andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,623 
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Sept 14, 2018 6:29:04 GMT
Sums up British elections ( and politics) at the moment- all of the parties not making any great shakes but all doing ok enough to not risk making any changes
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Sept 14, 2018 7:42:47 GMT
Sums up British elections ( and politics) at the moment- all of the parties not making any great shakes but all doing ok enough to not risk making any changes I think the results illustrate very nicely that votes in low turnout by-elections in small wards depend far more on activity by the Parties than the national situation. This is especially true of the Lib Dems and Greens, who are defying gravity anywhere where they get more than the national vote. In England every election at all levels would be won by either Labour or Tory in the absence of campaigning by one of the others. This applied even when the Lib Dems and afterwards UKIP were at 20%. Now the activation energy is much larger for all the smaller Parties. I suspect the result in Charnwood was as much about the departure of one or two Lib Dem activists as the level of Labour campaigning, and what we see there is something like the current General Election vote in that ward, with no Lib Dem campaign sufficient to persuade people to vote otherwise. Similarly in Cambridge, we see the shift from a ward the Lib Dems do not have the resources to target on a local election day to a by-election when they do (especially in Cambridge where clearly they still have quite a lot of mobile activists, and plenty of people who will have voted Lib Dem in the past) |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Sept 14, 2018 8:34:11 GMT
Cambridge, Petersfield - Labour hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | | Labour | 873 | 47.9% | -10.4% | -13.5% | +4.0% | +4.5% | +1.6% | Liberal Democrat | 663 | 36.4% | +16.3% | +23.3% | +15.0% | +12.0% | +17.2% | Green | 171 | 9.4% | -3.5% | -5.7% | -13.9% | -13.9% | -16.1% | Conservative | 115 | 6.3% | -2.5% | -4.1% | -5.1% | -2.6% | -2.8% | Total votes | 1,822 |
| 85% | 86% | 49% | 62% | 67% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat ~13½% since May, 18½% since 2016, 5½% since 2015 and 3¾% / 7¾% since 2014 Council now 26 Labour, 13 Liberal democrat, 2 Independent, 1 Green Charnwood, Birstall Wanlip - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2014 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 492 | 47.1% | +5.8% | +8.1% | +6.2% | +14.4% | -0.6% | +0.7% | Labour | 340 | 32.6% | +9.8% | +6.1% | +5.1% | +4.9% | +4.8% | +6.1% | Liberal Democrat | 128 | 12.3% | -20.0% | -22.3% | -19.4% | -27.4% | -12.2% | -14.8% | UKIP | 50 | 4.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 34 | 3.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
|
| -3.7% |
|
|
|
|
| Total votes | 1,044 |
| 56% | 28% | 31% | 81% | 45% | 50% |
Swing not particularly meaningful as Liberal Democrat came ahead of Labour in most previous elections but - Conservative to Labour 2% since 2017 by-election and ~ 2% / 2¾% since 2011 but Labour to Conservative 1% / ½% since 2015 and 4¾% since 2014 by-election Council now 41 Conservative, 9 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Lambeth, Coldharbour - Labour hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | | Labour | 1,739 | 58.2% | +2.3% | +3.0% | -2.8% | -3.9% | Green | 912 | 30.5% | +12.2% | +12.3% | +10.3% | +10.2% | Liberal Democrat | 148 | 5.0% | +0.6% | +0.5% | -1.2% | +0.2% | Conservative | 119 | 4.0% | -1.5% | -1.4% | -2.4% | -2.5% | Women's Equality | 47 | 1.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 21 | 0.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -2.8% | -3.1% | Independent |
|
| -15.9% | -16.7% |
|
| Independent |
|
|
|
| -2.7% | -2.6% | Total votes | 2,986 |
| 72% | 75% | 82% | 89% |
Swing Labour to Green ~ 5% / 4¾% since May and ~ 6½% / 7% since 2104 Council now 57 Labour, 5 Green, 1 Conservative Maidstone, Headcorn - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Conservative | 686 | 57.3% | -17.5% | -7.3% | +8.5% | -13.3% | Liberal Democrat | 409 | 34.1% | +19.7% | +30.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 63 | 5.3% | -5.5% | -2.2% | -1.7% | from nowhere | Green | 40 | 3.3% | from nowhere | -1.4% | -8.3% | -26.1% | UKIP |
|
|
| -19.2% | -32.6% |
| Total votes | 1,198 |
| 81% | 77% | 67% | 84% |
Swing, if particularly meaningful, Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 18½% since May and 2016
