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Post by justin124 on Jul 24, 2021 9:45:16 GMT
It is the second, not the first, poll to show a much narrower Conservative lead. As always the rule with polls is to look at trends, not individual polls. Prima facie this is a better poll for Labour than the Survation survey, given the Yougov 'house effect' and the high Green vote.In a GE - particularly when the main parties are close - the Greens are likely to be squeezed to Labour's advantage taking the party close to poll parity with the Tories.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,531
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Post by johng on Jul 24, 2021 11:00:31 GMT
I'm skeptical, to be honest, that this one issue would cause such a drop given that it's not exactly that big a deal in the grand scheme of things and only really interests those interested in politics.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,074
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 24, 2021 11:13:56 GMT
Local byelections can run in front of polling trends or behind them. And even these days they are quite often exactly that, local. I may have said Rallings and Thrasher's local elections model put Hague ahead in 2001(so they adjusted to allow for Labour's poll lead and came up with Lab 41%,Con 32%,Lib Dem 20%-1997 it was 44/31/20 but their personal predictions for the Reuters' panel of experts showed lower Lab and higher Con shares)
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 24, 2021 11:17:47 GMT
I'm skeptical, to be honest, that this one issue would cause such a drop given that it's not exactly that big a deal in the grand scheme of things and only really interests those interested in politics. There was always going to be some unwind from a very obvious ‘rally round the flag effect’. Now that the pandemic is over in terms of most people’s behaviour we should start to see this. This may come as a surprise to some who chose to believe that the excellent Tory poll rating were down to competent government and handling of the pandemic.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 24, 2021 11:24:40 GMT
I'm skeptical, to be honest, that this one issue would cause such a drop given that it's not exactly that big a deal in the grand scheme of things and only really interests those interested in politics. It sounds extremely plausible; the previous big drop for the Conservatives was after the Cummings trip to Castle Barnard; the “one rule for us, one rule for them” argument definitely cuts through, and is somewhat bipartisan as well.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 24, 2021 11:40:18 GMT
I'm skeptical, to be honest, that this one issue would cause such a drop given that it's not exactly that big a deal in the grand scheme of things and only really interests those interested in politics. It sounds extremely plausible; the previous big drop for the Conservatives was after the Cummings trip to Castle Barnard; the “one rule for us, one rule for them” argument definitely cuts through, and is somewhat bipartisan as well. This was not at all an issue confined to "people interested in politics" It was of great interest to the millions of people "pinged" and told to self isolate in the run up to "Freedom Day", their friends and families, employers, and millions of parents with pinged off school children.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 24, 2021 12:03:37 GMT
There are now 2 polls with fieldwork definitely after "ping-gate" on the 18th July. These show the Tories down by 4% and 6%.
Redfield and Wilton imply that they do all the fieldwork on the same day they publish. However I have not found this explicitly stated on their website, and I am suspicious. Their poll on the 19th had the Tories up 1%.
Comres also had the Tories up 1%. Their fieldwork was over 3 days finishing on the 19th. So perhaps 2/3 before ping-gate or perhaps much more if the 3rd day was just finding a few gaps in the sample demographic.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 24, 2021 13:18:02 GMT
I'm skeptical, to be honest, that this one issue would cause such a drop given that it's not exactly that big a deal in the grand scheme of things and only really interests those interested in politics. There was always going to be some unwind from a very obvious ‘rally round the flag effect’. Now that the pandemic is over in terms of most people’s behaviour we should start to see this. This may come as a surprise to some who chose to believe that the excellent Tory poll rating were down to competent government and handling of the pandemic. I think you are right there. The challenge for Labour is that to pull ahead they do require a bit more of an offer than they are currently displaying. I don't think waiting for the Tories to mess up significantly is a sensible strategy
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 24, 2021 15:18:22 GMT
