YL
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Post by YL on Nov 25, 2022 9:29:45 GMT
I am fairly confident that if Labour get a big swing they will outperform UNS. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 25, 2022 9:31:19 GMT
I think this is under the new boundaries. The problem for labour is their voters are mostly urban and generally speaking urban constituencies are over represented while more rural ones are under represented. So while some Labour MPs will have to compete over seats as theirs vanish, some Tories will have the pick of two seats they could stand in |
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Nov 25, 2022 9:42:30 GMT
There's no 'Tory bias', rather it's more of an incumbency bias - although it depends on how each party's vote is distributed. Between 1997 and 2005, Labour held the advantage on UNS seat estimates when both main parties were level - since 2010 (I believe), that advantage is held by the Conservatives. IIRC, there tends to be larger swings in marginal seats than the national swing would imply. Labour would do significantly better than a eight seat majority if they were 15 points ahead. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 25, 2022 9:48:20 GMT
It's not a Conservative bias in the electoral system, it's an anti-Labour bias in Labour turnout. As in Bootle yesterday, Labour seats get won with 90% of the vote, Conservative seats get won with 45% of the vote. Resulting in "the Labour Vote" being huge, because they pile up and pile up in the seats they are already winning. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 25, 2022 9:52:21 GMT
There's no 'Tory bias', rather it's more of an incumbency bias - although it depends on how each party's vote is distributed. Between 1997 and 2005, Labour held the advantage on UNS seat estimates when both main parties were level - since 2010 (I believe), that advantage is held by the Conservatives. IIRC, there tends to be larger swings in marginal seats than the national swing would imply. Labour would do significantly better than a eight seat majority if they were 15 points ahead. under new Labour the party's distribution of votes was better than it is now |
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YL
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Post by YL on Nov 25, 2022 9:57:21 GMT
There's no 'Tory bias', rather it's more of an incumbency bias - although it depends on how each party's vote is distributed. Between 1997 and 2005, Labour held the advantage on UNS seat estimates when both main parties were level - since 2010 (I believe), that advantage is held by the Conservatives. IIRC, there tends to be larger swings in marginal seats than the national swing would imply. Labour would do significantly better than a eight seat majority if they were 15 points ahead. under new Labour the party's distribution of votes was better than it is now You mean better than in 2019, which was a really bad result in much of the country but a respectable result in certain types of urban area which were mostly already safe Labour. If there's a substantial swing to Labour it's not likely to be as big in areas where the result was OK then -- indeed if you apply UNS to some of the safest Labour seats the Tory vote would go negative -- so the distribution problem is very likely to improve. |
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Post by batman on Nov 25, 2022 10:04:03 GMT
Having said that, some of the bias that one can reasonably argue exists can also be reduced or ironed out altogether because constituencies are based on electorate, not turnout of actual voters. The Tories have a tendency to get their vote out rather better than do Labour (although at the moment one suspects that might be less the case) and this can result in Labour winning more seats without necessarily gaining a plurality of the vote. In particular, Tory voters in safe Tory seats are distinctly more apt to vote than Labour voters in safe Labour seats, in marginals it's often rather different.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 25, 2022 10:11:32 GMT
There's no 'Tory bias', rather it's more of an incumbency bias - although it depends on how each party's vote is distributed. Between 1997 and 2005, Labour held the advantage on UNS seat estimates when both main parties were level - since 2010 (I believe), that advantage is held by the Conservatives. IIRC, there tends to be larger swings in marginal seats than the national swing would imply. Labour would do significantly better than a eight seat majority if they were 15 points ahead. Years of Tory advantage 1950-1964,Oct 74,1983-1987,2015-2019,2024/5 ?, years of Lab advantage 1945,1966,1970,Feb 74,1979,1992-2010 |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 25, 2022 10:28:40 GMT
The simple fact is that the last GE was exceptionally, abnormally bad in terms of vote distribution for Labour - and assuming it will be like that *at all* next time is foolhardly given that even when Labour were doing poorly in the polls for much of 2021 they were still doing OK amongst 2019 LibDem voters whilst losing some left wing support to the Greens - in which sort of areas do you think each of those groups are likely to be found more?
