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YouGov
Jun 11, 2021 15:12:20 GMT
Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jun 11, 2021 15:12:20 GMT
Well, read what you want into them, but if my party (the supposed "opposition") were thirteen points behind one of the most useless, omnishambles governments in modern British history, personally, I'd be more concerned. The Labour Party is not behind becaue the Greens have reached nearly 30% with 18-25 year olds, because the Greens are not on nearly 30% with 18-25 year olds Whether the Greens are on 30% or not, if Labour can't maintain a significant lead amongst younger votes and get them out to vote at election time, the chances of a Labour government are as funny as you find this poll.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2021 15:23:52 GMT
Something of note, highlighting Labour’s problems: LAB: 35% (-21) GRN: 27% (+23) CON: 21% (-) LD: 12% (+1) SNP: 3% (-3) REF: 1% (-) Voting intention amongst 18-24s (+/- since 2019), 9-10 June. If that is more than a polling error or minor flash-in-the-pan, then the implications for Labour could be as dire as the sudden vote collapse in Scotland.
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The Bishop
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Jun 11, 2021 15:26:37 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Jun 11, 2021 15:26:37 GMT
Well thank you for that, Captain Obvious The point is, it almost certainly is not. At this stage.
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2021 15:50:01 GMT
Post by islington on Jun 11, 2021 15:50:01 GMT
It is very clear that the Greens have moved up a level - they only managed a couple of polls at 4% before the 2019 General Election and now virtually all their poll ratings are above 4% - many quite considerably so - and none below. And it is reasonably easy to hypothesise why - younger XR supporting voters don't now have a Corbynista Labour party and the Lib Dems are obviously tainted by the coalition. Actually the Greens scored very close to their average poll rating in the 2019 General Election. Obviously if Labour or the Lib Dems can come up with a persuasive offer for them then they might switch and they might concentrate more on the seat arithmetic as a General Election approaches. However the Greens may (this time) maintain their rating in that people - especially the young - may say I don't care about the mechanics of FPTP - I want a large green vote to signal that people are concerned about the Climate Emergency. If the Greens do well in the German elections - perhaps even win - then that will be a further boost. And a very large number are concerned about the Climate Emergency and (softer) green issues - such as stockbrokers in Surrey and not just those that clue themselves to tube trains! Although the Greens will be doing exceptionally well to pick up 2 or 3 parliamentary seats at the next election - it could be a turning point (?again) for them. It is an issue for Labour. It may also be a straw in the wind that Remain/Rejoin is still quite a significant issue. And this is an (even) bigger problem for Labour who *could* see their support on that flank absolutely decimated by the Lib Dems and Greens while the Tories decimate them on the other side of the issue! While it does seem to be a "house effect" of yougov rating the Greens higher (and therefore Labour lower) its not just yougov - but also Opinium (7%), NCP (8%), Find out Now (9%) - with a 14k sample. Conversely Savanta ComRes and RWS give the Tories a lead of 10% and 11% - not far off yougov's 13% - but they also give the Greens the lowest recent rating of any pollster at 5%. The Greens are certainly doing better than they have for most of the last 6 years but they did have similar poll ratings in the chaos of summer 2019, which fell away rapidly as talk of an election mounted. You do wonder though when the Green candidate in C&A starts attacking the Lib Dem by quoting Guido Fawkes.. Progressive Alliance, innit?
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2021 15:56:56 GMT
Post by gibbon on Jun 11, 2021 15:56:56 GMT
How many of those who are supporting the Green Party are aware that in Lancaster and the GLA the Greens and the LibDems the Greens are in an allaince with the Tories? When the General Election comes how many would still vote Green if they were aware of the Greens actions?
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2021 16:04:48 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2021 16:04:48 GMT
I can see them getting a UKIP 2015 style result, where they get millions of votes but only Caroline Lucas is elected. Very unlikely I think. Green voters will not want to see a repeat of 2015 when they effectively delivered Cameron's small overall majority. Nonsense. They will vote Green because they wish to support the Green ethos. They will not make that connection at all. They will not overthink it like a bunch of introverted nerds on a psepholological forum. They will not read this nor the warning article that will appear in the Guardian.
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2021 16:26:20 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2021 16:26:20 GMT
Well thank you for that, Captain Obvious The point is, it almost certainly is not. At this stage. I think you should be worried. And the tartness suggests that you are.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 11, 2021 16:33:04 GMT
Well thank you for that, Captain Obvious The point is, it almost certainly is not. At this stage. I think you should be worried. And the tartness suggests that you are. I don't know if they need to be actively worried by this particular poll, but there is an issue about managing to appeal to no-one very much, which I think is exactly what is happening now.
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hengo
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Jun 11, 2021 16:48:24 GMT
Post by hengo on Jun 11, 2021 16:48:24 GMT
I think he’s probably taking the mick . Say what you like about him he’s a pretty sophisticated chap. Keeps Carrie happy; plays well enough internationally ; confuses some ( maybe Sleepy Joe especially) as it doesn’t fit with their briefing. And best of all irritates the covey of Guardianista feminist types who have to find a way of disparaging everything he says.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2021 22:04:23 GMT
How many of those who are supporting the Green Party are aware that in Lancaster and the GLA the Greens and the LibDems the Greens are in an allaince with the Tories? When the General Election comes how many would still vote Green if they were aware of the Greens actions? Will they then have the sordid taint of having 'slept with the enemy' and thus be beyond redemption let alone mere contempt? Is that how you chaps view the situation?
