jane (Liberal Democrats)
HARRIS, Kevin Alan (Green)
MABBETT, Ben (Conservative)

2017: LD 2403, 2153; Con 1958, 1738; Lab 745, 127; Grn 436
2013: LD 1700, 1651; Con 1309, 1106; Lab 610, 464; UKIP 599, 593; Grn 346.

The Conservative was the second Conservative candidate last year. The Green has stood in both the last elections here.



STROUD DC; Dursley (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BLACKWELL-WHITEHEAD, Richard John (Liberal Democrats)
DIGNON, Yvonne (Green)
HALL, Trevor Graham (Labour)
PATRICK, Loraine Vivienne (Conservative)

2016: Lab 932, 851, 757; Con 623, 583, 565; LD 606; Grn 359

The Conservative was the top-placed Conservative in 2016

I tip East Retford as a good potential for a Conservative gain.

[Deleted]

One of these days there's going to be a by-election in my town. For now I guess I'll have to settle for the ward 500m to my south.


Imagine, if you will, a post-industrial town, former manufacturing town somewhere in northern England. A rural part of south or west Yorkshire for example. Now, using your mental cut-and-paste tool, cut it out and paste into the edge of the Cotswolds.


Welcome to Dursley. You might be in the Stroud District, but you are most definitely NOT in Stroud. Remember that. It will be important. We are at one end of the Cotswold Way and the town's annual walking festival attracts hundreds of visitors each year. Now best known for this location, presumably because estate agents think "Cotswolds village" sells better than "post-industrial shithole", Dursley is also the birth place of Lister's engines and the Pedersen bicycle and contains the Old Spot, CAMRA pub of the year 2007 and regularly voted the best pub in the county (it was here that I spent my last day of sixth form. My biology teacher still owes me a pint).  Its history goes back much further, with the first mention of the town being in the Doomsday Book, and a castle was built here by Roger de Berkeley in 1153. A conversation in Shakespeare's Richard II is believed to be set on the top of nearby Stinchcombe Hill, now home to a golf course and Dursley RFC.


At one time, Lister's factory (now houses) and Cam Mill employed nearly all the town's residents, but the factory no longer exists and the mill employs a fraction of the people it used to. The town has pretty much merged with the village of Cam (where I actually live), but there are still noticeable differences. Cam is rapidly becoming a sleeper town for people in management jobs in Gloucester and Bristol who want to live in the country, but Dursley has so far largely escaped that fate.

Political profile

Dursley may be a post-industrial town, but it hasn't always had the voting profile of one. In 2002, it elected 2 Tories and 1 Labour councillor, although the LibDems picked up a Tory seat in 2003 and by 2008 the Tories held all three seats. It has trended Labour since then, and Labour won all three seats in 2016. The demographic divides are a little weird - lots of middle class areas which vote Labour, and comparatively deprived areas with a lot of Tory-voting C2 social class members. Of course, there are also many working class Labour members from the industrial days who came to politics through the trade unions. There is also an added dimension in the importance of personal politics, although there are also very solid partisan votes on both sides. As you can imagine, all of this makes it a fun place to run a campaign! Overall though, I would say Labour have to start this one as favourites.

The candidates

Richard Blackwell-Whitehead (LibDem): Former town councillor. I don't know much about him, although he gives an address on the edge of town.

Yvonne Dignon (Green): lives in Stroud, and apparently has never been to Dursley. 

Trevor Hall (Labour): Eldest of 9, 8 of whom still live in Cam and Dursley. A shop steward at Lister's factory before becoming a full-time Unite official until he retired last year. He knows most people in the town and is related to a fair few of them.

Lorraine Patrick (Conservative): County councillor for Dursley and town councillor. She lives on the same road as the Labour candidate. Very well-know in Dursley and quite well-respected, although not especially well-liked.

The parties

Liberal Democrats
Advantages: 

• A residual LibDem vote in the town

Disadvantages:

• But not much of one
• Nobody has seen hide nor hair of them on the campaign trail

Greens
Advantages:

• Ummmm……...none really.

