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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jun 11, 2021 11:57:45 GMT
Something of note, highlighting Labour’s problems:
LAB: 35% (-21) GRN: 27% (+23) CON: 21% (-) LD: 12% (+1) SNP: 3% (-3) REF: 1% (-)
Voting intention amongst 18-24s (+/- since 2019), 9-10 June.
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2021 12:41:34 GMT
Post by justin124 on Jun 11, 2021 12:41:34 GMT
Something of note, highlighting Labour’s problems: LAB: 35% (-21) GRN: 27% (+23) CON: 21% (-) LD: 12% (+1) SNP: 3% (-3) REF: 1% (-) Voting intention amongst 18-24s (+/- since 2019), 9-10 June. Yougov has the Greens at 9% . In a GE I doubt that their national vote would exceed 3% - most would be likely to switch to Labour and push the latter's vote share up to 35%/36%.
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jun 11, 2021 12:47:33 GMT
Something of note, highlighting Labour’s problems: LAB: 35% (-21) GRN: 27% (+23) CON: 21% (-) LD: 12% (+1) SNP: 3% (-3) REF: 1% (-) Voting intention amongst 18-24s (+/- since 2019), 9-10 June. Yougov has the Greens at 9% . In a GE I doubt that their national vote would exceed 3% - most would be likely to switch to Labour and push the latter's vote share up to 35%/36%. Yes, it does. These numbers are from the same poll, however; and are the voting intentions amongst 18-24 year olds. Whilst I agree with you that many would-be Green voters would switch to Labour come a general election, I think the poll highlights one of Labour's major problems, trying to appeal to multiple, disparate voting constituencies at the same time. And, at the moment, they're failing to appeal to any.
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Post by justin124 on Jun 11, 2021 12:54:21 GMT
Yougov has the Greens at 9% . In a GE I doubt that their national vote would exceed 3% - most would be likely to switch to Labour and push the latter's vote share up to 35%/36%. Yes, it does. These numbers are from the same poll, however; and are the voting intentions amongst 18-24s year olds. Whilst I agree with you that many would-be Green voters would switch to Labour come a general election, I think the poll highlights one of Labour's major problems, trying to appeal to multiple, disparate voting constituencies at the same time. And, at the moment, they're failing to appeal to any. That is very fair comment. There does seem to be a House effect re- YouGov, which for some time has been recording the Greens at higher levels than other pollsters. This appears to be mainly at Labour's expense - and has the effect of somewhat exaggerating the Tory lead.
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pl
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Post by pl on Jun 11, 2021 13:16:14 GMT
Yougov has the Greens at 9% . In a GE I doubt that their national vote would exceed 3% - most would be likely to switch to Labour and push the latter's vote share up to 35%/36%. Yes, it does. These numbers are from the same poll, however; and are the voting intentions amongst 18-24s year olds. Whilst I agree with you that many would-be Green voters would switch to Labour come a general election, I think the poll highlights one of Labour's major problems, trying to appeal to multiple, disparate voting constituencies at the same time. And, at the moment, they're failing to appeal to any. The only thing keeping Labour in (more or less) one piece is the electoral system. If it wasn't for FPTP they would have been eclipsed-Liberal Party style by now. Just look across Europe. France, Germany, Poland, Czech Rep etc. The traditional centre-left has been eclipsed. The future for the left seems to be populism/Green/hard-left parties.
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 11, 2021 13:33:47 GMT
Yes, it does. These numbers are from the same poll, however; and are the voting intentions amongst 18-24s year olds. Whilst I agree with you that many would-be Green voters would switch to Labour come a general election, I think the poll highlights one of Labour's major problems, trying to appeal to multiple, disparate voting constituencies at the same time. And, at the moment, they're failing to appeal to any. That is very fair comment. There does seem to be a House effect re- YouGov, which for some time has been recording the Greens at higher levels than other pollsters. This appears to be mainly at Labour's expense - and has the effect of somewhat exaggerating the Tory lead. It is very clear that the Greens have moved up a level - they only managed a couple of polls at 4% before the 2019 General Election and now virtually all their poll ratings are above 4% - many quite considerably so - and none below. And it is reasonably easy to hypothesise why - younger XR supporting voters don't now have a Corbynista Labour party and the Lib Dems are obviously tainted by the coalition. Actually the Greens scored very close to their average poll rating in the 2019 General Election. Obviously if Labour or the Lib Dems can come up with a persuasive offer for them then they might switch and they might concentrate more on the seat arithmetic as a General Election approaches. However the Greens may (this time) maintain their rating in that people - especially the young - may say I don't care about the mechanics of FPTP - I want a large green vote to signal that people are concerned about the Climate Emergency. If the Greens do well in the German elections - perhaps even win - then that will be a further boost. And a very large number are concerned about the Climate Emergency and (softer) green issues - such as stockbrokers in Surrey and not just those that clue themselves to tube trains! Although the Greens will be doing exceptionally well to pick up 2 or 3 parliamentary seats at the next election - it could be a turning point (?again) for them. It is an issue for Labour. It may also be a straw in the wind that Remain/Rejoin is still quite a significant issue. And this is an (even) bigger problem for Labour who *could* see their support on that flank absolutely decimated by the Lib Dems and Greens while the Tories decimate them on the other side of the issue! While it does seem to be a "house effect" of yougov rating the Greens higher (and therefore Labour lower) its not just yougov - but also Opinium (7%), NCP (8%), Find out Now (9%) - with a 14k sample. Conversely Savanta ComRes and RWS give the Tories a lead of 10% and 11% - not far off yougov's 13% - but they also give the Greens the lowest recent rating of any pollster at 5%.