Council now 25 Conservative, 21 Liberal Democrat, 6 various Independents, 3 Labour
New Forest, Pennington - Conservative hold
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 497 | 42.0% | -10.1% | -11.6% | -3.6% | -3.0% | Liberal Democrat | 445 | 37.6% | +8.8% | +11.6% | +7.5% | +8.1% | Independent | 144 | 12.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 97 | 8.2% | -10.9% | -12.1% | -4.0% | -4.6% | Green |
|
|
|
| -12.1% | -12.7% | Total votes | 1,183 |
| 41% | 43% | 54% | 57% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 9½% / 11½% since 2015 and ~ 5½% since 2011
Council now 57 Conservative, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent
Pembrokeshire, Pembroke St Mary North - Independent gain from Conservative sitting as Independent
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2012 | since 2008 | Independent Harvey | 187 | 32.5% | -5.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | No Description Bush | 79 | 13.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Nutting | 77 | 13.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 61 | 10.6% | -11.6% | from nowhere | -21.1% | Independent Boucher | 59 | 10.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 45 | 7.8% | -31.6% | -23.1% | from nowhere | No Description Edwards | 42 | 7.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Williams | 26 | 4.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Councillor |
|
|
| -69.1% | -37.2% | Previous Independent |
|
|
|
| -22.6% | Liberal Democrat |
|
|
|
| -8.6% | Total votes | 576 |
| 105% | 131% | 92% |
Swing not meaningful
Council now 20 Not Affiliated, 15 Independent, 11 Conservative, 7 Labour, 6 Plaid Cymru, 1 Liberal Democrat
|
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Sept 14, 2018 8:53:16 GMT
For John Loony's benefit... St Mary North (Pembrokeshire): IND (Harvey): 187 IND (Bush): 79 IND (Nutting): 77 Labour: 61 IND (Boucher): 59 Conservative: 45 IND (Edwards): 42 IND (Williams): 26 --- Headcorn (Maidstone): Conservative: 686 Liberal Democrat: 409 Labour: 63 Green: 40 I don't see why we should run this thread for the benefit of johnloony |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 14, 2018 9:50:04 GMT
I think your tone was quite unnecessarily tetchy and condescending John Loony. I don't understand why you felt the need to adopt that tone at all. I hope you'll be more polite next time you comment about something I've said. Its his, ahem, "unique" way of doing things at times - I don't think it was particularly aimed at you personally. |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Sept 14, 2018 10:04:29 GMT
I think your tone was quite unnecessarily tetchy and condescending John Loony. I don't understand why you felt the need to adopt that tone at all. I hope you'll be more polite next time you comment about something I've said. Its his, ahem, "unique" way of doing things at times - I don't think it was particularly aimed at you personally. I am broadly with John on this one. As far as I am concerned, the result is not known until the voting figures are available and preferably verified. Last night Britain Elects had slightly different %ages for Birstall Wanlip to those implicit in the figures I found on the web, subsequently verified by the Council website; this has occasionally happened in the past. |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Sept 14, 2018 12:05:09 GMT
I think your tone was quite unnecessarily tetchy and condescending John Loony. I don't understand why you felt the need to adopt that tone at all. I hope you'll be more polite next time you comment about something I've said. On the contrary, my tone was absolutely necessarily tetchy and condescending. I needed to adopt that tone, not just to you individually, but to several other people, because (as I have written repeatedly on several previous occasions) I am absolutely fed up to the back teeth with the patronising, insulting, pompous attitude of several people on the Internet (on Twitter and elsewhere, as well as on this forum) who report the results of local council by-elections in an incomplete way, by reporting the percentages only, and not the actual numbers. The result of any election is, by definition, the number of votes cast for each candidate. Anything other than that – for example, a list of percentages – is not a result and should not be untruthfully described as a result. I responded to your messages earlier on this thread in the way that I did because I was annoyed at the fact that you had untruthfully stated that the results of all six by-elections had already been reported on the thread. If you continue to insult my intelligence by telling lies of that sort in future, then I will continue responding accordingly. If, on the other hand, you do not want me to be condescending towards you, then I would politely advise you not to make such untruthful statements. I would give the same advice to anybody else who suffers from the same hallucination of equating percentages with results. |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Sept 14, 2018 12:10:18 GMT
