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Post by froome on Aug 17, 2018 5:42:46 GMT
NEATH PORT TALBOT Gwynfi Jane Jones (Independent) 268 Katie Nicole Jones (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 73 Nicola Hazel Jean Irwin (Welsh Labour) 60 David Rhys Joshua (Independent) 45 Jac Owen Paul (Independent) 14 Orla Sarah Lowe (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 4 The turnout was a stonking 51.3% - much the highest I can remember in August. If so, that must be a very small ward in population terms. Has its electorate reduced significantly? The previous results, apart from the most recent, suggest a larger electorate or even higher turnout. That Conservative vote must be some sort of record surely, for their party at least? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 17, 2018 6:41:51 GMT
NEATH PORT TALBOT Gwynfi Jane Jones (Independent) 268 Katie Nicole Jones (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 73 Nicola Hazel Jean Irwin (Welsh Labour) 60 David Rhys Joshua (Independent) 45 Jac Owen Paul (Independent) 14 Orla Sarah Lowe (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 4 The turnout was a stonking 51.3% - much the highest I can remember in August. If so, that must be a very small ward in population terms. Has its electorate reduced significantly? The previous results, apart from the most recent, suggest a larger electorate or even higher turnout. That Conservative vote must be some sort of record surely, for their party at least? Electorate was 904. Papers issued 464 |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 17, 2018 9:52:47 GMT
Not a good result for Labour in Knaresborough at all. Roughly the same as in the previous two elections. I know that we used to win seats there (though it was a while ago now) but clearly the LibDems scooping up the anti-Tory vote prevented any revival this time round. |
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Post by kvasir on Aug 17, 2018 10:01:47 GMT
Not a good result for Labour in Knaresborough at all. Roughly the same as in the previous two elections. I know that we used to win seats there (though it was a while ago now) but clearly the LibDems scooping up the anti-Tory vote prevented any revival this time round. Indeed. If we want to make any gains in the borough we need to be looking to gain votes in Harrogate, Knaresborough and Ripon. These are the kind of middling to small towns Labour need to be able to make gains in and should be able to. But the Liberals have squeezed our vote so effectively that the Labour voters who were voting Liberal tactically effectively become Liberal voters. If we couldn't make the desired gains during the coalition years I'd suggest we aren't going to be able to make gains as that fades from memory. There are other issues, for example Knaresborough is very old and getting quite wealthy with its location within the Yorkshire triangle of Leeds, York and Harrogate. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 17, 2018 10:08:21 GMT
Roughly the same as in the previous two elections. I know that we used to win seats there (though it was a while ago now) but clearly the LibDems scooping up the anti-Tory vote prevented any revival this time round. Indeed. If we want to make any gains in the borough we need to be looking to gain votes in Harrogate, Knaresborough and Ripon. These are the kind of middling to small towns Labour need to be able to make gains in and should be able to. But the Liberals have squeezed our vote so effectively that the Labour voters who were voting Liberal tactically effectively become Liberal voters. If we couldn't make the desired gains during the coalition years I'd suggest we aren't going to be able to make gains as that fades from memory. There are other issues, for example Knaresborough is very old and getting quite wealthy with its location within the Yorkshire triangle of Leeds, York and Harrogate. If there is any particular significance here I guess it is that Labour did not benefit at all from the lack of Green and UKIP candidates, and the Tories did not benefit as much as you might imagine from the loss of 18% UKIP votes since 2013.
However i think the Lib Dems really targeted this election, and this is the main reason for their big victory
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Post by catking on Aug 17, 2018 10:14:27 GMT
Good result in East. Again shows a big difference between the north and the south of Bury and the current direction of travel there.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 17, 2018 11:09:44 GMT
Bury, East: Labour hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | | Labour | 1,419 | 64.2% | +4.9% | +0.3% | +8.6% | +11.0% | Conservative | 557 | 25.2% | -8.9% | +0.8% | +4.3% | +8.8% | UKIP | 107 | 4.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -13.8% | -20.4% | Green | 77 | 3.5% | -3.1% | -8.1% | -1.3% | -1.6% | Liberal Democrat | 49 | 2.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 2,209 |
| 78% | 90% | 48% | 82% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 7% since May and ¼% since 2016 but Labour to Conservative ~ 2¼% since 2015 and 1% since 2014 Council now 31 Labour, 17 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat Surely it was Tory to Labour swings compared to 2015 and 2014, unless the quoted figures are themselves wrong? |
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Post by catking on Aug 17, 2018 11:43:38 GMT
Bury, East: Labour hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | | Labour | 1,419 | 64.2% | +4.9% | +0.3% | +8.6% | +11.0% | Conservative | 557 | 25.2% | -8.9% | +0.8% | +4.3% | +8.8% | UKIP | 107 | 4.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -13.8% | -20.4% | Green | 77 | 3.5% | -3.1% | -8.1% | -1.3% | -1.6% | Liberal Democrat | 49 | 2.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 2,209 |
