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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 17:24:00 GMT
Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 3, 2024 17:24:00 GMT
Oh is just that postcode search tjhing? No spreadsheet?
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 835
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Post by Sg1 on Apr 3, 2024 17:28:09 GMT
Of course we shouldn't have ID cards. The current government is one of the most right wing I've ever known, hating on every minority group they can point at. Imagine if an even more right wing lot got in. Yeah, a real government of haters. An Indian PM, a black Home Secretary, a Jewish Deputy PM, a black Trade and Equality Secretary, a Chancellor in an interracial marriage etc. Not to mention large numbers of gay, non-white and a trans MP. Frankly, this is the most diverse government, and perhaps the most diverse governing party in this country's history. Just because we aren't pro-DEI fanatics, or in favour of denigrating this country's history, or its culture, or just because we because we refuse to pretend that females and homosexuals don't exist, does not mean we "hate minorities". It means this government is very modestly conservative and believes in biological fact, biological facts that were universally recognised since we crawled out of the ocean until about three years ago. I misread that as crawled out of the ocean about three years ago. MRP seems mostly plausible on current polling. Seems to be overstating the Lib Dems though. I wonder with unusual results such as Uxbridge and Rochdale suggesting a more mixed battlefield if we we will see a resurgence of constituency polling?
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,080
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Post by maxque on Apr 3, 2024 17:28:18 GMT
Of course we shouldn't have ID cards. The current government is one of the most right wing I've ever known, hating on every minority group they can point at. Imagine if an even more right wing lot got in. Yeah, a real government of haters. An Indian PM, a black Home Secretary, a Jewish Deputy PM, a black Trade and Equality Secretary, a Chancellor in an interracial marriage etc. Not to mention large numbers of gay, non-white and a trans MP. Frankly, this is the most diverse government, and perhaps the most diverse governing party in this country's history. Just because we aren't pro-DEI fanatics, or in favour of denigrating this country's history, or its culture, or just because we because we refuse to pretend that females and homosexuals don't exist, does not mean we "hate minorities". It means this government is very modestly conservative and believes in biological fact, biological facts that were universally recognised since we crawled out of the ocean until about three years ago. Many on the left have forgotten the true cleavage and that's income. On that measure, there is no diversity in government, this is a bunch of ultra wealthy people and bankers who despise the unwashed masses and try to funnel as much wealth as possible to their donors and friends.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,369
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 3, 2024 17:28:31 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 3, 2024 17:29:32 GMT
Yeah, a real government of haters. An Indian PM, a black Home Secretary, a Jewish Deputy PM, a black Trade and Equality Secretary, a Chancellor in an interracial marriage etc. Not to mention large numbers of gay, non-white and a trans MP. Frankly, this is the most diverse government, and perhaps the most diverse governing party in this country's history. Just because we aren't pro-DEI fanatics, or in favour of denigrating this country's history, or its culture, or just because we because we refuse to pretend that females and homosexuals don't exist, does not mean we "hate minorities". It means this government is very modestly conservative and believes in biological fact, biological facts that were universally recognised since we crawled out of the ocean until about three years ago. I misread that as crawled out of the ocean about three years ago.MRP seems mostly plausible on current polling. Seems to be overstating the Lib Dems though. I wonder with unusual results such as Uxbridge and Rochdale suggesting a more mixed battlefield if we we will see a resurgence of constituency polling? An early front runner for Forum mis reading of the year.