For John Loony's benefit... St Mary North (Pembrokeshire): IND (Harvey): 187 IND (Bush): 79 IND (Nutting): 77 Labour: 61 IND (Boucher): 59 Conservative: 45 IND (Edwards): 42 IND (Williams): 26 --- Headcorn (Maidstone): Conservative: 686 Liberal Democrat: 409 Labour: 63 Green: 40 Thank you for answering the question  |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Sept 14, 2018 13:04:15 GMT
I am just happy that people give up their time and energy to provide this amazing resource of election results and also a set of interesting and mostly polite and not too partisan comments.
Personally I find the % votes (and changes) more interesting than the actual numbers, but it would be nice to have a more systematic reporting of total electorate, turnout, and number of postal votes cast (the latter being the most difficult of course, although not secret as far as I am aware! )
But thanks everyone for what you do, and let's be patient with the foibles of what is necessarily a slightly strange group of people!
|
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Sept 14, 2018 14:59:43 GMT
The table below answers some of the points raised by andrew111 above. However, it can only be completed when the result of the poll is published by the relevant Council.
| Authority | Ward / Division | Electorate | Ballots issued | Spoilt papers | Ballots counted | Turnout | Postal ballots
issue | Postal ballots
returned
| Postal votes
as % counted | | Carlisle | Denton Holme
| 4,685 | 1,047 | 11 | 1,036 | 22.3% |
|
|
| | Cumbria | Denton Holme
|
| 1,065 | 8 | 1,057 |
|
|
|
| Fife | Inverkeithing
& Dalgety Bay | 14,484 | 6,239 | 48 | 6,191 | 43.1% |
| 2,052 | 33% | Tameside | Ashton
Waterloo | 8,717 | 1,697 | 3 | 1,694 | 19.5% |
|
|
| Cambridge | Petersfield
|
| 1,831 | 9 | 1,822 |
|
|
|
| Charnwood | Birstall Wanlip
| 5,576 | 1,045 | 1 | 1,044 | 18.7% |
|
|
| Lambeth | Coldharbour
| 12,040 | 2,995 | 9 | 2,986 | 24.9% |
|
|
| Maidstone | Headcorn
|
| 1,200 | 2 | 1,198 |
|
|
|
| New Forest | Pennington
| 4,955 | 1,189 | 6 | 1,183 | 23.9% |
|
|
| Pembrokeshire | Pembroke
St Mary North |
| 578 | 2 | 576 |
|
|
|
| East Devon | Ottery St Mary
Rural |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Epsom & Ewell | Nonsuch
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Luton | Limbury
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Suffolk Coastal | Wenhaston &
Westleton
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Winchester | Upper Meon
Valley |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Wyre Forest | Bewdley &
Rock |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Lichfield | Stow
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nottingham | Clifton North
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Salford | Eccles
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The data has been obtained from a first review of the published results. I am sure if I digged deeper I may be able to fill in some of the gaps but overall it may be indicative of the paucity of information published. |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Sept 14, 2018 15:47:05 GMT
I am just happy that people give up their time and energy to provide this amazing resource of election results and also a set of interesting and mostly polite and not too partisan comments. Personally I find the % votes (and changes) more interesting than the actual numbers, but it would be nice to have a more systematic reporting of total electorate, turnout, and number of postal votes cast (the latter being the most difficult of course, although not secret as far as I am aware! ) But thanks everyone for what you do, and let's be patient with the foibles of what is necessarily a slightly strange group of people! I'm not sure " slightly strange" quite cuts it. but well said. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Sept 14, 2018 21:32:58 GMT
The table below answers some of the points raised by andrew111 above. However, it can only be completed when the result of the poll is published by the relevant Council.
