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Post by bjornhattan on May 30, 2020 8:59:08 GMT
Starmer doing better with remainers than Corbyn ever did but just as bad with leavers So we can expect perhaps a few gains - Reading East, Wycombe, Kensington - but generally an increase of the Labour vote in upmarket Remain voting Tory safe seats, which won't change anything much It might not be quite as simple as that, because most seats are actually fairly evenly split between Leave and Remain. Take Blyth Valley for example - the Remain vote there was 39% so if Labour are doing 12% better with Remainers, you would expect their vote to increase by about 5% (12% of 39%). That would probably be enough to gain the seat.
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Merseymike
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May 30, 2020 9:03:20 GMT
Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 9:03:20 GMT
So we can expect perhaps a few gains - Reading East, Wycombe, Kensington - but generally an increase of the Labour vote in upmarket Remain voting Tory safe seats, which won't change anything much It might not be quite as simple as that, because most seats are actually fairly evenly split between Leave and Remain. Take Blyth Valley for example - the Remain vote there was 39% so if Labour are doing 12% better with Remainers, you would expect their vote to increase by about 5% (12% of 39%). That would probably be enough to gain the seat. This is where it might get interesting. The result though may suggest that the remainers in a strong leave seat like that may well have stayed with Labour anyway. Also it's a highly polarised seat, Cramlington North voters will vote Tory irrespective. The switchers kast time were mostly Labour leavers.
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May 30, 2020 9:05:43 GMT
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Post by akmd on May 30, 2020 9:05:43 GMT
So we can expect perhaps a few gains - Reading East, Wycombe, Kensington - but generally an increase of the Labour vote in upmarket Remain voting Tory safe seats, which won't change anything much Labour already hold Reading East. I think Chipping Barnet and Chingford and Woodford Green are also likely gains on current polling especially if IDS stands down in the latter.
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Merseymike
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May 30, 2020 9:08:16 GMT
Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 9:08:16 GMT
If that is so, then that's still going to mean a solid Tory majority. More evidence of Labour picking up the voters they don't really need. It would be interesting to see how this relates to place. Two observations: 1. The shift of Remainers back to Labour is beneficial not just as gross numbers. The elimination of a fundamental policy disagreement between Labour and Lib Dem makes it much easier for the two parties to operate informal co-operation short of pact and for tactical voting by either side 2. Labour's target Leave voters are a specific sub-set, primarily in the north and midlands. There is every reason to think the Tory allegiance of those voters is soft and conditional on the govt delivering improvements to the regions, which (economically at least) looks very challenging (always was IMO, if it was easy it'd have been done decades back). What Labour needs to do - and it'll have to be Lab not LD or anyone else - is to make its own offer I would entirely agree that their Tory allegiance is weak. Their previous Labour one had weakened considerably over the years, too. I can't really see someone like Starmer going for protectionism after the forthcoming no deal Brexit, though. He us very much a pragmatist but that approach is fundamentally opposed to his politics
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Merseymike
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May 30, 2020 9:08:55 GMT
Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 9:08:55 GMT
So we can expect perhaps a few gains - Reading East, Wycombe, Kensington - but generally an increase of the Labour vote in upmarket Remain voting Tory safe seats, which won't change anything much Labour already hold Reading East. I think Chipping Barnet and Chingford and Woodford Green are also likely gains on current polling especially if IDS stands down in the latter. Sorry....meant West. Will alter
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May 30, 2020 9:08:56 GMT
Post by yellowperil on May 30, 2020 9:08:56 GMT
So we can expect perhaps a few gains - Reading East, Wycombe, Kensington - but generally an increase of the Labour vote in upmarket Remain voting Tory safe seats, which won't change anything much Labour already hold Reading East. I think Chipping Barnet and Chingford and Woodford Green are also likely gains on current polling especially if IDS stands down in the latter. or even more if he doesn't?
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 30, 2020 9:10:00 GMT
Further to above - on Labour's offer:
The discussion on Blair elsewhere raised the issue of "aspirational voters". There was a mistaken (IMO) assumption that these correlate with ABC1s (or some other social category) but I think aspiration is universal. I'd argue that aspiration was: - 1945: freedom from fear that illness or an economic slump will make you destitute - 1979: to own a home, a bigger car, consumer goods and lifestyle your parents couldn't dream of. Thatcher got the 1979 shift, Labour didn't, and she ate into Labour voters especially in the non-unionised sector. Blair got it too and spotted before the Tories that people still wanted decent public services and social capital.
Post 2008 it has all shifted again, aspiring to a better lifestyle than your parents is gone. Post 2010 public services and public space has declined too. The future belongs to whoever can address that.
The Cons have made their big pitch on Brexit - turn back the clock to better times - and since the GE on Keynesian cash for the north. Maybe hints at protectionism post-Brexit, it's all a bit unclear as simultaneously they are talking about big new free trade deals. (My guess is the latter are problematic anyway and there is more mileage in post-COVID reduced dependence on imports which combines well with a Keynesian dirigisme.) They've made absolutely no pitch to the under 40s on housing (yet) or on their other concerns e.g. climate.