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Merseymike
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Jun 11, 2021 22:08:14 GMT
Post by Merseymike on Jun 11, 2021 22:08:14 GMT
How many of those who are supporting the Green Party are aware that in Lancaster and the GLA the Greens and the LibDems the Greens are in an allaince with the Tories? When the General Election comes how many would still vote Green if they were aware of the Greens actions? Will they then have the sordid taint of having 'slept with the enemy' and thus be beyond redemption let alone mere contempt? Is that how you chaps view the situation? In Lancaster Green voters opt for Labour at General Elections anyway.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 12, 2021 8:36:49 GMT
I will just note that all the excitement on this thread (not to mention more widely) was caused by a *subsample*, yes? Maybe one day people will learn.....
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Jun 12, 2021 9:03:25 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2021 9:03:25 GMT
I can see them getting a UKIP 2015 style result, where they get millions of votes but only Caroline Lucas is elected. Can you? The groups that would vote for them tend not to turn out all that much.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 12, 2021 9:35:46 GMT
Yes, it does. These numbers are from the same poll, however; and are the voting intentions amongst 18-24s year olds. Whilst I agree with you that many would-be Green voters would switch to Labour come a general election, I think the poll highlights one of Labour's major problems, trying to appeal to multiple, disparate voting constituencies at the same time. And, at the moment, they're failing to appeal to any. The only thing keeping Labour in (more or less) one piece is the electoral system. If it wasn't for FPTP they would have been eclipsed-Liberal Party style by now. Just look across Europe. France, Germany, Poland, Czech Rep etc. The traditional centre-left has been eclipsed. The future for the left seems to be populism/Green/hard-left parties. You could have mentioned the Netherlands as well, but as far as *Western* Europe is concerned, they along with France and Germany are about it. Meanwhile we have Spain, Portugal, most of Scandinavia, Austria/Switzerland, Italy, half of Belgium, and more - where centre-left parties have continued either in government or as a major opposition party - despite not having FPTP to "prop them up". And arguably the equivalents in NLD/FRA/GER have marginalised themselves through avoidable mistakes and misrule. So this "Labour is doomed but for the voting system" line is just so much blather
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Merseymike
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Jun 12, 2021 10:28:42 GMT
Post by Merseymike on Jun 12, 2021 10:28:42 GMT
The only thing keeping Labour in (more or less) one piece is the electoral system. If it wasn't for FPTP they would have been eclipsed-Liberal Party style by now. Just look across Europe. France, Germany, Poland, Czech Rep etc. The traditional centre-left has been eclipsed. The future for the left seems to be populism/Green/hard-left parties. You could have mentioned the Netherlands as well, but as far as *Western* Europe is concerned, they along with France and Germany are about it. Meanwhile we have Spain, Portugal, most of Scandinavia, Austria/Switzerland, Italy, half of Belgium, and more - where centre-left parties have continued either in government or as a major opposition party - despite not having FPTP to "prop them up". And arguably the equivalents in NLD/FRA/GER have marginalised themselves through avoidable mistakes and misrule. So this "Labour is doomed but for the voting system" line is just so much blather And if we did have a different voting system, there would still be Labour, but there would probably also be a better-represented Green party, and a left/socialist party. I don't think that a social democratic option would disappear altogether. I also think that a uniform Tory party would be far less likely to remain intact
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Jun 12, 2021 10:38:05 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Jun 12, 2021 10:38:05 GMT
Yes agree with all that (re your last point, you could at least see "populist right" outfits getting more traction with PR)
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Jun 12, 2021 10:55:15 GMT
Post by Merseymike on Jun 12, 2021 10:55:15 GMT
Yes agree with all that (re your last point, you could at least see "populist right" outfits getting more traction with PR) Certainly, and I think it hard to imagine that some populist right Tories wouldn't be tempted to join, as certainly UKIP wouldn't have ended up with a single MP for their vote tally. And that was something most Tory MP's knew would happen.
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Jun 12, 2021 11:07:48 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Jun 12, 2021 11:07:48 GMT
Yes agree with all that (re your last point, you could at least see "populist right" outfits getting more traction with PR) Certainly, and I think it hard to imagine that some populist right Tories wouldn't be tempted to join, as certainly UKIP wouldn't have ended up with a single MP for their vote tally. And that was something most Tory MP's knew would happen. UKIP genuinely thought they might get half a dozen MPs in 2015, mind (Farage was almost certain he would win, for one thing) Only getting a single victory for so many votes was, in retrospect, the beginning of the end for them.
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Jun 12, 2021 11:15:32 GMT
Post by Merseymike on Jun 12, 2021 11:15:32 GMT
Certainly, and I think it hard to imagine that some populist right Tories wouldn't be tempted to join, as certainly UKIP wouldn't have ended up with a single MP for their vote tally. And that was something most Tory MP's knew would happen. UKIP genuinely thought they might get half a dozen MPs in 2015, mind (Farage was almost certain he would win, for one thing) Only getting a single victory for so many votes was, in retrospect, the beginning of the end for them. Yes. But something stopped the likes of Francois from taking the plunge, and it was clearly the thought of his very safe seat.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 12, 2021 11:21:39 GMT
Certainly, and I think it hard to imagine that some populist right Tories wouldn't be tempted to join, as certainly UKIP wouldn't have ended up with a single MP for their vote tally. And that was something most Tory MP's knew would happen. UKIP genuinely thought they might get half a dozen MPs in 2015, mind (Farage was almost certain he would win, for one thing) Only getting a single victory for so many votes was, in retrospect, the beginning of the end for them. The beginning of the end was winning the referendum. Most of our voters thought it was job done then. We were still doing well in local elections in 2016 in places like Thurrock and Great Yarmouth
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