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Post by johnloony on Mar 23, 2024 1:21:28 GMT
If the Lib Dems get more MPs than Tories with less than 50% of the Tory vote and Reform UK get 0 MPs with a much high % than Lib Dems, the clamour for voting reform becomes unstoppable- especially if Labour abuse their majority. The clamour becomes louder, but not unstoppable. We already have two extremely blatant examples of FPTP producing ridiculous outcomes in recent history (1983 and 2015), and neither election had the result of moving us measurably closer to PR. It depends what you mean by “ridiculous”. The sort of disproportionality which I am concerned about is the blance between the two main parties. I am less concerned about the minor parties. If we had PR (STV or lists) I would want a small district magnitude - about 2 or 3 seats per constituency in most cases.
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YouGov
Mar 24, 2024 6:32:40 GMT
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 24, 2024 6:32:40 GMT
A few weeks ago, I'd have poo pooed the idea of crossover. But the Tories continue to drop and Reform continue to rise. It would only take another 2 points in some polls for them to meet in the middle. It already has happened in a way. Reform leads the Conservatives among men by 19% - 17% in that poll.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,819
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YouGov
Mar 24, 2024 7:24:40 GMT
Post by Harry Hayfield on Mar 24, 2024 7:24:40 GMT
Plugging these numbers into Electoral calculus (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html) gives Con 36 Lab 524 LD 49 Ref 0 Grn 2 SNP 18 PC 3 Labour majority 398
Will not happen of course, but if it did it would make the Portillo moment seem like a tiny thing in comparison
I have a problem with Electoral Calculus and this is that problem. On a national swing from Green to Lab, a national swing from Plaid to Lab, how do the Greens gain Bristol Central and how does Plaid gain Caerfyrddin?
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,358
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YouGov
Mar 24, 2024 8:14:22 GMT
Post by YL on Mar 24, 2024 8:14:22 GMT
Plugging these numbers into Electoral calculus (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html) gives Con 36 Lab 524 LD 49 Ref 0 Grn 2 SNP 18 PC 3 Labour majority 398 Will not happen of course, but if it did it would make the Portillo moment seem like a tiny thing in comparison
I have a problem with Electoral Calculus and this is that problem. On a national swing from Green to Lab, a national swing from Plaid to Lab, how do the Greens gain Bristol Central and how does Plaid gain Caerfyrddin? I think the answer is that Electoral Calculus have incorporated some of the information from their MRP into their algorithm and that that contains patterns which give those predictions; in Caerfyrddin there was also a poll showing Plaid ahead, and it might be using that as well. It’s quite reasonable to think that those two constituencies won’t follow national swings, not that that means the details of their predictions are right.
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Mar 24, 2024 8:34:54 GMT
Plugging these numbers into Electoral calculus (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html) gives Con 36 Lab 524 LD 49 Ref 0 Grn 2 SNP 18 PC 3 Labour majority 398
Will not happen of course, but if it did it would make the Portillo moment seem like a tiny thing in comparison
FPTP has generally been something I have supported for this country, producing stable government (current administration excepted). Whether it produces good government is of course a rather different question. The concern with these figures are that a party with less than 50% of the vote has @80%of the seats. For Labour that will be an issue, with 400 backbenchers with too much time of their hands. For the Liberals, a difficult position as a party that does not support FPTP but this having led them to a position in terms of seats being HM opposition. The Tories will be in no fit state to do anything and likely will still have leadership elections among the 36! Having a party with 15% of the vote and no MPs poses a real question for our democracy. For Reform there will be outrage, some of it faux as this provides a real opportunity for them. They will be out on the streets, 30p Lee will be in his element. In this situation the country becomes more difficult to govern and there is a real danger of those who are unrepresented becoming more Trumpian and refusing to accept the democratic mandate. This will not be helped, in my view, by a centrist government refusing to make significant radical changes. The call to change to the voting system will be much more difficult to resist. If it is not, a refusal to accept a "failed" democracy becomes loud and hard to contain and with the strong probability Reform become a real force at the following election.
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Post by batman on Mar 24, 2024 8:39:45 GMT
a backbencher who does his or her job properly will not have too much time on his or her hands.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,369
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 24, 2024 8:41:53 GMT
Without getting into the niceties of the above argument on electoral reform, if I was trying to make an argument about anything, I'm not sure I would base it on the self-evident bollocks which is electoral calculus.
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YouGov
Mar 24, 2024 8:49:25 GMT
Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Mar 24, 2024 8:49:25 GMT
a backbencher who does his or her job properly will not have too much time on his or her hands. Indeed, but even if they do many will be MPs looking to climb the greasy pole and seeing the chances of that diminish given the numbers in front of them. This will be a real party management issue.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 24, 2024 8:52:43 GMT
I've supported voting systems which reflect votes won into seats represented from day one. It's how I ended up in the LDs to begin with. Bogeymen were put in my way - what about the BNP, what about UKIP, what about Reform. It's some kind of establishment/elite ghost story, warning about the big nasty PR voting system that would break up the cosy two party system and we wouldn't want that, would we?
Were Reform to "do an SDP-Liberal Alliance" and win next to nothing despite the massive vote share, this is not the era of polite discussion on "On The Record". Reform will not be cool, calm, or collected, nor will their voters.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,768
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2024 10:31:32 GMT
Then again, UKIP got nearly 13% of the vote in 2015 and just one MP. Not much changed as a result.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 24, 2024 10:50:53 GMT
To be honest, I am starting to think that electoral reform is inevitable. It won't happen yet, and I doubt it will happen this decade, but it does seem that we are witnessing the fracturing of the two party coalitions. The rise of Reform, the SNP, Greens, PC, various independents and residents' associations etc. may well be the beginning of that. I further think that if the rise of Reform is real, and if Labour fractures over the next two parliaments in the way we have, electoral reform will be almost unanswerable. There's a lot of ifs there I know, but the situation we look to be in is different to before. It is even different to the Liberals being replaced by Labour. If Reform's rise is real, I don't think it will be as comprehensive as that. If we start to have four, five, or six different parties consistently getting decent percentages in elections but no seats, or in the case of the SNP far too many for their vote share, FPTP just won't be adequate.