Disadvantages:

• A candidate from Stroud who has never set foot in Dursley is a terrible choice
• To be honest, this is like describing the disadvantages facing Labour in most of rural Devon, or the Tories in Manchester. There just isn't a Green vote here.

Labour
Advantages:

• 30-50 votes from our candidate's relatives alone.
• Building a new leisure centre in Dursley against stiff Tory opposition.
• Currently running the district council (with LD and Green support), and the council's approval ratings have never been higher.
• Activists are out in Dursley at least once a month and our more active members are very well known, leading to a bizarre situation where Cam, Dursley & Berkeley BLP is more popular than the party nationally.

Disadvantages:

• Recently tried to implement car parking charges in Dursley, and then had to back out.
• Jeremy Corbyn does not go down well in much of Dursley.
• Low turnout will hurt Labour.
• The news that we will get far more houses than we can really accommodate is about to break - which will go down like a lead balloon.
  

Conservatives

Advantages: 

• Well known, well respected candidate.
• Have been exploiting the saga over parking charges to its full potential.
• Have had their parliamentary candidate out working her socks off in Dursley.
• A recent visit to the Old Spot from Sajid Javid.

Disadvantages:

• A recent visit to the Old Spot from Sajid Javid.
• Have had their parliamentary candidate out working her socks off in Dursley.
• They support the decision to remove us from Stroud constituency - but I'm not sure how much this will actually hurt them.
• Only ever seen in the town at election time, and even then don't usually bother with locals.

Prediction: Labour hold, majority 10-20%. I can see it being as low as 5% or as high as 25%, but would be stunned by anything outside that range.

[The Bishop]

Oct 29, 2018 21:39:06 GMT carlton43 said:

I tip East Retford as a good potential for a Conservative gain.

Though there was only one Tory candidate in 2015, as opposed to Labour standing for both vacancies.

Which maybe skews the result somewhat, though I would still expect your side to have a good go at it.

[carlton43]

Oct 31, 2018 11:42:12 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 29, 2018 21:39:06 GMT carlton43 said:

I tip East Retford as a good potential for a Conservative gain.

Though there was only one Tory candidate in 2015, as opposed to Labour standing for both vacancies.

Which maybe skews the result somewhat, though I would still expect your side to have a good go at it.

It is less naturally conservative than West Retford with what used to be the quite good club, but it is very much the sort of area that I believe to be in the course of fundamental change towards us.  However it is a long time since I was last there on the canal.

[maxque]

Oct 29, 2018 21:05:06 GMT Tony Otim said:

BASSETLAW DC; East Retford West (Lab sitting as independent resigned)
Candidates:
AUCKLAND, Emma Jane (Conservative)
CALLINGHAM, Matthew Robert (Labour)
TAMBLYN-SAVILLE, Helen Louise (Liberal Democrats)

2015: Lab 1011, 889; Con 778; UKIP 576; LD 348
2014: Lab 544; UKIP 292; Con 232; LD 4.7
2012: Lab 707; Con 363
2010: Lab 782; Con 767; LD 515
2008: Con 570; Lab 324
2006: Con 602; Lab 317
2004: Con 575; Lab 399; LD 276
2002: Con 412, 378; Lab 396, 332

This is not a resignation, but rather a disqualification for non-attendance.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 31, 2018 16:24:15 GMT maxque said:

Oct 29, 2018 21:05:06 GMT Tony Otim said:

BASSETLAW DC; East Retford West (Lab sitting as independent resigned)
Candidates:
AUCKLAND, Emma Jane (Conservative)
CALLINGHAM, Matthew Robert (Labour)
TAMBLYN-SAVILLE, Helen Louise (Liberal Democrats)

2015: Lab 1011, 889; Con 778; UKIP 576; LD 348
2014: Lab 544; UKIP 292; Con 232; LD 4.7
2012: Lab 707; Con 363
2010: Lab 782; Con 767; LD 515
2008: Con 570; Lab 324
2006: Con 602; Lab 317
2004: Con 575; Lab 399; LD 276
2002: Con 412, 378; Lab 396, 332

This is not a resignation, but rather a disqualification for non-attendance.

