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Post by yellowperil on Sept 7, 2018 15:14:03 GMT
Fascinating- I am amazed how even the spread is, especially the Labour vote where you might expect concentrations to be marked in particular areas. I haven't found a key to the box numbers to identify which area is which? |
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 7, 2018 15:19:26 GMT
As well as postal votes, of course (how do they account for them here?) |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 7, 2018 16:49:05 GMT
Carlisle, Denton Holme - Labour hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | Labour | 647 | 62.5% | +1.4% | +8.6% | +11.2% | +17.7% | Conservative | 254 | 24.5% | -3.4% | +3.9% | +0.3% | +5.4% | Green | 78 | 7.5% | -3.5% | -0.9% | -0.3% | -1.9% | UKIP | 57 | 5.5% | from nowhere | -7.2% | -6.5% | -17.5% | TUSC |
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| -4.2% | -2.0% | -3.8% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -2.7% |
| Total votes | 1,036 |
| 84% | 78% | 78 | 73% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 2½% since May and 2016, ~ 5% since 2015 and ~ 6% since 2014 Council now 25 labour, 22 Conservative, 4 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Cumbria, Denton Holme - Labour hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 |
| since 2009 * | | Labour | 625 | 59.1% | -0.9% | +2.6% |
| +10.1% | Conservative | 292 | 27.6% | +0.6% | +15.9% |
| +4.5% | Green | 94 | 8.9% | +1.9% | +0.6% |
| +0.3% | UKIP | 46 | 4.4% | -1.6% | -14.4% |
| from nowhere | TUSC |
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| -3.2% |
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| Liberal Democrat |
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| -1.6% |
| -12.4% | BNP |
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| -6.7% | Total votes | 1,057 |
| 79% | 85% | | 70% |
* minor boundary change
Swing Labour to Conservative ¾% since 2017, ~ 6½%, if meaningful, since 2013 but Conservative to Labour ~ 3% since 2009
Council now 37 Conservative, 26 labour, 16 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 2 West Cumbria Independent
Fife, Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay - Conservative gain from Labour
based on first preference votes
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | | Conservative | 2,309 | 37.3% | +0.7% | SNP | 1,741 | 28.1% | -2.7% | Labour | 744 | 12.0% | -4.8% | Liberal Democrat | 566 | 9.1% | +4.1% | Independent Collins | 521 | 8.4% | from nowhere | Green | 257 | 4.2% | +0.7% | Independent McIntyre | 40 | 0.6% | from nowhere | Libertarian | 13 | 0.2% | from nowhere | Previous Independent |
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| -7.3% | UKIP |
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| Socialist |
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| Total votes | 6,191 |
| 80% |
Swing SNP to Conservative ~ 1¾% since 2017
Council now 29 SNP, 23 Labour, 15 Conservative, 7 Liberal Democrat
Tameside, Ashton Waterloo - Labour hold
| Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | Labour | 889 | 52.5% | -5.0% | -7.1% | +4.4% | +0.3% | Green | 448 | 26.4% | +12.7% | +11.8% | +20.9% | +9.9% | Conservative | 357 | 21.1% | -7.8% | -4.7% | -3.9% | -10.2% | UKIP |
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| -21.4% |
| Total votes | 1,694 |
| 73% | 65% | 34% | 61% |
Swing, if particularly meaningful, Labour to Green ~9% since May and 2016
Council 51 Labour, 6 Conservative
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2018 16:12:34 GMT
| Con | 2309 | 2312 | 2316 | 2330 | 2455 | 2615 | 2839 | 3244 | | SNP | 1741 | 1741 | 1744 | 1840 | 1950 | 2076 | 2327 |
| | Lab | 744 | 746 | 747 | 794 | 867 | 1058 |
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| | LD | 566 | 568 | 573 | 631 | 738 |
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| | Collins | 521 | 524 | 545 | 565 |
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| | Grn | 257 | 257 | 258 |
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| | | MacIntyre | 40 | 41 |
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| | Libertarian | 13 |
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for transferable vote not many transfers |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 8, 2018 16:21:31 GMT
| Con | 2309 | 2312 | 2316 | 2330 | 2455 | 2615 | 2839 | 3244 | | SNP | 1741 | 1741 | 1744 | 1840 | 1950 | 2076 | 2327 |
| | Lab | 744 | 746 | 747 | 794 | 867 | 1058 |
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| | LD | 566 | 568 | 573 | 631 | 738 |
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| | Collins | 521 | 524 | 545 | 565 |
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| | Grn | 257 | 257 | 258 |
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| | | MacIntyre | 40 | 41 |
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| | Libertarian | 13 |
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for transferable vote not many transfers Partly it was ever thus. Partly the Nats and the Tories have never been the most transfer friendly so when it comes down to those two a lot of votes just don't. |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 8, 2018 16:33:33 GMT