| 78% | 90% | 48% | 82% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 7% since May and ¼% since 2016 but Labour to Conservative ~ 2¼% since 2015 and 1% since 2014 Council now 31 Labour, 17 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat Surely it was Tory to Labour swings compared to 2015 and 2014, unless the quoted figures are themselves wrong? The quoted figures are wrong. The Tory vote share in 2015 was 16.6%, increasing to 25.2%. They actually finished third behind UKIP in 2015. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 17, 2018 11:54:31 GMT
NEATH PORT TALBOT Gwynfi Jane Jones (Independent) 268 Katie Nicole Jones (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 73 Nicola Hazel Jean Irwin (Welsh Labour) 60 David Rhys Joshua (Independent) 45 Jac Owen Paul (Independent) 14 Orla Sarah Lowe (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 4 The turnout was a stonking 51.3% - much the highest I can remember in August. What is the highest turnout at a council by election? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 17, 2018 11:58:25 GMT
Roughly the same as in the previous two elections. I know that we used to win seats there (though it was a while ago now) but clearly the LibDems scooping up the anti-Tory vote prevented any revival this time round. Indeed. If we want to make any gains in the borough we need to be looking to gain votes in Harrogate, Knaresborough and Ripon. I think there is at least one Harrogate ward where we poll decently? And it might be worth giving Ripon a go, given our decent GE result in that seat last year. (helped by the still bizarre LibDem absence, of course) |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 17, 2018 12:04:45 GMT
Gwynfi is definitely counting tonight. Can't be sure about Knaresborough but there is the time delay to think about: when it's eight'o'clock in Leeds, in Knaresborough it's still 1957. 1957 was a very fine year Indeed.  |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 17, 2018 12:06:45 GMT
Labour doesn't seem ever to have done well in Harrogate. In 1979 and 1983 Labour had one seat in Bilton, and also won it in most elections up to 1990, but it went Lib Dem in 1991 and doesn't seem to have returned.
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iain
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Post by iain on Aug 17, 2018 12:37:01 GMT
Indeed. If we want to make any gains in the borough we need to be looking to gain votes in Harrogate, Knaresborough and Ripon. I think there is at least one Harrogate ward where we poll decently? And it might be worth giving Ripon a go, given our decent GE result in that seat last year. (helped by the still bizarre LibDem absence, of course) You did poll decently in quite a few seats in the all ups this year, playing quite a major spoiler to us in many seats (to the point where it possibly looked like a deliberate strategy), and came within 42 votes of taking Harrogate Fairfax. |
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Post by kvasir on Aug 17, 2018 12:39:00 GMT
Indeed. If we want to make any gains in the borough we need to be looking to gain votes in Harrogate, Knaresborough and Ripon. I think there is at least one Harrogate ward where we poll decently? And it might be worth giving Ripon a go, given our decent GE result in that seat last year. (helped by the still bizarre LibDem absence, of course) Yes they are currently targetting one seat in Harrogate, Harrogate Fairfax on the district council. They came second in 2018: Lib: 372 Lab: 330 Con: 273 Turnout was 29.62% So lots of work to do. |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 17, 2018 13:18:38 GMT
Bury, East: Labour hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | | Labour | 1,419 | 64.2% | +4.9% | +0.3% | +8.6% | +11.0% | Conservative | 557 | 25.2% | -8.9% | +0.8% | +4.3% | +8.8% | UKIP | 107 | 4.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -13.8% | -20.4% | Green | 77 | 3.5% | -3.1% | -8.1% | -1.3% | -1.6% | Liberal Democrat | 49 | 2.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 2,209 |
| 78% | 90% | 48% | 82% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 7% since May and ¼% since 2016 but Labour to Conservative ~ 2¼% since 2015 and 1% since 2014 Council now 31 Labour, 17 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat Surely it was Tory to Labour swings compared to 2015 and 2014, unless the quoted figures are themselves wrong? Sorry, changes to Labour & Conservative shares were wrong way round in 2014 and 2015, now corrected. Swings for those years were mathematically correct. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 18, 2018 9:27:33 GMT
Even with a caveat about meaningfulness, the Gwynfi result claims a 49 per cent swing since 2012. That must be amongst the highest recorded?
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 18, 2018 9:47:37 GMT
Labour doesn't seem ever to have done well in Harrogate. In 1979 and 1983 Labour had one seat in Bilton, and also won it in most elections up to 1990, but it went Lib Dem in 1991 and doesn't seem to have returned. has Labour ever won council seats in Knaresborough in relatively recent years? I was under the impression that we had but could be wrong Pre 2002, Knaresborough was split into East and West wards. Labour won West in 1986, 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998 And East once in 1990 So last Labour win in Knaresborough was 1998 |
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 20, 2018 23:25:55 GMT
Greg for Bilton.
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