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YouGov
Sept 20, 2021 20:23:23 GMT
Post by observer on Sept 20, 2021 20:23:23 GMT
You need to see social media where the Remainers celebrate any apparent economic damage they can try to link to Brexit. See, for example, shortages of lorry drivers There is of course a difference between "celebrating" and "we told you this would happen, you made your bed now lie in it", but it seems to be one that brexiteers have difficulty picking up on They certainly seem to delight in it. They appear gleeful even when it is nothing to do with Brexit, suggesting they are indeed "celebrating" what they claim to be bad news
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 20, 2021 20:46:46 GMT
There is of course a difference between "celebrating" and "we told you this would happen, you made your bed now lie in it", but it seems to be one that brexiteers have difficulty picking up on They certainly seem to delight in it. They appear gleeful even when it is nothing to do with Brexit, suggesting they are indeed "celebrating" what they claim to be bad news Well, considering the relentless trashing of the EU by Brexiteers for over 5 decades, with every difficulty highlighted and every annoyance caused by the UK govt blamed on Brussels, you may as well get used to it, like most of us did, and stop whinging.. (edit to fix ambiguity)
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YouGov
Sept 23, 2021 15:52:38 GMT
Post by hullenedge on Sept 23, 2021 15:52:38 GMT
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 23, 2021 16:49:14 GMT
Which is interesting also because the Greens will rarely be a realistic challenger in any of these seats, and their votes will likely move toward either LDems or labour depending on who is the most realistic ABT candidate.
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YouGov
Sept 23, 2021 17:03:34 GMT
via mobile
peterl likes this
Post by andrew111 on Sept 23, 2021 17:03:34 GMT
Which is interesting also because the Greens will rarely be a realistic challenger in any of these seats, and their votes will likely move toward either LDems or labour depending on who is the most realistic ABT candidate. Yes, the important bit is Tory minus 7.
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 24, 2021 7:32:04 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 30, 2021 6:47:03 GMT
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Sept 30, 2021 11:03:23 GMT
Christ, the Tories are eight points ahead after the week we’ve just had, and I thought that Starmer’s forensic insight and electability would have surely won the electorate over by now.
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hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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YouGov
Sept 30, 2021 12:48:42 GMT
Post by hengo on Sept 30, 2021 12:48:42 GMT
Christ, the Tories are eight points ahead after the week we’ve just had, and I thought that Starmer’s forensic insight and electability would have surely won the electorate over by now. The gobby fishwife probably got more “ cut- through”.
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YouGov
Sept 30, 2021 13:26:28 GMT
Post by justin124 on Sept 30, 2021 13:26:28 GMT
Yougov is distorted by the very high Green vote being regularly recorded. The Tories are only at 39%.
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YouGov
Sept 30, 2021 13:41:31 GMT
Post by lackeroftalent on Sept 30, 2021 13:41:31 GMT
Yougov is distorted by the very high Green vote being regularly recorded. The Tories are only at 39%. I am curious as to what it is about yougov polls that generate these higher Green figures. I imagine that they aren't reallocating to 2019 voting at the same rate as other pollsters.
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 4, 2021 7:33:45 GMT
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-mays-red-wall-support-beats-boris-johnson-gvd70wt05Boris Johnson’s majority would be almost halved if an election were held today, new modelling suggests. In results that will cause significant discomfort among many of Johnson’s new MPs, the model suggested that the Conservatives would lose 18 red wall seats to Labour, with a further 14 seats that are too close to call. According to the poll, the Tories have 41 per cent backing in the red wall, with Labour on 40 per cent. For Johnson that figure is 7 points down on the 2019 general election, when he was backed by 48 per cent in the red wall, and even two points down on 2017, when May lost her majority. The results are modest progress for Sir Keir Starmer. The 40 per cent support for his party is up two points on 2019, but 10 points down on Jeremy Corbyn’s red wall backing in 2017. The model predicts that four Conservative seats will be won by Labour by crushing margins of 10 points or more: Redcar, North West Durham, Heywood & Middleton and Lincoln. A handful of seats have become more Conservative: Colne Valley, West Bromwich East, Don Valley, Bishop Auckland and Ashfield.
