|
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jul 24, 2021 19:18:18 GMT
Full membership of the Single Market is an aim that I predict will be espoused by Labour in the next electoral cycle, assuming they don't win the next GE. It is actually what most people wanted after the referendum. If my Party is smart it will name it as a long term aim in this Parliament. Brexit has redefined the tribes of Britain away from the old class structure. It is also by far the most significant event for Britain since WW2 (more significant than joining the EU in terms of changing our politics). Arguing with the EU is part of the current Tory raison d'etre, so they are going to keep it in the headlines, and every time they blame the EU for things as many people will be pissed off as will be cheering. And a lot of Labour and Lib Dem members and voters are in the pissed off group. I would say it has the status of a "value" rather than a policy in the minds of a lot of people on both sides. You can bet that most (but of course not all) of the Tory switchers in Chesham and Amersham were Remainers... By the next election the UK will likely have joined CPTPP and have a smaller share of our trade with the EU (and greater share with the rest of the world). Divergence in trade, services, standards, immigration policy has begun and will also likely grow. Labour could espouse 'something' about the single market but they'd risk sounding irrelevant. If Labour went pro-single market it would be played by the Tories as pro-EU. Labour might gain a few seats in the south with that position but it would likely lose more in the rest of the country and get trounced. Labour's best strategy is to say we back the 2016 referendum result and will not look at rejoining the EU for at least 10 years.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,282
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jul 24, 2021 19:23:08 GMT
I honestly feel Labour should leave the 'maybe we might rejoin' to you. There's no mileage in it, because it is not going to happen for at least a generation. Brexit may not be under their control. But having alternative policies to the Tories certainly is. I don't think Labour should "agree with the Tories" at all. But what they need to do is accept that we have departed the EU. If this is done grudgingly then what will come over us "well, we would much rather be in the EU but we aren't, so this is second best". My own view is that Labour need to abandon the pretence of Global Britain and attack it as a way of letting in cheap goods by the back door and losing jobs. It's clichéd nonsense anyway and is just a cover up for support for globalisation. That would be distinctly different from the Tories. I don't think full membership of the single market is likely. There may be some mileage in a Swiss-type set up but whether the EU would want that is another matter Full membership of the Single Market is an aim that I predict will be espoused by Labour in the next electoral cycle, assuming they don't win the next GE. It is actually what most people wanted after the referendum. If my Party is smart it will name it as a long term aim in this Parliament. Brexit has redefined the tribes of Britain away from the old class structure. It is also by far the most significant event for Britain since WW2 (more significant than joining the EU in terms of changing our politics). Arguing with the EU is part of the current Tory raison d'etre, so they are going to keep it in the headlines, and every time they blame the EU for things as many people will be pissed off as will be cheering. And a lot of Labour and Lib Dem members and voters are in the pissed off group. I would say it has the status of a "value" rather than a policy in the minds of a lot of people on both sides. You can bet that most (but of course not all) of the Tory switchers in Chesham and Amersham were Remainers... Given what comes with the single market, unless some special arrangements could be made, I think some sort of Electoral arrangements would definitely be needed if that became the key issue, or the Tories would maintain their control because of the more efficient distribution of Remain voters
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,282
Member is Online
|
YouGov
Jul 24, 2021 19:25:24 GMT
via mobile
Post by Merseymike on Jul 24, 2021 19:25:24 GMT
By the next election the UK will likely have joined CPTPP and have a smaller share of our trade with the EU (and greater share with the rest of the world). Divergence in trade, services, standards, immigration policy has begun and will also likely grow. Labour could espouse 'something' about the single market but they'd risk sounding irrelevant. If Labour went pro-single market it would be played by the Tories as pro-EU. Labour might gain a few seats in the south with that position but it would likely lose more in the rest of the country and get trounced. Labour's best strategy is to say we back the 2016 referendum result and will not look at rejoining the EU for at least 10 years. I'm tempted to agree more with you, simply because most constituencies have a Leave majority.
