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YouGov
May 29, 2022 21:04:51 GMT
Post by greenhert on May 29, 2022 21:04:51 GMT
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YouGov
May 30, 2022 10:37:12 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on May 30, 2022 10:37:12 GMT
It does not even list Cheadle and Hazel Grove in the data table linked from the article... Which is I daresay the only place MEN looked..
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batman
Labour
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YouGov
May 30, 2022 18:10:41 GMT
Post by batman on May 30, 2022 18:10:41 GMT
Well. West Bolton needs a swing of exactly 9% for Labour to gain it. That's the equivalent on UNS of a Labour lead of 6.5%. On the basis of some polls (including Redfield & Wilton today, for example) the Tories would lose it to Labour, on the basis of others the Tories would hold it. In local government the Tories are still doing pretty well in that constituency, so it is a tough ask for Labour, but it's certainly on Labour's radar as things stand at the moment. Some polls also show the Tories capable of holding Hazel Grove, some even Cheadle; but others show the opposite. Of course we know UNS doesn't exist any more but for many polls that's all we have.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 1, 2022 10:48:55 GMT
An absolute barnburner this week!
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 1, 2022 12:20:10 GMT
An absolute barnburner this week! The water can't get much slacker.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 1, 2022 12:36:03 GMT
An absolute barnburner this week! The water can't get much slacker. Au contraire - SNP support down 20%. It's the Jubilee Effect!
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polupolu
Lib Dem
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Post by polupolu on Jun 5, 2022 11:08:14 GMT
Hmmm. I wonder which newspapers gave so many of the public this inaccurate impression?
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 5, 2022 12:04:26 GMT
Hmmm. I wonder which newspapers gave so many of the public this inaccurate impression?
It’s more complicated than that. You find the same sort of trend in all subjects in all countries. Remember that people aren’t very numerate. Perhaps half of them don’t understand percentages at all. Then you have to realize that responses to these questions reflect not a proportion at all, but how important people think the issue is. Then you have to remember the availability heuristic - people always think crime is going up because it’s easy to bring examples of crime to mind. Is this latter effect caused by the media? Well partly. But perhaps the public will think things are important even if the media can be persuaded to downplay them. There’s quite a lot published on this but the excellent Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahnemann covers it.
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Post by islington on Jun 5, 2022 12:14:06 GMT
Hmmm. I wonder which newspapers gave so many of the public this inaccurate impression?
It’s more complicated than that. You find the same sort of trend in all subjects in all countries. Remember that people aren’t very numerate. Perhaps half of them don’t understand percentages at all. Then you have to realize that responses to these questions reflect not a proportion at all, but how important people think the issue is. Then you have to remember the availability heuristic - people always think crime is going up because it’s easy to bring examples of crime to mind. Is this latter effect caused by the media? Well partly. But perhaps the public will think things are important even if the media can be persuaded to downplay them. There’s quite a lot published on this but the excellent Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahnemann covers it. The bit in bold is 100% correct.
This was driven home to me decades ago when I found myself discussing, with a middle-class, university-educated friend, the proposal of some political party (the Lib Dems? I can't remember at this distance in time) to fund investment in education (I think it was) with a penny on the income tax.
As my well-paid friend expressed his support for this proposal it slowly dawned on me what he thought he would have to pay - just one extra penny in tax.
"Hang on," I said. "It's not just an extra penny. It's an extra penny in each pound of your taxable income."
"No, that can't be right. (pause) Are you sure?"
"Yes."
"Ah ..."
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 5, 2022 12:19:28 GMT
It’s more complicated than that. You find the same sort of trend in all subjects in all countries. Remember that people aren’t very numerate. Perhaps half of them don’t understand percentages at all. Then you have to realize that responses to these questions reflect not a proportion at all, but how important people think the issue is. Then you have to remember the availability heuristic - people always think crime is going up because it’s easy to bring examples of crime to mind. Is this latter effect caused by the media? Well partly. But perhaps the public will think things are important even if the media can be persuaded to downplay them. There’s quite a lot published on this but the excellent Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahnemann covers it. The bit in bold is 100% correct. This was driven home to me decades ago when I found myself discussing, with a middle-class, university-educated friend, the proposal of some political party (the Lib Dems? I can't remember at this distance in time) to fund investment in education (I think it was) with a penny on the income tax. As my well-paid friend expressed his support for this proposal it slowly dawned on me what he thought he would have to pay - just one extra penny in tax. "Hang on," I said. "It's not just an extra penny. It's an extra penny in each pound of your taxable income." "No, that can't be right. (pause) Are you sure?" "Yes." "Ah ..."
A guy from one of the power companies once rang me and claimed that since they could get me a 7% saving on my electricity tariff and 12% on my gas tariff I would save 19% on my overall bill . . .
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polupolu
Lib Dem
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YouGov
Jun 5, 2022 14:27:46 GMT
Post by polupolu on Jun 5, 2022 14:27:46 GMT
It’s more complicated than that. You find the same sort of trend in all subjects in all countries. Remember that people aren’t very numerate. Perhaps half of them don’t understand percentages at all. Then you have to realize that responses to these questions reflect not a proportion at all, but how important people think the issue is. Then you have to remember the availability heuristic - people always think crime is going up because it’s easy to bring examples of crime to mind. Is this latter effect caused by the media? Well partly. But perhaps the public will think things are important even if the media can be persuaded to downplay them. There’s quite a lot published on this but the excellent Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahnemann covers it. The bit in bold is 100% correct.
