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Post by carlton43 on Nov 16, 2018 2:48:23 GMT
Labour 49.9% (+12.6) Conservative 33.5%( +4.8) Lib Dem 16.5% (+3.7) All up, as no UKIP from last time Well, that is a good sound Labour result and confounds my suggestion of a possible Con win. Funny things, Local By-Elections and one never knows what they may signify, if anything? So much is down to candidate perception, amount of work done, local issues, performance of the council, etc. The medium term trend here has been good as with Notts/Derbys in general, but the UKIP unwind looks to have been unhelpful to us, and perhaps in a fairly robust Leave area today's rather febrile antics by my party have gained a just dessert? |
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,623 
Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Nov 16, 2018 7:14:20 GMT
Will today’s ‘events’ affect these Local by elections or not? maybe Conservative vote share is up in all 3 of last nights results. No problem for them at all 😉 |
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 16, 2018 7:52:20 GMT
The constituency names usually rendered Paisley & Renfrewshire North & Paisley & Renfrewshire South are annoying too, as they imply that all of Paisley is in both constituencies. I think (bearing in mind that they're County Constituencies) that the correct names are North Paisley & North Renfrewshire, and South Paisley & South Renfrewshire. The official names are those given in the Parliamentary Constituencies (Scotland) Order 2005 (SI 2005 No. 250) at page 19 - and are "Paisley and Renfrewshire North County Constituency" and "Paisley and Renfrewshire South County Constituency". The. Original proposal was Paisley North & Renfrewshire North + Paisley South & Renfrewshire South. The response to the public consultation was the double compass point was ridiculous (which I agree with), so the Scottish Boundary Commission dumped the first one. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2018 10:35:46 GMT
Conservative vote share is up in all 3 of last nights results. No problem for them at all 😉 though some predicted theyd win Bassetlaw. Good result for them in Stroud though. Shocking result for the lib dems snd greens though |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 16, 2018 10:53:23 GMT
Conservative vote share is up in all 3 of last nights results. No problem for them at all 😉 though some predicted theyd win Bassetlaw. Good result for them in Stroud though. Shocking result for the lib dems snd greens though Yes , very effective squeeze operation there, from the look of it. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 16, 2018 11:22:25 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 16, 2018 11:24:50 GMT
KENT Canterbury North
THOMAS, Robert James (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,355
LISTER, Alexander James (Liberal Democrats) 756
HICKMAN, Ben (Labour Party) 660
STANTON, Henry John Arthur (Green Party) 157
EGERTON, Joseph Salisbury (Independent) 155
SIMONS, Joe Charles (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 120
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 16, 2018 11:37:14 GMT
KENT Canterbury North THOMAS, Robert James (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,355 LISTER, Alexander James (Liberal Democrats) 756 HICKMAN, Ben (Labour Party) 660 STANTON, Henry John Arthur (Green Party) 157 EGERTON, Joseph Salisbury (Independent) 155 SIMONS, Joe Charles (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 120 Change on Counties 2017 (held in the run up to the general): Con -12%, Lab +4%, Lib Dem +7%, UKIP -2%, Green -2%, Ind +5% Con HOLD with a majority of 599 (39%) on a swing from Con to Lib Dem of 9.5% |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 16, 2018 11:40:26 GMT
Conservative vote share is up in all 3 of last nights results. No problem for them at all 😉 Not in Canterbury they ain't  And as I said yesterday, quite a few votes in these contests were cast in advance. It wouldn't be a total shock if the Tories actually "won" Dursley on postals, even. |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 16, 2018 11:48:06 GMT
Conservative vote share is up in all 3 of last nights results. No problem for them at all 😉 though some predicted theyd win Bassetlaw. Good result for them in Stroud though. Shocking result for the lib dems snd greens though I understand that the Lib Dems' 2016 candidate for Dursley, who was a former councillor for the ward, is no longer with us. Clearly he had a large personal vote. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 16, 2018 11:55:23 GMT
Bassetlaw, East Retford West - Labour hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Labour | 441 | 49.9% | +12.7% | +14.1% | +1.4% | -16.8% | Conservative | 296 | 33.5% | +4.8% | +4.2% | +12.8% | +0.2% | Liberal democrat | 146 | 16.5% | +3.7% | +3.4% | +11.8% | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -21.2% | -21.7% | -26.0% |
| Total votes | 883 |
| 33% | 33% | 79% | 83% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~4% / 5% since 2015 but Labour to Conservative 5¾%, if meaningful, since 2014 and 8½% since 2012 Council now 33 Labour, 12 Conservative, 3 Independent Kent, Canterbury North - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | | Conservative | 1,355 | 42.3% | -12.3% | Liberal Democrat | 756 | 23.6% | +7.1% | Labour | 660 | 20.6% | +4.1% | Green | 157 | 4.9% | -1.9% | Independent | 155 | 4.8% | from nowhere | UKIP | 120 | 3.7% | -1.9% | Total votes | 3,203 |
| 75% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 9¾% since 2017 - Conservative to Labour 8¼% since 2017 Council now 67 Conservative, 7 Liberal Democrat, 5 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Resident Oxfordshire, Grove & Wantage - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | since 2013 "top" | since 2013 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,925 | 47.9% | +4.6% | +2.4% | +10.7% | +9.5% | Conservative | 1,447 | 36.0% | +0.7% | -0.9% | +7.3% | +8.3% | Labour | 459 | 11.4% | -2.0% | +2.7% | -1.9% | -0.9% | Green | 185 | 4.6% | -3.3% | -4.1% | -3.0% | -3.3% | UKIP |
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| -13.1% | -13.7% | Total vote | 4,016 |