| Authority | Ward / Division | Electorate | Ballots issued | Spoilt papers | Ballots counted | Turnout | Postal ballots
issue | Postal ballots
returned
| Postal votes
as % counted | | Carlisle | Denton Holme
| 4,685 | 1,047 | 11 | 1,036 | 22.3% |
|
|
| | Cumbria | Denton Holme
|
| 1,065 | 8 | 1,057 |
|
|
|
| Fife | Inverkeithing
& Dalgety Bay | 14,484 | 6,239 | 48 | 6,191 | 43.1% |
| 2,052 | 33% | Tameside | Ashton
Waterloo | 8,717 | 1,697 | 3 | 1,694 | 19.5% |
|
|
| Cambridge | Petersfield
|
| 1,831 | 9 | 1,822 |
|
|
|
| Charnwood | Birstall Wanlip
| 5,576 | 1,045 | 1 | 1,044 | 18.7% |
|
|
| Lambeth | Coldharbour
| 12,040 | 2,995 | 9 | 2,986 | 24.9% |
|
|
| Maidstone | Headcorn
|
| 1,200 | 2 | 1,198 |
|
|
|
| New Forest | Pennington
| 4,955 | 1,189 | 6 | 1,183 | 23.9% |
|
|
| Pembrokeshire | Pembroke
St Mary North |
| 578 | 2 | 576 |
|
|
|
| East Devon | Ottery St Mary
Rural |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Epsom & Ewell | Nonsuch
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Luton | Limbury
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Suffolk Coastal | Wenhaston &
Westleton
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Winchester | Upper Meon
Valley |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Wyre Forest | Bewdley &
Rock |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Lichfield | Stow
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nottingham | Clifton North
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Salford | Eccles
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The data has been obtained from a first review of the published results. I am sure if I digged deeper I may be able to fill in some of the gaps but overall it may be indicative of the paucity of information published. Thanks! I appreciate the effort - I suspect that in most cases the number of postal votes would only come from people at the count... In Scotland I guess there is generally more release of data thanks perhaps to the electronic counting... Turnout is recorded but it is a bit much to expect it to be done here routinely
I was being a bit tongue in cheek when I asked for this stuff - sorry!
|
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 17, 2018 12:12:13 GMT
Ah yes that's what I meant. Alex Wood Hall hasn't changed one bit - I canvassed from there in the 2015 general election since I was there to sing in a concert conducted by a friend of mine, at Newnham college. The Hall certainly has changed, and thank goodness. The old one was much longer, single storey, impossible to heat, decaying, and with a seldom-used library at one end. The more things change, the more they stay the same... |
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Sept 17, 2018 12:24:38 GMT
The Hall certainly has changed, and thank goodness. The old one was much longer, single storey, impossible to heat, decaying, and with a seldom-used library at one end. The more things change, the more they stay the same... Oh dear! I haven't been there recently but I'd have hoped that a relatively wealthy party (big membership and a fair number of very affluent ones; when I was Treasurer I was told that the party expected to make a surplus on any General Election, and it did) would have looked after their asset. |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 17, 2018 12:28:22 GMT
Oh, it's fine (well, I'm not sure if the argument about disabled accessibility is still going on, but that's usually a factional signifier rather than anything about the building itself.) But it's functionally single-story (the second floor is let out), it's not particularly warm and no building of that vintage is likely to look impressive.
|
|
