European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
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YouGov
Sept 11, 2021 10:35:10 GMT
Post by European Lefty on Sept 11, 2021 10:35:10 GMT
Said person should never have been allowed to stand for the party at the 2019 GE in the first place. That the Tories behave in an amoral fashion is not a reason for Labour to. I agree - but it is not the job of the party leader to resolve the issue in a manner of maximum benefit to political opponents. Removal of the Labour Whip would have been enough. The by election timing could not have been worse - the Johnson vaccine bounce combined with the Ben Houchen factor running very strongly at the May local elections was an ideal setting for Tory success. Starmer clearly lacked the political 'nous' to deny them that. Were the by election writ being moved now, Labour's chnnces of success would be significantly higher.But at the time nobody could have known that that would be the case. To say nothing of the fact that we may very well still have lost it and the consequences of losing it now would have been far higher
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YouGov
Sept 11, 2021 10:41:43 GMT
Post by justin124 on Sept 11, 2021 10:41:43 GMT
I agree - but it is not the job of the party leader to resolve the issue in a manner of maximum benefit to political opponents. Removal of the Labour Whip would have been enough. The by election timing could not have been worse - the Johnson vaccine bounce combined with the Ben Houchen factor running very strongly at the May local elections was an ideal setting for Tory success. Starmer clearly lacked the political 'nous' to deny them that. Were the by election writ being moved now, Labour's chnnces of success would be significantly higher.But at the time nobody could have known that that would be the case. To say nothing of the fact that we may very well still have lost it and the consequences of losing it now would have been far higher It was pretty easy to forsee that the vaccine bounce would subside - and that the Ben Houchen factor would be less significant at a later date which did not coincide with his own re-election bid.
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 17, 2021 7:40:44 GMT
From today's RedBox:-
Con 39 Lab 35 LD 7 Green 7 SNP 5 REFUK 3 Others 2 Plaid 1
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,893
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YouGov
Sept 17, 2021 10:04:35 GMT
Post by jamie on Sept 17, 2021 10:04:35 GMT
Business as usual resumes.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 17, 2021 10:06:04 GMT
Though this is now a run of polls putting the Tories under 40%.
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Post by justin124 on Sept 17, 2021 12:49:54 GMT
Though this is now a run of polls putting the Tories under 40%. Also 35% with Yougov is ok for Labour in the context of the Green vote recorded which in a GE could well add 3% to Labour's vote share. Overall the polls appear to suggest we are now back to Hung Parliament territory with the Tories just short of a majority.
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hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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Post by hengo on Sept 17, 2021 15:39:58 GMT
I’m quite happy to see some grief in the polls for the conservatives as I've not been happy with the recent performance, and a feeling that victory is assured is never healthy. However, I can’t help feeling that the position remains very strong. To be level or ahead at all at this stage of a Parliament , and after a lengthy period in power is fairly extraordinary in itself. And my expectation is that the economic position is likely to strengthen over the next two years. Despite the NI increase, incomes are currently rising and are likely to continue to do so for a while yet. The disruptions from Covid should gradually fade. People should be feeling better off and more optimistic. The opposition remains ineffective. Of course unforeseen events can always upset the most complacent of expectations! I am a betting man- but I’ll stick to the horses.
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Post by justin124 on Sept 17, 2021 15:54:55 GMT
I’m quite happy to see some grief in the polls for the conservatives as I've not been happy with the recent performance, and a feeling that victory is assured is never healthy. However, I can’t help feeling that the position remains very strong. To be level or ahead at all at this stage of a Parliament , and after a lengthy period in power is fairly extraordinary in itself. And my expectation is that the economic position is likely to strengthen over the next two years. Despite the NI increase, incomes are currently rising and are likely to continue to do so for a while yet. The disruptions from Covid should gradually fade. People should be feeling better off and more optimistic. The opposition remains ineffective. Of course unforeseen events can always upset the most complacent of expectations! I am a betting man- but I’ll stick to the horses. At the same stage of the 1959 Parliament - Summer 1961 - there had not been a single Labour lead , yet the party went on to win the 1964 election. In the 1987 Parliament , the Tories were still well ahead at the beginning of 1989 with no Labour lead appearing until May that year. By early 1990 the Tories were in serious trouble which they eventually resolved by ditching Thatcher. Whilst they did go on to win the 1992 election, the party did lose 40 seats with its majority falling to 21 compared with 102 in 1987. many commentators do not take such an optimistic view of economic prospects - with economic growth merely compensating for the Covid GDP dip and RPI inflation has already reached 4.8%.