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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 17:31:02 GMT
via mobile
Post by evergreenadam on Apr 3, 2024 17:31:02 GMT
Methodological change in this one, which brings it more in line with E Calculus. But EC makes allowances for by-election gains, and this doesn't. So, for example, Lab. doesn't hold on to Mid-Beds, but comes 2nd (to Tories) in North Shropshire, and in Tiverton and Honiton. Also I question whether Green voters are as uniformly distributed as this suggests they are. But otherwise, pretty credible, nothing very counter-intuitive. The boundary changes move the more strongly Labour parts of Mid-Bedfordshire in the new Hitchin seat, where Alistair Strathern will be standing, and the YouGov MRP still only puts Labour 2 points down in the new Mid-Beds. I find the precitions here much more convincing than the EC ones which predict Labour gains in Torridge & Tavistock, Devon Central, Didcot & Wantage, and Skipton and Ripon, among others. On the face it, seems more credible than the Survation MRP. Don’t quite understand how Chesham & Amersham is a Lib Dem gain but Honiton and Sidmouth is not? That said the Tiverton & Minehead seat is now very close, so maybe they put the by-election Lib Dem supporters disproportionately in the Tiverton part of the seat. Lib Dem gain Tunbridge Wells would be funny. Not sure why Harpenden and Berkhampstead would be a Tory hold, it seems like it has the demographic for a Lib Dem gain.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 835
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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 17:31:38 GMT
via mobile
Post by Sg1 on Apr 3, 2024 17:31:38 GMT
I misread that as crawled out of the ocean about three years ago.MRP seems mostly plausible on current polling. Seems to be overstating the Lib Dems though. I wonder with unusual results such as Uxbridge and Rochdale suggesting a more mixed battlefield if we we will see a resurgence of constituency polling? An early front runner for Forum mis reading of the year. TBF might have helped at the time with social distancing if we all just went for a dip.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 3, 2024 17:33:16 GMT
Yeah, a real government of haters. An Indian PM, a black Home Secretary, a Jewish Deputy PM, a black Trade and Equality Secretary, a Chancellor in an interracial marriage etc. Not to mention large numbers of gay, non-white and a trans MP. Frankly, this is the most diverse government, and perhaps the most diverse governing party in this country's history. Just because we aren't pro-DEI fanatics, or in favour of denigrating this country's history, or its culture, or just because we because we refuse to pretend that females and homosexuals don't exist, does not mean we "hate minorities". It means this government is very modestly conservative and believes in biological fact, biological facts that were universally recognised since we crawled out of the ocean until about three years ago. Many on the left have forgotten the true cleavage and that's income. On that measure, there is no diversity in government, this is a bunch of ultra wealthy people and bankers who despise the unwashed masses and try to funnel as much wealth as possible to their donors and friends. That's an argument I have little issue with. You can claim that a government of predominantly wealthy people is out of touch or aloof, and I would have some agreement with that. To claim they're racist etc. as Doktorb did is for the birds though.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 3, 2024 17:39:55 GMT
The boundary changes move the more strongly Labour parts of Mid-Bedfordshire in the new Hitchin seat, where Alistair Strathern will be standing, and the YouGov MRP still only puts Labour 2 points down in the new Mid-Beds. I find the precitions here much more convincing than the EC ones which predict Labour gains in Torridge & Tavistock, Devon Central, Didcot & Wantage, and Skipton and Ripon, among others. On the face it, seems more credible than the Survation MRP. Don’t quite understand how Chesham & Amersham is a Lib Dem gain but Honiton and Sidmouth is not? That said the Tiverton & Minehead seat is now very close, so maybe they put the by-election Lib Dem supporters disproportionately in the Tiverton part of the seat. Lib Dem gain Tunbridge Wells would be funny. Not sure why Harpenden and Berkhampstead would be a Tory hold, it seems like it has the demographic for a Lib Dem gain. I think Chesham and Amersham is a more likely LD win that either Honiton & Sidmouth or Tiverton & Minehead. The current arrangements around Tiverton were hardly great for the LD’s pre by election but the new arrangements are even worse. Both the Minehead/ W Somerset area and Sidmouth and surrounds are less promising areas for the LDs. Foord had a tricky choice as I suspect, and local election results indicate, that he did better in Tiverton than Honiton, but the Minehead area is less promising than the Sidmouth area. I think Honiton & Sidmouth will be close this year.
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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 17:58:27 GMT
YL likes this
Post by stodge on Apr 3, 2024 17:58:27 GMT
A few observations on the MRP.
It starts with actual seats won in 2019 which is fine except the boundaries are now different. The 2019 result on the 2024 boundaries would have increased the Conservative majority with the party winning 372 seats rather than 365 seats so a projected seat tally of 155 accentuates the loss which is greater than 1997 when the Conservatives went from a notional 343 to 165.
Second, the VI behind the numbers is 41-24-12-12-7 (Lab/Con/LD/Ref/Green). The 15% swing from Conservative to Labour is well beyond the 1997 swing and is more akin to Labour winning the 1997 election starting from the 1987 position rather than the 1992 - that's the scale of it. That swing would the biggest in any election in more than a century eclipsing both 1997 and 1945.
Third, what does the MRP model suggest about tactical voting? There are 110 seats which are won by either Conservative or Labour with a margin of 0-5%. Of these, 64 are won by the Conservatives so it wouldn't need a lot of anti-Conservative tactical voting to inflict a further 30-40 losses. Similarly, there are 32 seats where the LDs and Conservatives are split by between zero and five points. The Conservatives hold 18, the LDs win 14. A small amount of tactical voting for the LD candidate by Labour supporters and that could be another 10 seats out of the Conservative column.
The gap between 100 and 155 seats is really that small.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 835
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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 18:17:35 GMT
via mobile
Post by Sg1 on Apr 3, 2024 18:17:35 GMT
Strange results for Glasgow South and North Ayrshire & Arran. Any particular reason why the SNP would do so well specifically in these two seats?
