neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 31, 2022 21:18:32 GMT
could be statistical nooooooooise! Slack water. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Aug 1, 2022 18:48:28 GMT
Have the full figures for this one actually been confirmed yet?
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765 
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Post by clyde1998 on Aug 1, 2022 20:10:38 GMT
Have the full figures for this one actually been confirmed yet? The tables aren't on their website yet, but the figures I've seen are: Lab 42 (-2), Con 29 (-4), LDm 12 (+3), Grn 4 (+1), RUK 4 (+1), SNP 3 (nc) |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Aug 1, 2022 20:49:24 GMT
Have the full figures for this one actually been confirmed yet? The tables aren't on their website yet, but the figures I've seen are: Lab 42 (-2), Con 29 (-4), LDm 12 (+3), Grn 4 (+1), RUK 4 (+1), SNP 3 (nc) Thank you very much. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Sept 25, 2022 14:24:51 GMT
Excellent. I was only thinking the other day - it's been a while since we last had an MRP from anyone and it would be good to see a couple in the different political environment we're now in. Labourlist article suggests sameple size was only 6,226 though - isn't that a bit on the small side for an MRP? |
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 25, 2022 14:33:46 GMT
Excellent. I was only thinking the other day - it's been a while since we last had an MRP from anyone and it would be good to see a couple in the different political environment we're now in. Labourlist article suggests sameple size was only 6,226 though - isn't that a bit on the small side for an MRP? yes but it is an expensive exercise |
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 25, 2022 15:52:53 GMT
They think that Wyre and Preston North will be won by Labour - but that seat isn't remotely marginal.
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Post by batman on Sept 25, 2022 16:28:44 GMT
indeed, are there indeed any Labour councillors in the constituency? Most polls currently suggest that Labour would win 12 seats in Lancashire (including Blackburn with Darwen & Blackpool), and the Tories 3, Wyre & N Preston, Fylde & Ribble Valley, with the Speaker holding Chorley. All the 3 Tory seats look safe to me although Ribble Valley does have a Labourish patch close in towards Preston.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 25, 2022 16:34:26 GMT
indeed, are there indeed any Labour councillors in the constituency? Most polls currently suggest that Labour would win 12 seats in Lancashire (including Blackburn with Darwen & Blackpool), and the Tories 3, Wyre & N Preston, Fylde & Ribble Valley, with the Speaker holding Chorley. All the 3 Tory seats look safe to me although Ribble Valley does have a Labourish patch close in towards Preston. Yes they have all three seats in Garrison ward now in the 'Preston North' section of the seat |
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 25, 2022 16:35:01 GMT
indeed, are there indeed any Labour councillors in the constituency? Most polls currently suggest that Labour would win 12 seats in Lancashire (including Blackburn with Darwen & Blackpool), and the Tories 3, Wyre & N Preston, Fylde & Ribble Valley, with the Speaker holding Chorley. All the 3 Tory seats look safe to me although Ribble Valley does have a Labourish patch close in towards Preston. There is one Labour held ward, Garrison. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 25, 2022 16:41:12 GMT
They think that Wyre and Preston North will be won by Labour - but that seat isn't remotely marginal. It needs a 16% swing and if Labour actually did get the swing suggested by this poll I think there would be some seats with swings of that size; there were of course some in 1997. Some other recent MRPs have shown a bigger swing in the North West, and I suspect that's what's going on here too; I don't believe that they can really get useful seat level information from that sample size. Of course this is likely to be hypothetical anyway as that constituency is almost certain to be abolished if the boundary review is implemented. |
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Post by batman on Sept 25, 2022 17:30:12 GMT
the constituency arrangements have been consistently awkward for a number of years in north Lancashire. Wonder if we'll ever get a totally satisfactory arrangement. Lancaster & Fleetwood is particularly awkward as you can't get from one part of the constituency to the other by land without passing through another constituency - though that's hardly unique, there are even cases of that in London - and also because it doesn't include the whole of the city of Lancaster.
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 25, 2022 18:46:30 GMT
Has anyone a constituency breakdown?
