Opinium

[European Lefty]

Reminds me of something I read about a study in the Netherlands that found being poor makes you more left-wing and being worried about becoming poor makes you more right-wing

[European Lefty]

May 28, 2022 18:57:51 GMT jamie said:

Interesting. Feels a bit obvious that your financial situation significantly impacts your voting behaviour, but the discussion around ‘is class politics dead?’ may lead you to think otherwise.

I'd love to see this done on 2019 votes. I suspect Labour have benefitted recently from a large swing amongst people who are "coping"

[aargauer]

May 28, 2022 19:12:21 GMT European Lefty said:

Reminds me of something I read about a study in the Netherlands that found being poor makes you more left-wing and being worried about becoming poor makes you more right-wing

I think it's a bit of a chicken and egg situation. Those with a right wing mindset on average prioritise earning money in their life choices (eg going for more employable degrees), although being well off undoubtedly also makes people more conservative minded.

[timmullen1]

Headline numbers:

[jamie]

May 28, 2022 19:13:25 GMT European Lefty said:

I'd love to see this done on 2019 votes. I suspect Labour have benefitted recently from a large swing amongst people who are "coping"

In the thread he shows that Labour has got the biggest swing among ‘Coping’ and the least among ‘Comfortable’. Given the margin of error and the fact the category composition will have significantly changed from 2019, im not sure how useful a comparison can be. 

[batman]

so that's sampled almost entirely after Sunak's announcement. It doesn't seem to be having, so far, any impact on voting intention. Possibly when households actually receive the money it may relieve the Tories' position a bit, but a lot of water is likely to flow under the bridge by that time.

[Adam in Stroud]

The fairly persistent 6-8% figure for the Greens could be significant. (2.7% at 2019 GE and 1.6% in 2017 GE, for reference.)

I suspect it reflects (a) genuine increased interest/support for environmental policies, especially as new cohorts of voters come on stream, and (b) lack of enthusiasm for both Starmer and the LDs among some left-of-centre voters, some of which is quite sticky (i.e. Corbynite) but some is just due to failure to grab the imagination by Starmer and the LDs generally.

But if it breaks tactically for Tory challengers - and I think Green voters are quite prone to "Progressive Alliance" attitudes - then there is another five or so percentage points that could quite easily go to Lab, LD, SNP and PC when minds are concentrated by a GE campaign.

[mattbewilson]

If Australia is anything to go by where the greens have had a break through in a majoritarian voting system it may indicate direction of travel. Particularly if you include the teal independents who are green conservatives.

[Merseymike]

May 28, 2022 21:17:02 GMT mattbewilson said:

If Australia is anything to go by where the greens have had a break through in a majoritarian voting system it may indicate direction of travel. Particularly if you include the teal independents who are green conservatives.

From the two I have heard interviewed I'd describe them as centrist rather than conservative

[European Lefty]

May 28, 2022 19:56:25 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

The fairly persistent 6-8% figure for the Greens could be significant. (2.7% at 2019 GE and 1.6% in 2017 GE, for reference.)

I suspect it reflects (a) genuine increased interest/support for environmental policies, especially as new cohorts of voters come on stream, and (b) lack of enthusiasm for both Starmer and the LDs among some left-of-centre voters, some of which is quite sticky (i.e. Corbynite) but some is just due to failure to grab the imagination by Starmer and the LDs generally.

But if it breaks tactically for Tory challengers - and I think Green voters are quite prone to "Progressive Alliance" attitudes - then there is another five or so percentage points that could quite easily go to Lab, LD, SNP and PC when minds are concentrated by a GE campaign.

