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Opinium
Jun 8, 2024 19:06:45 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 8, 2024 19:06:45 GMT
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 8, 2024 19:12:53 GMT
I wonder at what point the Con-LD gap becomes more important than the Lab-Con gap in determining how many seats the Cons end up with. There'll be a sweet spot for maimum damage, I'm sure. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Opinium
Jun 8, 2024 19:38:37 GMT
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Post by cogload on Jun 8, 2024 19:38:37 GMT
Another 4 weeks of poll ramping.. 🙄
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Opinium
Jun 8, 2024 19:40:39 GMT
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Post by observer on Jun 8, 2024 19:40:39 GMT
Is the Reform surge faltering? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 8, 2024 21:48:03 GMT
I think Opinium don't prompt for Reform UK, so their polling is substantually down on the companies which do.
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Post by redtony on Jun 9, 2024 21:06:53 GMT
do they prompt for labour
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Post by Penddu on Jun 10, 2024 11:57:51 GMT
The Conservatives have asked pollsters not to prompt for them.. In the hope that their ratings might improve...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2024 10:50:31 GMT
The SNP would drop to 17 seats, with the Tories gaining three, Lib Dems adding one, and Labour gaining the rest.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 11, 2024 11:09:30 GMT
The SNP would drop to 17 seats, with the Tories gaining three, Lib Dems adding one, and Labour gaining the rest. Seats (+/- 2019 notionals: Lab: 29 (+28) SNP: 22 (-26) LD: 5 (+3) Con: 1 (-5) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2024 11:15:35 GMT
The SNP would drop to 17 seats, with the Tories gaining three, Lib Dems adding one, and Labour gaining the rest. Seats (+/- 2019 notionals: Lab: 29 (+28) SNP: 22 (-26) LD: 5 (+3) Con: 1 (-5)I believe that, based on the shift from 2019, the Conservatives would win Aberdeenshire North & Moray East; Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine; Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock; Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk; Dumfries & Galloway; Dumfriesshire, Clydedale & Tweeddale; Gordon & Buchan, and Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey, and get close in Aberdeen South; Angus & Perthshire Glens and Perth & Kinross-shire. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jun 11, 2024 11:21:57 GMT
Seats (+/- 2019 notionals: Lab: 29 (+28) SNP: 22 (-26) LD: 5 (+3) Con: 1 (-5)I believe that, based on the shift from 2019, the Conservatives would win Aberdeenshire North & Moray East; Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine; Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock; Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk; Dumfries & Galloway; Dumfriesshire, Clydedale & Tweeddale; Gordon & Buchan, and Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey, and get close in Aberdeen South; Angus & Perthshire Glens and Perth & Kinross-shire. But SNP and Tories are both down 11% compared with 2019 - ie zero swing! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2024 11:32:26 GMT
I believe that, based on the shift from 2019, the Conservatives would win Aberdeenshire North & Moray East; Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine; Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock; Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk; Dumfries & Galloway; Dumfriesshire, Clydedale & Tweeddale; Gordon & Buchan, and Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey, and get close in Aberdeen South; Angus & Perthshire Glens and Perth & Kinross-shire. But SNP and Tories are both down 11% compared with 2019 - ie zero swing! With zero swing, I think the Conservatives would win six seats (ANME; AWK; BRS, D&G, DCT; G&B). |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 11, 2024 12:02:29 GMT
Don't want to be "that" person (OK, maybe I do) but we have a Scottish Polls thread on here  |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Opinium
Jun 15, 2024 17:17:32 GMT
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Post by cogload on Jun 15, 2024 17:17:32 GMT
Poll this evening. There are two numbers floating around at the moment:
Labour 40%
LD 12%.
The rest will be revealed later no doubt.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 15, 2024 19:00:40 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 22, 2024 19:06:57 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 23, 2024 11:28:41 GMT
20% with Opinium's methodology is pretty horrendous for the Tories, no question.
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Post by batman on Jun 23, 2024 21:54:42 GMT
there really is almost nothing to encourage them at the moment. Other than the comfort that it will all be over in a few days.
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Post by arnieg on Jun 23, 2024 22:36:10 GMT
there really is almost nothing to encourage them at the moment. Other than the comfort that it will all be over in a few days. To be followed by the peace and tranquility of the leadership election  |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 23, 2024 22:42:46 GMT
there really is almost nothing to encourage them at the moment. Other than the comfort that it will all be over in a few days. To be followed by the peace and tranquility of the leadership election The Deep Deep peace of a party infight after the hurly burly of a General Election. |
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