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 11, 2021 13:39:13 GMT
Yes, it does. These numbers are from the same poll, however; and are the voting intentions amongst 18-24s year olds. Whilst I agree with you that many would-be Green voters would switch to Labour come a general election, I think the poll highlights one of Labour's major problems, trying to appeal to multiple, disparate voting constituencies at the same time. And, at the moment, they're failing to appeal to any. The only thing keeping Labour in (more or less) one piece is the electoral system. If it wasn't for FPTP they would have been eclipsed-Liberal Party style by now. Just look across Europe. France, Germany, Poland, Czech Rep etc. The traditional centre-left has been eclipsed. The future for the left seems to be populism/Green/hard-left parties. Arguably Labour would have been dead in the 1980's but for FPTP, replaced by the SDP, which may or may not have merged with the Liberals (probably not)
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2021 13:52:27 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 11, 2021 13:52:27 GMT
That is very fair comment. There does seem to be a House effect re- YouGov, which for some time has been recording the Greens at higher levels than other pollsters. This appears to be mainly at Labour's expense - and has the effect of somewhat exaggerating the Tory lead. It is very clear that the Greens have moved up a level - they only managed a couple of polls at 4% before the 2019 General Election and now virtually all their poll ratings are above 4% - many quite considerably so - and none below. And it is reasonably easy to hypothesise why - younger XR supporting voters don't now have a Corbynista Labour party and the Lib Dems are obviously tainted by the coalition. Actually the Greens scored very close to their average poll rating in the 2019 General Election. Obviously if Labour or the Lib Dems can come up with a persuasive offer for them then they might switch and they might concentrate more on the seat arithmetic as a General Election approaches. However the Greens may (this time) maintain their rating in that people - especially the young - may say I don't care about the mechanics of FPTP - I want a large green vote to signal that people are concerned about the Climate Emergency. If the Greens do well in the German elections - perhaps even win - then that will be a further boost. And a very large number are concerned about the Climate Emergency and (softer) green issues - such as stockbrokers in Surrey and not just those that clue themselves to tube trains! Although the Greens will be doing exceptionally well to pick up 2 or 3 parliamentary seats at the next election - it could be a turning point (?again) for them. It is an issue for Labour. It may also be a straw in the wind that Remain/Rejoin is still quite a significant issue. And this is an (even) bigger problem for Labour who *could* see their support on that flank absolutely decimated by the Lib Dems and Greens while the Tories decimate them on the other side of the issue! While it does seem to be a "house effect" of yougov rating the Greens higher (and therefore Labour lower) its not just yougov - but also Opinium (7%), NCP (8%), Find out Now (9%) - with a 14k sample. Conversely Savanta ComRes and RWS give the Tories a lead of 10% and 11% - not far off yougov's 13% - but they also give the Greens the lowest recent rating of any pollster at 5%. The Greens are certainly doing better than they have for most of the last 6 years but they did have similar poll ratings in the chaos of summer 2019, which fell away rapidly as talk of an election mounted. You do wonder though when the Green candidate in C&A starts attacking the Lib Dem by quoting Guido Fawkes..
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2021 13:57:50 GMT
Post by justin124 on Jun 11, 2021 13:57:50 GMT
Yes, it does. These numbers are from the same poll, however; and are the voting intentions amongst 18-24s year olds. Whilst I agree with you that many would-be Green voters would switch to Labour come a general election, I think the poll highlights one of Labour's major problems, trying to appeal to multiple, disparate voting constituencies at the same time. And, at the moment, they're failing to appeal to any. The only thing keeping Labour in (more or less) one piece is the electoral system. If it wasn't for FPTP they would have been eclipsed-Liberal Party style by now. Just look across Europe. France, Germany, Poland, Czech Rep etc. The traditional centre-left has been eclipsed. The future for the left seems to be populism/Green/hard-left parties. In Germany the SPD were wrong to stay in coalition with Merkel's Centre- Right CDU. As a result , many of its former supporters have switched to the Greens.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jun 11, 2021 14:03:26 GMT
I can see them getting a UKIP 2015 style result, where they get millions of votes but only Caroline Lucas is elected.