Now corrected.

[timrollpickering]

Oct 29, 2018 21:05:06 GMT Tony Otim said:

KENT CC; Canterbury North (Con died)

I lived in what is now this division for a total of three out of four years when I was at the University of Kent. My comments from a previous thread:

Oct 4, 2018 13:54:58 GMT timrollpickering said:

Kent CC division names are a bit awkward, resulting in separate "Canterbury North" and "Canterbury City North" divisions, despite the whole authority being "Canterbury City" or "City of Canterbury".

Canterbury North is also "and West". It's a mixture of the south central part of Whitstable, the University of Kent's Canterbury campus (although the boundary cuts it off from nearby places with many student renters), Rough Common and Chartham plus small villages and countryside in between.

Whitstable is historically the bedrock of Labour support in Canterbury but I don't know the breakdown across divisions. The Kent campus will have very few of the same voters as the general election (the number of returning students in campus accommodation has plummeted over the years), though there are some staff who live within the grounds. Given the proximity of the register update, how many newly arrived students will be on the register come polling day?

Up until 1974 a smaller Canterbury was the smallest county borough (what we now call a unitary authority); the northern boundary ran through what became the University of Kent at Canterbury campus (hence the original somewhat convoluted name that aimed to satisfy the separate city & county interests) and to this day electoral boundaries cut off the campus from the Hales Place estate which is especially popular with Kent students.

The division consists of bits of three district wards - all of Chestfield (south central Whitstable & hinterland), almost all of Blean Forest (the village of Blean, the Kent campus plus smaller settlements, farms and woods) bar a small part of the expanded Canterbury proper in the St Dunstan's area, and the Chartham part of Chartham & Stone Street.

The division contains much of one of the very first railways, the Canterbury & Whitstable (or "Crab & Winkle") which connected the cathedral city to its port on the north Kent coast. This line was closed and lifted in the early 1950s. A tunnel ran under Tyler Hill with the university campus later built on top; in 1974 a collapse in the tunnel destroyed part of the university's Cornwallis building and the tunnel was subsequently filled in.

Given all the talk about student voting in Canterbury (which is far from the only thing that has changed the seat over the years), my understanding is that at Kent university accommodation is offered to:

* All first year students (including postgraduates, still, I think, even if they are existing Kent students going straight on) who apply by a key deadline

* Final year students with a third year away from Canterbury

...and only a very small handful of other students get places. So very few of the June 2017 student voters will be living in this ward, mainly those with off-campus accommodation within it.

[yellowperil]

Nov 2, 2018 13:06:39 GMT timrollpickering said:

Oct 29, 2018 21:05:06 GMT Tony Otim said:

KENT CC; Canterbury North (Con died)

I lived in what is now this division for a total of three out of four years when I was at the University of Kent. My comments from a previous thread:

Oct 4, 2018 13:54:58 GMT timrollpickering said:

Kent CC division names are a bit awkward, resulting in separate "Canterbury North" and "Canterbury City North" divisions, despite the whole authority being "Canterbury City" or "City of Canterbury".

Canterbury North is also "and West". It's a mixture of the south central part of Whitstable, the University of Kent's Canterbury campus (although the boundary cuts it off from nearby places with many student renters), Rough Common and Chartham plus small villages and countryside in between.

Whitstable is historically the bedrock of Labour support in Canterbury but I don't know the breakdown across divisions. The Kent campus will have very few of the same voters as the general election (the number of returning students in campus accommodation has plummeted over the years), though there are some staff who live within the grounds. Given the proximity of the register update, how many newly arrived students will be on the register come polling day?

Up until 1974 a smaller Canterbury was the smallest county borough (what we now call a unitary authority); the northern boundary ran through what became the University of Kent at Canterbury campus (hence the original somewhat convoluted name that aimed to satisfy the separate city & county interests) and to this day electoral boundaries cut off the campus from the Hales Place estate which is especially popular with Kent students.

The division consists of bits of three district wards - all of Chestfield (south central Whitstable & hinterland), almost all of Blean Forest (the village of Blean, the Kent campus plus smaller settlements, farms and woods) bar a small part of the expanded Canterbury proper in the St Dunstan's area, and the Chartham part of Chartham & Stone Street.

