The Bishop
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Jun 12, 2021 11:24:12 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Jun 12, 2021 11:24:12 GMT
I did say "beginning", fully agree that the referendum was the main event that brought about the decline and fall.
But I don't think UKIP ever polled as well after May 2015 as they did before.
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Jun 12, 2021 15:36:44 GMT
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jun 12, 2021 15:36:44 GMT
I think Diane James could have caught on if she had stuck it out.
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pl
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Jun 12, 2021 16:19:24 GMT
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Post by pl on Jun 12, 2021 16:19:24 GMT
You could have mentioned the Netherlands as well, but as far as *Western* Europe is concerned, they along with France and Germany are about it. Meanwhile we have Spain, Portugal, most of Scandinavia, Austria/Switzerland, Italy, half of Belgium, and more - where centre-left parties have continued either in government or as a major opposition party - despite not having FPTP to "prop them up". And arguably the equivalents in NLD/FRA/GER have marginalised themselves through avoidable mistakes and misrule. So this "Labour is doomed but for the voting system" line is just so much blather And if we did have a different voting system, there would still be Labour, but there would probably also be a better-represented Green party, and a left/socialist party. I don't think that a social democratic option would disappear altogether. I also think that a uniform Tory party would be far less likely to remain intact Under PR, the Labour Party world probably survive the way the old Liberal Party survives within the LDs. The Labour Party far more than any other UK party is a coalition of different parties/viewpoints.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 13, 2021 9:27:03 GMT
And if we did have a different voting system, there would still be Labour, but there would probably also be a better-represented Green party, and a left/socialist party. I don't think that a social democratic option would disappear altogether. I also think that a uniform Tory party would be far less likely to remain intact Under PR, the Labour Party world probably survive the way the old Liberal Party survives within the LDs. The Labour Party far more than any other UK party is a coalition of different parties/viewpoints.Well, perhaps. But there is an argument the Tories are almost as diverse, they have just (unlike Labour) found something to broadly unify them for the time being.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jun 15, 2021 7:24:51 GMT
Under PR, the Labour Party world probably survive the way the old Liberal Party survives within the LDs. The Labour Party far more than any other UK party is a coalition of different parties/viewpoints.Well, perhaps. But there is an argument the Tories are almost as diverse, they have just (unlike Labour) found something to broadly unify them for the time being. The only thing that unifies the Conservatives is gaining and keeping power.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 15, 2021 7:33:42 GMT
Well, perhaps. But there is an argument the Tories are almost as diverse, they have just (unlike Labour) found something to broadly unify them for the time being. The only thing that unifies the Conservatives is gaining and keeping power. Bang on. It's not necessarily a bad thing, btw. Understanding power (and money) are vital attributes of a government.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 15, 2021 10:28:28 GMT
Well, perhaps. But there is an argument the Tories are almost as diverse, they have just (unlike Labour) found something to broadly unify them for the time being. The only thing that unifies the Conservatives is gaining and keeping power. Traditionally, yes. But it became a more ideological party post-Thatcher, and that led to the sorts of divisions other parties had been long familiar with. "Brexit" has provided something over which most of the Tory tribe can unite again.
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Jun 15, 2021 11:02:21 GMT
Post by justin124 on Jun 15, 2021 11:02:21 GMT
The only thing that unifies the Conservatives is gaining and keeping power. Traditionally, yes. But it became a more ideological party post-Thatcher, and that led to the sorts of divisions other parties had been long familiar with. "Brexit" has provided something over which most of the Tory tribe can unite again. But Brexit has alienated many traditional middle class Tories - the postwar Heathite and Heseltinian National Liberal types.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 15, 2021 11:13:10 GMT
The only thing that unifies the Conservatives is gaining and keeping power. Traditionally, yes. But it became a more ideological party post-Thatcher, and that led to the sorts of divisions other parties had been long familiar with. "Brexit" has provided something over which most of the Tory tribe can unite again. Which is extraordinary for someone of my generation who can remember the time when what united the Tory party was that they were fanatically pro-Europe.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2021 11:28:46 GMT
Traditionally, yes. But it became a more ideological party post-Thatcher, and that led to the sorts of divisions other parties had been long familiar with. "Brexit" has provided something over which most of the Tory tribe can unite again. Which is extraordinary for someone of my generation who can remember the time when what united the Tory party was that they were fanatically pro-Europe. That really was never true of either the parliamentary party or the membership. They followed loyally the mendacious Heathite view of benefit in the trading aspect of the 'Community' but there was no enthusiasm for anything else at all except in a small minority. Even at the time of the First Referendum there were plenty like me campaigning for 'Out' and the main pull for the Heathite faction vote was the strong Labour and TUC element in the 'Out Campaign' and some of the prominent speakers for 'Out'.