There was always going to be some unwind from a very obvious ‘rally round the flag effect’. Now that the pandemic is over in terms of most people’s behaviour we should start to see this. This may come as a surprise to some who chose to believe that the excellent Tory poll rating were down to competent government and handling of the pandemic. I think you are right there. The challenge for Labour is that to pull ahead they do require a bit more of an offer than they are currently displaying. I don't think waiting for the Tories to mess up significantly is a sensible strategy It is basically the only way they have beaten a Tory govt in living memory though. A Party in power has a lot of levers to pull. The Lib Dems did try to change that with the fixed term parliament Act, but that proved illusory thanks to the loopholes. Now the Tories are doing everything they can to protect their incumbency. However, post covid austerity may kill them
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YouGov
Jul 24, 2021 15:25:44 GMT
via mobile
Post by Merseymike on Jul 24, 2021 15:25:44 GMT
I think you are right there. The challenge for Labour is that to pull ahead they do require a bit more of an offer than they are currently displaying. I don't think waiting for the Tories to mess up significantly is a sensible strategy It is basically the only way they have beaten a Tory govt in living memory though. A Party in power has a lot of levers to pull. The Lib Dems did try to change that with the fixed term parliament Act, but that proved illusory thanks to the loopholes. Now the Tories are doing everything they can to protect their incumbency. However, post covid austerity may kill them No I don't agree. Both Wilson and Blair definitely had a specific message and appeal - a level of distinctiveness. Blair was undoubtedly helped by just how much the government had run out of steam, certainly, but at the time there was a real sense of "heading somewhere" I don't get any of that same feeling now, and it's clear that Brexit is making a longer term impact post-Brexit. I don't think Labour have really accepted Brexit yet hence the lack of joined up thinking ( a half hearted call to buy British isn't enough)
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 24, 2021 15:47:47 GMT
It is basically the only way they have beaten a Tory govt in living memory though. A Party in power has a lot of levers to pull. The Lib Dems did try to change that with the fixed term parliament Act, but that proved illusory thanks to the loopholes. Now the Tories are doing everything they can to protect their incumbency. However, post covid austerity may kill them No I don't agree. Both Wilson and Blair definitely had a specific message and appeal - a level of distinctiveness. Blair was undoubtedly helped by just how much the government had run out of steam, certainly, but at the time there was a real sense of "heading somewhere" I don't get any of that same feeling now, and it's clear that Brexit is making a longer term impact post-Brexit. I don't think Labour have really accepted Brexit yet hence the lack of joined up thinking ( a half hearted call to buy British isn't enough) Brexit is making a long term impact because it is having a long term impact. Nothing to do with the Labour Party and not under their control. Agreeing with the Tories on Brexit is hardly the mark of a "distinctive strategy". Many current Labour voters are still motivated by Brexit and will vote for a Party that wants a closer relationship with Europe (eg. Single Market). I do agree that satisfying them will not win an election, but neither will the other side be convinced by Labour suddenly agreeing with the Tories on it.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 24, 2021 15:57:52 GMT
No I don't agree. Both Wilson and Blair definitely had a specific message and appeal - a level of distinctiveness. Blair was undoubtedly helped by just how much the government had run out of steam, certainly, but at the time there was a real sense of "heading somewhere" I don't get any of that same feeling now, and it's clear that Brexit is making a longer term impact post-Brexit. I don't think Labour have really accepted Brexit yet hence the lack of joined up thinking ( a half hearted call to buy British isn't enough) Brexit is making a long term impact because it is having a long term impact. Nothing to do with the Labour Party and not under their control. Agreeing with the Tories on Brexit is hardly the mark of a "distinctive strategy". Many current Labour voters are still motivated by Brexit and will vote for a Party that wants a closer relationship with Europe (eg. Single Market). I do agree that satisfying them will not win an election, but neither will the other side be convinced by Labour suddenly agreeing with the Tories on it. I honestly feel Labour should leave the 'maybe we might rejoin' to you. There's no mileage in it, because it is not going to happen for at least a generation. Brexit may not be under their control. But having alternative policies to the Tories certainly is. I don't think Labour should "agree with the Tories" at all. But what they need to do is accept that we have departed the EU. If this is done grudgingly then what will come over us "well, we would much rather be in the EU but we aren't, so this is second best". My own view is that Labour need to abandon the pretence of Global Britain and attack it as a way of letting in cheap goods by the back door and losing jobs. It's clichéd nonsense anyway and is just a cover up for support for globalisation. That would be distinctly different from the Tories. I don't think full membership of the single market is likely. There may be some mileage in a Swiss-type set up but whether the EU would want that is another matter
