Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 10, 2018 20:10:28 GMT
BURY MB, East (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
HAYDOCK, Nicole Paule (Green)
McGILL, Gavin Phillip (Labour)
MINTY, Andy (Liberal Democrats)
RAJA, Sohail (Conservative)
ZWIERZANSKI, Angela (UKIP)
2018: Lab 1673; Con 960; Grn 185
2016: Lab 1566; Con 616; Grn 286
2015: Lab 2748; UKIP 853; Con 762; Grn 220
2014: Lab 1494; UKIP 682; Con 384; Grn 137
2012: Lab 1430; UKIP 566; Con 501
2011: Lab 1589; Con 983; UKIP 433; LD 132
2010: Lab 2103; Con 1294; LD 714; BNP 436
2008: Lab 1148; Con 1023; LD 384
2007: Lab 1216; Con 753; LD 296; Ind 180;
2006: Lab 1259; Con 702; LD 421
2004: Lab 1597, 1582, 1538; Con 1115, 1051, 757; LD 1083; Ind 489, 441
The Conservatives are re-standing their candidate from May, whilst the Lib Dems have a fresh candidate (sorry – couldn’t resist). I’m guessing the UKIP candidate is the wife of the candidate from the recent Besses by-election.
NEATH PORT TALBOT UA, Gwynfi (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
IRWIN, Nicola Hazel Jean (Labour)
JONES, Jane (Independent)
JONES, Katie Nicole (Plaid Cymru)
JOSHUA, David Rhys (Independent)
LOWE, Orla Sarah (Conservative)
PAUL, Jac Owen (Independent)
2017: Lab 273; Ind 214
2012: Lab 502; Ind 153
2008: Ind 390; Lab 288
2004: Ind 424; Lab 313
Jane Jones was the victorious indy in 2004 and 2008 and the runner-up in 2012 and 2017. In the 4 previous elections to this ward there have only been 3 different candidates – Jane Jones beating Colin Day twice and losing to Ralph Thomas twice.
NORTH YORKSHIRE CC, Knaresborough (Con resigned)
Candidates:
CALVERT, Sharon-Theresa (Labour)
GOODE, David Ryland (Liberal Democrat)
IRELAND, Phil (Conservative)
2017: Con 1829, 1676; LD 1645, 1618; Lab 537, 474; Grn 405, 336; UKIP 322
2013: LD 2084, 1861; Con 1219, 1108; UKIP 947, 764; Lab 399, 376; Grn 330
2009: LD 1985, 1659; Con 1765, 1719; Ind 1240; Lab 355
2005: LD 4147, 3911; Con 2398, 2147; Lab 1193
The Lib Dem was their topped placed candidate in 2017. The Conservative was the second Tory in 2013 behind the incumbent who lost his seat. The Indy from 2009 was one of the incumbents elected as a Lib Dem in 2005.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 10, 2018 20:31:18 GMT
BURY MB, East (Lab resigned) Candidates: HAYDOCK, Nicole Paule (Green) McGILL, Gavin Phillip (Labour) MINTY, Andy (Liberal Democrats) RAJA, Sohail (Conservative) ZWIERZANSKI, Angela (UKIP) 2018: Lab 1673; Con 960; Grn 185 2016: Lab 1566; Con 616; Grn 286 2015: Lab 2748; UKIP 853; Con 762; Grn 220 2014: Lab 1494; UKIP 682; Con 384; Grn 137 2012: Lab 1430; UKIP 566; Con 501 2011: Lab 1589; Con 983; UKIP 433; LD 132 2010: Lab 2103; Con 1294; LD 714; BNP 436 2008: Lab 1148; Con 1023; LD 384 2007: Lab 1216; Con 753; LD 296; Ind 180; 2006: Lab 1259; Con 702; LD 421 2004: Lab 1597, 1582, 1538; Con 1115, 1051, 757; LD 1083; Ind 489, 441 The Conservatives are re-standing their candidate from May, whilst the Lib Dems have a fresh candidate (sorry – couldn’t resist). I’m guessing the UKIP candidate is the wife of the candidate from the recent Besses by-election. Presumably he will be spearheading his own campaign and peppering his speeches with extra strong remarks... |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,729
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 10, 2018 20:45:07 GMT
BURY MB, East (Lab resigned) Candidates: HAYDOCK, Nicole Paule (Green) McGILL, Gavin Phillip (Labour) MINTY, Andy (Liberal Democrats) RAJA, Sohail (Conservative) ZWIERZANSKI, Angela (UKIP) 2018: Lab 1673; Con 960; Grn 185 2016: Lab 1566; Con 616; Grn 286 2015: Lab 2748; UKIP 853; Con 762; Grn 220 2014: Lab 1494; UKIP 682; Con 384; Grn 137 2012: Lab 1430; UKIP 566; Con 501 2011: Lab 1589; Con 983; UKIP 433; LD 132 2010: Lab 2103; Con 1294; LD 714; BNP 436 2008: Lab 1148; Con 1023; LD 384 2007: Lab 1216; Con 753; LD 296; Ind 180; 2006: Lab 1259; Con 702; LD 421 2004: Lab 1597, 1582, 1538; Con 1115, 1051, 757; LD 1083; Ind 489, 441 The Conservatives are re-standing their candidate from May, whilst the Lib Dems have a fresh candidate (sorry – couldn’t resist). I’m guessing the UKIP candidate is the wife of the candidate from the recent Besses by-election. Presumably he will be spearheading his own campaign and peppering his speeches with extra strong remarks... |
