Savanta/ComRes

[peterl]

Dec 8, 2021 18:40:35 GMT finsobruce said:

Dec 8, 2021 18:29:17 GMT peterl said:

What's the percentage that believe Johnson is a Martian?

Are you implying he's a secret red?? (or green)

Just that he often seems to be from another planet.

(And I can assure you we would not take him!)

[finsobruce]

Dec 8, 2021 18:41:49 GMT peterl said:

Dec 8, 2021 18:40:35 GMT finsobruce said:

Are you implying he's a secret red?? (or green)

Just that he often seems to be from another planet.

(And I can assure you we would not take him!)

I was thinking as in little green men...

[woollyliberal]

And then there were 5. Comres is the 5th poll since Partygate and the 5th to have a Labour lead.

[andrew111]

Dec 8, 2021 18:44:59 GMT finsobruce said:

Dec 8, 2021 18:41:49 GMT peterl said:

Just that he often seems to be from another planet.

(And I can assure you we would not take him!)

I was thinking as in little green men...

Are you suggesting there is something suspicious like a crime 'ere?

[hullenedge]

[cogload]

[clyde1998]

[frankyank]

At the same time, ComRes has Johnson resigning on 66%/24% for.

[The Bishop]

Though that was a "quickie" poll taken after the latest scandal broke, rather than the previous regular VI one.

[andrewp]

[Adam in Stroud]

Early days, but there seems to be a slight tendency for the opposition vote to coalesce around Labour. Since Labour are the only conceivable occupants of No 10 other than the Conservatives it suggests a shift away from being unhappy with the latter to actually wanting them out.

[No Offence Alan]

Jan 14, 2022 19:32:44 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Early days, but there seems to be a slight tendency for the opposition vote to coalesce around Labour. Since Labour are the only conceivable occupants of No 10 other than the Conservatives it suggests a shift away from being unhappy with the latter to actually wanting them out.

And with polls showing a combined 15-20% to squeeze for the LD/Greens, against 4/5% for RefUK,
that bodes well for Labour in the marginals.

[woollyliberal]

Basically no change anywhere

[iang]

Though find it difficult to believe that the SNP are 5% - what proportion of Scotland would that make them?

[woollyliberal]

Jan 19, 2022 19:56:25 GMT iang said:

Though find it difficult to believe that the SNP are 5% - what proportion of Scotland would that make them?

61% assuming the proportion of voting age people is the same as the UK as a whole. The SNP's vote share is fairly steady between 4 and 5% most of the time. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

[andrew111]

Jan 19, 2022 20:55:14 GMT woollyliberal said:

Jan 19, 2022 19:56:25 GMT iang said:

Though find it difficult to believe that the SNP are 5% - what proportion of Scotland would that make them?

61% assuming the proportion of voting age people is the same as the UK as a whole. The SNP's vote share is fairly steady between 4 and 5% most of the time. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

It is basically a Scottish crossbreak with a small sample and no proper demographic weighting and not worth worrying about..

[clyde1998]

Jan 19, 2022 19:56:25 GMT iang said:

Though find it difficult to believe that the SNP are 5% - what proportion of Scotland would that make them?

A number of things to keep in mind here:

1. It's a rounded figure - so it's probably just over 4.5%; the SNP got 4.7% UK-wide in 2015.
2. ComRes don't sample Northern Ireland in their polling. Removing NI from recent general elections results gives the SNP an extra 0.1/0.2pp, which makes it easier to get over the 4.5% threshold.
   
3. You could have differential turnout across different areas of the UK. In 2015 turnout in Scotland was 5pp higher than the UK average, in 2017 it was 2.3pp lower and in 2019 it was 0.8pp higher. Depending on the regional weights in the poll, or any turnout model used, it could factor in to a higher (or lower) figure for the SNP (and Plaid) in UK-wide numbers than might be expected.
4. It's a sub-sample - so you've got a huge margin of error in regional figures, which will have a knock-on affect for the SNP (and Plaid) figure.

[The Bishop]

IIRC the SNP have a peak score of 7% in GB-wide polling (which "equates" to about three quarters of Scots voting for them)

[andrewp]

[clyde1998]

I think that chimes with YouGov - there's been stability over the past week.