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Post by justin124 on Jun 11, 2021 14:08:39 GMT
I can see them getting a UKIP 2015 style result, where they get millions of votes but only Caroline Lucas is elected. Very unlikely I think. Green voters will not want to see a repeat of 2015 when they effectively delivered Cameron's small overall majority.
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2021 14:41:18 GMT
Post by European Lefty on Jun 11, 2021 14:41:18 GMT
Something of note, highlighting Labour’s problems: LAB: 35% (-21) GRN: 27% (+23) CON: 21% (-) LD: 12% (+1) SNP: 3% (-3) REF: 1% (-) Voting intention amongst 18-24s (+/- since 2019), 9-10 June. LOL
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Post by jamie on Jun 11, 2021 14:43:41 GMT
The Greens are polling better than their general election results, and they do disproportionately well with young voters... but sub-samples are still sub-samples.
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2021 14:47:02 GMT
Post by Merseymike on Jun 11, 2021 14:47:02 GMT
The Greens are polling better than their general election results, and they do disproportionately well with young voters... but sub-samples are still sub-samples. True. And its a long time from a likely election. However, the drop in the Labour vote is awful, no matter what the caveats.
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2021 14:48:13 GMT
Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jun 11, 2021 14:48:13 GMT
Something of note, highlighting Labour’s problems: LAB: 35% (-21) GRN: 27% (+23) CON: 21% (-) LD: 12% (+1) SNP: 3% (-3) REF: 1% (-) Voting intention amongst 18-24s (+/- since 2019), 9-10 June. LOL What's so funny?
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2021 14:48:22 GMT
Post by Merseymike on Jun 11, 2021 14:48:22 GMT
I can see them getting a UKIP 2015 style result, where they get millions of votes but only Caroline Lucas is elected. Oh, without some sort of cross-party agreement, undoubtedly.
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Jun 11, 2021 14:50:38 GMT
Post by European Lefty on Jun 11, 2021 14:50:38 GMT
The idea that anyone takes those numbers seriously
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2021 14:59:12 GMT
Post by michael2019 on Jun 11, 2021 14:59:12 GMT
The Greens are certainly doing better than they have for most of the last 6 years but they did have similar poll ratings in the chaos of summer 2019, which fell away rapidly as talk of an election mounted. You do wonder though when the Green candidate in C&A starts attacking the Lib Dem by quoting Guido Fawkes.. Very valid points and thanks for making them. Obviously all parties are tossed around on the sea of events and what the other parties do. The smaller parties such as the Greens (and the Lib Dems) even more so. And as I implied they have had quite a number of "turning points" including getting 15% of the vote way back at the 1989 European Parliamentary Elections - their highest ever in a national election when of course the Lib Dems were licking their wounds post-merger. So it could well be "another" turning point for them that doesn't come to much. At the moment an opportunity has opened up for them in the form of a non-Corbynista Labour party and the post-coalition Lib Dems. It is more than possible that some of that opportunity may close down again - especially if the Lib Dems win C&A. And arguably from a purely tribal point of view a Lib Dem win at C&A might be the worst result for them. But they have some what quietly been doing quite well (for them) for a little while. They had increased their poll ratings *before* the locals - despite zero media coverage. And at the locals, they put in some impressive performances including in some quite surprising places where I suspect they hadn't run a massive campaign. And in many Tory shires people seemed to view them as much an alternative to vote for as the Lib Dems. And they are getting their hooks into quite a few if still smallish even compared to the Lib Dems- number of wards and councils which must prove a good omen for the future in both the short term and the long term. For me their co-leaders are good - youngish and personable and not too stridently green! I actually (may be sadly!) like all the party leaders at the moment - even Richard Tice! But I can see them having greater appeal to 18-40 year-olds than the rather stuffy Starmer, Boris is Boris and Ed doesn't set the world on fire! Now it could all go up in a puff of smoke - Labour begins to connect with this demographic, the Lib Dems might go on a roll and the parliamentary arithmetic works against them... But they have at least a chance to move forward.....
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jun 11, 2021 15:04:07 GMT
The idea that anyone takes those numbers seriously Well, read what you want into them, but if my party (the supposed "opposition") were thirteen points behind one of the most useless, omnishambles governments in modern British history, personally, I'd be more concerned.
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Jun 11, 2021 15:08:09 GMT
Post by European Lefty on Jun 11, 2021 15:08:09 GMT
The idea that anyone takes those numbers seriously Well, read what you want into them, but if my party (the supposed "opposition") were thirteen points behind one of the most useless, omnishambles governments in modern British history, personally, I'd be more concerned. The Labour Party is not behind becaue the Greens have reached nearly 30% with 18-25 year olds, because the Greens are not on nearly 30% with 18-25 year olds
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