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Post by batman on Apr 3, 2024 18:28:06 GMT
Of course we shouldn't have ID cards. The current government is one of the most right wing I've ever known, hating on every minority group they can point at. Imagine if an even more right wing lot got in. Yeah, a real government of haters. An Indian PM, a black Home Secretary, a Jewish Deputy PM, a black Trade and Equality Secretary, a Chancellor in an interracial marriage etc. Not to mention large numbers of gay, non-white and a trans MP. Frankly, this is the most diverse government, and perhaps the most diverse governing party in this country's history. Just because we aren't pro-DEI fanatics, or in favour of denigrating this country's history, or its culture, or just because we because we refuse to pretend that females and homosexuals don't exist, does not mean we "hate minorities". It means this government is very modestly conservative and believes in biological fact, biological facts that were universally recognised since we crawled out of the ocean until about three years ago. Oliver Dowden has good links with the Jewish community, but he is not Jewish.
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 3, 2024 18:49:32 GMT
Methodological change in this one, which brings it more in line with E Calculus. But EC makes allowances for by-election gains, and this doesn't. So, for example, Lab. doesn't hold on to Mid-Beds, but comes 2nd (to Tories) in North Shropshire, and in Tiverton and Honiton. Also I question whether Green voters are as uniformly distributed as this suggests they are. But otherwise, pretty credible, nothing very counter-intuitive. Yes. YouGov pioneered MRP analysis with some success, and these figures are much more credible than similar exercises from other pollsters. The methodology change looks at proportionate shifts, and shows swings as being intermediate between the traditional straight percentage, and the proportionate percentage, which reflects the actual historical pattern (as well as being common sense). One minor point of interest is that they show the Greens moving into many (distant) second places in safe Labour seats. The Liberal Democrat gains look high to me given the static voting intention, but the Conservatives are at such low ebb in the polls that the Liberal Democrats essentially would gain some seats by default. While there's no win from here for the Conservatives, I still expect some recovery, which would shift large numbers of these seats. The real danger is I think from Reform, as if they gain traction it will stymie the Conservative recovery. The MRP shows Reform in second place in far more Labour seats than Conservative ones. Of course MRP projections if done honestly will not incorporate by-election results. But they ought to be able to pick up on tactical voting if the polling can establish people's openness to this, and YouGov seem to have this covered, unlike some of the amateurish tries by other pollsters. Recommend this as a much better guide than universal swing/electoral calculus.
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Post by evergreenadam on Apr 3, 2024 19:09:21 GMT
A few observations on the MRP. It starts with actual seats won in 2019 which is fine except the boundaries are now different. The 2019 result on the 2024 boundaries would have increased the Conservative majority with the party winning 372 seats rather than 365 seats so a projected seat tally of 155 accentuates the loss which is greater than 1997 when the Conservatives went from a notional 343 to 165. Second, the VI behind the numbers is 41-24-12-12-7 (Lab/Con/LD/Ref/Green). The 15% swing from Conservative to Labour is well beyond the 1997 swing and is more akin to Labour winning the 1997 election starting from the 1987 position rather than the 1992 - that's the scale of it. That swing would the biggest in any election in more than a century eclipsing both 1997 and 1945. Third, what does the MRP model suggest about tactical voting? There are 110 seats which are won by either Conservative or Labour with a margin of 0-5%. Of these, 64 are won by the Conservatives so it wouldn't need a lot of anti-Conservative tactical voting to inflict a further 30-40 losses. Similarly, there are 32 seats where the LDs and Conservatives are split by between zero and five points. The Conservatives hold 18, the LDs win 14. A small amount of tactical voting for the LD candidate by Labour supporters and that could be another 10 seats out of the Conservative column. The gap between 100 and 155 seats is really that small. Yes, the Tories and the Lib Dems are within a few percentage points of each other in lot of those southern seats, often on relatively low shares of the vote for the winner, so small movements could make a big difference to seat tallies and even the margin of error would do.
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Post by carolus on Apr 3, 2024 22:12:01 GMT
The boundary changes move the more strongly Labour parts of Mid-Bedfordshire in the new Hitchin seat, where Alistair Strathern will be standing, and the YouGov MRP still only puts Labour 2 points down in the new Mid-Beds. I find the precitions here much more convincing than the EC ones which predict Labour gains in Torridge & Tavistock, Devon Central, Didcot & Wantage, and Skipton and Ripon, among others. On the face it, seems more credible than the Survation MRP. Don’t quite understand how Chesham & Amersham is a Lib Dem gain but Honiton and Sidmouth is not? That said the Tiverton & Minehead seat is now very close, so maybe they put the by-election Lib Dem supporters disproportionately in the Tiverton part of the seat. Yougov, for some unknown-but-foolish reason, seem to ignore byelections in their predictions. This is been noted in previous ones as well, but can be seen in various places in this one as well (e.g. North Shropshire). I think in this case it means that they are projecting an LD gain in C&A from the 2019 baseline - it would be somewhere around 60th on our Con-facing target list, similar to some other seats this MRP has us winning, like Maidenhead, Torbay, Stratford. H&S and T&M would be substantially further down the list based on 2019.