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 12, 2018 19:49:10 GMT
Unusually interesting contest for the minor places in Bury. The Gwynfi contest might be similarly interesting if anyone knew what the different Indies stand for! ?? Quite a crunch contest for our lot in Knaresborough.
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Post by catking on Aug 14, 2018 21:14:23 GMT
The East campaign has been less lively than the Besses by-election (also in Bury) last month.
I'd say that only the Labour campaign has been a full campaign. The Tories have put out one leaflet, a little bit of canvassing in the middle class bit and not much else. It doesn't really make that much sense as East was a much better prospect than Besses for the Tories and they ran an energetic campaign there that got them a good swing.
I've not seen any leaflets from any of the minor parties. My guess would be Greens and the Lib Dems will fight it out for third place.
Expecting a very comfortable Labour hold but the Tory vote holding up respectably due to their candidate's strength in the Kashmiri areas.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 16, 2018 11:53:18 GMT
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Post by catking on Aug 16, 2018 13:48:51 GMT
An excellent preview of East. Though I would recommend the Trackside over the Clarence as the best pub in the town. |
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 16, 2018 21:28:07 GMT
Not sure I've ever really been in the Trackside, but I do remember what the Clarence was like in its previous incarnation and the present Clarence is a hundred times better.
Bury is counting tonight, incidenrally, in the Elizabethan Suite at the Town Hall:
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 16, 2018 21:44:47 GMT
Gwynfi is definitely counting tonight. Can't be sure about Knaresborough but there is the time delay to think about: when it's eight'o'clock in Leeds, in Knaresborough it's still 1957.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 16, 2018 21:46:52 GMT
Gwynfi is definitely counting tonight. Can't be sure about Knaresborough but there is the time delay to think about: when it's eight'o'clock in Leeds, in Knaresborough it's still 1957. That rumbling you can here is my Harrogate (near enough to Knaresborough) born grandmother leaving her grave to come and haunt you! 😂 |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 16, 2018 21:53:18 GMT
Turnout Bury East 26%, circa 2,200 votes
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,846
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Post by Crimson King on Aug 16, 2018 22:06:46 GMT
Gwynfi is definitely counting tonight. Can't be sure about Knaresborough but there is the time delay to think about: when it's eight'o'clock in Leeds, in Knaresborough it's still 1957. 1957 was a very fine year |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 16, 2018 22:07:00 GMT
There's been a result in Gwynfi, Labour didn't win, and Plaid Cymru were second.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 16, 2018 22:10:14 GMT
NEATH PORT TALBOT Gwynfi
Jane Jones (Independent) 268
Katie Nicole Jones (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 73
Nicola Hazel Jean Irwin (Welsh Labour) 60
David Rhys Joshua (Independent) 45
Jac Owen Paul (Independent) 14
Orla Sarah Lowe (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 4
The turnout was a stonking 51.3% - much the highest I can remember in August.