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Post by justin124 on Jun 15, 2021 11:33:59 GMT
Which is extraordinary for someone of my generation who can remember the time when what united the Tory party was that they were fanatically pro-Europe. That really was never true of either the parliamentary party or the membership. They followed loyally the mendacious Heathite view of benefit in the trading aspect of the 'Community' but there was no enthusiasm for anything else at all except in a small minority. Even at the time of the First Referendum there were plenty like me campaigning for 'Out' and the main pull for the Heathite faction vote was the strong Labour and TUC element in the 'Out Campaign' and some of the prominent speakers for 'Out'. It is true to say that until the 1992 election , the Tories - overall - were more pro-Europe than Labour.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2021 11:37:36 GMT
That really was never true of either the parliamentary party or the membership. They followed loyally the mendacious Heathite view of benefit in the trading aspect of the 'Community' but there was no enthusiasm for anything else at all except in a small minority. Even at the time of the First Referendum there were plenty like me campaigning for 'Out' and the main pull for the Heathite faction vote was the strong Labour and TUC element in the 'Out Campaign' and some of the prominent speakers for 'Out'. It is true to say that until the 1992 election , the Tories - overall - were more pro-Europe than Labour. Yes. But it decreased on a very regular and near constant month-by-month for decades. Thus the Heath isolation.
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Jun 15, 2021 12:22:25 GMT
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jun 15, 2021 12:22:25 GMT
The only thing that unifies the Conservatives is gaining and keeping power. Traditionally, yes. But it became a more ideological party post-Thatcher, and that led to the sorts of divisions other parties had been long familiar with. "Brexit" has provided something over which most of the Tory tribe can unite again. There was a lot of cross-voting in the 2019 leadership election on the basis of Brexit positioning; indeed, some of Johnson's key allies (Ben Wallace, Grant Shapps) were Remainers.
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YouGov
Jun 15, 2021 13:11:33 GMT
Post by yellowperil on Jun 15, 2021 13:11:33 GMT
Which is extraordinary for someone of my generation who can remember the time when what united the Tory party was that they were fanatically pro-Europe. That really was never true of either the parliamentary party or the membership. They followed loyally the mendacious Heathite view of benefit in the trading aspect of the 'Community' but there was no enthusiasm for anything else at all except in a small minority. Even at the time of the First Referendum there were plenty like me campaigning for 'Out' and the main pull for the Heathite faction vote was the strong Labour and TUC element in the 'Out Campaign' and some of the prominent speakers for 'Out'. I wondered when I wrote that whether I would get a reaction from that quarter! It is hardly surprising that the view from one extreme end of the then Tory party would be different from mine looking in in bemusement from outside. In those days I was free of any party loyalties but was a very moderate member of the European Movement. Nearly everybody else I had dealings within the Movement was in the Tory party, many deeply involved, up to cabinet level, and their enthusiasm for the "cause" far outstripped mine. If you wanted to be anyone in the EM in those days you just had to be a Conservative party member. The reverse of that statement was almost as true! Yes, many of them could have been described as Heathites but at the time that was the mainstream of the Tory party when Heath was, after all, the leader, rather than some narrowly defined faction or clique. But it went far beyond the obvious Heathite suspects- the man I remember above all others in this regard was Nick Ridley, who hardly fitted the Heathite stereotype.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jun 15, 2021 13:34:57 GMT
It is true to say that until the 1992 election , the Tories - overall - were more pro-Europe than Labour. Yes. But it decreased on a very regular and near constant month-by-month for decades. Thus the Heath isolation. Some years ago, I got told by a senior backbencher (an actual one, not a media one) that Heath only hung on for so long because not only did he want to annoy Thatcher but because he actually thought he might get a job under Major. Which is maybe a sign that he needed a therapist rather more urgently than originally thought.
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pl
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Post by pl on Jun 15, 2021 13:40:40 GMT
Yes. But it decreased on a very regular and near constant month-by-month for decades. Thus the Heath isolation. Some years ago, I got told by a senior backbencher (an actual one, not a media one) that Heath only hung on for so long because not only did he want to annoy Thatcher but because he actually thought he might get a job under Major. Which is maybe a sign that he needed a therapist rather more urgently than originally thought. A very strange man. I was at a party in maybe 2000/2001 where I was left in charge of "Heath-sitting duties". He had no small talk at all, and little "big talk" except for three topics: yachts, classical music and the evils of Margaret Thatcher. It was a long, long evening. As I ushered other people over to him, I think the longest conversation was with a classical music journalist, and that lasted less than 5 minutes...
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YouGov
Jun 17, 2021 10:18:45 GMT
Post by michaelarden on Jun 17, 2021 10:18:45 GMT
Just done a YouGov poll which asked about how I voted in the London Mayor election - the order of candidates given was Bailey, Khan, Porritt, Berry. This seems very strange and could lead to Berry voters accidentally ticking the Bailey box and I suspect an over reporting of the Porrit vote and underreporting of the Berry one. Shouldn't they either be in alphabetical order or order of finishing? Or have they randomised the order per respondent - which seems unneccesary for just 4 names?
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 21, 2021 15:53:50 GMT
REFUK bounce. 'Freedom Day' delay?
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 25, 2021 7:50:57 GMT
Today's RedBox:-
Con 42 (-3) Lab 30 (-1) LD 9 (+3) Green 7 SNP 5 REFUK 4 Oths 2 Plaid 1
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 25, 2021 11:47:44 GMT
Today's RedBox:- Con 42 (-3) Lab 30 (-1) LD 9 (+3) Green 7 SNP 5 REFUK 4 Oths 2 Plaid 1 "Chesham bounce" of about 3% for LD seems to be in all the polls so far. Although not always at the expense of Tories..
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