Local Council By-elections 13th September

[Tony Otim]

CAMBRIDGE BC; Petersfield (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BROWN, Sarah Elizabeth (Liberal Democrat)
COLE, Othman Bankole (Conservative)
GREEN, Kelley (Labour)
IERUBINO, Virgil Au Wenhan (Green)

2018: Lab 1256; LD 432; Grn 278; Con 189
2016: Lab 1305; Grn 321; LD 277; Con 221
2015: Lab 1632; Grn 864; LD 795; Con 422
2014: Lab 1280, 1223; LD 720, 317; Grn 688; Con 262, 228
2012: Lab 1036; LD 322; Grn 263; Con 209
2011: Lab 1353; LD 594; Grn 481; Con 340
2010 LD 1571, 1000; Lab 1237, 891; Grn 923, 575; Con 558, 472
2008: Lab 857; LD 541; Con 301; Grn 236
2007: Lab 1063; LD 817; Con 239; Grn 225
2006: Lab 879; LD 848; Grn 282; Con 243
2004: Lab 797, 770, 709; LD 787, 727, 673; Grn 349, 345, 341; Con 273, 230, 207; Ind 89

The Lib Dem is the former councillor for the ward, elected in 2010 and losing her seat (although comfortably outperforming her running mate) in 2014. She also stood this May as did the Green.



CHARNWOOD BC; Birstall Wanlip (Con resigned)
Candidates:
CLANCY, Charlotte Mary (Green)
CUTTING, Norman (UKIP)
KHAYER, Abe (Labour)
RATTRAY, Shona (Conservative)
THORNBOROW, Carolyn Julia (Liberal Democrats)


May 17 by: Con 772; LD 603; Lab 425; Ind 69
2015: Con 1459, 1308; LD 1289, 851; Lab 987, 873
Feb 14 by: LD 508; Con 419; Lab 355;
2011: Con 1102, 830; Lab 642, 461; LD 564
2007: LD 875, 774; Con 822, 779; BNP 250
2003: LD 716, 562; Con 708, 653; Lab 189, 161

The UKIP candidate was the indy in last year’s by-election



LAMBETH LB; Coldharbour (Lab died)
Candidates:
BUIST, Doug (Liberal Democrat)
FOGDEN, Sian (Women’s Equality)
GROCE, Michael (Green)
O’HARA, Scarlett Blanaid (Labour)
STEPHENSON, Robert (UKIP)
STEWART-WILLIAMS, Yvonne Patricia (Conservative)

2018: Lab 2325, 2257, 1975; Grn 761, 683; Ind 660; Con 228, 217, 189; LD 182, 180, 173
2014: Lab 2232, 2037, 2014; Grn 742, 680, 638; Con 233, 213, 206; LD 225, 126, 126; UKIP 127; Ind 100, 76
2010: Lab 3983, 3819, 3681; LD 1091, 1081, 808; Grn 611, 573, 511; Con 581, 458, 430; CPA 169
2006: Lab 1299, 1272, 1187; Grn 486, 471, 400; LD 304, 270, 216; Con 250, 242, 222
2002: Lab 989, 949, 899; Grn 241, 219, 217; LD 215, 203, 181; Soc All 152; Con 112, 88, 85; Ind 47, 43, 40

The Green was the topped placed Green this May and the Conservative the bottom-placed Conservative (she also stood in 2014 and 2010). The indy from May had been Labour councillor for the ward from 2006 until this year.



MAIDSTONE BC; Headcorn (Con resigned)
Candidates:
CHAPPELL-TAY, Karen Louise (Conservative)
EAGLE, Derek (Green)
FRASER, Merilyn Sandford (Liberal Democrat)
GROGAN, Jim (Labour)

2018: Con 1105; LD 214; Lab 159
2016: Con 1002; UKIP 298; Lab 116; Grn 73; LD 62
2014: Con 868; UKIP 580; Grn 208: Lab 124
2012: Con 1001; Grn 417
2010: Con 1922; LD 395; Grn 292; Lab 245
2008: Con 1164; Grn 581
2006: Con 1094; Grn 701
2004: Con 1153; LD 206; UKIP 181; Grn 146; Lab 126
2002: Con 1117, 985; Grn 501

The Lib Dem stood here in May, the Green in 2016 and the Labour candidate in 2014.



NEW FOREST DC; Pennington (Con resigned)
Candidates:
DAVIES, Jack (Liberal Democrats)
GOSSAGE, Andrew Alexander (Conservative)
HART, Trina (Labour)
JEARRAD, Ted (Independent)

2015: Con 1505, 1413; LD 832, 586; Lab 552
2011: Con 992, 877; LD 655, 569; Lab 265; Grn 264
2007: Con 791, 621; LD 775, 767; Lab 100
2003: LD 848, 814; Con 509, 378; Ind 263

The Lib Dem candidate was the top placed Lib Dem in 2015


PEMBROKESHIRE UA; Pembroke St Mary North (Con sitting as INd resigned)
Candidates:
BOUCHER, Bob (Independent)
BOWEN, Maureen (Labour)
BUSH, Daphne Margaret Jane (No Description)
CAREY, Natalie Sarah (Conservative)
EDWARDS, Lyn (No Description)
HARVEY, Jon (Independent)
NUTTING, Jonathan Anthony Robert (Independent)
WILLIAMS, Al (Independent)

2017: Con 217; Ind 211; Lab 122
2012: Ind 304; Con 136
2008: Ind 230, 140; Lab 196; LD 53
2004: Ind 238, 194; Lab 179

Jon Harvey was the indy who almost won last year. [This one's going to be fun for the prediction competition]

[finsobruce]

The Labour candidate in Lambeth is called Scarlett O'Hara!!

There will of course be those of you who don't give a damn.

