Prediction Competition - August 2018

[Robert Waller]

Bude, Cornwall: Con 18, Lab 5, LD 52, Ind 25
Watton-on-Stone, East Herts: Con 53, Lab 11, LD 36
Halewood South, Knowsley: Con 4, Lab 50, LD 4, Ind 42
Newton Regis and Wharton, North Warwickshire: Con 60, Lab 40
Gotham, Rushcliffe: Con 35, Lab 19, LD 14, Ind 28, Green 4
Bromborough, Wirral: Con 18, Lab 55, LD 8, Green 3, Ind 16

[Deleted]

Bude, Cornwall: Con 20, Lab 10, LD 50, Ind 20
Watton-on-Stone, East Herts: Con 50, Lab 15, LD 25
Halewood South, Knowsley: Con 10, Lab 45, LD 10, Ind 35
Newton Regis and Wharton, North Warwickshire: Con 65, Lab 35
Gotham, Rushcliffe: Con 40, Lab 15, LD 10, Ind 30, Green 5
Bromborough, Wirral: Con 20, Lab 60, LD 5, Green 5, Ind 10

[andrewp]

Cornwall, Bude. Lib Dem 47, Ind 27, Con 19, Lab 7
East Herts, Watton at Stone Con 55, Lib Dem 33: Lab 12
Knowley, Halewood South Lab 65, Ind 23, Lib Dem 8, Con 4
North Warwickshire, Newton Regis and Wharton Con 65 Lab 35
Rushcliffe, Gotham Con 37, Ind 32, Lab 17, Lib Dem 11 Green 3
Wirral, Bromborough Lab 50 Ind 18 Con 18, Lib Dem 9, Green 5

[olympian95]

Cornwall: LD 47, Ind 26, Con 24, Lab 3

East Herts: Con 57, LD 30, Lab 13

Knowsley: Lab 53, Ind 34, LD 8, Con 5

N Warks: Con 61, Lab 39

Rushcliffe: Con 36, Ind 29, Lab 27, LD 5, Green 3

Wirral: Lab 47, Ind 18, Con 16, LD 14, Green 5

[hempie]

Cornwall, Bude: LD 54, Ind 24, Con 17, Lab 5
East Hertfordshire, Watton-on-Stone: Con 56,LD 31,Lab 13
Knowsley, Haleswood South: Lab 50, Ind 40, LD 6, Con 4
North Warwickshire, Newton Regis and Wharton: Con 66, Lab 34
Rushcliffe, Gotham: Con 34, Ind 29, Lab 20, LD 13, Green 4
Wirral, Bromborough: Lab 49, Ind 19,Con 17, LD 10, Green 5

[yellowperil]

Not much point in trying to come back for August- may be back in September, we will see

[Robert Waller]

I certainly hope so.

Very nice to see 'that face' back again!

This competition - and this forum - is much better for your presence.

[thirdchill]

CORNWALL Bude: LD 55, Con 26, Ind 13, Lab 6
EAST HERTFORDSHIRE Watton-at-Stone: Con 48, LD 36, Lab 16
KNOWSLEY Halewood South: Lab 47, Ind 42, Con 6, LD 5
NORTH WARWICKSHIRE Newton Regis and Warton: Con 58, Lab 42
RUSHCLIFFE Gotham: Con 45, Ind 30, Lab 15, LD 7, Green 3
WIRRAL Bromborough: Lab 47, Ind 25, Con 19, LD 7, Green 2

[andrewp]

Aug 23, 2018 9:23:03 GMT Robert Waller said:

I certainly hope so.

Very nice to see 'that face' back again!

This competition - and this forum - is much better for your presence.

I agree- you are a valued contributor.

[Right Leaning]

Whoops is it really Thursday today!!!