for transferable vote not many transfers Partly it was ever thus. Partly the Nats and the Tories have never been the most transfer friendly so when it comes down to those two a lot of votes just don't. There were 2,141 first preference votes for the 6 candidates other than Conservative and SNP. Of these 1,116 got transferred to either Conservative or SNP one way or another with 1,025 not featuring in the total of the final 2 standing. This means some 52% of the first preference votes of the 6 candidates were ultimately transferred - from memory around par for such elections. The final tally of 3,244 for the Conservatives meant that 52.4% of those voting gave them their vote either as a first or subsequent preference. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 8, 2018 19:28:15 GMT
Partly it was ever thus. Partly the Nats and the Tories have never been the most transfer friendly so when it comes down to those two a lot of votes just don't. There were 2,141 first preference votes for the 6 candidates other than Conservative and SNP. Of these 1,116 got transferred to either Conservative or SNP one way or another with 1,025 not featuring in the total of the final 2 standing. This means some 52% of the first preference votes of the 6 candidates were ultimately transferred - from memory around par for such elections. The final tally of 3,244 for the Conservatives meant that 52.4% of those voting gave them their vote either as a first or subsequent preference. Just playing with the numbers a bit. 69% of voters gave a second preference (meaning 31% only gave a first preference) Only 46.7% gave a third preference (meaning over half didn't) 28.6%gave a 4th preference 11.7% gave a 5th 9.5% gave a 6th 8.8% gave a 7th and 8.3% gave a redundant 8th preference. Of the 3244 who gave a preference for the Conservative, 172 had them as 8th preference, which means that just over half (50.4%) the voters either didn't preference them or had them ranked below all the other candidates |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 9, 2018 9:48:59 GMT
Cumbria, Denton Holme - Labour hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 |
| since 2009 * | | Labour | 625 | 59.1% | -0.9% | +2.6% |
| +10.1% | Conservative | 292 | 27.6% | +0.6% | +15.9% |
| +4.5% | Green | 94 | 8.9% | +1.9% | +0.6% |
| +0.3% | UKIP | 46 | 4.4% | -1.6% | -14.4% |
| from nowhere | TUSC |
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| -3.2% |
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| Liberal Democrat |
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| -1.6% |
| -12.4% | BNP |
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| -6.7% | Total votes | 1,057 |
| 79% | 85% | | 70% |
* minor boundary change
Swing Labour to Conservative ¾% since 2017, ~ 6½%, if meaningful, since 2013 and ~ 3% since 2009
Council now 37 Conservative, 26 labour, 16 liberal democrat, 3 Independent, 2 West Cumbria Independent
It is actually a Con to Lab swing since 2009, I have checked the LEAP result for that year to confirm this. |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 9, 2018 16:24:14 GMT
Cumbria, Denton Holme - Labour hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 |
| since 2009 * | | Labour | 625 | 59.1% | -0.9% | +2.6% |
| +10.1% | Conservative | 292 | 27.6% | +0.6% | +15.9% |
| +4.5% | Green | 94 | 8.9% | +1.9% | +0.6% |
| +0.3% | UKIP | 46 | 4.4% | -1.6% | -14.4% |
| from nowhere | TUSC |
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| -3.2% |
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| Liberal Democrat |
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| -1.6% |
| -12.4% | BNP |
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| -6.7% | Total votes | 1,057 |
| 79% | 85% | | 70% |
* minor boundary change
Swing Labour to Conservative ¾% since 2017, ~ 6½%, if meaningful, since 2013 and ~ 3% since 2009
Council now 37 Conservative, 26 labour, 16 liberal democrat, 3 Independent, 2 West Cumbria Independent
It is actually a Con to Lab swing since 2009, I have checked the LEAP result for that year to confirm this. You are correct. Now amended. 2009 was the worst County Council election year for Labour, so any Labour to Conservative swing from then is not very common. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Sept 15, 2018 7:49:38 GMT
The Fife result is hardly a massive triumph for the Tories. In AV by-elections for seats won under multi-seat STV, there will always be some like this one. Not good for Labour though. I'll remember to quote this if the Lib Dems win by a fraction at a Scottish by-election. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,438 
Member is Online
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Post by iain on Sept 15, 2018 8:52:32 GMT
The Fife result is hardly a massive triumph for the Tories. In AV by-elections for seats won under multi-seat STV, there will always be some like this one. Not good for Labour though. I'll remember to quote this if the Lib Dems win by a fraction at a Scottish by-election. It’s not about winning by a fraction. It’s about gaining seats in wards where you are already the leading party. |
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