There's a lot of room for fundamental change IMO
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Post by johng on May 30, 2020 9:10:16 GMT
By the time of the next election, it will have been nine years since the Brexit vote. I know some people think the Brexit vote has changed everything in British politics, but has it really?
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Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 9:17:57 GMT
It really is very early days, with no election in prospect for several years. The "low hanging fruit" of a shift from Corbyn-branded Labour to one without that brand (Starmer remains too unknown to have developed anything more than the removal of a negative) is the return of those who see themselves as liberal progressives and who were shocked by some of the more unpleasant stuff under Corbyn. It's really far too early for those who moved to the Tories over Brexit to express buyers' regret - the purchase hasn't really arrived (!)and for many it would have been a big step on which they must try to feel some personal justification. They aren't normal swing voters. The problem for the Tories in those areas will be to keep the promise on rebalancing the economy at a point when the fiscal cupboard is more than bare, it's been demolished! And some of the things those voters care about beyond Brexit may not fit the Tory agenda - tackling zero hours for example. The liberal progressives are very much centred in either areas Labour already hold or have no chance in at all, though. Few in Stevenage, or West Bromwich for that matter. My Blairite partner didn't vote last time, and I thought he'd be very keen on Starmer, but he's not at all convinced so far. The second point I entirely agree with. But given Labour's support for the lockdown there remains room for a populist who has kept schtum on it so far to step in with a strongly protectionist message after the no deal Brexit. That's something else I think Starmer will find difficult because it goes against hus liberal progressive instincts.
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May 30, 2020 9:30:59 GMT
Post by manchesterman on May 30, 2020 9:30:59 GMT
I think some of the points raised here about this poll, reflect part of my comments I made over the last few days (about what terrible polling this was for opposition parties) that I got roundly chastised for.
Point being that, despite everything thats happened since the GE - Covid, lies. cover-ups etc - the net result if there were a GE tomorrow - would be a small dent in the Tory's "spanking" majority. I had fully expected the post-Cummingsgate polls to show something like Lab 40, Con 35 and the other parties showing an uptick too, so I was naturally shocked to see polling that would still result in a Tory govt with a clear majority despite everything thats happened!
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 9:31:01 GMT
The Cons have made their big pitch on Brexit - turn back the clock to better times - and since the GE on Keynesian cash for the north. Maybe hints at protectionism post-Brexit, it's all a bit unclear as simultaneously they are talking about big new free trade deals. There's a lot of room for fundamental change IMO This is all very interesting because Brexiteers have always been a combination of protectionists and globalisers. I think the links between Blair and Tory neoliberalism was nothing to do with publuc spending or big government. That's where they disagreed. It was the shared enthusiasm for globalisation. Right wing Brexiteers regarded the EU as a bureaucratic barrier to it, Left-Liberal remainers as a positive part of its operation. Left Leavers (not the ones who had a Labour label but Ukip politics like Hoey or Stuart) were primarily critical of the EU because of their support for protectionism and opposition to globalisation. There are a small number of right wing Brexiteers who share that view. But it hasn't been dominant in either party. Corbyn got it, but his party didn't (and many Corbyn to Starmer switchers have effectively FBPE views and are also fanatical lockdowns too). The old Tory protectionist tradition is hardly visible. There was some interesting Green thinking on the issue but they are divided between their suspicion of economic globalisation but their liking for cultural and social globalisation - similar to some of those on the Labour left
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May 30, 2020 9:35:12 GMT
Post by manchesterman on May 30, 2020 9:35:12 GMT
By the time of the next election, it will have been nine years since the Brexit vote. I know some people think the Brexit vote has changed everything in British politics, but has it really? Agree with this. the "act" of Brexit was never going to be an issue in 2024 [people dont like to admit they were wrong even when deep down they know they were].
I'd always expected that the toxic effects of brexit would hit the Tories hard in 2024; however they can now [with some semblance of an argument] spin it that "Oh we would have been just fine but for that pesky virus ruining our vision of the sunny uplands!"
The issue will come down to whether the electorate will blame the govt for the consequences of Covid - as electorates have always done in previous similar circumstances - or whether they really are totally Teflon and nothing will shift them from power.
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Merseymike
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May 30, 2020 9:46:14 GMT
Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 9:46:14 GMT
By the time of the next election, it will have been nine years since the Brexit vote. I know some people think the Brexit vote has changed everything in British politics, but has it really? Agree with this. the "act" of Brexit was never going to be an issue in 2024 [people dont like to admit they were wrong even when deep down they know they were]. I'd always expected that the toxic effects of brexit would hit the Tories hard in 2024; however they can now [with some semblance of an argument] spin it that "Oh we would have been just fine but for that pesky virus ruining our vision of the sunny uplands!" The issue will come down to whether the electorate will blame the govt for the consequences of Covid - as electorates have always done in previous similar circumstances - or whether they really are totally Teflon and nothing will shift them from power.
Given that Brexit has happened the issue is now to pursue creative policies to ensure the effect is not "toxic". I appreciate for some centrists their entire outlook is bound up with Europeanism and they cannot perceive anything outside the EU as being at all positive. But that isn't sensible.