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YouGov
Jul 24, 2021 15:59:44 GMT
Post by justin124 on Jul 24, 2021 15:59:44 GMT
It is basically the only way they have beaten a Tory govt in living memory though. A Party in power has a lot of levers to pull. The Lib Dems did try to change that with the fixed term parliament Act, but that proved illusory thanks to the loopholes. Now the Tories are doing everything they can to protect their incumbency. However, post covid austerity may kill them No I don't agree. Both Wilson and Blair definitely had a specific message and appeal - a level of distinctiveness. Blair was undoubtedly helped by just how much the government had run out of steam, certainly, but at the time there was a real sense of "heading somewhere" I don't get any of that same feeling now, and it's clear that Brexit is making a longer term impact post-Brexit. I don't think Labour have really accepted Brexit yet hence the lack of joined up thinking ( a half hearted call to buy British isn't enough) Wilson only managed to squeak over the line in Oct 1964. The Tories recovered strongly under Alec Douglas- Home who had replaced Macmillan a year earlier.Wilson inherited a big lead which had built up in the last 18 months of Gaitskell's life, and many believe that Labour's victory in 1964 would have proved more decisive had the latter survived to fight the election. I am not persuaded that Brexit per se remains a very salient issue in electoral terms. It did not really feature in the Batley & Spen by election and does not any longer appear to weigh strongly in public consciousness. I have been highly critical of Starmer re- unforced errors - particularly regarding the timing of by elections - but I do not share the view that he needs to have set out a clear policy programme or sense of direction at this stage. He has been hamstrung by the fact of the pandemic, and whatever message he sought to convey would simply not have been listened to.Normal party politics has been in abeyance for nearly 18 months. That may now be changing - and explain the the tighter poll ratings.
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YouGov
Jul 24, 2021 16:03:22 GMT
via mobile
Post by Merseymike on Jul 24, 2021 16:03:22 GMT
I think like many instinctively sympathetic to the Labour right, you are being a little too complacent. And while there may not be a need to have detailed policy in every area, at the moment no-one knows what they stand for at all. That will need rectifying before an election. Given the Tory rediscovery of the magic money tree, they will need a different approach. I'm not convinced there is anywhere near enough as yet.
I agree about Brexit as an issue. It's done. We have left. The issue is what now, and that's where some positive direction is required
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Post by justin124 on Jul 24, 2021 16:06:03 GMT
It will need to happen - but at a time when the public is ready to tune in. That has not been true since March 2020.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 24, 2021 16:27:59 GMT
It will need to happen - but at a time when the public is ready to tune in. That has not been true since March 2020. They can't leave it too late, either. My concern is that they don't actually have anything much to say. Thinking on the Labour right really hasn't been in great abundance since 2015 and all the energies have been expounded on internal battles. And unhinged support for remain.
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YouGov
Jul 24, 2021 16:31:13 GMT
Post by manchesterman on Jul 24, 2021 16:31:13 GMT
It will need to happen - but at a time when the public is ready to tune in. That has not been true since March 2020. True, but I do hope they have actually been thinking about it and planning for it in the background. Although the next election may be in 2024, it could easily be 2023 which is effectively not much more than 18 months away!
Brexit shouldnt even be used in any documentation now. It's a toxic phrase and will cast voters' minds (on all sides) back to 2016 & the chaos that happened thereafter. They need something with the feel of the "white heat of technology" policy launch of the Wilson government.
Labour (and the LDs and others) need to try to somehow turn the tide of politics away from this culture war nonsense of the Johnson party and get back focussing on bread & butter issues like trade, health, police, transport etc. Things that actually affect people's lives on a daily basis, not the confected fluff propagated in the Mail, Express, Telegraph et al!
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Post by justin124 on Jul 24, 2021 17:26:12 GMT
It will need to happen - but at a time when the public is ready to tune in. That has not been true since March 2020. True, but I do hope they have actually been thinking about it and planning for it in the background. Although the next election may be in 2024, it could easily be 2023 which is effectively not much more than 18 months away! Brexit shouldnt even be used in any documentation now. It's a toxic phrase and will cast voters' minds (on all sides) back to 2016 & the chaos that happened thereafter. They need something with the feel of the "white heat of technology" policy launch of the Wilson government.