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Jul 24, 2021 21:40:00 GMT
By the next election the UK will likely have joined CPTPP and have a smaller share of our trade with the EU (and greater share with the rest of the world). Divergence in trade, services, standards, immigration policy has begun and will also likely grow. Labour could espouse 'something' about the single market but they'd risk sounding irrelevant. If Labour went pro-single market it would be played by the Tories as pro-EU. Labour might gain a few seats in the south with that position but it would likely lose more in the rest of the country and get trounced. Labour's best strategy is to say we back the 2016 referendum result and will not look at rejoining the EU for at least 10 years. The 'we'll wait ten years' strategy won't survive an election campaign. It will be seen as can kicking and the media will scent blood. They may propose a 'double lock' on any future referendum - Yes + 40% of the electorate - and hope that closes any debate.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,282
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jul 24, 2021 21:44:44 GMT
If Labour went pro-single market it would be played by the Tories as pro-EU. Labour might gain a few seats in the south with that position but it would likely lose more in the rest of the country and get trounced. Labour's best strategy is to say we back the 2016 referendum result and will not look at rejoining the EU for at least 10 years. The 'we'll wait ten years' strategy won't survive an election campaign. It will be seen as can kicking and the media will scent blood. They may propose a 'double lock' on any future referendum - Yes + 40% of the electorate - and hope that closes any debate. Also it would not enable anything other than short-termism and that's one of the major problems with politics.
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jul 24, 2021 21:48:26 GMT
By the next election the UK will likely have joined CPTPP and have a smaller share of our trade with the EU (and greater share with the rest of the world). Divergence in trade, services, standards, immigration policy has begun and will also likely grow. Labour could espouse 'something' about the single market but they'd risk sounding irrelevant. If Labour went pro-single market it would be played by the Tories as pro-EU. Labour might gain a few seats in the south with that position but it would likely lose more in the rest of the country and get trounced. Labour's best strategy is to say we back the 2016 referendum result and will not look at rejoining the EU for at least 10 years. The Tories will paint Labour as pro-EU whatever. I don't think for a moment that Brexit is going to be the big issue in the next election for most people. If Labour are to get back their disaffected voters in the Midlands it will because the Tories are perceived not to have delivered on their promises. Leave voters are sure Brexit is done now forever. However our relationship with Europe is not done, especially regarding N Ireland, and a position will have to be taken. However, even in the most Brexity seat there are still 30% Remain voters, most of whom voted Labour in 2019. Labour has to keep them from going Green or Lib Dem whilst courting the Leave voters who care about Wokeness more than Brexit now. It is a tricky tightrope
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,282
Member is Online
|
YouGov
Jul 24, 2021 22:07:37 GMT
via mobile
Post by Merseymike on Jul 24, 2021 22:07:37 GMT
If Labour went pro-single market it would be played by the Tories as pro-EU. Labour might gain a few seats in the south with that position but it would likely lose more in the rest of the country and get trounced. Labour's best strategy is to say we back the 2016 referendum result and will not look at rejoining the EU for at least 10 years. The Tories will paint Labour as pro-EU whatever. I don't think for a moment that Brexit is going to be the big issue in the next election for most people. If Labour are to get back their disaffected voters in the Midlands it will because the Tories are perceived not to have delivered on their promises. Leave voters are sure Brexit is done now forever. However our relationship with Europe is not done, especially regarding N Ireland, and a position will have to be taken. However, even in the most Brexity seat there are still 30% Remain voters, most of whom voted Labour in 2019. Labour has to keep them from going Green or Lib Dem whilst courting the Leave voters who care about Wokeness more than Brexit now. It is a tricky tightrope Labour can't outdo the Tories on so-called "wokeness" and neither should they try. If that has become their priority then they will vote Tory. I think those voters would only respond to a perceived economic appeal should the promises made fall flat
|
|
European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
|
Post by European Lefty on Jul 25, 2021 1:24:19 GMT
The Tories will paint Labour as pro-EU whatever. I don't think for a moment that Brexit is going to be the big issue in the next election for most people. If Labour are to get back their disaffected voters in the Midlands it will because the Tories are perceived not to have delivered on their promises. Leave voters are sure Brexit is done now forever. However our relationship with Europe is not done, especially regarding N Ireland, and a position will have to be taken. However, even in the most Brexity seat there are still 30% Remain voters, most of whom voted Labour in 2019. Labour has to keep them from going Green or Lib Dem whilst courting the Leave voters who care about Wokeness more than Brexit now. It is a tricky tightrope Labour can't outdo the Tories on so-called "wokeness" and neither should they try. If that has become their priority then they will vote Tory. I think those voters would only respond to a perceived economic appeal should the promises made fall flat To be honest, my canvassing experience would suggest that we didn't lose voters because we supported racial equality or LGBT rights but because people felt we prioritised those issues at the expense of other issuesLabour's route back to power will include both what right-wing voters deride as "wokeness" and a distinct and fundamentally Labour economic appeal
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,725
|
YouGov
Jul 25, 2021 1:30:23 GMT
Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 25, 2021 1:30:23 GMT
By the next election the UK will likely have joined CPTPP and have a smaller share of our trade with the EU (and greater share with the rest of the world). Divergence in trade, services, standards, immigration policy has begun and will also likely grow. Labour could espouse 'something' about the single market but they'd risk sounding irrelevant. If Labour went pro-single market it would be played by the Tories as pro-EU. Labour might gain a few seats in the south with that position but it would likely lose more in the rest of the country and get trounced. Labour's best strategy is to say we back the 2016 referendum result and will not look at rejoining the EU for at least 10 years. I'd advise advocating to be in a common market not a single market. "Single" market implies exclusionaryism, "Common" market implies sharedness. As a free trader, I'd advocate the entire world being a common market anyway.