The division contains much of one of the very first railways, the Canterbury & Whitstable (or "Crab & Winkle") which connected the cathedral city to its port on the north Kent coast. This line was closed and lifted in the early 1950s. A tunnel ran under Tyler Hill with the university campus later built on top; in 1974 a collapse in the tunnel destroyed part of the university's Cornwallis building and the tunnel was subsequently filled in.

Given all the talk about student voting in Canterbury (which is far from the only thing that has changed the seat over the years), my understanding is that at Kent university accommodation is offered to:

* All first year students (including postgraduates, still, I think, even if they are existing Kent students going straight on) who apply by a key deadline

* Final year students with a third year away from Canterbury

...and only a very small handful of other students get places. So very few of the June 2017 student voters will be living in this ward, mainly those with off-campus accommodation within it.

. 

It looks a very long shot,but I am hearing of a pretty vigorous and serious Lib Dem campaign going on here. I would be fairly confident that it may be the Lib Dems rather than Labour who will challenge the Tories here which might be a bit counter-intuitive given the progress of Labour in the area generally. It will certainly be a factor against any assumption that a Labour tide is going to sweep the Tories aside- the real battle may be for second place.Of course, the Labour candidate was indeed runner up last time, but by just 1 vote ahead of Lib Dems, whose interests then were concentrated in a neighbouring division, and over 1600 votes off the Tory. This is a very mixed division , as well described by Tim above -worth emphasising the divide between suburban Canterbury where the vote will be pretty mixed and fluid, and the rural hinterland which really is solidly blue.

[Deleted]

Oct 31, 2018 12:52:35 GMT carlton43 said:

Oct 31, 2018 11:42:12 GMT The Bishop said:

Though there was only one Tory candidate in 2015, as opposed to Labour standing for both vacancies.

Which maybe skews the result somewhat, though I would still expect your side to have a good go at it.

It is less naturally conservative than West Retford with what used to be the quite good club, but it is very much the sort of area that I believe to be in the course of fundamental change towards us.  However it is a long time since I was last there on the canal.

i enjoy s good club

[myth11]

The con Candidate has stood in Worksop north east dc 3 times,east Retford north dc once also Worksop south cc once and has lost all 5 contests.
East Retford west is little strange in Bassetlaw as it has decent lib dem vote at general election,s but has not really been worked well by lib dems in off year locals with no candidates in a lot of years.

[Deleted]

OK, so a few things have changed in Dursley since my last post.

>Car-parking has turned into a non-issue. Not one person has mentioned it.
>Ditto local plan.
>Busses, however are. Stagecoach cut our service to Gloucester a while ago, but I didn't expect it to feature because I though the fight would be well lost by now. They have oh-so-graciously diverted three busses to cover us, still leaving us five short. The Tory county Cllr/district candidate is claiming sole credit, conveniently forgetting 1) she showed no interest until Labour started campaigning on it and 2) that she knew about the county council cutting the subsidies before the news went public. The local paper ran an article claiming "victory", which we think may have broken purdah laws. This will hurt Labour, but I'm not sure how badly.

I'm not changing my prediction (much), but I think the 5%-25% limit I said previously has now become 5% Tory majority to 20% Labour majority, and a Labour majority of 5-15% now looks more likely than 10-20. But a lot will still depend on what and who the turnout is.

In other news, we have knocked on every single door in the ward, and received some rather.....creative abuse, in the form of being told to "go away and burn your scruffy leader"!

[ideal4radio]

Nov 8, 2018 19:53:29 GMT @europeanlefty said:

In other news, we have knocked on every single door in the ward, and received some rather.....creative abuse, in the form of being told to "go away and burn your scruffy leader"!

  Ah, the great British public !

  " You never hear from them Candidates/Councillors ", is an often heard complaint, and then you try and engage only to be met with abuse .. I think I worked out fairly early on not to discuss Political issues with the majority, as people tend to clam up and terminate the conversation. It's mostly because they don't wish to appear to look daft, because they don't follow local or national issues like we do ! We are " Saddo's " to use Mrs Ideal4radio's terminology ..... 

