ICM

[Devonian]

Peter Kelner on why he thinks the ICM poll is wrong

yougov.co.uk/news/2013/07/16/are-labour-and-tories-really-level-pegging/

[Deleted]

ICM

L 35
C 32
LD 14
UKIP 10

back into rough line with the rest after what we can say was a rogue poll last month

[Sibboleth]

The Grauniad's angle on their own poll is most curious.

[East Anglian Lefty]

There are several counter-intuitive things about that poll. Strong increases across the board on economic competence, whereas Labour hasn't made any big interventions on that in the past couple of months. A big increase for UKIP when everybody else sees them slowly dropping back. And voting intention moving in a different direction to the below the line indicators.

I suspect most of that is because the previous ICM poll was a rogue, but I'm unsure how much all of these changes are a return to the mean.

[The Bishop]

Aug 12, 2013 22:36:23 GMT Sibboleth said:

The Grauniad's angle on their own poll is most curious.

Not so much so since Rusbridger's "year zero" of 1 May 2010, unfortunately.

Re EAL's comments - last month was a screamingly obvious rogue (not least the UKIP figure) which hasn't stopped the paper banging on about it as recently as this weekend

[The Bishop]

Basically, it is to avoid admitting they backed the wrong horse last time at all costs.

[Deleted]

time to stop that now ...

[The Bishop]

Aug 13, 2013 11:50:10 GMT @trident said:

The other thing that really annoys me on their politics pages is the uniformly, stridently Spartist tone of the comment threads at the bottom of each article. Every time the poll rating drops by 1% there is a load of ranting about how this is because Miliband is betraying socialism and the solution is either a sharp left turn back to what they see as 'Real Labour' (i.e. Bennism of the 1981 vintage) or to form yet another hard left micro-party.

Heh, I sometimes have a bit of fun at the expense of those types (especially the "let's start a new party" merchants) there

[Sibboleth]

Aug 13, 2013 9:38:49 GMT The Bishop said:

Not so much so since Rusbridger's "year zero" of 1 May 2010, unfortunately.

Thus 'most curious'...

[greenchristian]

Aug 13, 2013 10:10:16 GMT The Bishop said:

Basically, it is to avoid admitting they backed the wrong horse last time at all costs.

Surely there's an easier way to do that (i.e. just never talk about who they endorsed last time).

[Deleted]

but everyone else does from the liberal left which is supposed to be their main readership.

[Deleted]

It's a paper whose influence stretches beyond its readership - even CCHQ recognise this and accordingly have always sought good relations with its political team. In his evidence to Leveson Andy Coulson cited the Guardian as a paper he had always got on well with while working for the Tories - ostensibly ironic given the context of the inquiry, less so when you compare the tone of its political coverage to that of its investigative coverage.

[johnr]

Bear in mind, its a source for speech-writers for the Cabinet....

[Deleted]

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
Today's ICM Wisdom Index has LAB dropping 11% since end June
Con+2, 31
Lab-11, 32
LD+1, 16
UKIP-1, 13

make up your own mind on this one ??

[The Bishop]

That implies figures of 29-43-15-14 last time - which adds up to 101. Shurely shome mishtake??

[marksenior]

Corrected figures/changes

Con 31 +2
Lab 32 -2
LD 16 +1
UKIP 12 -1

[Deleted]

Aug 16, 2013 17:12:21 GMT The Bishop said:

That implies figures of 29-43-15-14 last time - which adds up to 101. Shurely shome mishtake??

Each number is rounded to the nearest whole so it doesn't have to add up to exactly 100.

[The Bishop]

Yes, I know this - and did over three decades ago. Congratulations for missing the point in genuinely spectacular fashion

[erlend]

It's a rogue. LD too high, Lab too low. I could see it as a prediction of 2015 but not how people would vote tomorrow.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Just want to make sure everyone realises this is a 'wisdom index' poll not a public opinion poll.