The Bishop
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Jan 27, 2018 11:39:04 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Jan 27, 2018 11:39:04 GMT
That poll was taken a bit ago, and took some time to complete. The interesting thing, perhaps, is this is how polling in the "old days" was usually done.
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Deleted
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Jan 27, 2018 11:59:41 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2018 11:59:41 GMT
and quite a big sample as a result makes me wonder what impact did the weighting have on the raw data
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 28, 2018 11:19:55 GMT
The usual reminder at this point that a larger sample does not automatically equate to "more accurate".
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Jan 28, 2018 16:59:47 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Jan 28, 2018 16:59:47 GMT
The lull before the storm. One question: if these are genuine figures which will be replicated in real elections, why are the Tories so frightened of the forthcoming Council elections in May. (genuine question.
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J.G.Harston
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Jan 28, 2018 17:23:53 GMT
Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 28, 2018 17:23:53 GMT
The lull before the storm. One question: if these are genuine figures which will be replicated in real elections, why are the Tories so frightened of the forthcoming Council elections in May. (genuine question. Possibly because this year is a lull year between county council elections (last year) and county district elections (next year), so the majority of elections will be in by-thirds districts which are more likely to be urban and more likely to be Labour-leaning.
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Deleted
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Jan 28, 2018 17:35:46 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2018 17:35:46 GMT
I suspect the Tory vote will be lower in the locals than in the polls. In the county election 38% voted Tory compared with the 42.5% in the GE and around a third of Tories said they voted tactically in the GE
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Jan 28, 2018 17:46:25 GMT
Post by lancastrian on Jan 28, 2018 17:46:25 GMT
The lull before the storm. One question: if these are genuine figures which will be replicated in real elections, why are the Tories so frightened of the forthcoming Council elections in May. (genuine question. Possibly because this year is a lull year between county council elections (last year) and county district elections (next year), so the majority of elections will be in by-thirds districts which are more likely to be urban and more likely to be Labour-leaning. I 'd suggest 2 reasons - (1) London is up this year, and (2) the polls are substantially worse than in 2016 when the thirds seats last voted, and that turned out to be very similar to 2012, when Labour were up by double digits - which is not too far off where Survation currently are. I could easily see, no, I currently predict that the Tories will lose everything conceivably possible in London whilst making no headway in areas where they did less badly at the GE.
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Deleted
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Jan 28, 2018 18:14:29 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2018 18:14:29 GMT
I suppose that depends on the independent group
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Jan 28, 2018 19:32:02 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 28, 2018 19:32:02 GMT
I suspect the Tory vote will be lower in the locals than in the polls. In the county election 38% voted Tory compared with the 42.5% in the GE and around a third of Tories said they voted tactically in the GEDidn't know that - can you expand? - Source? - Do you mean one third of people who voted Tory in the GE did so tactically, or that one third of people who identify as Tory supporters voted tactically (for a non-Tory)? - In either case, do we know what was the non-Tory allegiance (e.g. UKIP voted tactically for Tory; or Tory voted tactically for LD, or whatever)?
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Deleted
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Jan 28, 2018 19:35:03 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2018 19:35:03 GMT
It was a Sky Data poll asking voters whether they thought their party of choice would be best for the country
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Deleted
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Jan 28, 2018 19:36:26 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2018 19:36:26 GMT
I believe there was a poll done by maybe ipsos or yougov which said half of ukip voters voted tory and a third stayed home
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Deleted
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Jan 28, 2018 19:41:31 GMT
Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2018 19:41:31 GMT
I believe there was a poll done by maybe ipsos or yougov which said half of ukip voters voted tory and a third stayed home
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ICM
Jan 28, 2018 19:44:06 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 28, 2018 19:44:06 GMT
Thanks: interesting at both local and national level if borne out.
1. In a disappointing GE for the Tories, a significant chunk of support was apparently from Kippers voting faute de mieux; possible further vote loss if seen to have failed to deliver Brexit; incentive for Labour not to firm up this vote by "betraying" Brexit.
2. I'd share your view that I don't see this vote turning out much in the locals; even in absence of a UKIP candidate the disaffected have less reason to vote tactically at lower levels of power.
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Deleted
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Jan 28, 2018 19:45:36 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2018 19:45:36 GMT
Yes I read that article. The only article by Mr Rentoul that doesnt wind me up
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Deleted
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Jan 28, 2018 22:29:15 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2018 22:29:15 GMT
Amazing how little small the Lib Dem core is - c. 2.5% of the electorate. Even some of that may be tactical.
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Jack
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Feb 6, 2018 14:25:20 GMT
Post by Jack on Feb 6, 2018 14:25:20 GMT
ANOTHER BORING POLL KLAXON.
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Feb 6, 2018 17:42:50 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Feb 6, 2018 17:42:50 GMT
The changes are boring, the overall situation isn't so much IMO.
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The Bishop
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Feb 7, 2018 11:45:52 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Feb 7, 2018 11:45:52 GMT
Every single ICM poll since the GE has remained within a rigid narrow band of Lab+2 to Con+2, that is a remarkable level of consistency.
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Feb 7, 2018 14:03:23 GMT
I was polled by ICM last night on my landline at home, so I assume that there is another poll in the works. It included a question about whether I thought that Jeremy Corbyn was an extremist.... .....and? He asked if it was a rhetorical question.
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Deleted
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Feb 7, 2018 15:42:49 GMT
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lefty likes this
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2018 15:42:49 GMT
I hope you told them you'd be voting Labour and 100% likely to vote at the nexr GE
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