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 25, 2022 18:53:22 GMT
the constituency arrangements have been consistently awkward for a number of years in north Lancashire. Wonder if we'll ever get a totally satisfactory arrangement. Lancaster & Fleetwood is particularly awkward as you can't get from one part of the constituency to the other by land without passing through another constituency - though that's hardly unique, there are even cases of that in London - and also because it doesn't include the whole of the city of Lancaster. There have been constituencies spanning the unbridged Wyre estuary since, I believe, 1983. There are actually currently two: Lancaster & Fleetwood and Wyre & Preston North, which includes the Poulton-le-Fylde area west of the estuary. The current proposed new boundaries don't have any, with Poulton-le-Fylde transferred to Fylde and Fleetwood reunited with Blackpool North. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 28, 2022 17:27:40 GMT
Has anyone a constituency breakdown? The tables have now been published. What follows is compared with 2019; the tables show the current situation. Note that I don't believe this sample size is enough for real seat-specific predictions, so take with an appropriate amount of salt. Lab gain from Con, probability over 90%: Bury S*, Heywood & Middleton, Bolton NE, Blyth Valley, Bury N, NW Durham, Burnley, Leigh, Derby N, Kensington, High Peak, Gedling, Dewsbury, Warrington S, Lincoln, Wakefield*, Ashfield, Keighley, Pudsey, Hyndburn, Darlington, Don Valley, Northampton S, Redcar, Colne Valley, Broxtowe Lab gain from Con, probability between 80% and 90%: Brum Northfield, Altrincham & Sale W, Stoke C, Blackpool S, Calder Valley, Chipping Barnet, Sedgefield, Loughborough, Stockton S, Bolsover, Bridgend, Southport, Workington, Shipley, Clwyd S, West Brom E, Rushcliffe, Northampton N, Chingford & Woodford Green, Hendon, Peterborough, Barrow & Furness, Pendle, Rother Valley, Two Cities, Wycombe, Watford, Copeland, Reading W, Wrexham, Wolverhampton SW, Vale of Clwyd, Morecambe & Lunesdale, MK S, Crewe & Nantwich, Corby, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Scunthorpe, Bolton W, West Brom W, Southamptin Itchen, Vale of Glamorgan, Carlisle, MK N, Rossendale & Darwen, Great Grimsby, Aberconwy, Hastings & Rye Lab gain from Con, probability between 70% and 80%: Bishop Auckland, York O, Wolverhampton NE, Morley & Outwood, Ipswich, Stroud, S Ribble, Macclesfield, Erewash, Truro & Falmouth, Norwich N, Filton & Sadly Broke, Scarborough & Whitby, S Swindon, Worcester, Blackpool N & Cleveleys, Uxbridge & S Ruislip  , Preseli Pembrokeshire, Middlesbrough S & E Cleveland, Crawley, Stoke N Lab gain from Con, probability between 60% and 70%: Stevenage, Finchley & Golders Green, Colchester, Harrow E, Hexham, Ynys Môn, E Worthing & Shoreham, Bournemouth E, NE Derbyshire, Newcastle-u-L, Chelsea & Fulham (!), Bassetlaw, Gloucester, Welwyn Hatfield, Wimbledon, Thurrock, Clwyd W, Monmouth, Sherwood, Croydon S, Camborne & Redruth, Elmet & Rothwell, Harborough (!), Carmarthen W & S Pembrokeshire Lab gain from Con, probability between 50% and 60%: Shrewsbury & Atcham, Kettering, Mansfield, Bournemouth W, Basingstoke, Telford, Eddisbury (!), Wellingborough, Bromley & Chislehurst, Congleton, Mid Derbyshire, Rochford & Southend E, Kingswood, Ribble Valley, S Derbyshire, S Derbyshire, S Thanet, Wyre & Preston N, Tatton (!), Selby & Ainsty, Dover, Amber Valley Lab gain from SNP: Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, E Lothian, Glasgow NE, Midlothian, Airdrie & Shotts, Glasgow E, (Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill), Glasgow SW. Lab gain from Plaid: Arfon. LD gain from Con: Cheadle, Carshalton & Wallington, St Ives, Eastbourne, Winchester, Cheltenham, Lewes SNP gain from LD: Edinburgh W, (Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross), NE Fife SNP gain from Con: all Con seats in Scotland |
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 28, 2022 17:35:43 GMT
... and here are the seats which it has as Tory holds but with a Labour probability at least 40%:
Banbury, Hemel Hempstead, Berwick upon Tweed, NW Leicestershire, N Swindon, Walsall N, Fylde, Stoke S, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Rugby, Beverley & Holderness, Plymouth Moor View, Derbyshire Dales, Nuneaton, Aylesbury, SW Hertfordshire, NE Somerset, Dudley N, Penrith & the Border, Beckenham, Burton, Harlow, Stourbridge, Rochester & Strood, Stafford, Bexleyheath & Crayford
(a curious mix of one time marginals which have trended Tory with places Labour has never or very rarely won)
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 28, 2022 18:36:20 GMT
... and here are the seats which it has as Tory holds but with a Labour probability at least 40%: Banbury, Hemel Hempstead, Berwick upon Tweed, NW Leicestershire, N Swindon, Walsall N, Fylde, Stoke S, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Rugby, Beverley & Holderness, Plymouth Moor View, Derbyshire Dales, Nuneaton, Aylesbury, SW Hertfordshire, NE Somerset, Dudley N, Penrith & the Border, Beckenham, Burton, Harlow, Stourbridge, Rochester & Strood, Stafford, Bexleyheath & Crayford (a curious mix of one time marginals which have trended Tory with places Labour has never or very rarely won) have you a link? |
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Post by aargauer on Sept 28, 2022 18:41:52 GMT
Penrith and the Border???
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, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Middlesbrough S & E Cleveland, Crawley, Stoke N