Labour (and the LDs and others) need to try to somehow turn the tide of politics away from this culture war nonsense of the Johnson party and get back focussing on bread & butter issues like trade, health, police, transport etc. Things that actually affect people's lives on a daily basis, not the confected fluff propagated in the Mail, Express, Telegraph et al!
Wilson's white heat of technology' speech was delivered at Scarborough in October 1963 - barely a year before the 1964 election.He had become leader in mid-February that year.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 24, 2021 17:55:21 GMT
Brexit is making a long term impact because it is having a long term impact. Nothing to do with the Labour Party and not under their control. Agreeing with the Tories on Brexit is hardly the mark of a "distinctive strategy". Many current Labour voters are still motivated by Brexit and will vote for a Party that wants a closer relationship with Europe (eg. Single Market). I do agree that satisfying them will not win an election, but neither will the other side be convinced by Labour suddenly agreeing with the Tories on it. I honestly feel Labour should leave the 'maybe we might rejoin' to you. There's no mileage in it, because it is not going to happen for at least a generation. Brexit may not be under their control. But having alternative policies to the Tories certainly is. I don't think Labour should "agree with the Tories" at all. But what they need to do is accept that we have departed the EU. If this is done grudgingly then what will come over us "well, we would much rather be in the EU but we aren't, so this is second best". My own view is that Labour need to abandon the pretence of Global Britain and attack it as a way of letting in cheap goods by the back door and losing jobs. It's clichéd nonsense anyway and is just a cover up for support for globalisation. That would be distinctly different from the Tories. I don't think full membership of the single market is likely. There may be some mileage in a Swiss-type set up but whether the EU would want that is another matter Full membership of the Single Market is an aim that I predict will be espoused by Labour in the next electoral cycle, assuming they don't win the next GE. It is actually what most people wanted after the referendum. If my Party is smart it will name it as a long term aim in this Parliament. Brexit has redefined the tribes of Britain away from the old class structure. It is also by far the most significant event for Britain since WW2 (more significant than joining the EU in terms of changing our politics). Arguing with the EU is part of the current Tory raison d'etre, so they are going to keep it in the headlines, and every time they blame the EU for things as many people will be pissed off as will be cheering. And a lot of Labour and Lib Dem members and voters are in the pissed off group. I would say it has the status of a "value" rather than a policy in the minds of a lot of people on both sides. You can bet that most (but of course not all) of the Tory switchers in Chesham and Amersham were Remainers...
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 24, 2021 19:07:21 GMT
I honestly feel Labour should leave the 'maybe we might rejoin' to you. There's no mileage in it, because it is not going to happen for at least a generation. Brexit may not be under their control. But having alternative policies to the Tories certainly is. I don't think Labour should "agree with the Tories" at all. But what they need to do is accept that we have departed the EU. If this is done grudgingly then what will come over us "well, we would much rather be in the EU but we aren't, so this is second best". My own view is that Labour need to abandon the pretence of Global Britain and attack it as a way of letting in cheap goods by the back door and losing jobs. It's clichéd nonsense anyway and is just a cover up for support for globalisation. That would be distinctly different from the Tories. I don't think full membership of the single market is likely. There may be some mileage in a Swiss-type set up but whether the EU would want that is another matter Full membership of the Single Market is an aim that I predict will be espoused by Labour in the next electoral cycle, assuming they don't win the next GE. It is actually what most people wanted after the referendum. If my Party is smart it will name it as a long term aim in this Parliament. Brexit has redefined the tribes of Britain away from the old class structure. It is also by far the most significant event for Britain since WW2 (more significant than joining the EU in terms of changing our politics). Arguing with the EU is part of the current Tory raison d'etre, so they are going to keep it in the headlines, and every time they blame the EU for things as many people will be pissed off as will be cheering. And a lot of Labour and Lib Dem members and voters are in the pissed off group. I would say it has the status of a "value" rather than a policy in the minds of a lot of people on both sides. You can bet that most (but of course not all) of the Tory switchers in Chesham and Amersham were Remainers... By the next election the UK will likely have joined CPTPP and have a smaller share of our trade with the EU (and greater share with the rest of the world). Divergence in trade, services, standards, immigration policy has begun and will also likely grow. Labour could espouse 'something' about the single market but they'd risk sounding irrelevant.
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