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Post by finsobruce on Sept 28, 2022 18:50:27 GMT
Penrith and the Border??? "I'm sorry my lord, I was drunk at the time". |
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Post by aargauer on Sept 28, 2022 19:08:39 GMT
Penrith and the Border??? "I'm sorry my lord, I was drunk at the time". A Place so Conservative they haven't gotten round to new fangled behaviour like counting sheep in English rather than a Brythonic language that has otherwise been extinct for 1000 years. |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Sept 28, 2022 19:28:30 GMT
Herts SW too!
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,917
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Post by YL on Sept 28, 2022 19:34:54 GMT
... and here are the seats which it has as Tory holds but with a Labour probability at least 40%: Banbury, Hemel Hempstead, Berwick upon Tweed, NW Leicestershire, N Swindon, Walsall N, Fylde, Stoke S, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Rugby, Beverley & Holderness, Plymouth Moor View, Derbyshire Dales, Nuneaton, Aylesbury, SW Hertfordshire, NE Somerset, Dudley N, Penrith & the Border, Beckenham, Burton, Harlow, Stourbridge, Rochester & Strood, Stafford, Bexleyheath & Crayford (a curious mix of one time marginals which have trended Tory with places Labour has never or very rarely won) have you a link? Yes, see the word "tables" near the beginning of my other post this evening. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,917
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Post by YL on Sept 28, 2022 19:39:05 GMT
Penrith and the Border??? I have a suspicion that MRPs which use "region" as a variable are prone to misinterpreting Labour's anomalous strength in greater Liverpool by spreading it around the whole North West region. This isn't the first MRP which has shown a near wipeout for the Tories in that region. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 28, 2022 19:46:44 GMT
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Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on Sept 28, 2022 20:03:35 GMT
Yeah can't see that. What would the residents of Moor Park and Chorleywood think with a Labour MP representing them!
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Post by jm on Sept 28, 2022 20:45:41 GMT
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Sept 28, 2022 21:09:18 GMT
As ever with MRPs, staggeringly high Labour shares in LD/Con marginals including:
23.6% in Winchester (2019 share 4.6%)
24.1% in Cheltenham (4.9%)
24.4% in Richmond Park (5.2%)
And these are the *lowest* Labour shares in LD/Con marginals I’ve found. Why do pollsters look at this, think it’s credible and publish the results?
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Sept 28, 2022 21:51:50 GMT
As ever with MRPs, staggeringly high Labour shares in LD/Con marginals including: 23.6% in Winchester (2019 share 4.6%) 24.1% in Cheltenham (4.9%) 24.4% in Richmond Park (5.2%) And these are the *lowest* Labour shares in LD/Con marginals I’ve found. Why do pollsters look at this, think it’s credible and publish the results? Well it probably is credible, there will be a significant number of people in LD/Con marginals who would instinctively say they’re going to vote Labour (especially when Labour are far ahead nationally), but come a general election and being bombarded with literature telling them the Local Lib Dem candidate is great and Labour Can’t Win Here, will end up voting LD. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 28, 2022 21:57:00 GMT
As ever with MRPs, staggeringly high Labour shares in LD/Con marginals including: 23.6% in Winchester (2019 share 4.6%) 24.1% in Cheltenham (4.9%) 24.4% in Richmond Park (5.2%) And these are the *lowest* Labour shares in LD/Con marginals I’ve found. Why do pollsters look at this, think it’s credible and publish the results? MRP looks at "the kind of people who vote for party X", not necessarily voting intention for party X. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Sept 28, 2022 22:29:58 GMT
I think if it's clear to voters that Labour can win a majority without Scotland, if the polling remains this robust, post 2011/2015 SNP pick ups are not going to vote Labour. I think if it's clear that Labour are going to be the largest party and need SNP support, regardless of what Labour say about 'deals' those voters are certainly not going to vote Labour. They will pick up the soft 'granny' votes from those who've had a brief Tory dalliance, but that's only going to give them a shout in the seats they won in 2017. Then why do you think the SNP struggled (relatively speaking) versus Labour in 2017? It wasn't down to them picking up Tory voters, as that election also saw the Conservatives' high water mark. Some of the pre-2015 strongest Labour seats in the central belt also had the highest 'yes' votes in Scotland, but still switched back to Labour in 2017. It may not be the most likely scenario, but I don't think Labour winning ~15-20 seats in Scotland is remotely unrealistic if they are winning a majority nationwide. And if Nicola Sturgeon runs a solely independence focused campaign in the midst of a cost of living crisis, as she has threatened to, then it could be more. On this topic, this MRP shows Labour on track to gain 9 seats from the SNP (the 2017 set plus Airdrie & Shotts, Glasgow South West, Glasgow East). Now many of them are by very small margins, but there are also a whole host of SNP holds by similarly small margins. If Labour can win a majority, or close to it, we could be looking at a very reasonable resurgence in Scotland. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Sept 28, 2022 22:34:56 GMT