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YouGov
Sept 17, 2021 16:22:42 GMT
Post by bigfatron on Sept 17, 2021 16:22:42 GMT
Stock markets are historically heavily over-valued (due to the money from QE sloshing around looking for an investment home presumably) - by all historic measures we are due for both a stock market crash and a housing market slump.
Like Justin, I am not so sanguine about medium term economic prospects...
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hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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YouGov
Sept 17, 2021 17:23:55 GMT
Post by hengo on Sept 17, 2021 17:23:55 GMT
You may of course be right. It’s only my opinion. What a miserable position to be in however to be yearning so desperately ( and obviously) for bad news for the country and its prosperity!
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YouGov
Sept 17, 2021 18:10:41 GMT
Post by finsobruce on Sept 17, 2021 18:10:41 GMT
You may of course be right. It’s only my opinion. What a miserable position to be in however to be yearning so desperately ( and obviously) for bad news for the country and its prosperity! I seem to remember that on this place some supporters of a hard Brexit positively welcoming the possibility of a couple of years of economic trauma.
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YouGov
Sept 17, 2021 18:31:37 GMT
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Sept 17, 2021 18:31:37 GMT
Stock markets are historically heavily over-valued (due to the money from QE sloshing around looking for an investment home presumably) - by all historic measures we are due for both a stock market crash and a housing market slump. Like Justin, I am not so sanguine about medium term economic prospects...
We've been told the housing market is overvalued for the last 30 years, but prices keep going up, with very minor adjustments. The stock market had its crash, covid, its now recovering ground, with the economy re-opening. Historic measures are a guide, but ultimately they are only a guide.
People have also underestimated economic performance for decades, I believe the economy will cope well medium term, as long as we don't lockdown again and again that is what will kill the economy.
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hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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YouGov
Sept 17, 2021 19:03:14 GMT
Post by hengo on Sept 17, 2021 19:03:14 GMT
You may of course be right. It’s only my opinion. What a miserable position to be in however to be yearning so desperately ( and obviously) for bad news for the country and its prosperity! I seem to remember that on this place some supporters of a hard Brexit positively welcoming the possibility of a couple of years of economic trauma. Really? I don’t recall that or understand why they would? I wasn’t myself a supporter of what is usually meant by “ hard Brexit” , though certainly happy to be out of a Union which I considered , and still consider, to be against the interests of the country. I did think that the eventual outcome would probably lead to maybe a couple of years where we might see a slight reduction in growth before the benefits were felt. Covid has rather obscured things but it would seem I was a trifle pessimistic.
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YouGov
Sept 17, 2021 19:06:25 GMT
Post by finsobruce on Sept 17, 2021 19:06:25 GMT
I seem to remember that on this place some supporters of a hard Brexit positively welcoming the possibility of a couple of years of economic trauma. Really? I don’t recall that or understand why they would? I wasn’t myself a supporter of what is usually meant by “ hard Brexit” , though certainly happy to be out of a Union which I considered , and still consider, to be against the interests of the country. I did think that the eventual outcome would probably lead to maybe a couple of years where we might see a slight reduction in growth before the benefits were felt. Covid has rather obscured things but it would seem I was a trifle pessimistic. Yes, really.
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hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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YouGov
Sept 17, 2021 19:20:13 GMT
Post by hengo on Sept 17, 2021 19:20:13 GMT
So, you doubtless can remember who? Genuinely, it would surprise me. I think I’ve commented before on threads trying to define “ conservatism “ that I see it as being essentially pragmatic as opposed to theoretical or dogmatic: its one consistent feature being what, rightly or wrongly, its advocates consider would best promote the prosperity and security of the country. Therefore while those inspired by theories of society may well believe that periods of “ economic trauma” were worthwhile in order to progress towards some greater goal, conservatives rarely would.