| 72% | 80% | 88% | 92% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 2% / 1¾% since 2017 and 1¾% / ½% since 2013 Council now 30 Conservative, 14 Labour, 12 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent Alliance, 2 Independent, 1 Non Group, 1 Vacant Stroud, Dursley - Labour hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | Labour | 889 | 50.5% | +13.5% | +15.2% | Conservative | 704 | 40.0% | +15.2% | +15.4% | Green | 90 | 5.1% | -9.1% | -9.8% | Liberal Democrat | 79 | 4.5% | -19.6% | -20.7% | Total votes | 1,762 |
| 70% | 73% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ ¾% / 0% since 2016 Council now 22 Conservative, 16 Labour, 9 Green, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Conservative, 1 Independent
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 16, 2018 12:06:26 GMT
though some predicted theyd win Bassetlaw. Good result for them in Stroud though. Shocking result for the lib dems snd greens though I understand that the Lib Dems' 2016 candidate for Dursley, who was a former councillor for the ward, is no longer with us. Clearly he had a large personal vote. Well, something odd happened, that's more than just a squeeze on our vote. Did our candidate insult the mayor's mother or something like that? |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 16, 2018 12:48:41 GMT
I understand that the Lib Dems' 2016 candidate for Dursley, who was a former councillor for the ward, is no longer with us. Clearly he had a large personal vote. Well, something odd happened, that's more than just a squeeze on our vote. Did our candidate insult the mayor's mother or something like that? Also vote shares for both Green and Lib Dems in 2016 were artificially inflated by both only having 1 candidate - so a reasonable amount of people probably voted for both, which obviously can't happen in a by-election. Not the whole explanation, but part of the picture... |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 16, 2018 13:15:25 GMT
Though somebody in the know locally suggested that the byelection became a de facto referendum on the (Labour-led) council, not hard to imagine a polarising effect there.
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 16, 2018 13:51:33 GMT
I am slightly disappointed by the Lib Dem vote in Canterbury North- in spite of going up over 7%, going from third to second, and being the only party actually to increase their vote in absolute terms. They had by far the best campaign and might easily have done better still, but there were large parts of this division which had never known anything but solid blue, so winning it was never on, and maybe that imposed a limitation of sorts to the campaign. The unknown factor was probably was always going to be the student vote, but the number of students voting was not all that great , at most a few hundred out of over 3000, and almost all of those new voters compared with any previous election. The campaign focus was on the need to upgrade the hospital at Canterbury and there are some indicators that might happen,but some of us will be hoping that is not at the expense of Ashford or Thanet - the William Harvey and QEQM hospitals being the leading district hospitals in East Kent at present.
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Nov 16, 2018 17:37:19 GMT
Dursley: Lab 889 Con 704 Grn 90 LD 79 Further stats, courtesy of the Gazette series: Spoilt votes: 3 (writing or mark by which voter could be identified 1, being unmarked or void for uncertainty 2) Electorate: 5459 Ballot Papers Issued: 1766 Turnout: 32.3% |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 16, 2018 18:22:50 GMT
WRT the poor LD performance in Dursley, all the above explanations are relevant, i.e.
- previous vote bolstered by candidacy of Brian Marsh, so loss of personal vote after his death (I didn't like to mention this beforehand on a public forum as unhelpful to our candidate)
- Squeeze
- The Conservatives are opposition to a "traffic light" District Council, so arguably you either vote Conservative if you don't like the council or for the leading member of the coalition if you do, which was obviously Labour.
But it also has to be said that as @europeanlefty alluded before, we ran a very limited campaign. Dursley's not an area of strength and we did not have a candidate in place before the by-election was called so he had not much local profile. And while I'm not going to go into details in public our local party is a work in progress.
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742
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Post by Adrian on Nov 17, 2018 12:26:21 GMT
East Retford West is a wonderful oddity. I wonder how many other wards have two opposite compass points within their names. Having now checked with old maps, I can see that East Retford North is actually West Retford, East Retford West and East Retford South are mainly Ordsall, and East Retford East is mainly North Retford. |
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Post by froome on Nov 17, 2018 12:59:07 GMT
WRT the poor LD performance in Dursley, all the above explanations are relevant, i.e. - previous vote bolstered by candidacy of Brian Marsh, so loss of personal vote after his death (I didn't like to mention this beforehand on a public forum as unhelpful to our candidate) - Squeeze - The Conservatives are opposition to a "traffic light" District Council, so arguably you either vote Conservative if you don't like the council or for the leading member of the coalition if you do, which was obviously Labour. But it also has to be said that as @europeanlefty alluded before, we ran a very limited campaign. Dursley's not an area of strength and we did not have a candidate in place before the by-election was called so he had not much local profile. And while I'm not going to go into details in public our local party is a work in progress. Yes, I had to smile at the comment about ours being a shocking vote, when I assume we ran no campaign and had a candidate from well outside of the town, and yet overtook the Lib Dems in a classic squeeze vote on both our parties. I'm not surprised at the work in progress comment, I know plenty of those in our party! |
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