European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Oct 31, 2021 12:30:51 GMT
I've yet to see any evidence of that actually being true I suppose at push you could say that the fact the Tories lead amongst C2 is higher than amongst ABC1 and DE suggests the Tories do best amongst semi skilled labourers. But C2DE does include lots of over 60s who are wealthy but have little income Don't most sociologists regard those ABCDE categorisations as being largely nonsense though?
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Opinium
Oct 31, 2021 13:02:24 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 31, 2021 13:02:24 GMT
I suppose at push you could say that the fact the Tories lead amongst C2 is higher than amongst ABC1 and DE suggests the Tories do best amongst semi skilled labourers. But C2DE does include lots of over 60s who are wealthy but have little income Don't most sociologists regard those ABCDE categorisations as being largely nonsense though? I don't know about most but many do. It still appears largely the way we present most data when talking about class, that or income.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 31, 2021 14:35:38 GMT
If you're talking about Opinium specifically, the occupation categories they currently use swing rather a lot from poll to poll because of small sample sizes - and of course, like all such things, they are themselves unweighted. And there are known to be problems getting representative occupation samples now. The main constant is Conservative strength in the 'managerial' category despite its relatively small size which, well, yes, quite.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 31, 2021 14:45:53 GMT
Don't most sociologists regard those ABCDE categorisations as being largely nonsense though? I don't know about most but many do. It still appears largely the way we present most data when talking about class, that or income. More outdated than nonsense, and in fact in terms of official statistics, replaced by another scheme, but yes, still referred to colloquially, particularly by pollsters.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 31, 2021 14:50:56 GMT
Interesting also that both the American father of focus groups, Frank Luntz, who’s been working for the Conservatives, and Lord Ashcroft have both concluded that it’s not support for the Conservatives but for Johnson, and both have highlighted a similarity with the Republican Party when Johnson and Trump are no longer factors. Have they got evidence for that? A quick look at Johnson's personal ratings do not indicate a massive level of personal popularity since at least 2016. Rather, his recent electoral success seems down to positioning his party at the right place on Brexit, having a crap opposition, and benefitting from a pandemic. That doesn't seem very tied to the man himself. There will be some people who only vote Conservative because of Johnson, but equally there will be some who do the opposite while a much larger number have and will keep voting Conservative regardless.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 31, 2021 14:52:09 GMT
Interesting also that both the American father of focus groups, Frank Luntz, who’s been working for the Conservatives, and Lord Ashcroft have both concluded that it’s not support for the Conservatives but for Johnson, and both have highlighted a similarity with the Republican Party when Johnson and Trump are no longer factors. Have they got evidence for that? A quick look at Johnson's personal ratings do not indicate a massive level of personal popularity since at least 2016. Rather, his recent electoral success seems down to positioning his party at the right place on Brexit, having a crap opposition, and benefitting from a pandemic. That doesn't seem very tied to the man himself. There will be some people who only vote Conservative because of Johnson, but equally there will be some who do the opposite while a much larger number have and will keep voting Conservative regardless. The clue is in “focus groups” 🙄
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Opinium
Oct 31, 2021 15:16:02 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 31, 2021 15:16:02 GMT
The most recent opinium poll breaks favourability down by eu vote and occupation. In short whether you are ABC1 or C2DE if you voted leave you like Boris if not you don't. Though there are more ABC1 remainers and more C2DE leavers
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Opinium
Oct 31, 2021 19:54:33 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 31, 2021 19:54:33 GMT
Opinium's definition of a "Blue Wall" seat is flawed; they have just picked out Conservative-held seats with a strong Remain vote, many of which have been held by Labour or the Liberal Democrats in recent memory (although Rushcliffe, Bournemouth East, and East Worthing & Shoreham definitely count). Notably, Truro & Falmouth was notionally Lib Dem upon its creation (having primarily been created from Truro & St Austell) and only in 2015 (amidst divided opposition) was the Conservative majority substantial, and by all standards it is a key Con-Lab marginal. If Labour and the Lib Dems are aiming to capture a "Blue Wall" that has not been held by either within recent memory (2010 seems like yesterday to me) then they are in for a big disappointment.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Nov 6, 2021 19:24:12 GMT
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Nov 13, 2021 18:08:44 GMT
A bit of ramping going on about this one tonight.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 13, 2021 18:30:12 GMT
A bit of ramping going on about this one tonight. Big Labour lead type of ramping.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Nov 13, 2021 20:14:17 GMT
Was that it? 🤔
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Post by woollyliberal on Nov 13, 2021 20:41:41 GMT
The poll shows Labour taking the lead for the first time this year(with this pollster). I like that this was so baked in to your thinking that you're disappointed that it is only be a bit.
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Post by justin124 on Nov 13, 2021 21:32:26 GMT
With the Greens recorded at 7% Labour could reasonably expect to poll circa 40% in a GE.
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Opinium
Nov 13, 2021 21:41:42 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 13, 2021 21:41:42 GMT
The poll shows Labour taking the lead for the first time this year(with this pollster). I like that this was so baked in to your thinking that you're disappointed that it is only be a bit. Well, it is entirely within M.O.E of the last so taking the lead is symbolic more than substantive
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Opinium
Nov 13, 2021 22:03:52 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 13, 2021 22:03:52 GMT
With the Greens recorded at 7% Labour could reasonably expect to poll circa 40% in a GE. You're being super optimistic imo
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Opinium
Nov 13, 2021 22:28:09 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 13, 2021 22:28:09 GMT
The poll shows Labour taking the lead for the first time this year(with this pollster). I like that this was so baked in to your thinking that you're disappointed that it is only be a bit. A bit of ramping going on about this one tonight. Big Labour lead type of ramping.
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Post by justin124 on Nov 14, 2021 0:24:16 GMT
With the Greens recorded at 7% Labour could reasonably expect to poll circa 40% in a GE. You're being super optimistic imo I am not an optimist by nature but if polls at a GE show a neck and neck race , I really do not see a 7% Green vote . Probably circa half would switch to Labour to defeat the Tories.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 14, 2021 0:35:14 GMT
You're being super optimistic imo I am not an optimist by nature but if polls at a GE show a neck and neck race , I really do not see a 7% Green vote . Probably circa half would switch to Labour to defeat the Tories. Or not even have a Green candidate to vote for; 2019 was the first time they’ve stood in two of the three Stoke seats, and they may be struggling to repeat that as their perennial candidate has sadly been diagnosed with Alzheimer’s.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 14, 2021 0:38:30 GMT
That really wasn’t worth the ramping.
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