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YouGov
Mar 24, 2024 12:15:03 GMT
Post by johnloony on Mar 24, 2024 12:15:03 GMT
Then again, UKIP got nearly 13% of the vote in 2015 and just one MP. Not much changed as a result. ”Not much changed”? In the months running up to the 2015 election, UKIP went down in the polls from 17% to 13%. The UKIP vote being squeezed and absorbed by the Conservatives was palpable. What changed as a result of that process was that the Conservative Party won a majority, and was able to hold the EU referendum in 2016.
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Post by richardh on Mar 24, 2024 12:17:59 GMT
The odds (on BetFred) of the Lib-Dems winning more seats than the Conservatives at the next GE have shortened in the last few days from 10-1 to 8-1.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,768
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2024 12:18:37 GMT
I mean that not much changed in response to such an obviously unfair FPTP result.
The presumption upthread was that Reform getting a sizeable vote but few/no seats would lead to some sort of revolution (whether metaphorical or literal)
I will believe that scenario (all elements of it) when I see it.
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Post by johnloony on Mar 24, 2024 12:29:42 GMT
Plugging these numbers into Electoral calculus (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html) gives Con 36 Lab 524 LD 49 Ref 0 Grn 2 SNP 18 PC 3 Labour majority 398 Will not happen of course, but if it did it would make the Portillo moment seem like a tiny thing in comparison
I have a problem with Electoral Calculus and this is that problem. On a national swing from Green to Lab, a national swing from Plaid to Lab, how do the Greens gain Bristol Central and how does Plaid gain Caerfyrddin? They can’t and they don’t because the whole thing is rubbish
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,086
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YouGov
Mar 24, 2024 14:57:50 GMT
Post by maxque on Mar 24, 2024 14:57:50 GMT
a backbencher who does his or her job properly will not have too much time on his or her hands. And what do you consider the proper job of a bankbencher?
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Post by batman on Mar 24, 2024 16:40:03 GMT
someone who takes up their constituents' casework & fights hard for their constituents' legitimate interests, attends Parliament & on top of that also turns out to campaign for their party. That should keep any person busy enough.
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YouGov
Mar 24, 2024 16:54:15 GMT
via mobile
Post by mattbewilson on Mar 24, 2024 16:54:15 GMT
60-70hr week I've been reliably told
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Post by kevinf on Mar 24, 2024 17:22:00 GMT
Plugging these numbers into Electoral calculus (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html) gives Con 36 Lab 524 LD 49 Ref 0 Grn 2 SNP 18 PC 3 Labour majority 398
Will not happen of course, but if it did it would make the Portillo moment seem like a tiny thing in comparison
FPTP has generally been something I have supported for this country, producing stable government (current administration excepted). Whether it produces good government is of course a rather different question. The concern with these figures are that a party with less than 50% of the vote has @80%of the seats. For Labour that will be an issue, with 400 backbenchers with too much time of their hands. For the Liberals, a difficult position as a party that does not support FPTP but this having led them to a position in terms of seats being HM opposition. The Tories will be in no fit state to do anything and likely will still have leadership elections among the 36! Having a party with 15% of the vote and no MPs poses a real question for our democracy. For Reform there will be outrage, some of it faux as this provides a real opportunity for them. They will be out on the streets, 30p Lee will be in his element. In this situation the country becomes more difficult to govern and there is a real danger of those who are unrepresented becoming more Trumpian and refusing to accept the democratic mandate. This will not be helped, in my view, by a centrist government refusing to make significant radical changes. The call to change to the voting system will be much more difficult to resist. If it is not, a refusal to accept a "failed" democracy becomes loud and hard to contain and with the strong probability Reform become a real force at the following election. I can see you put a lot of thought into that, OFL, and if you were commenting after such a result, I’d agree with you, but I feel I need to put this in capitals, THE TORIES WILL NOT END UP WITH 36 SEATS!
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YouGov
Mar 24, 2024 20:17:39 GMT
Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Mar 24, 2024 20:17:39 GMT
FPTP has generally been something I have supported for this country, producing stable government (current administration excepted). Whether it produces good government is of course a rather different question. The concern with these figures are that a party with less than 50% of the vote has @80%of the seats. For Labour that will be an issue, with 400 backbenchers with too much time of their hands. For the Liberals, a difficult position as a party that does not support FPTP but this having led them to a position in terms of seats being HM opposition. The Tories will be in no fit state to do anything and likely will still have leadership elections among the 36! Having a party with 15% of the vote and no MPs poses a real question for our democracy. For Reform there will be outrage, some of it faux as this provides a real opportunity for them. They will be out on the streets, 30p Lee will be in his element. In this situation the country becomes more difficult to govern and there is a real danger of those who are unrepresented becoming more Trumpian and refusing to accept the democratic mandate. This will not be helped, in my view, by a centrist government refusing to make significant radical changes. The call to change to the voting system will be much more difficult to resist. If it is not, a refusal to accept a "failed" democracy becomes loud and hard to contain and with the strong probability Reform become a real force at the following election. I can see you put a lot of thought into that, OFL, and if you were commenting after such a result, I’d agree with you, but I feel I need to put this in capitals, THE TORIES WILL NOT END UP WITH 36 SEATS! Absolutely, but it's amusing to imagine the looks on their entitled faces as they go down one by one!
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