But yes, assuming it will still happen if Labour wins an election by 15 points (more than 1997!) is verging on the asinine.
What a disingenuous, bad faith article.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 25, 2022 10:36:07 GMT
The simple fact is that the last GE was exceptionally, abnormally bad in terms of vote distribution for Labour - and assuming it will be like that *at all* next time is foolhardly given that even when Labour were doing poorly in the polls for much of 2021 they were still doing OK amongst 2019 LibDem voters whilst losing some left wing support to the Greens - which areas do you think each of those groups are likely to be found more? But yes, assuming it will still happen if Labour wins an election by 15 points (more than 1997!) is verging on the asinine. What a disingenuous, bad faith article. I thought it was more an article setting a benchmark of expectations albeit on the unrealistic UNS model |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 25, 2022 10:39:36 GMT
The simple fact is that the last GE was exceptionally, abnormally bad in terms of vote distribution for Labour - and assuming it will be like that *at all* next time is foolhardly given that even when Labour were doing poorly in the polls for much of 2021 they were still doing OK amongst 2019 LibDem voters whilst losing some left wing support to the Greens - which areas do you think each of those groups are likely to be found more? But yes, assuming it will still happen if Labour wins an election by 15 points (more than 1997!) is verging on the asinine. What a disingenuous, bad faith article. I thought it was more an article setting a benchmark of expectations albeit on the unrealistic UNS modelWhich is all a bit "but apart from that, Mrs Lincoln..." isn't it. Basically we should discard UNS for considering the next GE, given that the last was basically an "issue" election - something not really seen since the inter-war years. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 25, 2022 10:43:14 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 25, 2022 10:49:01 GMT
under new Labour the party's distribution of votes was better than it is now You mean better than in 2019, which was a really bad result in much of the country but a respectable result in certain types of urban area which were mostly already safe Labour. If there's a substantial swing to Labour it's not likely to be as big in areas where the result was OK then -- indeed if you apply UNS to some of the safest Labour seats the Tory vote would go negative -- so the distribution problem is very likely to improve. 2015, 2017, 2019, etc. take your pick. In every election labour and Tories have made gains off each other. Labour gained urban seats, Tories gained rural and suburban In 2015 Labour gained in Chester, Ilford, Brentford and Isleworth. Tories gained Derby North, Wrexham, Derbyshire North East. In 2017 Labour gained Kensington, Canterbury, Ipswich, Peterborough, Lincoln, Bristol, Reading, Stroud. Tories gained Copeland, Mansfield, Walsall. 2019 Labour gained Putney. Tories gained Bolsover, Bassettlaw, Wakefield, etc. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 25, 2022 10:59:57 GMT
You mean better than in 2019, which was a really bad result in much of the country but a respectable result in certain types of urban area which were mostly already safe Labour. If there's a substantial swing to Labour it's not likely to be as big in areas where the result was OK then -- indeed if you apply UNS to some of the safest Labour seats the Tory vote would go negative -- so the distribution problem is very likely to improve. 2015, 2017, 2019, etc. take your pick. In every election labour and Tories have made gains off each other. Labour gained urban seats, Tories gained rural and suburban In 2015 Labour gained in Chester, Ilford, Brentford and Isleworth. Tories gained Derby North, Wrexham, Derbyshire North East. In 2017 Labour gained Kensington, Canterbury, Ipswich, Peterborough, Lincoln, Bristol, Reading, Stroud. Tories gained Copeland, Mansfield, Walsall. 2019 Labour gained Putney. Tories gained Bolsover, Bassettlaw, Wakefield, etc. I think in 1966,1997 and 2005 the major party that lost seats failed to make any gains at all. |
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Post by islington on Nov 25, 2022 11:34:23 GMT
I am fairly confident that if Labour get a big swing they will outperform UNS. I agree and I responded to the PB discussion accordingly (actually recycling an old post from this site). |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 25, 2022 12:25:18 GMT