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,136
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Post by WJ on Oct 4, 2021 7:46:43 GMT
It's a sign of the times that it is news when Labour is predicted to get "crushing margins of 10 points or more" over the Tories in seats like NW Durham and Redcar.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2021 7:54:18 GMT
And i would have said that Lincoln and Colne Valley are more traditional marginals rather than "redwall" seats, if the term still has any meaning...
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 4, 2021 8:11:03 GMT
From the RedBox email:-
New YouGov polling for The Times suggests as much: Conservative support in the red wall is not only down nearly ten points on 2019, but as many as 32 seats in the north of England, midlands and north Wales could fall to Labour if an election were held tomorrow.
Huge swings would deliver four seats safely back into Labour hands, with leads over 10 per cent – including such totemic 2019 losses as North West Durham – while another 14 are likely to fall, including Stoke-on-Trent Central, Bolton North East and Wrexham.
Another 14, meanwhile, are too close to call – including Darlington, Blyth Valley and Leigh.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 4, 2021 8:30:53 GMT
From the RedBox email:- New YouGov polling for The Times suggests as much: Conservative support in the red wall is not only down nearly ten points on 2019, but as many as 32 seats in the north of England, midlands and north Wales could fall to Labour if an election were held tomorrow. Huge swings would deliver four seats safely back into Labour hands, with leads over 10 per cent – including such totemic 2019 losses as North West Durham – while another 14 are likely to fall, including Stoke-on-Trent Central, Bolton North East and Wrexham. Another 14, meanwhile, are too close to call – including Darlington, Blyth Valley and Leigh. These seem to me to be obvious and normal and to have been true for many months. 2019 was our version of Labour's 1997, but less dramatic and penetrating. The fall-back was posted up as a near obvious move, slowly with Blair but quicker now in a more volatile political environment. Of course there will be a series of 're-captures' whenever the GE is held and really however good the climate for the Conservatives. But I don't see this being big enough to permit a Labour victory. The real interest here is the nature and size of the swing back to Labour, and the regional variation of such swing. I see some of those 2019 captures consolidating and even having better majorities. I also see a small number of possible Conservative gains at the next GE. Then there is the effect of the new constituencies and that minor fog is difficult to penetrate at present but must be likely to see a net structural gain of about 10 to the Conservatives? A further factor will be the effects of anti-Conservative pacts, rise/fall of LD and Green parties and the outside possibility of a serious incursion by a new party on the right? Also the long-shot possibility of either Labour or the Conservatives (perhaps both) seeing a split or major outrage of dissent leading to departures and defections.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2021 9:26:16 GMT
And i would have said that Lincoln and Colne Valley are more traditional marginals rather than "redwall" seats, if the term still has any meaning... NEWSFLASH: it doesn't.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 4, 2021 9:33:17 GMT
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-mays-red-wall-support-beats-boris-johnson-gvd70wt05Boris Johnson’s majority would be almost halved if an election were held today, new modelling suggests. In results that will cause significant discomfort among many of Johnson’s new MPs, the model suggested that the Conservatives would lose 18 red wall seats to Labour, with a further 14 seats that are too close to call. According to the poll, the Tories have 41 per cent backing in the red wall, with Labour on 40 per cent. For Johnson that figure is 7 points down on the 2019 general election, when he was backed by 48 per cent in the red wall, and even two points down on 2017, when May lost her majority. The results are modest progress for Sir Keir Starmer. The 40 per cent support for his party is up two points on 2019, but 10 points down on Jeremy Corbyn’s red wall backing in 2017. The model predicts that four Conservative seats will be won by Labour by crushing margins of 10 points or more: Redcar, North West Durham, Heywood & Middleton and Lincoln. A handful of seats have become more Conservative: Colne Valley, West Bromwich East, Don Valley, Bishop Auckland and Ashfield. West Bromwich East being better for the Tories is ominous news for Labour if it's reflected in the other West Midlands marginals.
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YouGov
Oct 4, 2021 9:35:05 GMT
Post by andrewp on Oct 4, 2021 9:35:05 GMT
You can make out the individual constituencies on this map. I’ve always thought Anglesey was typical ‘red wall’
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 4, 2021 9:59:45 GMT
You can make out the individual constituencies on this map. I’ve always thought Anglesey was typical ‘red wall’ Ynys Môn was Conservative/Plaid throughout the Thatcher years, and took until 2001 for Labour to win back, so not the long uninterrupted streak of the Durham’s etc.
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