Deleted
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May 26, 2020 23:44:57 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 23:44:57 GMT
Some of the fieldwork would have been before the statement but probably about 65% afterwards. There's a limit to how large a swing can take place in just one day. I think the trend is clear. Of course it's possible that this is a one-off poll. The reason why I feel that that's unlikely is that once voters decide they don't trust a politician, it's extremely difficult to regain such trust. And the conditions don't exist to draw a line under this at present. He will have to sack Cummings to improve his party's position. There will be crossover at some point. I had thought it was unlikely to be before the latter part of the year but I think it's going to be sooner now given it was 25th 26th it must largely during and after
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Deleted
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May 26, 2020 23:52:03 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 23:52:03 GMT
There's no point speculating about the future too much. It is just one poll. But usually you do see better than this during a backlash. After we didn't leave the EU on April 12th I think we saw a huge drop in tory fortune. ComRes had a 10 point drop iicrc. I think Labour briefly had the lead after IDS resigned over the PIP and tax credit debacle which was about the same time of year as now but Starmer hasn't had the same amount of time and the difference is larger to surmount.
The worry is Labour are recovering but the Tories are still in a healthy position and the only comfort is 'they've got further to fall' which is speculation at best
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Deleted
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May 26, 2020 23:56:57 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 23:56:57 GMT
What's pretty interesting is actually both parties are retaining about the same number of voters as 2019. 91% and 90% respectively. Both parties have lost a similar amount to each other too 3% and 5% respectively. It's fair to say that few voters of either of the two have actually changed their mind
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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YouGov
May 27, 2020 11:07:26 GMT
Post by The Bishop on May 27, 2020 11:07:26 GMT
There's no point speculating about the future too much. It is just one poll. But usually you do see better than this during a backlash Its apparently the biggest Tory to Labour move in a single YouGov poll for over 10 years (more than anything in the 2017 campaign even)
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Deleted
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May 27, 2020 11:27:52 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2020 11:27:52 GMT
There's no point speculating about the future too much. It is just one poll. But usually you do see better than this during a backlash Its apparently the biggest Tory to Labour move in a single YouGov poll for over 10 years (more than anything in the 2017 campaign even) that's definitely not true. Take the 5-6 July 2017 poll swing of 7% compared to this one 4.5%
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Deleted
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May 27, 2020 12:26:13 GMT
Post by Deleted on May 27, 2020 12:26:13 GMT
What's pretty interesting is actually both parties are retaining about the same number of voters as 2019. 91% and 90% respectively. Both parties have lost a similar amount to each other too 3% and 5% respectively. It's fair to say that few voters of either of the two have actually changed their mind Lib Dems delaying their leadership race until 2021 might have something to do with that.
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timmullen1
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Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on May 27, 2020 13:11:51 GMT
What's pretty interesting is actually both parties are retaining about the same number of voters as 2019. 91% and 90% respectively. Both parties have lost a similar amount to each other too 3% and 5% respectively. It's fair to say that few voters of either of the two have actually changed their mind Lib Dems delaying their leadership race until 2021 might have something to do with that. Aren’t they doing it online this autumn now or did I dream that (entirely possible as I’ve got one weekend which is a complete blur as my mind was elsewhere)?
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Post by tonygreaves on May 27, 2020 13:45:56 GMT
It generally takes time for "events" and polling on specific items to feed into voting intentions - that is to say, the movements on "how will you vote?" are slower than those on "what do you think about this or that?" People's answers are "dragged back" by how they voted last time and that typically takes at leas t a year to wear off. However, how people vote in a new election of any kind is less affected, but we have none of those at the moment to test it by.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 27, 2020 14:41:35 GMT
Lib Dems delaying their leadership race until 2021 might have something to do with that. Aren’t they doing it online this autumn now or did I dream that (entirely possible as I’ve got one weekend which is a complete blur as my mind was elsewhere)? You're correct. It got pushed back to 2021, then forward again thanks to a ruling from the board.
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J.G.Harston
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May 27, 2020 16:16:18 GMT
Post by J.G.Harston on May 27, 2020 16:16:18 GMT
Aren’t they doing it online this autumn now or did I dream that (entirely possible as I’ve got one weekend which is a complete blur as my mind was elsewhere)? You're correct. It got pushed back to 2021, then forward again thanks to a ruling from the board. Phew, you had me briefly worrying there, I've just written to my members telling them it's June to August this year.