This was driven home to me decades ago when I found myself discussing, with a middle-class, university-educated friend, the proposal of some political party (the Lib Dems? I can't remember at this distance in time) to fund investment in education (I think it was) with a penny on the income tax.
As my well-paid friend expressed his support for this proposal it slowly dawned on me what he thought he would have to pay - just one extra penny in tax.
"Hang on," I said. "It's not just an extra penny. It's an extra penny in each pound of your taxable income."
"No, that can't be right. (pause) Are you sure?"
"Yes."
"Ah ..."
Sadly true. A frighteningly large proportion of this country are functionally innumerate. That includes far too many people who have degrees. America is also bad (probably worse by some estimates. But this is NOT true of all countries. Japan, Finland, and the Dutch (for example) are considered to have significantly higher numeracy.
And, yes that was one of our policies.
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YouGov
Jun 5, 2022 15:12:19 GMT
Post by greenhert on Jun 5, 2022 15:12:19 GMT
The polling sample is likely a key issue in of itself-respondents to these polls are more likely to come from major cities which are indeed much more diverse than the towns and villages far from said major cities.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 5, 2022 16:45:36 GMT
Important to remember that most people don’t think regularly and deeply about these sorts of questions. If you ask people what share of the population a small group is, they are invariably going to overestimate it due to a lot of them just completely guessing or assuming it must be a large group if they’re being asked about it.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 5, 2022 16:48:01 GMT
Hmmm. I wonder which newspapers gave so many of the public this inaccurate impression?
It’s more complicated than that. You find the same sort of trend in all subjects in all countries. Remember that people aren’t very numerate. Perhaps half of them don’t understand percentages at all. Then you have to realize that responses to these questions reflect not a proportion at all, but how important people think the issue is. Then you have to remember the availability heuristic - people always think crime is going up because it’s easy to bring examples of crime to mind. Is this latter effect caused by the media? Well partly. But perhaps the public will think things are important even if the media can be persuaded to downplay them. There’s quite a lot published on this but the excellent Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahnemann covers it. It's not just the "usual suspects" in the media giving that impression, from watching any TV or listening to any radio, you'd think 50% of the population were trans, families all have one black parent and one white parent - or just a single mother. Heads will explode when the census stats are published and it doesn't match the media's insistence of what society is.
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 5, 2022 17:11:33 GMT
I thought the last time this came up we established that the over-estimation of immigrant numbers was almost exclusively concentrated in areas that had low ethnic minority populations? Areas with high ethnic minority concentrations were rather more accurate about the overall level of minorities.
It seems to me that people massively over-estimate anything that the media chooses to bang on about - other examples include overall crime rates, NHS spending on overseas visitors, the proportion of immigrants claiming benefits... if the media constantly tells their readers that the UK is over-run with immigrants/crime/medical tourists/benefit scroungers for political purposes then folk will generally believe it - after all, why wouldn't they? Most normal people aren't obsessed about politics and are too busy with their lives to check.
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J.G.Harston
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Jun 5, 2022 17:30:19 GMT
Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 5, 2022 17:30:19 GMT
I thought the last time this came up we established that the over-estimation of immigrant numbers was almost exclusively concentrated in areas that had low ethnic minority populations? That supports the media naval-gazing metropolitan obsession theory. You ask somebody in Boston Lincs how many black people there are, they'd bound to think: well, there's none around here, but they're plastered wall to wall on the tellybox, so my observations must be out, so I'll punt for 20%, after all, that's what I'm being told by the telly.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 5, 2022 17:31:53 GMT
I thought the last time this came up we established that the over-estimation of immigrant numbers was almost exclusively concentrated in areas that had low ethnic minority populations? Areas with high ethnic minority concentrations were rather more accurate about the overall level of minorities. It seems to me that people massively over-estimate anything that the media chooses to bang on about - other examples include overall crime rates, NHS spending on overseas visitors, the proportion of immigrants claiming benefits... if the media constantly tells their readers that the UK is over-run with immigrants/crime/medical tourists/benefit scroungers for political purposes then folk will generally believe it - after all, why wouldn't they? Most normal people aren't obsessed about politics and are too busy with their lives to check. Cultivation theory. It's like plane crashes: people are more likely to fear a plane crash than a car crash, despite being significantly more likely to die on the way to airport than on the flight (even adjusting for passenger kilometres). Something that happens daily isn't news, so people don't think about it as much.
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YouGov
Jun 5, 2022 17:53:29 GMT
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Post by aargauer on Jun 5, 2022 17:53:29 GMT
Normally I'm pretty good at guessing these %s. I would have been miles out on the transgender one. Would have guessed a solid order of magnitude lower. To my knowledge I've only met 2 transgender people in my life.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Jun 5, 2022 19:41:37 GMT
Normally I'm pretty good at guessing these %s. I would have been miles out on the transgender one. Would have guessed a solid order of magnitude lower. To my knowledge I've only met 2 transgender people in my life. I presume these figures are based on surveys of some sort, When the census info is released it will be interesting
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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YouGov
Jun 8, 2022 9:42:29 GMT
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Post by cogload on Jun 8, 2022 9:42:29 GMT
Bloody hell. Read the entire thread.
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