|
|
|
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jul 25, 2021 4:50:16 GMT
If Labour went pro-single market it would be played by the Tories as pro-EU. Labour might gain a few seats in the south with that position but it would likely lose more in the rest of the country and get trounced. Labour's best strategy is to say we back the 2016 referendum result and will not look at rejoining the EU for at least 10 years. I'd advise advocating to be in a common market not a single market. "Single" market implies exclusionaryism, "Common" market implies sharedness. As a free trader, I'd advocate the entire world being a common market anyway. That may work, but ruling out rejoining the EU specificly rather than the can kicking strategy is probably better for Labour, if they want to become the government party. (I know I suggested can kicking as a possible good option) Brexit is still there as an influence, I personally will find it very difficult to vote for a rejoin the EU party at the next General Election, whatever their other policies are. Other policies will need rejigging by Labour too if they want to win.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,282
Member is Online
|
YouGov
Jul 25, 2021 7:12:28 GMT
Post by Merseymike on Jul 25, 2021 7:12:28 GMT
Labour can't outdo the Tories on so-called "wokeness" and neither should they try. If that has become their priority then they will vote Tory. I think those voters would only respond to a perceived economic appeal should the promises made fall flat To be honest, my canvassing experience would suggest that we didn't lose voters because we supported racial equality or LGBT rights but because people felt we prioritised those issues at the expense of other issuesLabour's route back to power will include both what right-wing voters deride as "wokeness" and a distinct and fundamentally Labour economic appeal Very much agree with that. Not that it's necessarily reality - the approach in 2017 and 2019 had some quite robust economic proposals. I think the image of Labour as a party run from London was an issue, but I can only say that after a really dreadful evening of phone canvassing Blackpool where every single call raised Brexit in a very negative waythat it was Brexit, not woke, which mattered. Under the current leadership the Londocentric perception remains, but the lack of policy direction on those basics is giving more space for focus on things like taking the knee.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,828
|
YouGov
Jul 25, 2021 9:03:57 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Jul 25, 2021 9:03:57 GMT
Under the current leadership the Londocentric perception remains, but the lack of policy direction on those basics is giving more space for focus on things like taking the knee.Though as you have said yourself, most people who get really exercised about that aren't so likely to vote Labour anyway.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,282
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jul 25, 2021 9:20:57 GMT
Under the current leadership the Londocentric perception remains, but the lack of policy direction on those basics is giving more space for focus on things like taking the knee.Though as you have said yourself, most people who get really exercised about that aren't so likely to vote Labour anyway. True enough, but it does rather fill a void and give ammunition to those who already think "Labour aren't bothered about people like me"
|
|
|
YouGov
Jul 25, 2021 9:25:22 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 25, 2021 9:25:22 GMT
Though as you have said yourself, most people who get really exercised about that aren't so likely to vote Labour anyway. True enough, but it does rather fill a void and give ammunition to those who already think "Labour aren't bothered about people like me" I think that's spot on. I'd say that it didn't start with Starmer, though it has got worse.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,828
|
Post by The Bishop on Jul 25, 2021 9:27:58 GMT
Sure, no denying that Labour needs to be seen as offering something meaningful.
There have been signs in the last few weeks that things may be getting slightly better on the messaging front, but still a fair way to go.