2015, 2017, 2019, etc. take your pick. In every election labour and Tories have made gains off each other. Labour gained urban seats, Tories gained rural and suburban In 2015 Labour gained in Chester, Ilford, Brentford and Isleworth. Tories gained Derby North, Wrexham, Derbyshire North East. In 2017 Labour gained Kensington, Canterbury, Ipswich, Peterborough, Lincoln, Bristol, Reading, Stroud. Tories gained Copeland, Mansfield, Walsall. 2019 Labour gained Putney. Tories gained Bolsover, Bassettlaw, Wakefield, etc. In 2015 the absolute support for Labour and the Conservatives stayed about the same and their only real source of improvement was 2 district sections of 2010 Lib Dems. That produced little change in seats and the flow depended on where the Lib Dem vote had come from in the first place/if they had positioned themselves as anti the incumbent party. In 2017 there was a decent swing to Labour overall which was based on a massive swing among remainers and a small swing against them among leavers. That produced the sort of swing map you would expect. In 2019 there was a massive swing to the Conservatives and it was most pronounced among leavers. This included the Conservatives getting a swing against Labour in the vast majority of remain voting seats (Putney was a freak gain). In each of those elections the parties made decisions about what sort of policies they would put forward, who they wanted to appeal to and what sort of ‘vibes’ they gave off. Labour clearly positioned itself more towards younger, remain voting, socially liberal voters and it’s coalition got relatively more dependent on them. The Conservatives, particularly in 2017 and 2019, positioned themselves towards older, leave voting, socially conservative and working class voters, and their coalition got more dependent on those voters. Looking forward, 2024 does not look to be a repeat of these elections (though things can change). Brexit has lost a lot of its salience and insofar as Labour is willing to even talk about it, they talk about how there will be little change under them. Economics has become more important given the cost of living crisis and the Conservatives appear fairly austere and unsympathetic to many in the public, unlike their more overt appeals to the ‘left behind’/‘just about managing’ groups in 2017/2019. As a consequence, the swing to Labour is strongest (and has been before Partygate nevermind Trussonomics) among older voters and leave voters, while weakest among younger voters and remain voters (basically gaining some of the Lib Dems and then losing a similar amount to the Greens). This is not entirely surprising given there’s a very big Conservative to Labour swing and there aren’t many young, remain voting Conservatives left, and the changing appeals to the parties are making has also had an impact. TLDR - Labour’s increasingly awful vote distribution is down to the positioning of the 2 major parties, and we are seeing a partial reversal of the trends we have seen over the past few elections due to both parties repositioning themselves as well as the fact it would be near impossible for the current very big swing to happen universally given the demographic/geographic divides that has grown in recent elections. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 25, 2022 12:29:36 GMT
Having said that, some of the bias that one can reasonably argue exists can also be reduced or ironed out altogether because constituencies are based on electorate, not turnout of actual voters. The Tories have a tendency to get their vote out rather better than do Labour (although at the moment one suspects that might be less the case) and this can result in Labour winning more seats without necessarily gaining a plurality of the vote. In particular, Tory voters in safe Tory seats are distinctly more apt to vote than Labour voters in safe Labour seats, in marginals it's often rather different. Yes, you can often find that Labour win their seats with 75% on a 50% turnout, Conservatives win their seats with 50% on a 75% turnout. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 25, 2022 12:35:37 GMT
Having said that, some of the bias that one can reasonably argue exists can also be reduced or ironed out altogether because constituencies are based on electorate, not turnout of actual voters. The Tories have a tendency to get their vote out rather better than do Labour (although at the moment one suspects that might be less the case) and this can result in Labour winning more seats without necessarily gaining a plurality of the vote. In particular, Tory voters in safe Tory seats are distinctly more apt to vote than Labour voters in safe Labour seats, in marginals it's often rather different. Yes, you can often find that Labour win their seats with 75% on a 50% turnout, Conservatives win their seats with 50% on a 75% turnout. There are factors on both sides which create bias and often offset each other eg Lab often favoured by smaller seats ,lower turnouts and Con by an efficient vote distribution and third parties having a larger presence in seats helped by them |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 25, 2022 12:57:38 GMT