[froome]

Nov 8, 2018 19:53:29 GMT @europeanlefty said:

In other news, we have knocked on every single door in the ward, and received some rather.....creative abuse, in the form of being told to "go away and burn your scruffy leader"!

It's never a good idea to canvass on Bonfire Night.

[Adam in Stroud]

Not much to add to @europeanlefty's reports, but
- Richard Blackwell-Whitehead had the parks and open spaces brief for the town council. He "shoots lasers at things" for a living, there being a certain amount of hi-tech and engineering in Dursley.
- We've done a bit of leafletting and a tiny bit of door-knocking but essentially the LDs in Stroud constituency are what you might call a work in progress atm.
- Probably worth noting that the Conservatives took the County Division from labour at the 2016 CC elections.
- There are some relatively new housing developments which seem to be taking some overspill from South Glos.
- Conservative candidate unkindly described to me by a voter as "ah yes, the lady who looks like a man and likes horses."

[yellowperil]

Nov 8, 2018 22:54:23 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Not much to add to @europeanlefty 's reports, but
- Richard Blackwell-Whitehead had the parks and open spaces brief for the town council. He "shoots lasers at things" for a living, there being a certain amount of hi-tech and engineering in Dursley.
- We've done a bit of leafletting and a tiny bit of door-knocking but essentially the LDs in Stroud constituency are what you might call a work in progress atm.
- Probably worth noting that the Conservatives took the County Division from labour at the 2016 CC elections.
- There are some relatively new housing developments which seem to be taking some overspill from South Glos.
- Conservative candidate unkindly described to me by a voter as "ah yes, the lady who looks like a man and likes horses."

Ah yes, I think we will all know Conservative ladies who answer to that description.

[Deleted]

Nov 8, 2018 22:54:23 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Not much to add to @europeanlefty 's reports, but
- Richard Blackwell-Whitehead had the parks and open spaces brief for the town council. He "shoots lasers at things" for a living, there being a certain amount of hi-tech and engineering in Dursley.
- We've done a bit of leafletting and a tiny bit of door-knocking but essentially the LDs in Stroud constituency are what you might call a work in progress atm.
- Probably worth noting that the Conservatives took the County Division from labour at the 2016 CC elections.
- There are some relatively new housing developments which seem to be taking some overspill from South Glos.
- Conservative candidate unkindly described to me by a voter as "ah yes, the lady who looks like a man and likes horses."

That is quite possibly the best description of Lorraine Patrick I've ever heard! A friend of mine who used to own a horse told me that Lorraine does not treat her horses at all well, but I don't now how much truth there is in that.

[Deleted]

Also, the Dursley county division also includes The Stanleys (!) and Coaley & Uley. I'm not sure the Tories were ahead in Dursley, and even if they were it was only by a small margin on an absolutely dire night for Labour.

[Adam in Stroud]

Nov 8, 2018 23:13:42 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Also, the Dursley county division also includes The Stanleys (!) and Coaley & Uley. I'm not sure the Tories were ahead in Dursley, and even if they were it was only by a small margin on an absolutely dire night for Labour.

Yes a depressingly good night for the Tories, who deserve bugger all in GCC. You may be right on where their votes came from, but I thought it worth noting since the division had previously been held by Lab.

[Deleted]

Nov 8, 2018 23:25:04 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Nov 8, 2018 23:13:42 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Also, the Dursley county division also includes The Stanleys (!) and Coaley & Uley. I'm not sure the Tories were ahead in Dursley, and even if they were it was only by a small margin on an absolutely dire night for Labour.

Yes a depressingly good night for the Tories, who deserve bugger all in GCC. You may be right on where their votes came from, but I thought it worth noting since the division had previously been held by Lab.

Oh, it's absolutely worth mentioning. The fact that it was a Labour candidate from the Stanleys vs a Tory from Dursley could also have affected what happened in the ward at that election, although to be honest I was watching my division of Cam Valley more than Dursley at that count.