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,623
Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Aug 16, 2018 22:13:37 GMT
Wow. 4!
Labour having a candidate from Port Talbot didn’t look great beforehand.
The winner was an ex councillor for the ward and the only candidate to live in the ward
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 16, 2018 22:17:19 GMT
BURY East
McGILL, Gavin Phillip (Labour) 1,419
RAJA, Sohail (Conservative) 557
ZWIERZANSKI, Angela (UKIP) 107
HAYDOCK, Nicole Paule (Green) 77
MINTY, Andy (Liberal Democrats) 49
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 16, 2018 22:24:52 GMT
NORTH YORKSHIRE Knaresborough
GOODE, David Ryland (Liberal Democrat) 2,051
IRELAND, Phil (Conservative) 1,313
CALVERT, Sharon-Theresa (Labour) 369
Candidates called Calvert continue the tradition of doing crap in elections in Yorkshire.
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Post by kvasir on Aug 16, 2018 22:35:37 GMT
Not a good result for Labour in Knaresborough at all.
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 16, 2018 22:58:00 GMT
Blimey that's a terrible result for Labour - though not sure it signifies much outside of local politics. There seems to have been some kind of rift in the Labour party in Gwynfi, as the resigning Labour councillor who caused the byelection nominated Independent Joshua. |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 16, 2018 23:04:20 GMT
Bury, East: Labour hold - amended 2014 and 2015 (Labour & Conservative previously wrong way round) | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | | Labour | 1,419 | 64.2% | +4.9% | +0.3% | +4.3% | +8.8% | Conservative | 557 | 25.2% | -8.9% | +0.8% | +8.6% | +11.0% | UKIP | 107 | 4.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -13.8% | -20.4% | Green | 77 | 3.5% | -3.1% | -8.1% | -1.3% | -1.6% | Liberal Democrat | 49 | 2.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 2,209 |
| 78% | 90% | 48% | 82% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 7% since May and ¼% since 2016 but Labour to Conservative ~ 2¼% since 2015 and 1% since 2014 Council now 31 Labour, 17 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat Neath Port Talbot, Gwynfi: Independent gain from Labour| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2012 | since 2008 | | Independent Jones | 268 | 57.8% | +13.8% | +34.4% | +0.2% | Plaid Cymru | 73 | 15.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 60 | 12.9% | -43.1% | -63.7% | -29.5% | Independent Joshua | 45 | 9.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Paul | 14 | 3.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 4 | 0.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 464 |
| 95% | 71% | 68% |
Swing, if particularly meaningful, Labour to Independent Jones 28½% since 2017, 49% since 2012 and 15% since 2008 Council now 41 Labour, 15 Plaid Cymru, 4 Independent, 2 Independent Democrats, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Unaffiliated Independent North Yorkshire, Knaresborough: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | since 2013 "top" | since 2013 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 2,051 | 54.9% | 20.2% | +19.3% | +13.1% | +13.1% | Conservative | 1,313 | 35.2% | -3.4% | -3.1% | +10.7% | +10.5% | Labour | 369 | 9.9% | -1.4% | -1.1% | +1.9% | +1.7% | Green |
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| -8.5% | -8.1% | -6.6% | -7.0% | UKIP |
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| -6.8% | -7.0% | -19.0% | -18.2% | Total votes | 3,733 |
| 79% | 81% | 75% | 79% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 11¾% / 11¼% since 2017 and ~ 1¼% since 2013 Council now 53 Conservative, 8 Independent Group, 4 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent, 1 Yorkshire
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