Savanta/ComRes

[Devonian]

Con 32(+4) Lab 37(+1) LD 9 (-2) UKIP 11(-1) Other 11(-2)

www.comres.co.uk/poll/1043/independent-political-poll.htm

www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_26th_November_2013.pdf

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The previous poll was an outlier for having a very low Conservative vote. Yes, being up four is quite a big change, but it's regression to the mean.

[erlend]

The general Tory mean is perhaps 32-33 I think. So nothing to write home about.

[Deleted]

Yes, just a return to the mean.

[The Bishop]

Latest survey for the Sindie - Lab 36 Con 29 UKIP 18 LibDem 8.

[The Bishop]

And the final Indie phone survey for the year - Lab 37 Con 32 UKIP 10 LibDem 9. Only change from a month ago is UKIP down 1.

[Deleted]

Looks like some ramping going on

Jane Merrick @janemerrick23
We have a marmalade-dropper of a poll in the @indyonsunday tonight

[Deleted]

this is what got people excited

Voting intention:

Con 30% +1
Lab 35% -1
LibDem 8% ±0
UKIP 19% +1
Other 8% -1

Change since last month’s ComRes online poll. This would mean a Labour majority of 62 seats.

But the parties are ranked differently when respondents are asked: “Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following political leaders and parties.”

Favourable: parties

UKIP 27%
Labour 26% -2 since June 2013
Con 25% +2
LibDem 14%

Favourable: leaders

David Cameron 27% +4
Nigel Farage 22%
Ed Miliband 18% -2
Nick Clegg 13%

[Pimpernal]

This wasn't meant to happen was it!

www.comres.co.uk/poll/1076/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm

[Deleted]

Jan 18, 2014 21:55:44 GMT Pimpernal said:

This wasn't meant to happen was it!

www.comres.co.uk/poll/1076/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm

Its easy when you are allowed to get away with effectively having no policies besides disliking immigration and leaving the EU.

At first I thought you were a bit random and hilarious, but the more I hear from you the more I am sure what a clever game you are playing. You are the Kent UKIP answer to Boris.

[Pimpernal]

Not sure if I'm honoured or insulted now :/

[Deleted]

Jan 18, 2014 22:27:40 GMT Pimpernal said:

Not sure if I'm honoured or insulted now :/

It should be honoured. 

[thefuture]

By my (probably dodgy) maths and uniform swings, the latest COMRES poll would give UKIP 22 seats:

Aylesbury
Boston & Skegness
Bournemouth East
Bournemouth West
Chistchurch
Dudley West
East Devon
Huntingdon
Newcastle Under Lyme
Newton Abbot
North Devon
North Norfolk
Peterborough North
Peterborough South
Plymouth Davenport
Plymouth Sutton
South Suffolk
Spelthorne
St Ives
Staffordshire Moorlands
Thurrock
Torbay

[Deleted]

dudley West ??

Not sure how you work out UKIP will get either Dudley seats at all

[Deleted]

Dodgy maths indeed. I do not see how you get these and it is not at all realistic, even on the Comres figures.

[Deleted]

On their figures our vote would go up and we would win both dudley seats and how the heck would we lose Newcastle under Lyme ?

[psephos]

Peterborough North and South? Separate Plymouth Devonport and Sutton seats? Where are theseseats?

[thefuture]

Should be Dudley South, here is the "probably dodgy" maths

2010 result from UK Polling Report:
Con = 16450
Lab = 12594
LD = 5989
UKIP = 3132

Here is the 2010 national vote share from Wiki:
Con = 36.1%
Lab = 29%
LD = 23%
UKIP = 3.1%

Here are the uplifted percentages:
Con = 16450/36.1 x 30 = 13745
LAB = 12594/29 x 35 = 15200
LD = 5989/23 x 8 = 2083
UKIP= 3132/3.1 x 19 = 19196

[Davıd Boothroyd]

That's not how 'swing' works.

[thefuture]

Jan 19, 2014 19:08:00 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

That's not how 'swing' works.

I thought it must be wrong, how should it work?

Having incorrect source data which has constituencies that do not exist doesn't help either!