[froome]

Sept 8, 2018 7:35:56 GMT finsobruce said:

The Labour candidate in Lambeth is called Scarlett O'Hara!!

There will of course be those of you who don't give a damn.

And with a fascinating second name as well.

The Cambridge election is also wonderful for those who like unusual names. Our candidate would be worth voting for for just the name.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Sept 8, 2018 7:35:56 GMT finsobruce said:

The Labour candidate in Lambeth is called Scarlett O'Hara!!

There will of course be those of you who don't give a damn.

A minor point of interest is that the 1985 Brixton riot was sparked by a police raid seeking to arrest the Green candidate.

[Deleted]

Probably worth noting that the Pennington Lib Dem candidate won that ward on the town council level in a late 2015 by-election, through a tie breaker.

[timokane]

Sept 8, 2018 7:35:56 GMT finsobruce said:

The Labour candidate in Lambeth is called Scarlett O'Hara!!

There will of course be those of you who don't give a damn.

And the UKIP candidate could face a Rocket. 

[Chris from Brum]

Interesting to see the LDs in second place in four out of these six, though in Maidstone that's still a country mile behind. Charnwood could be a possible gain, New Forest and Cambridge I'd have as long shots, Maidstone a miracle and Lambeth impossible from the distant last place we had last time, though there everyone is a long way behind Labour.

Getting a candidate in place in Pembrokeshire would have been a good start there. I do wonder if the number of independent and no description candidates might split the independent vote too many ways.

[Tony Otim]

Certainly I'd say chances in New Forest are much, much, much higher than Cambridge and may be higher than Charnwood.

[Chris from Brum]

There's a decent sized Labour vote to try to squeeze in Charnwood. In the New Forest, it may not be enough to bridge the gap. Though in both cases we'll be trying to win over Tory voters as well, of course. Cambridge is probably beyond reach, though we'll have to see whether recent events have damaged Labour's reputation.

[Deleted]

Sept 8, 2018 14:38:12 GMT @nw12398 said:

Probably worth noting that the Pennington Lib Dem candidate won that ward on the town council level in a late 2015 by-election, through a tie breaker.

They're a funny lot, Pennington candidates.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Sept 10, 2018 15:23:55 GMT @barnabymarder said:

I'd say Petersfield is even less than a long shot.

They did alright in 2017 (on slightly different boundaries, but I doubt it made that much difference.) There is a bit of a dormant LD vote in the ward, but usually they don't have the resources to work it. All that said, I don't expect an upset.

[justin124]

Sept 10, 2018 14:33:55 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Interesting to see the LDs in second place in four out of these six, though in Maidstone that's still a country mile behind. Charnwood could be a possible gain, New Forest and Cambridge I'd have as long shots, Maidstone a miracle and Lambeth impossible from the distant last place we had last time, though there everyone is a long way behind Labour.

Getting a candidate in place in Pembrokeshire would have been a good start there. I do wonder if the number of independent and no description candidates might split the independent vote too many ways.

Traditionally party politics has not generally been part of the culture re-Local Government in Pembrokeshire. That may now be changing somewhat , but candidates elected wearing party labels are often elected there inspite of them - rather than because of them!

[John Chanin]

britainelects.com/2018/09/11/previews-13-sep-2018/

[andrew111]

Sept 12, 2018 11:52:56 GMT John Chanin said:

britainelects.com/2018/09/11/previews-13-sep-2018/

That preview is interesting (and a bit more controversial than usual) as always but does contain one of the worst puns I have ever seen...

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I probably shouldn't be asking this but is Ted Jerrard (Independent candidate for Pennington ward in New Forest) any relation to Don Jerrard (perennial 'anti-corruption' candidate in Hampshire)?

[Tony Otim]

Sept 12, 2018 12:42:32 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I probably shouldn't be asking this but is Ted Jerrard (Independent candidate for Pennington ward in New Forest) any relation to Don Jerrard (perennial 'anti-corruption' candidate in Hampshire)?

According to the SOPN it's Ted JEARRAD not Jerrard, so probably not.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Sept 12, 2018 12:49:48 GMT Tony Otim said:

Sept 12, 2018 12:42:32 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I probably shouldn't be asking this but is Ted Jerrard (Independent candidate for Pennington ward in New Forest) any relation to Don Jerrard (perennial 'anti-corruption' candidate in Hampshire)?

According to the SOPN it's Ted JEARRAD not Jerrard, so probably not.

So it is.

I just made the mistake of looking up his facebook page and his election address. Tough on punctuation, tough on the causes of punctuation.

[Tony Otim]

Sept 12, 2018 12:54:22 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Sept 12, 2018 12:49:48 GMT Tony Otim said:

According to the SOPN it's Ted JEARRAD not Jerrard, so probably not.

So it is.

I just made the mistake of looking up his facebook page and his election address. Tough on punctuation, tough on the causes of punctuation.

I looked at his leaflet when i was doing my prediction. The complete absence of punctuation in the first paragraph made it almost unintelligible.

[matureleft]

On fairly similar boundaries (the Riverside area was in the ward then) Petersfield was a Tory/Labour marginal when I moved back into Cambridge in the late 1970s. Nowadays the Tory vote is almost derisory. The age profile of the area has changed radically - while I was there (1978-85) builders were busily modernising the old terraces typical of much of the housing, attracting young people. Successful attempts to control through traffic and move businesses from behind the terraces to better locations prompted some friction between new arrivals and established older residents.

[obsie]

Sept 8, 2018 8:26:13 GMT froome said:

Sept 8, 2018 7:35:56 GMT finsobruce said:

The Labour candidate in Lambeth is called Scarlett O'Hara!!

There will of course be those of you who don't give a damn.

And with a fascinating second name as well.

www.pronouncenames.com/pronounce/blathnaid