johng
Labour
Posts: 4,510
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Post by johng on May 4, 2021 19:55:00 GMT
Fair commentary by Chris Curtis.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,133
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Post by Jack on May 15, 2021 19:24:22 GMT
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Post by justin124 on May 29, 2021 19:50:55 GMT
Con 42% (-2) Lab 36% (+5) LD 6% (-2) Grn 5% (-1) SNP 5% (-)
May 27th - 28th.
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Post by gibbon on May 29, 2021 20:05:42 GMT
A difference from other polls. Conservative lead down and Labour up. With tactical voting a possible upset at Chesham and Amersham and a Labour hold in Batley. If that happens then will the Tories really want a by-election in Delyn?
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on May 29, 2021 20:21:13 GMT
Con 42% (-2) Lab 36% (+5) LD 6% (-2) Grn 5% (-1) SNP 5% (-) May 27th - 28th. I did this survey (I presume) on Thursday and there was also a lot about Johnson/Cummings/Hancock and handling of the pandemic.
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Post by gibbon on May 29, 2021 21:08:23 GMT
Is tgis a rogue poll or a reaction to Cummings and the possibility that the restrictions will carry on after 21 June? If on 14 June we are told that the restrictions will still be in force then how will that affect Chesham and Amersham on 17 June and Batley and Spen on 1 July? An increase in support for Labour, however modest, will upset Corbynistas.
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Post by independentukip on May 29, 2021 21:48:01 GMT
Is tgis a rogue poll or a reaction to Cummings and the possibility that the restrictions will carry on after 21 June? If on 14 June we are told that the restrictions will still be in force then how will that affect Chesham and Amersham on 17 June and Batley and Spen on 1 July? An increase in support for Labour, however modest, will upset Corbynistas. Everyone should know that virtually nothing will change on 21st June even if the regime claim they've reached the end of the opening up process. But it would be a tad strange if reneging on 21st June leads to increased support for Labour who want more restrictions misery and oppression than the Tories.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on May 29, 2021 22:21:34 GMT
Is tgis a rogue poll or a reaction to Cummings and the possibility that the restrictions will carry on after 21 June? If on 14 June we are told that the restrictions will still be in force then how will that affect Chesham and Amersham on 17 June and Batley and Spen on 1 July? An increase in support for Labour, however modest, will upset Corbynistas. Everyone should know that virtually nothing will change on 21st June even if the regime claim they've reached the end of the opening up process. But it would be a tad strange if reneging on 21st June leads to increased support for Labour who want more restrictions misery and oppression than the Tories. It could be argued that had the government followed the urging of Labour and put India on the Red travel list at the same time as it did Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan, i.e. two weeks before it actually did, the variant would not have had that added time in which to become as prevalent and there would have been no need to postpone the 21 June easing. Equally it plays into the Cummings narrative of chaos in Downing Street and Johnson not prioritising the health of the citizenry. That might not translate to increased support for anybody else, but it may depress Conservative enthusiasm leading to a chunk of voters either staying at home, or potential switchers not taking the plunge and deciding “better the devil you know”. Just in Batley it’s not impossible to imagine the Pakistani community feeling that there remains favouritism towards India, which is a sense of grievance that’s already pretty prevalent.
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Opinium
May 29, 2021 23:39:50 GMT
via mobile
Post by Merseymike on May 29, 2021 23:39:50 GMT
Everyone should know that virtually nothing will change on 21st June even if the regime claim they've reached the end of the opening up process. But it would be a tad strange if reneging on 21st June leads to increased support for Labour who want more restrictions misery and oppression than the Tories. It could be argued that had the government followed the urging of Labour and put India on the Red travel list at the same time as it did Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan, i.e. two weeks before it actually did, the variant would not have had that added time in which to become as prevalent and there would have been no need to postpone the 21 June easing. Equally it plays into the Cummings narrative of chaos in Downing Street and Johnson not prioritising the health of the citizenry. That might not translate to increased support for anybody else, but it may depress Conservative enthusiasm leading to a chunk of voters either staying at home, or potential switchers not taking the plunge and deciding “better the devil you know”. Just in Batley it’s not impossible to imagine the Pakistani community feeling that there remains favouritism towards India, which is a sense of grievance that’s already pretty prevalent. The Asian community in Batley is Indian Muslim, from Gujarati origin
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on May 30, 2021 0:10:42 GMT
