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Post by stodge on Mar 24, 2024 20:39:50 GMT
I was musing this evening on how politics would change IF the LDs ended up the official opposition.
PMQs would be different - it would be much harder for Prime Minister Starmer to blame "the party opposite" for anything and everything since the LDs weren't the Government. It might be a less adversarial experience but I suspect Davey would be able to be quite free to attack the Government for not being radical enough - I mean, if you can't be radical with a 200+ majority what's the point?
Could the surviving Tory rump schism further with those on the "One Nation" side switching to the LDs? Would we see the media switch to having Labour and LD speakers only leaving the Conservative to have just GB News as their mouthpiece? Would we see some of the printed media shift from hardline support of the Conservatives to a more nuanced anti-Government position?
Final thought - what if the Conservatives and LDs ended on the same number of seats? Who would then form the official opposition?
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 24, 2024 20:44:30 GMT
Think we're heading into Alternative History territory!
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Post by woollyliberal on Mar 24, 2024 20:45:19 GMT
what if the Conservatives and LDs ended on the same number of seats? Who would then form the official opposition? The first by-election of the next parliament would be VERY fiercely fought. I'm still rooting for a 52/48 election. 52 LD MPs and 48 Tories. Can you imagine the fallout?
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Post by islington on Mar 24, 2024 20:46:30 GMT
I can see you put a lot of thought into that, OFL, and if you were commenting after such a result, I’d agree with you, but I feel I need to put this in capitals, THE TORIES WILL NOT END UP WITH 36 SEATS! Absolutely, but it's amusing to imagine the looks on their entitled faces as they go down one by one! An understandable response, and there's no harm in a little wholesome epicaricacy between friends.
But I cast my mind back to the Tories' most calamitous GE of my lifetime, namely that of 1997, my enduring memory of election night coverage is the calmness and aplomb with which most Tories accepted their fate. Cecil Parkinson was a partial exception, but he gave the impression of having had too much to drink before appearing on air. But overall, Tories seemed to accept the outcome with stoicism and even a touch of humility, leavened by a certain amount of gallows humour. We all recall the Portillo moment, but in fairness it should also be remembered that Portillo's concession speech was a model of good grace, and his references to his victorious opponent were markedly generous in tone.
So if you are hoping for tears and tantrums you may be in for a disappointment. Or maybe not, because there's an argument that today's Tories are less well brought up than their predecessors of 1997. And of course, given current polling it remains very possible that the forthcoming GE may be even worse, from the Tory point of view, than that of 1997.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Mar 24, 2024 21:03:59 GMT
It’s not going to be straightforward for the TV companies in terms of choosing which declarations to televise. Quite a lot of the Tories in the most marginal seats, particularly in the red wall, won’t stand again and a Labour gain from a new Tory candidate isn’t quite the same story from a news perspective. Do the media assume the real juicy stories will be in the 10000-20000 majority range? They’ll be camped out in Jeremy Hunt’s count-although him retiring still wouldn’t surprise me- and Penny Mordaunt’s and Grant Shapps’ Although I think Hunt and Mordaunt would both be in the Portilloesque very dignified in defeat mold.
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 24, 2024 21:49:54 GMT
Can they bring back Peter Snow's collapsing cliff landslide graphic burying Tory ministers as it goes?
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YouGov
Mar 24, 2024 22:00:41 GMT
Post by johnloony on Mar 24, 2024 22:00:41 GMT
Absolutely, but it's amusing to imagine the looks on their entitled faces as they go down one by one! An understandable response, and there's no harm in a little wholesome epicaricacy between friends. But I cast my mind back to the Tories' most calamitous GE of my lifetime, namely that of 1997, my enduring memory of election night coverage is the calmness and aplomb with which most Tories accepted their fate. Cecil Parkinson was a partial exception, but he gave the impression of having had too much to drink before appearing on air. But overall, Tories seemed to accept the outcome with stoicism and even a touch of humility, leavened by a certain amount of gallows humour. We all recall the Portillo moment, but in fairness it should also be remembered that Portillo's concession speech was a model of good grace, and his references to his victorious opponent were markedly generous in tone. So if you are hoping for tears and tantrums you may be in for a disappointment. Or maybe not, because there's an argument that today's Tories are less well brought up than their predecessors of 1997. And of course, given current polling it remains very possible that the forthcoming GE may be even worse, from the Tory point of view, than that of 1997.