I still think the "Green Tory" is an under-recognised phenomenon and I wouldn't be surprised if c. 1-2% of the Green vote actually came from the Tories, and might go back there in a GE

[jamie]

May 28, 2022 22:12:31 GMT European Lefty said:

I still think the "Green Tory" is an under-recognised phenomenon and I wouldn't be surprised if c. 1-2% of the Green vote actually came from the Tories, and might go back there in a GE

I ran the numbers late last year in this thread, and about 10% of the current Green vote comes from the Conservatives, so only around 0.5-1% of voters are 'Green Tories' and its not hard to imagine that a lot of these voters prefer a Labour government to the current Conservative government (see also a lot of current Tory-Lib Dem switchers, or the reverse for Labour-Brexit Party switchers in 2019). The Greens vote will probably be squeezed come the general election and I would expect a lot more of it to go Labour/Lib Dem than Conservative. 

[timmullen1]

[clyde1998]

Jun 11, 2022 18:57:43 GMT timmullen1 said:

Full results:

I make it the highest Lib Dem figure in an Opinium poll this parliamentary term.

[Merseymike]

The accompanying Observer article
www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/11/poll-says-keir-starmer-worse-choice-for-pm-than-boris-johnson

I really think Labour ought to be doing better. Starmer is not making impact.

[batman]

their polls are out of line with everyone else's though. Other polls find the opposite.

[aargauer]

May 28, 2022 22:12:31 GMT European Lefty said:

May 28, 2022 19:56:25 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

The fairly persistent 6-8% figure for the Greens could be significant. (2.7% at 2019 GE and 1.6% in 2017 GE, for reference.)

I suspect it reflects (a) genuine increased interest/support for environmental policies, especially as new cohorts of voters come on stream, and (b) lack of enthusiasm for both Starmer and the LDs among some left-of-centre voters, some of which is quite sticky (i.e. Corbynite) but some is just due to failure to grab the imagination by Starmer and the LDs generally.

But if it breaks tactically for Tory challengers - and I think Green voters are quite prone to "Progressive Alliance" attitudes - then there is another five or so percentage points that could quite easily go to Lab, LD, SNP and PC when minds are concentrated by a GE campaign.

I still think the "Green Tory" is an under-recognised phenomenon and I wouldn't be surprised if c. 1-2% of the Green vote actually came from the Tories, and might go back there in a GE

Absolutely agreed. Relatively apolitical sorts often see them as another Lib Dems rather than a radical left of labour option.

[casualobserver]

Jun 11, 2022 19:14:36 GMT batman said:

their polls are out of line with everyone else's though. Other polls find the opposite.

I know what you mean. Just too many of these ‘outlier’ polls not painting the picture you want to see.

[bridgyoldboy]

Jun 11, 2022 19:14:36 GMT batman said:

their polls are out of line with everyone else's though. Other polls find the opposite.

It’s related to their policy of seeking to predict how many former Tory voters will return to the fold. This approach was adopted about about 3 months ago and immediately results in the Labour lead reduced from 6-8 points down to 2 or 3. Hence why it’s out of kilter with the other polling organisations

[batman]

Jun 11, 2022 20:05:32 GMT casualobserver said:

Jun 11, 2022 19:14:36 GMT batman said:

their polls are out of line with everyone else's though. Other polls find the opposite.

I know what you mean. Just too many of these ‘outlier’ polls not painting the picture you want to see.

good try but the other companies don't have these findings. I'm all in favour of accurate polls, not ones which are better for my party. These polls might be accurate, or they might not, the point is that no other pollsters have Labour's lead that narrow, including some who are not by any stretch of the imagination noted for their pro-Labour house effect.

[European Lefty]

Jun 11, 2022 19:36:25 GMT aargauer said:

May 28, 2022 22:12:31 GMT European Lefty said:

I still think the "Green Tory" is an under-recognised phenomenon and I wouldn't be surprised if c. 1-2% of the Green vote actually came from the Tories, and might go back there in a GE

Absolutely agreed. Relatively apolitical sorts often see them as another Lib Dems rather than a radical left of labour option.

Well in a sense they are and becoming more so. But the Greens that most of the electorate get a local elections are a very different party to the one they get at general elections