2015, 2017, 2019, etc. take your pick. In every election labour and Tories have made gains off each other. Labour gained urban seats, Tories gained rural and suburban In 2015 Labour gained in Chester, Ilford, Brentford and Isleworth. Tories gained Derby North, Wrexham, Derbyshire North East. In 2017 Labour gained Kensington, Canterbury, Ipswich, Peterborough, Lincoln, Bristol, Reading, Stroud. Tories gained Copeland, Mansfield, Walsall. 2019 Labour gained Putney. Tories gained Bolsover, Bassettlaw, Wakefield, etc. In 2015 the absolute support for Labour and the Conservatives stayed about the same and their only real source of improvement was 2 district sections of 2010 Lib Dems. That produced little change in seats and the flow depended on where the Lib Dem vote had come from in the first place/if they had positioned themselves as anti the incumbent party. In 2017 there was a decent swing to Labour overall which was based on a massive swing among remainers and a small swing against them among leavers. That produced the sort of swing map you would expect. In 2019 there was a massive swing to the Conservatives and it was most pronounced among leavers. This included the Conservatives getting a swing against Labour in the vast majority of remain voting seats (Putney was a freak gain). In each of those elections the parties made decisions about what sort of policies they would put forward, who they wanted to appeal to and what sort of ‘vibes’ they gave off. Labour clearly positioned itself more towards younger, remain voting, socially liberal voters and it’s coalition got relatively more dependent on them. The Conservatives, particularly in 2017 and 2019, positioned themselves towards older, leave voting, socially conservative and working class voters, and their coalition got more dependent on those voters. Looking forward, 2024 does not look to be a repeat of these elections (though things can change). Brexit has lost a lot of its salience and insofar as Labour is willing to even talk about it, they talk about how there will be little change under them. Economics has become more important given the cost of living crisis and the Conservatives appear fairly austere and unsympathetic to many in the public, unlike their more overt appeals to the ‘left behind’/‘just about managing’ groups in 2017/2019. As a consequence, the swing to Labour is strongest (and has been before Partygate nevermind Trussonomics) among older voters and leave voters, while weakest among younger voters and remain voters (basically gaining some of the Lib Dems and then losing a similar amount to the Greens). This is not entirely surprising given there’s a very big Conservative to Labour swing and there aren’t many young, remain voting Conservatives left, and the changing appeals to the parties are making has also had an impact. TLDR - Labour’s increasingly awful vote distribution is down to the positioning of the 2 major parties, and we are seeing a partial reversal of the trends we have seen over the past few elections due to both parties repositioning themselves as well as the fact it would be near impossible for the current very big swing to happen universally given the demographic/geographic divides that has grown in recent elections. I'd suggest the Labour Party's move toward accepting brexit actually says what kind of platform the party is hoping the next election will be about. The labour party has gone further I think than most people would have thought. With all the proponent defenders of freedom of movement now supporters of a point based system. A leader fairly critical of ID cards when he was director of public prosecutions now a proponent. I'll put my hands up and say I never thought the labour party would advocate for a point based system. Labour want the next election to be about brexit. Labour want to skewer the Tories on immigration. Labour want people to see how the Tories have failed to deliver the number one priority of brexitiers; controlling our borders. Labour want people to believe labour will deliver on brexit and immigration |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 16, 2022 11:21:23 GMT
Think this lot have a new survey out - and actually showing Labour's lead increasing, in contrast to some other pollsters.
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