I remember that on election night in 1997 there was some footage of copious sobbing by one or two women of-a-certain-age as they were leaving their count - I think it was shortly after the Portillo declaration. But they would have been rank-and-file members rather than front-line politicians.
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batman
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Post by batman on Mar 24, 2024 22:57:32 GMT
Absolutely, but it's amusing to imagine the looks on their entitled faces as they go down one by one! An understandable response, and there's no harm in a little wholesome epicaricacy between friends.
But I cast my mind back to the Tories' most calamitous GE of my lifetime, namely that of 1997, my enduring memory of election night coverage is the calmness and aplomb with which most Tories accepted their fate. Cecil Parkinson was a partial exception, but he gave the impression of having had too much to drink before appearing on air. But overall, Tories seemed to accept the outcome with stoicism and even a touch of humility, leavened by a certain amount of gallows humour. We all recall the Portillo moment, but in fairness it should also be remembered that Portillo's concession speech was a model of good grace, and his references to his victorious opponent were markedly generous in tone.
So if you are hoping for tears and tantrums you may be in for a disappointment. Or maybe not, because there's an argument that today's Tories are less well brought up than their predecessors of 1997. And of course, given current polling it remains very possible that the forthcoming GE may be even worse, from the Tory point of view, than that of 1997.
I have never before seen or heard the word epicaricacy
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Mar 24, 2024 23:08:03 GMT
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 24, 2024 23:08:03 GMT
An understandable response, and there's no harm in a little wholesome epicaricacy between friends.
But I cast my mind back to the Tories' most calamitous GE of my lifetime, namely that of 1997, my enduring memory of election night coverage is the calmness and aplomb with which most Tories accepted their fate. Cecil Parkinson was a partial exception, but he gave the impression of having had too much to drink before appearing on air. But overall, Tories seemed to accept the outcome with stoicism and even a touch of humility, leavened by a certain amount of gallows humour. We all recall the Portillo moment, but in fairness it should also be remembered that Portillo's concession speech was a model of good grace, and his references to his victorious opponent were markedly generous in tone.
So if you are hoping for tears and tantrums you may be in for a disappointment. Or maybe not, because there's an argument that today's Tories are less well brought up than their predecessors of 1997. And of course, given current polling it remains very possible that the forthcoming GE may be even worse, from the Tory point of view, than that of 1997.
I have never before seen or heard the word epicaricacy 'Tis often indulged in at the Willows, Blackburn, on Quiz night.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Mar 25, 2024 1:14:26 GMT
Final thought - what if the Conservatives and LDs ended on the same number of seats? Who would then form the official opposition? Whoever can scramble faster to get enough Others to caucus with them and be the larger grouping. When Labour and the LibDems ended up equal on the new North Yorkshire council, the LibDems persuaded the one Liberal to group with them to get the numbers.
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Post by stodge on Mar 25, 2024 13:31:54 GMT
My recollection of 1997 was partly the good grace of Portillo (until the Paxman interview) and certainly at the St Ives count, the generous applause for the former MP, David Harris.
The other part of it was stunned shock - I've spoken to a few Tories over the years and the experience was not that they couldn't believe what was happening but that it was so contrary to their own doorstep experience. People weren't slamming the door in their face or setting the leopard on them - the execution was done politely, with charm and even a smile and kept until the sanctity of the polling station.
Ever since then, I've always doubted canvass returns and anecdotal evidence from canvassers. The British voter is at his or her most charming when they are going to turn on you and vote for the other candidate.