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Post by liverpoolliberal on May 30, 2020 9:48:19 GMT
I think some of the points raised here about this poll, reflect part of my comments I made over the last few days (about what terrible polling this was for opposition parties) that I got roundly chastised for. Point being that, despite everything thats happened since the GE - Covid, lies. cover-ups etc - the net result if there were a GE tomorrow - would be a small dent in the Tory's "spanking" majority. I had fully expected the post-Cummingsgate polls to show something like Lab 40, Con 35 and the other parties showing an uptick too, so I was naturally shocked to see polling that would still result in a Tory govt with a clear majority despite everything thats happened! I just has a look at the polls directly after the UK fell out of the ERM in September 92, often cited as the straw that broke the camel’s back of Major’s government, and the polls immediately after have a small shift, the Tories went from low 40s to high 30s. But the slide kept on going, and by November they were at low 30s from which they never recovered, so we still have to wait and see if this Cummings affair has had a similar effect.
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 30, 2020 9:49:37 GMT
By the time of the next election, it will have been nine years since the Brexit vote. I know some people think the Brexit vote has changed everything in British politics, but has it really? The economic effects of Brexit will be just background noise compared to those of COVID. It is feasible that Brexit is a "success" in the government's own terms but the government gets thrown out in 2024 due its mishandling of the COVID crisis.
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May 30, 2020 9:53:31 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 9:53:31 GMT
Starmers total personal ratings leave few unaware of who he is. Most recent poll only leaves about 28% of people who don't know he is
As for ABC1 and aspirational voters. Brown famously said we're all middle class now. Thatcher also called anyone who was on public transport at 25 a failure in life. After 1979 the aspirational voter is the voter who got on his bike worked their way up the social economic ladder
As for Brexit. It seems me people get increasingly more brexity as if they are doubling down on it
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Merseymike
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May 30, 2020 10:03:25 GMT
Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 10:03:25 GMT
By the time of the next election, it will have been nine years since the Brexit vote. I know some people think the Brexit vote has changed everything in British politics, but has it really? The economic effects of Brexit will be just background noise compared to those of COVID. It is feasible that Brexit is a "success" in the government's own terms but the government gets thrown out in 2024 due its mishandling of the COVID crisis. Depends entirely on what they do in the upcoming months. But don't assume the existing opposition parties will necessarily benefit if they cock up.
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May 30, 2020 10:39:17 GMT
Post by The Bishop on May 30, 2020 10:39:17 GMT
I think some of the points raised here about this poll, reflect part of my comments I made over the last few days (about what terrible polling this was for opposition parties) that I got roundly chastised for. Point being that, despite everything thats happened since the GE - Covid, lies. cover-ups etc - the net result if there were a GE tomorrow - would be a small dent in the Tory's "spanking" majority. I had fully expected the post-Cummingsgate polls to show something like Lab 40, Con 35 and the other parties showing an uptick too, so I was naturally shocked to see polling that would still result in a Tory govt with a clear majority despite everything thats happened! I just has a look at the polls directly after the UK fell out of the ERM in September 92, often cited as the straw that broke the camel’s back of Major’s government, and the polls immediately after have a small shift, the Tories went from low 40s to high 30s. But the slide kept on going, and by November they were at low 30s from which they never recovered, so we still have to wait and see if this Cummings affair has had a similar effect. Labour's collapse in Scotland post-2014 referendum didn't all happen right away either.
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Post by jamie on May 30, 2020 10:51:48 GMT
So we can expect perhaps a few gains - Reading East, Wycombe, Kensington - but generally an increase of the Labour vote in upmarket Remain voting Tory safe seats, which won't change anything much It might not be quite as simple as that, because most seats are actually fairly evenly split between Leave and Remain. Take Blyth Valley for example - the Remain vote there was 39% so if Labour are doing 12% better with Remainers, you would expect their vote to increase by about 5% (12% of 39%). That would probably be enough to gain the seat. Very much agree with this. Perhaps a better version of MerseyMike’s argument is that the remain vote is disproportionately concentrated in a minority of seats, most of which Labour already hold with big majorities (or cannot realistically gain). This means that gaining remainers will definitely help Labour, but it would be more efficient to gain leavers (so if there was an equal trade off, the latter would be better to win over).
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May 30, 2020 10:56:07 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 10:56:07 GMT
It might not be quite as simple as that, because most seats are actually fairly evenly split between Leave and Remain. Take Blyth Valley for example - the Remain vote there was 39% so if Labour are doing 12% better with Remainers, you would expect their vote to increase by about 5% (12% of 39%). That would probably be enough to gain the seat. Very much agree with this. Perhaps a better version of MerseyMike’s argument is that the remain vote is disproportionately concentrated in a minority of seats, most of which Labour already hold with big majorities (or cannot realistically gain). This means that gaining remainers will definitely help Labour, but it would be more efficient to gain leavers (so if there was an equal trade off, the latter would be better to win over). That's exactly what I mean! There just aren't enough close run seats where Labour can win by gaining more remainers.
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