It could be argued that had the government followed the urging of Labour and put India on the Red travel list at the same time as it did Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan, i.e. two weeks before it actually did, the variant would not have had that added time in which to become as prevalent and there would have been no need to postpone the 21 June easing. Equally it plays into the Cummings narrative of chaos in Downing Street and Johnson not prioritising the health of the citizenry. That might not translate to increased support for anybody else, but it may depress Conservative enthusiasm leading to a chunk of voters either staying at home, or potential switchers not taking the plunge and deciding “better the devil you know”. Just in Batley it’s not impossible to imagine the Pakistani community feeling that there remains favouritism towards India, which is a sense of grievance that’s already pretty prevalent. The Asian community in Batley is Indian Muslim, from Gujarati origin Which means the blame still somewhat applies as Modi and his BJP aren’t exactly popular amongst any South Asian Muslim community, so that same sense of preferential treatment for Hindus expressed through “appeasement” (not the best word, but my mind’s gone blank) of Modi and the BJP is still present.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 30, 2021 7:47:03 GMT
It could be argued that had the government followed the urging of Labour and put India on the Red travel list at the same time as it did Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan, i.e. two weeks before it actually did, the variant would not have had that added time in which to become as prevalent and there would have been no need to postpone the 21 June easing. Equally it plays into the Cummings narrative of chaos in Downing Street and Johnson not prioritising the health of the citizenry. That might not translate to increased support for anybody else, but it may depress Conservative enthusiasm leading to a chunk of voters either staying at home, or potential switchers not taking the plunge and deciding “better the devil you know”. Just in Batley it’s not impossible to imagine the Pakistani community feeling that there remains favouritism towards India, which is a sense of grievance that’s already pretty prevalent. The Asian community in Batley is Indian Muslim, from Gujarati origin It's actually about half and half Indian and Pakistani
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on May 30, 2021 8:40:04 GMT
Con 42% (-2) Lab 36% (+5) LD 6% (-2) Grn 5% (-1) SNP 5% (-) May 27th - 28th. I did this survey (I presume) on Thursday and there was also a lot about Johnson/Cummings/Hancock and handling of the pandemic. Did those questions come before or after the voting intention question?
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Opinium
May 30, 2021 8:41:41 GMT
via mobile
Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2021 8:41:41 GMT
The Asian community in Batley is Indian Muslim, from Gujarati origin It's actually about half and half Indian and Pakistani It may well be more equal now though I remember when we recruited a trainee housing adviser from the Asian community we specified Gujerati speaking skills. I think the Heckmondwike Asians are more likely to be Pakistani origin.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on May 30, 2021 9:16:50 GMT
I did this survey (I presume) on Thursday and there was also a lot about Johnson/Cummings/Hancock and handling of the pandemic. Did those questions come before or after the voting intention question? It would be unusual for the VI questions not to come first (and if not, this is usually clearly stated)
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on May 30, 2021 9:22:00 GMT
Did those questions come before or after the voting intention question? It would be unusual for the VI questions not to come first (and if not, this is usually clearly stated) Indeed, and I would be very disappointed in Opinium if that wasn't the case here.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on May 30, 2021 9:28:29 GMT
I did this survey (I presume) on Thursday and there was also a lot about Johnson/Cummings/Hancock and handling of the pandemic. Did those questions come before or after the voting intention question? After, and it also asked how closely, if it all, you’d followed Cummings’ hearings. I was mentioning it just to point out that there was probably more data to come.
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Post by gibbon on May 30, 2021 10:29:48 GMT
If Johnson continues to protect Hancock and we are asked to accept that Hancock inherited in 2019 a Government department that had no plans to deal with a pandemic surely questions need to be asked about his predecessor, Jeremy Hunt who is Chair of the Health Select Committee. Is it appropriate he should be securitizing his successor who has inherited a mess of Hunt's making? The net widens. How may this affect voting intentions.
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Post by justin124 on Jun 12, 2021 19:03:37 GMT
Con 43% +1 Lab 34% -2 Green 7% +2 Lib Dem 6 ±0 10-11 Jun; change since 27-28 May
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Post by robert1 on Jun 12, 2021 19:08:40 GMT
Con 43 (+1) Lab 34 (-2) LD 6 = Grn 7 (+2) Fieldwork 10-11th June
Justin got there first.
Tories not back to previous levels with this pollster. Greens overtake LDs in another poll.
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Post by justin124 on Jun 12, 2021 19:45:08 GMT
Only 5 months ago Opinium showed Labour ahead.The pollster is now showing the same Tory lead as just post Easter. In itself , this poll does not imply a Tory gain at Batley&Spen - indeed it shows a small swing to Labour of 1.35% compared with December 2019 which should indicate an increased Labour majority in terms of vote share. If,however, the seat is lost, Starmer will be toast - all his authority will be destroyed.
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