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Post by johnloony on Mar 25, 2024 13:49:30 GMT
My recollection of 1997 was partly the good grace of Portillo (until the Paxman interview) and certainly at the St Ives count, the generous applause for the former MP, David Harris. The other part of it was stunned shock - I've spoken to a few Tories over the years and the experience was not that they couldn't believe what was happening but that it was so contrary to their own doorstep experience. People weren't slamming the door in their face or setting the leopard on them - the execution was done politely, with charm and even a smile and kept until the sanctity of the polling station. Ever since then, I've always doubted canvass returns and anecdotal evidence from canvassers. The British voter is at his or her most charming when they are going to turn on you and vote for the other candidate. Raw canvassing data has to be taken with knobs on and a pinch of salt through rose-tinted glasses at the wrong end of a telescope in a dark room where the black cat isn’t there, but experienced canvassing teams or parties with long-term data would know how to compare one set of data with a similar set from the same area five years earlier. Also in 1997 there would have been a lot of people in the Labour Party who didn’t dare to hope that they really would win, after all the disappointments of the past (especially 1992), and didn’t want to think it was actually happening until it actually did. Conversely, Conservatives would have expected that a heavy defeat was likely, but kept their hopes alive due to conflicting signals from doorsteps.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 25, 2024 13:52:35 GMT
My recollection of 1997 was partly the good grace of Portillo (until the Paxman interview) and certainly at the St Ives count, the generous applause for the former MP, David Harris. The other part of it was stunned shock - I've spoken to a few Tories over the years and the experience was not that they couldn't believe what was happening but that it was so contrary to their own doorstep experience. People weren't slamming the door in their face or setting the leopard on them - the execution was done politely, with charm and even a smile and kept until the sanctity of the polling station. Ever since then, I've always doubted canvass returns and anecdotal evidence from canvassers. The British voter is at his or her most charming when they are going to turn on you and vote for the other candidate. I cannot believe that any attentive follower of the political scene could have been unaware of the very heavy defeat that lay in store for the Conservatives in '97. It was apparent to me two years out that defeat was near inevitable and rather overdue. The rather more surprising 'win' in '92 was the event that took many more by surprise. But, again I became increasingly certain of 'Labour Loss' (and make no mistake here it was a Labour loss far more than a Conservative win) as the campaign unfolded with an ebullient Kinnock who even had a bit of swagger about him that played ill with the non-Labour middle ground that the more cunning Major made a great play towards. These matters can surprise the poorly informed an the unwary, but the only real surprise to me was 1970 and to a lesser extent the two in '74 where my hopes exceeded rational expectation.
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batman
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Post by batman on Mar 25, 2024 15:49:31 GMT
I agree with Carlton. It was obvious to me as a regular party worker in a key marginal that there was going to be a very big swing to Labour and few of the results were that surprising especially after the first result from Sunderland S confirmed that even safe Labour seats would see big swings, with the likelihood of bigger ones in Tory-held seats.
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YouGov
Mar 25, 2024 17:55:07 GMT
Post by adlai52 on Mar 25, 2024 17:55:07 GMT
I was musing this evening on how politics would change IF the LDs ended up the official opposition. PMQs would be different - it would be much harder for Prime Minister Starmer to blame "the party opposite" for anything and everything since the LDs weren't the Government. It might be a less adversarial experience but I suspect Davey would be able to be quite free to attack the Government for not being radical enough - I mean, if you can't be radical with a 200+ majority what's the point? Could the surviving Tory rump schism further with those on the "One Nation" side switching to the LDs? Would we see the media switch to having Labour and LD speakers only leaving the Conservative to have just GB News as their mouthpiece? Would we see some of the printed media shift from hardline support of the Conservatives to a more nuanced anti-Government position? Final thought - what if the Conservatives and LDs ended on the same number of seats? Who would then form the official opposition? In such a scenario the LibDems would have become a party of the Home Counties and affluent suburbs - so there would be a strong incentive for them to tack to the right on a range of economic issues, but that is something that LibDem MPs and Activists might resist. Under a Labour government space on the Left would also open up - but the Greens or another new Party would be better placed to exploit that, even if the LibDems wanted to.