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jul 25, 2021 11:02:08 GMT
If Labour went pro-single market it would be played by the Tories as pro-EU. Labour might gain a few seats in the south with that position but it would likely lose more in the rest of the country and get trounced. Labour's best strategy is to say we back the 2016 referendum result and will not look at rejoining the EU for at least 10 years. I'd advise advocating to be in a common market not a single market. "Single" market implies exclusionaryism, "Common" market implies sharedness. As a free trader, I'd advocate the entire world being a common market anyway. The problem being that free trade is favoured most by those who control the means of trade. And it does not take account of problems like climate change, because it is driven by profit Once upon a time we had the British Empire and ruled the waves. Free trade was very much in our interests and we used it to enrich ourselves at the expense of others. Now we have on the one hand global corporations, more powerful than many countries, and on the other the Chinese following the British Empire model with the Belt and Road. In today's world you need to be in a trading block big enough to protect itself, imo. That is what the USA and China do, and the EU Single Market. Phone roaming charges are an example of the EU taking on global capitalism. The EU is also capable of influencing the market towards zero carbon, protecting employment rights, maintaining food standards etc. I do not trust the British govt to do any of those things. Of course there are short term advantages to a "bonfire of regulations", but short term is what it is, when there are bigger and more aggressive fish in the sea.
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
Member is Online
|
Post by Tony Otim on Jul 25, 2021 14:15:32 GMT
With due respect to the Greens, while I think there has incremental increase in the number of loyal Green voters over the last decade, when I see a Green vote share north of about 5-6% I tend to think there are a lot of voters looking for a home. (True of us too if we get above about 15%) I wouldn't disagree with that, except that I think you're being a bit generous to your own party and that the figure for the Lib Dems is probably closer to 10 than 15% these days.
|
|
|
Post by ibfc on Jul 25, 2021 14:21:49 GMT
To be honest, my canvassing experience would suggest that we didn't lose voters because we supported racial equality or LGBT rights but because people felt we prioritised those issues at the expense of other issuesLabour's route back to power will include both what right-wing voters deride as "wokeness" and a distinct and fundamentally Labour economic appeal Very much agree with that. Not that it's necessarily reality - the approach in 2017 and 2019 had some quite robust economic proposals. I think the image of Labour as a party run from London was an issue, but I can only say that after a really dreadful evening of phone canvassing Blackpool where every single call raised Brexit in a very negative waythat it was Brexit, not woke, which mattered. Under the current leadership the Londocentric perception remains, but the lack of policy direction on those basics is giving more space for focus on things like taking the knee. I think people are very unlikely to vote on anti 'woke' sentiment (speaking as someone who is very non 'woke' myself). People who are 'woke' are far more likely to vote on such issues than those who are not 'woke'. The exception is when there are serious real world consequences such as the recent controversy over changing selection patterns in certain US counties (even there, I don't think anything thing of consequence has actually happened).
|
|
|
YouGov
Jul 25, 2021 18:11:58 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 25, 2021 18:11:58 GMT
With due respect to the Greens, while I think there has incremental increase in the number of loyal Green voters over the last decade, when I see a Green vote share north of about 5-6% I tend to think there are a lot of voters looking for a home. (True of us too if we get above about 15%) I wouldn't disagree with that, except that I think you're being a bit generous to your own party and that the figure for the Lib Dems is probably closer to 10 than 15% these days. Fair point. I'm thinking in context of ten years ago, it remains to be seen if that can be rebuilt.
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,566
|
YouGov
Jul 25, 2021 18:52:17 GMT
Post by Khunanup on Jul 25, 2021 18:52:17 GMT
I wouldn't disagree with that, except that I think you're being a bit generous to your own party and that the figure for the Lib Dems is probably closer to 10 than 15% these days. Fair point. I'm thinking in context of ten years ago, it remains to be seen if that can be rebuilt. No, I think you're closer to the mark AiS. There's still quite a large proportion of Lib Dem/Tory switchers that are with us in certain circumstances, not as a NOTA option, which would put the point at which a significant number of your following as NOTA higher. It used to be even higher but with the coalition, that cut down that proportion of similar Lib Dem/Labour switchers (but that is more than it was just a couple of years ago again). I'd also say that the Green proportion kicks in more if they hit 10% rather than 6%.
|
|