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Post by redtony on Aug 25, 2022 20:28:23 GMT
The toeis have only one 2 elections in the last 30 years
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 25, 2022 20:34:13 GMT
The toeis have only one 2 elections in the last 30 years As in won outright? True, but in two others they've come out as the largest party and led the government. And my guess is that you were speaking your post into your phone, which often has, as they say, hilarious consequences. My wife likes to do this with WhatsApp messages and a translation service may be needed sometimes. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 25, 2022 21:05:35 GMT
And, for however great or small its influence in 2015, I don’t think a large, possibly influential SNP bloc at Westminster is as scary as it was made out to be in 2015. Well I'm hoping for Labour and the Lib Dems to claw some seats back from the SNP It wasn’t just the seats, we were informed by “the media” that Labour was losing support, particularly in the North East, at the prospect of Ed M being “bullied” by the SNP, and I think ag that time the prospect of IndyRef2 was less palatable in England than it may be today. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 25, 2022 22:30:09 GMT
that is obviously false. The Tories don't win every general election, as you know well. It just seems that way sometimes. I can't think of a time they haven't had a recovery 1997, 1974, 1964, 1945, 1929, 1923 (largest party but still a loss of sorts and lost government as a result), 1906. |
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Post by froome on Aug 26, 2022 3:32:15 GMT
The toeis have only one 2 elections in the last 30 years As in won outright? True, but in two others they've come out as the largest party and led the government. And my guess is that you were speaking your post into your phone, which often has, as they say, hilarious consequences. My wife likes to do this with WhatsApp messages and a translation service may be needed sometimes. Indeed. My toeis haven't won a single election, but they have trudged round a lot of houses over the years, delivering leaflets and canvassing.  |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 26, 2022 7:57:57 GMT
I can't think of a time they haven't had a recovery 1997, 1974, 1964, 1945, 1929, 1923 (largest party but still a loss of sorts and lost government as a result), 1906. the earlier examples are harder to measure but the most recent examples had very bad mid term polling for the Tories. Fourty points behind territory in some cases. There clearly was a recovery in every case as never lost by a margin anywhere near as bad as mid term polls |
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willpower3
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Post by willpower3 on Aug 26, 2022 8:02:47 GMT
1964 was a recovery but not quite enough of one.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 26, 2022 8:03:14 GMT
1997, 1974, 1964, 1945, 1929, 1923 (largest party but still a loss of sorts and lost government as a result), 1906. the earlier examples are harder to measure but the most recent examples had very bad mid term polling for the Tories. Fourty points behind territory in some cases. There clearly was a recovery in every case as never lost by a margin anywhere near as bad as mid term polls Present polling methodologies are not directly comparable to the ones used in the 1990s. At the time polling firms did not make major modifications to 'project' what a General Election would look like with the raw numbers they found; these days doing so is routine (for better or worse) even if the extent of those modifications varies. Polling then was therefore much more volatile than now and very large leads were much more frequent. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 26, 2022 8:09:47 GMT
the earlier examples are harder to measure but the most recent examples had very bad mid term polling for the Tories. Fourty points behind territory in some cases. There clearly was a recovery in every case as never lost by a margin anywhere near as bad as mid term polls Present polling methodologies are not directly comparable to the ones used in the 1990s. At the time polling firms did not make major modifications to 'project' what a General Election would look like with the raw numbers they found; these days doing so is routine (for better or worse) even if the extent of those modifications varies. Polling then was therefore much more volatile than now and very large leads were much more frequent. I'd only be to pleased to see adjusted methodology for previous mid term polling |
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 26, 2022 8:32:19 GMT
Present polling methodologies are not directly comparable to the ones used in the 1990s. At the time polling firms did not make major modifications to 'project' what a General Election would look like with the raw numbers they found; these days doing so is routine (for better or worse) even if the extent of those modifications varies. Polling then was therefore much more volatile than now and very large leads were much more frequent. I'd only be to pleased to see adjusted methodology for previous mid term polling There isn’t the data to adjust the methodology. It wasn’t collected. Like Sibboleth I have been banging on about the dereliction of polling companies from polling, to make predictions instead. We should have the actual data on public opinion posted, and then others can write articles about what they think it means. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 26, 2022 9:13:01 GMT
I'd only be to pleased to see adjusted methodology for previous mid term polling There isn’t the data to adjust the methodology. It wasn’t collected. Like Sibboleth I have been banging on about the dereliction of polling companies from polling, to make predictions instead. We should have the actual data on public opinion posted, and then others can write articles about what they think it means. I'm fairly sure that's not true. I recently was scrolling through the wiki tabs of elections gone by and much of the polling tables are still available if I can remember correctly |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 26, 2022 9:27:49 GMT
As I said before, I think 2010-15 at least has been "redone" on current methodology and shows Labour doing less well than claimed at the time.
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 26, 2022 12:29:05 GMT
As I said before, I think 2010-15 at least has been "redone" on current methodology and shows Labour doing less well than claimed at the time. yes and last we'd discussed this I think I'd seen 2015+ polls on prior 2015 methodology but not the other way round |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 29, 2022 11:01:26 GMT
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Post by batman on Sept 29, 2022 17:54:36 GMT
This poll is wildly out of line with other polls. Kantar (the company which I work for, but not on opinion polls) seems to have the most consistently pro-Conservative house effect of all pollsters at the moment, even including Opinium whose methodology is pretty weird. I really don't think that the Tories would get 35% if there were a general election today, although they might get 30% perhaps.
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Post by bridgyoldboy on Sept 29, 2022 18:05:29 GMT
This poll is wildly out of line with other polls. Kantar (the company which I work for, but not on opinion polls) seems to have the most consistently pro-Conservative house effect of all pollsters at the moment, even including Opinium whose methodology is pretty weird. I really don't think that the Tories would get 35% if there were a general election today, although they might get 30% perhaps. agree one of the biggest outliers I can recall I am amazed the polling company had the nerve to publish it |
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Post by michaelarden on Sept 29, 2022 18:50:25 GMT
This poll is wildly out of line with other polls. Kantar (the company which I work for, but not on opinion polls) seems to have the most consistently pro-Conservative house effect of all pollsters at the moment, even including Opinium whose methodology is pretty weird. I really don't think that the Tories would get 35% if there were a general election today, although they might get 30% perhaps. All of that is true, but it was 80% before the mini budget. I think the Conservative vote is in freefall as a result which YouGov has picked up (and amplified). |
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Post by batman on Sept 29, 2022 20:30:39 GMT
Kantar poll very infrequently (except in Scotland I think) and I doubt they'll bring out another one any time soon. I don't think the Tories would have been on 35% even at the time of the majority of the sampling, though they would be closer to that figure than they are now.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 24, 2022 12:39:33 GMT
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 25, 2022 9:13:28 GMT
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