Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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ICM
Feb 7, 2018 15:53:09 GMT
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2018 15:53:09 GMT
I was polled by ICM last night on my landline at home, so I assume that there is another poll in the works. It included a question about whether I thought that Jeremy Corbyn was an extremist.... "O For a Thousand Tongues To Sing..."
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,125
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ICM
Feb 21, 2018 14:43:40 GMT
Post by Jack on Feb 21, 2018 14:43:40 GMT
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ICM
Feb 21, 2018 15:14:03 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Feb 21, 2018 15:14:03 GMT
Both main parties continuing to put on support at the expense of everyone else. I know some people would like politics to be a straight battle between two parties and they must be pleased at the way the polls are moving.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,125
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ICM
Mar 6, 2018 14:05:51 GMT
Post by Jack on Mar 6, 2018 14:05:51 GMT
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ICM
Mar 6, 2018 14:11:48 GMT
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 6, 2018 14:11:48 GMT
I wonder where those voting changes have come from. Green Surge!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2018 17:04:36 GMT
Every ICM poll since the GE has been within margin of error. It's impressive.
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ICM
Mar 6, 2018 18:04:07 GMT
Post by greenhert on Mar 6, 2018 18:04:07 GMT
And unlike YouGov it is finally recognising the true levels of support for UKIP now; they have fallen below that of the Greens.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2018 18:47:59 GMT
And unlike YouGov it is finally recognising the true levels of support for UKIP now; they have fallen below that of the Greens. Now that really is jumping the shark.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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ICM
Mar 7, 2018 7:19:48 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2018 7:19:48 GMT
And unlike YouGov it is finally recognising the true levels of support for UKIP now; they have fallen below that of the Greens. The Greens are now sitting on the dizzy heights of 3% of the vote? WOW, best be ready for sweeping gains then. (Factoring in an inherent ±3% margin of error there is a fair chance that you are still neck-and-neck with UKIP.) Margin won’t be +\- 3 at those low levels, but rather lower. Margin of error depends on actual levels of support. Very near 0 (or 100) the margin decreases. As a simple example, if the sample size is 1000, you would be very surprised indeed to find 30 supporters of the Wessex regionalist party.
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ICM
Mar 7, 2018 17:07:28 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Mar 7, 2018 17:07:28 GMT
These figures are actually no change. Since they are rounded to whole numbers, in each case the changes could be just one vote!
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 21, 2018 11:14:05 GMT
Maybe of most interest is that this survey puts UKIP at just 1% - its lowest in any poll for at least seven years and possibly longer.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,177
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ICM
Mar 21, 2018 11:20:35 GMT
tamar likes this
Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 21, 2018 11:20:35 GMT
Maybe of most interest is that this survey puts UKIP at just 1% - its lowest in any poll for at least seven years and possibly longer. The polls may be catching up with reality here. Also not looking great for the Greens. But this is what local council by-elections have been telling us for a while.
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ICM
Mar 21, 2018 11:26:02 GMT
froome likes this
Post by greenchristian on Mar 21, 2018 11:26:02 GMT
Maybe of most interest is that this survey puts UKIP at just 1% - its lowest in any poll for at least seven years and possibly longer. The polls may be catching up with reality here. Also not looking great for the Greens. But this is what local council by-elections have been telling us for a while. Though we have won more council by-elections in the last 12 months than in any previous 12-month span, so the picture for us from by-elections is better than our aggregate vote share would suggest. The overall picture of where we're at is that our core vote is back to what it was pre-#GreenSurge. But outside of a couple of areas (Norwich, Oxford, maybe Bristol and London) I see no reason to think we'll be struggling in our target wards. Very few of those voteshares were based on the national picture.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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ICM
Mar 21, 2018 12:01:13 GMT
Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2018 12:01:13 GMT
Highest Conservative vote share since the general election: The Putin effect?
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ICM
Mar 21, 2018 12:03:21 GMT
Post by beastofbedfordshire on Mar 21, 2018 12:03:21 GMT
Highest Conservative vote share since the general election: The Putin effect? He isn't such a bad guy after all
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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ICM
Mar 21, 2018 12:49:44 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2018 12:49:44 GMT
He isn't such a bad guy after all wouldnt go that far
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Post by froome on Mar 21, 2018 13:29:45 GMT
The polls may be catching up with reality here. Also not looking great for the Greens. But this is what local council by-elections have been telling us for a while. Though we have won more council by-elections in the last 12 months than in any previous 12-month span, so the picture for us from by-elections is better than our aggregate vote share would suggest. The overall picture of where we're at is that our core vote is back to what it was pre-#GreenSurge. But outside of a couple of areas (Norwich, Oxford, maybe Bristol and London) I see no reason to think we'll be struggling in our target wards. Very few of those voteshares were based on the national picture. As he says. And the polls tell us what people may do at a general election, which has little relevance to what happens in local elections.
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ICM
Mar 21, 2018 15:13:39 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Mar 21, 2018 15:13:39 GMT
No significant changes. Full stop.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,177
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ICM
Mar 23, 2018 11:43:26 GMT
Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 23, 2018 11:43:26 GMT
The polls may be catching up with reality here. Also not looking great for the Greens. But this is what local council by-elections have been telling us for a while. Though we have won more council by-elections in the last 12 months than in any previous 12-month span, so the picture for us from by-elections is better than our aggregate vote share would suggest. The overall picture of where we're at is that our core vote is back to what it was pre-#GreenSurge. But outside of a couple of areas (Norwich, Oxford, maybe Bristol and London) I see no reason to think we'll be struggling in our target wards. Very few of those voteshares were based on the national picture. The reason I say what I do, is that while there may be the odd flash in the pan for you, overall I notice the absence of Green candidates where they've stood before, and declining vote share all over the country where they do. I contrast this with our Lib Dem record, where we're returning to contests where we've been absent, and generally increased our vote share. And I think we have a few more gains to celebrate that you do. There's an awfully long way to go for us, of course, but I think we're facing in the right direction. Which is more that anyone can say for UKIP, who are disappearing from the scene very fast indeed. Not that I'm at all sad about that.
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ICM
Mar 24, 2018 15:13:31 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Mar 24, 2018 15:13:31 GMT
The general pattern of by-elections in the last six months is the collapse of the UKIP vote and the collapse of the Green vote, with just a handful of exceptions. The Liberal Democrat vote is as variable as it has ever been.
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