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Post by BossMan on May 27, 2020 16:24:43 GMT
The Conservative Party has now held office for a full 10 years, and they're going to be in office for longer than Labour were under Blair and Brown. I suppose a drop in the opinion polls was inevitable at some point or another. Back in May 1989, the Tories had been in power for a decade and Labour were on the cusp of opening up a poll lead in the wake of the local election and the European Parliament election results.
To take off my admin hat for a moment; as a Conservative voter, I am under no illusions: one day there will be a Labour led government of some sort or another; obviously I don't like it but it's the nature of politics and we've all lived through it before. I am unconvinced it will necessarily happen in 2024, but I'm more prepared for it now that we don't have someone with the politics of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader. I was more dismayed in some respects with the 2017 result than I was by the Blair victories.
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YouGov
May 30, 2020 8:01:14 GMT
Post by hullenedge on May 30, 2020 8:01:14 GMT
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YouGov
May 30, 2020 8:01:43 GMT
Post by hullenedge on May 30, 2020 8:01:43 GMT
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YouGov
May 30, 2020 8:12:02 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 8:12:02 GMT
If that is so, then that's still going to mean a solid Tory majority. More evidence of Labour picking up the voters they don't really need. It would be interesting to see how this relates to place.
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Deleted
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May 30, 2020 8:13:16 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 8:13:16 GMT
Starmer doing better with remainers than Corbyn ever did but just as bad with leavers
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YouGov
May 30, 2020 8:15:30 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 8:15:30 GMT
The Conservative Party has now held office for a full 10 years, and they're going to be in office for longer than Labour were under Blair and Brown. I suppose a drop in the opinion polls was inevitable at some point or another. Back in May 1989, the Tories had been in power for a decade and Labour were on the cusp of opening up a poll lead in the wake of the local election and the European Parliament election results. To take off my admin hat for a moment; as a Conservative voter, I am under no illusions: one day there will be a Labour led government of some sort or another; obviously I don't like it but it's the nature of politics and we've all lived through it before. I am unconvinced it will necessarily happen in 2024, but I'm more prepared for it now that we don't have someone with the politics of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader. I was more dismayed in some respects with the 2017 result than I was by the Blair victories. That sums up exactly why I won't be voting Labour under Starmer.
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YouGov
May 30, 2020 8:18:04 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 8:18:04 GMT
Starmer doing better with remainers than Corbyn ever did but just as bad with leavers So we can expect perhaps a few gains - Reading West, Wycombe, Kensington - but generally an increase of the Labour vote in upmarket Remain voting Tory safe seats, which won't change anything much
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 8:20:06 GMT
Starmer doing better with remainers than Corbyn ever did but just as bad with leavers So we can expect perhaps a few gains - Reading East, Wycombe, Kensington - but generally an increase of the Labour vote in upmarket Remain voting Tory safe seats, which won't change anything much goes back to that conversation we had about labour doing well where they already are and where they've no chance of winning
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Post by matureleft on May 30, 2020 8:38:39 GMT
It really is very early days, with no election in prospect for several years. The "low hanging fruit" of a shift from Corbyn-branded Labour to one without that brand (Starmer remains too unknown to have developed anything more than the removal of a negative) is the return of those who see themselves as liberal progressives and who were shocked by some of the more unpleasant stuff under Corbyn. It's really far too early for those who moved to the Tories over Brexit to express buyers' regret - the purchase hasn't really arrived (!)and for many it would have been a big step on which they must try to feel some personal justification. They aren't normal swing voters.
The problem for the Tories in those areas will be to keep the promise on rebalancing the economy at a point when the fiscal cupboard is more than bare, it's been demolished! And some of the things those voters care about beyond Brexit may not fit the Tory agenda - tackling zero hours for example.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 30, 2020 8:50:49 GMT
If that is so, then that's still going to mean a solid Tory majority. More evidence of Labour picking up the voters they don't really need. It would be interesting to see how this relates to place. Two observations: 1. The shift of Remainers back to Labour is beneficial not just as gross numbers. The elimination of a fundamental policy disagreement between Labour and Lib Dem makes it much easier for the two parties to operate informal co-operation short of pact and for tactical voting by either side 2. Labour's target Leave voters are a specific sub-set, primarily in the north and midlands. There is every reason to think the Tory allegiance of those voters is soft and conditional on the govt delivering improvements to the regions, which (economically at least) looks very challenging (always was IMO, if it was easy it'd have been done decades back). What Labour needs to do - and it'll have to be Lab not LD or anyone else - is to make its own offer
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