As ever with MRPs, staggeringly high Labour shares in LD/Con marginals including: 23.6% in Winchester (2019 share 4.6%) 24.1% in Cheltenham (4.9%) 24.4% in Richmond Park (5.2%) And these are the *lowest* Labour shares in LD/Con marginals I’ve found. Why do pollsters look at this, think it’s credible and publish the results? MRP looks at "the kind of people who vote for party X", not necessarily voting intention for party X. In the tables of the poll it’s literally described as Voting Intention. |
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Post by batman on Sept 28, 2022 22:40:53 GMT
"I'm sorry my lord, I was drunk at the time". A Place so Conservative they haven't gotten round to new fangled behaviour like counting sheep in English rather than a Brythonic language that has otherwise been extinct for 1000 years. Well, they did come fairly close to electing the Alliance in the by-election in 1983 which followed Willie Whitelaw's elevation to the peerage, but probably mostly that's the phenomenon of people protesting against what they regard as an unnecessary election (like Leyton in 1965 for example). In normal circumstances, it's certainly a very safe Tory seat, and in the 2001 general election IIRC it was the second-safest in the land (after neighbouring Richmond - yes it is neighbouring) |
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Post by batman on Sept 28, 2022 22:42:29 GMT
that's a tiny bit less insane. There is one quite heavily Labour council-estate ward, and it was relatively close in the October 1974 general election, although on different boundaries to be fair. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Sept 28, 2022 22:43:40 GMT
As ever with MRPs, staggeringly high Labour shares in LD/Con marginals including: 23.6% in Winchester (2019 share 4.6%) 24.1% in Cheltenham (4.9%) 24.4% in Richmond Park (5.2%) And these are the *lowest* Labour shares in LD/Con marginals I’ve found. Why do pollsters look at this, think it’s credible and publish the results? Perhaps not as surprising as many would think - given that Labour was within 3,000 votes of winning Cheltenham in 1966. Many Labour voters there now probably vote LD on a tactical basis. |
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Post by batman on Sept 28, 2022 22:44:00 GMT
As ever with MRPs, staggeringly high Labour shares in LD/Con marginals including: 23.6% in Winchester (2019 share 4.6%) 24.1% in Cheltenham (4.9%) 24.4% in Richmond Park (5.2%) And these are the *lowest* Labour shares in LD/Con marginals I’ve found. Why do pollsters look at this, think it’s credible and publish the results? we would (expletive deleted) kill for 24.4% of the vote in my constituency. This does show the glaring weaknesses of an MRP poll, as do some of the other silly results shown in the thread. |
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Post by batman on Sept 28, 2022 22:45:25 GMT
Then why do you think the SNP struggled (relatively speaking) versus Labour in 2017? It wasn't down to them picking up Tory voters, as that election also saw the Conservatives' high water mark. Some of the pre-2015 strongest Labour seats in the central belt also had the highest 'yes' votes in Scotland, but still switched back to Labour in 2017. It may not be the most likely scenario, but I don't think Labour winning ~15-20 seats in Scotland is remotely unrealistic if they are winning a majority nationwide. And if Nicola Sturgeon runs a solely independence focused campaign in the midst of a cost of living crisis, as she has threatened to, then it could be more. On this topic, this MRP shows Labour on track to gain 9 seats from the SNP (the 2017 set plus Airdrie & Shotts, Glasgow South West, Glasgow East). Now many of them are by very small margins, but there are also a whole host of SNP holds by similarly small margins. If Labour can win a majority, or close to it, we could be looking at a very reasonable resurgence in Scotland. a strict application of UNS re the most recent YouGov poll also shows Labour very close in Airdrie & Shotts, I have them falling a tiny fraction short. The others less so |
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 28, 2022 23:14:51 GMT
What does this MRP poll suggest re- Wimbledon? Ah I see Wimbledon is a Labour gain.
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Post by aargauer on Sept 29, 2022 6:18:53 GMT
What does this MRP poll suggest re- Wimbledon? Ah I see Wimbledon is a Labour gain.
Not going to happen |
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