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 28, 2024 9:35:15 GMT
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msc
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Post by msc on Mar 28, 2024 10:19:39 GMT
My recollection of 1997 was partly the good grace of Portillo (until the Paxman interview) and certainly at the St Ives count, the generous applause for the former MP, David Harris. The other part of it was stunned shock - I've spoken to a few Tories over the years and the experience was not that they couldn't believe what was happening but that it was so contrary to their own doorstep experience. People weren't slamming the door in their face or setting the leopard on them - the execution was done politely, with charm and even a smile and kept until the sanctity of the polling station. Ever since then, I've always doubted canvass returns and anecdotal evidence from canvassers. The British voter is at his or her most charming when they are going to turn on you and vote for the other candidate. I cannot believe that any attentive follower of the political scene could have been unaware of the very heavy defeat that lay in store for the Conservatives in '97. It was apparent to me two years out that defeat was near inevitable and rather overdue. The rather more surprising 'win' in '92 was the event that took many more by surprise. But, again I became increasingly certain of 'Labour Loss' (and make no mistake here it was a Labour loss far more than a Conservative win) as the campaign unfolded with an ebullient Kinnock who even had a bit of swagger about him that played ill with the non-Labour middle ground that the more cunning Major made a great play towards. These matters can surprise the poorly informed an the unwary, but the only real surprise to me was 1970 and to a lesser extent the two in '74 where my hopes exceeded rational expectation. 1997 election night I was ten years old, but my mum and dad woke me and my sister up so we could "see history" and I'll admit some of the results are still embedded on my memory. 1992 I was far too young, so only know of it as a historical event, but I've read through the polling history of the time, and the narrative of a Labour win seemingly likely to people feels strange. The vast majority of the polling taken after Major became Prime Minister was considerably friendlier to the Tories (and I believe less than 1 in 4 polls from the 1991-election period actually projected a Labour majority). Mum is friends with John Curtice and apparently the team was getting hell from all sides after the exit poll went up in 1992. (And 2010, 2015, 2017, etc etc, come to think of it.) Also, I'll add that my Great Aunt, sadly no longer with us, voted in every election from 1950 to 2017, and she agreed with you, that the only election result she found surprising was 1970. (Actually, in 2017 I phoned her at 10am to check she had the transport to go and vote, and she'd already voted two hours before!)
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pl
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Post by pl on Mar 28, 2024 10:33:24 GMT
My recollection of 1997 was partly the good grace of Portillo (until the Paxman interview) and certainly at the St Ives count, the generous applause for the former MP, David Harris. The other part of it was stunned shock - I've spoken to a few Tories over the years and the experience was not that they couldn't believe what was happening but that it was so contrary to their own doorstep experience. People weren't slamming the door in their face or setting the leopard on them - the execution was done politely, with charm and even a smile and kept until the sanctity of the polling station. Ever since then, I've always doubted canvass returns and anecdotal evidence from canvassers. The British voter is at his or her most charming when they are going to turn on you and vote for the other candidate. This happened in a number of places in May 2023 as well. Everyone knew the local elections were going to be bad for Conservatives, but maybe not THAT bad. When prompted for a voting intention, Conservatives not intending to vote Conservative will often say things like "I usually vote Conservative" and not much more - it takes a great deal of experience to interpret that statement. So a Conservative candidate can hear that for most of a canvassing session, and think that voters are upset, but they'll hold their nose. The reality can be quite different.
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polupolu
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Post by polupolu on Mar 28, 2024 10:53:20 GMT
Electoral Calculus (usual caveats): Lab 456 Con 90 LD 61 SNP 18 PC 4 Grn 2 Oth 1 (Ashfield??)
Ref 1
Maj 262
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 28, 2024 14:04:14 GMT
Some people getting rather excited about the Labour drop in this poll, strangely enough often the same ones who got very giddy when they fell 5 points in a single survey last month. It might be worth also remembering that we are now entering a holiday period, and polls can sometimes do slightly odd things then.
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