I've said it before, but it seems pretty rubbish to make a big deal of your seat by seat projections, then fail to include major pieces of relevant data, like byelection results.
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xenon
Non-Aligned
Posts: 268
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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 23:31:52 GMT
via mobile
Post by xenon on Apr 3, 2024 23:31:52 GMT
Can the Conservative seat tally in Scotland really be as resilient as that? 5-6 seats for the Scottish Tories in a scenario where the party is down to 150ish nationally? In pretty much every Tory seat in England, the Tories will be losing vote share and the second place party will be gaining vote share. However, the Scottish Tory seats, it is very likely that the second-placed SNP vote share will be declining to a similar degree, so it is really a case of who falls further.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Apr 4, 2024 6:41:35 GMT
Of course we shouldn't have ID cards. The current government is one of the most right wing I've ever known, hating on every minority group they can point at. Imagine if an even more right wing lot got in. The key to your statement is that the current government is the most right wing one you've ever known. Even that is doubtful, because even though some of the retoric from some of its members can seem impolite and attacking, the governments actual policies have generally been moderate centre ground stuff not right wing at all.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Apr 4, 2024 7:02:45 GMT
Strange results for Glasgow South and North Ayrshire & Arran. Any particular reason why the SNP would do so well specifically in these two seats? The only discernable feature I can think of is that North Ayrshire & Arran, Glasgow South and Paisley & Renfrewshire North have sizeable middle-class communities where the SNP perform reasonably well. Central Ayrshire and Glasgow West also have numerous middle class areas. In Central Ayrshire's case, these tend to be Conservative-leaning with the SNP in second-place. In Glasgow West, these areas have been drifting to Labour and the Greens. There is obviously room for error in these MRPs and I suspect the stronger figures for the SNP in North Ayrshire & Arran and Glasgow South compared to neighbouring seats will not materialise in an election.
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Post by matureleft on Apr 4, 2024 7:54:53 GMT
Of course we shouldn't have ID cards. The current government is one of the most right wing I've ever known, hating on every minority group they can point at. Imagine if an even more right wing lot got in. The key to your statement is that the current government is the most right wing one you've ever known. Even that is doubtful, because even though some of the retoric from some of its members can seem impolite and attacking, the governments actual policies have generally been moderate centre ground stuff not right wing at all.That's thankfully pretty fair and is one of the sources of their problem. They throw red meat in speeches and sometimes in policy announcements. But actually doing what they say has been defeated, not by 'woke' conspirators but by either straightforward impracticality and poor design, or a failure of will (or even genuine intent - they may baldly never have really planned to do what was said at least in the form understood by their supporters, or meant to back up what their licensed outriders like Anderson actually said). To some extent that's all normal politics. But the shape of the 2019 Tory coalition has forced them to extremes of this behaviour. They must satisfy what they assume to be the beliefs of their recent converts while keeping on board the remaining traditional core (that had already been disturbed by Brexit). With the huge help of a very unusual issue (Brexit), an alarming opposition leader (Corbyn - well not very but that's the picture) they put the winning programme together with a heavy coating of vagueness (and a bit of Johnson) to cover the cracks. Repeating that trick is incredibly hard with Brexit both in the past and somewhat tarnished. The formula is a lot of noisy or culture wars stuff amounting to little, plus some promised traditional tax cuts. And the team skills in delivering this awkward-shaped package are pretty ordinary. The effect has been severely to disappoint those who genuinely want a nativist party while failing to satisfy the bulk of their traditional electorate who want an economical and well-run government.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,762
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YouGov
Apr 4, 2024 12:21:55 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Apr 4, 2024 12:21:55 GMT
Yeah, a real government of haters. An Indian PM, a black Home Secretary, a Jewish Deputy PM, a black Trade and Equality Secretary, a Chancellor in an interracial marriage etc. Not to mention large numbers of gay, non-white and a trans MP. Frankly, this is the most diverse government, and perhaps the most diverse governing party in this country's history. Just because we aren't pro-DEI fanatics, or in favour of denigrating this country's history, or its culture, or just because we because we refuse to pretend that females and homosexuals don't exist, does not mean we "hate minorities". It means this government is very modestly conservative and believes in biological fact, biological facts that were universally recognised since we crawled out of the ocean until about three years ago. Many on the left have forgotten the true cleavage and that's income. On that measure, there is no diversity in government, this is a bunch of ultra wealthy people and bankers who despise the unwashed masses and try to funnel as much wealth as possible to their donors and friends. It is also worth noting that when it comes to *income* - as opposed to the much vaguer and often abused concept of "class" - people still vote much more as you would "traditionally" expect them to, even at what was in many ways an unusual election in 2019.
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