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YouGov
Sept 18, 2021 9:00:43 GMT
Post by matureleft on Sept 18, 2021 9:00:43 GMT
So, you doubtless can remember who? Genuinely, it would surprise me. I think I’ve commented before on threads trying to define “ conservatism “ that I see it as being essentially pragmatic as opposed to theoretical or dogmatic: its one consistent feature being what, rightly or wrongly, its advocates consider would best promote the prosperity and security of the country. Therefore while those inspired by theories of society may well believe that periods of “ economic trauma” were worthwhile in order to progress towards some greater goal, conservatives rarely would. There’s a distinction between someone welcoming economic trauma and someone seeing it as a price worth paying. Here’s a few pieces found on a quick search. www.politico.eu/article/uk-voters-believe-economic-damage-is-price-worth-paying-to-get-their-way-on-brexit/www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-47129762www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/six-in-10-brexit-voters-say-economic-damage-is-price-worth-paying-for-quitting-eu-a3601476.htmlAs you know I took a view centred almost entirely on the economy. Most Brexit enthusiasts felt that more nebulous concepts had greater weight in their decisions and are quite open about that. Brexit was never an economic project and most who have give it thought recognise that we’ll see inferior performance (to that which would have occurred within the EU) for much of the rest of this decade. What happens beyond then is even more for the birds than most economic forecasts!
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hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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YouGov
Sept 18, 2021 9:20:04 GMT
Post by hengo on Sept 18, 2021 9:20:04 GMT
None of your references are to any posters here which was what was claimed. How the media ran stories - virtually always with some slant in mind - is a quite different matter. We differ on the “nebulous” nature of the EUs political ambitions- yours is an unusual position even among Brussels enthusiasts. I think your claim about those “ who have given it thought” probably just means those you agree with or whose prognostications you hope will prove you right. Not that proof I’m afraid will ever be easily available to either of us! Anyway, I remain to be enlightened on whether anyone here on the Conservative side ever “ welcomed the possibility of...economic trauma”.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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YouGov
Sept 18, 2021 9:33:59 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Sept 18, 2021 9:33:59 GMT
Tbh if finso says it happened I am inclined to trust him.
Can't recall precise details of posts or posters but the "vibe" that some short term pain might ultimately be "worth it" was quite widespread around referendum time.
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YouGov
Sept 18, 2021 9:43:57 GMT
Post by matureleft on Sept 18, 2021 9:43:57 GMT
None of your references are to any posters here which was what was claimed. How the media ran stories - virtually always with some slant in mind - is a quite different matter. We differ on the “nebulous” nature of the EUs political ambitions- yours is an unusual position even among Brussels enthusiasts. I think your claim about those “ who have given it thought” probably just means those you agree with or whose prognostications you hope will prove you right. Not that proof I’m afraid will ever be easily available to either of us! Anyway, I remain to be enlightened on whether anyone here on the Conservative side ever “ welcomed the possibility of...economic trauma”. These are some of those “who have given it thought”. I’ve actually taken a more cautious view, in line with the overwhelming consensus for the medium term but hesitant about the longer term. www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/economists-views-brexitAs you say, proof will be hard to come by but logic suggests that disruption to EU trade will precede and outweigh, at least initially, any gains elsewhere. Businesses take time to adjust and, particularly, to understand and win new markets. I hadn’t understood the remark about Brexit supporters to be confined to those on this site. But I can certainly think of one who firmly endorsed the “it’s not about the economy” position.
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hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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Post by hengo on Sept 18, 2021 11:16:52 GMT
Observer. But fair enough- most economists probably did think that. Not as reliable as tipsters on the horses , but there we are. Finso’s comment which I was responding to was unequivocal. And I’m not saying he was wrong. Just that I’d be surprised if Conservatives here were actually wishing harm to the country- being prepared to go through some mild turbulence to achieve a desired goal being a different matter altogether. The appearance of yearning for and gloating over any setbacks or humiliations for the country which one occasionally sees is I think pretty much always from those with other political allegiances.
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