So I appreciate I will get penalty points for being late, but here goes anyway:-

Cornwall, Bude: LD 51, Ind 23, C 21, Lab 5
East Hertfordshire, Watton-on-Stone: C 58, LD 24,Lab 18
Knowsley, Haleswood South: Lab 48, Ind 41, C 7, LD 4,
North Warwickshire, Newton Regis and Wharton: C 62, Lab 38
Rushcliffe, Gotham: C 41, Ind 30, Lab 17, LD 8, Gn 4
Wirral, Bromborough: Lab 52, Ind 22, C 15, LD 7, Gn 3

[yorkshireluke]

Cornwall, Bude: LD 52, C 31, Ind 13, Lab 4
East Hertfordshire, Watton-on-Stone: C 50, LD 30, Lab 20
Knowsley, Haleswood South: Lab 41, Ind 35, C 14, LD 10
North Warwickshire, Newton Regis and Wharton: C 62, Lab 38
Rushcliffe, Gotham: C 38, Ind 34, Lab 16, LD 8, Gn 4
Wirral, Bromborough: Lab 62, Ind 22, C 10, LD 4, Gn 2

[middleenglander]

12 entries this week as last with Right Leaning getting 1 addition fault for adding to 99% in Wirral and priceofdown 10 additional faults for adding to 90% in East Hertfordshire. Thirdchill gets 90 additional faults for being over 2 hours late (6 x 5 x 3 for up to 4 hours or part hours late) whilst pomapsinfouk and Right Leaning get 180 additional faults for being over 4 hours late (6 x 5 x 4 + 6 x 10 for over further hours or part hours late)

There is unanimity in that all 6 by-elections are predicted to be holds.
Cornwall, Bude: Liberal Democrat majority from 5% (Europeanlefty over Conservative) to 30% (hempie over Independent & priceofdawn over both Conservative and Independent)
East Hertfordshire, Watton-at-Stone: Conservative majority from 12% (Third Chill over Liberal Democrat) to 59% (robbienicoll over Labour)
Knowsley, Halewood South: Labour majority over Independent from 3% (robbienicoll) to 42% (andrewp & David Boothroyd)
North Warwickshire, Newton Regis & Warton: Conservative share from 58% (Third Chill) to 66% (hempie)
Rushcliffe, Gotham: Conservative majority from 4% (polmapsinfouk over Independent) to 32% (David Boothroyd over Labour)
Wirral, Bromborough: Labour from 20% (Europeanlefty over Independent) to 40% (polmapsinfouk over Independent & priceofdawn over Conservative)

[andrewp]

Aug 23, 2018 19:40:55 GMT middleenglander said:

12 entries this week as last with Right Leaning getting 1 addition fault for adding to 99% in Wirral and priceofdown 10 additional faults for adding to 90% in East Hertfordshire. Thirdchill gets 90 additional faults for being over 2 hours late (6 x 5 x 3 for up to 4 hours or part hours late) whilst pomapsinfouk and Right Leaning get 180 additional faults for being over 4 hours late (6 x 5 x 4 + 6 x 10 for over further hours or part hours late)

There is unanimity in that all 6 by-elections are predicted to be holds.
Cornwall, Bude: Liberal Democrat majority from 5% (Europeanlefty over Conservative) to 30% (hempie over Independent & priceofdawn over both Conservative and Independent)
East Hertfordshire, Watton-at-Stone: Conservative majority from 12% (Third Chill over Liberal Democrat) to 59% (robbienicoll over Labour)
Knowsley, Halewood South: Labour majority over Independent from 3% (robbienicoll) to 42% (andrewp & David Boothroyd)
North Warwickshire, Newton Regis & Warton: Conservative share from 58% (Third Chill) to 66% (hempie)
Rushcliffe, Gotham: Conservative majority from 4% (polmapsinfouk over Independent) to 32% (David Boothroyd over Labour)
Wirral, Bromborough: Labour from 20% (Europeanlefty over Independent) to 40% (polmapsinfouk over Independent & priceofdawn over Conservative)

Interesting unanimity. I think there are feasible  other winners in at least 3 of those 6.

[middleenglander]

For week 4:
- provisional awaiting full result from Cornwall, Bude

Authority	Cornwall	East  Hertfordshire	Knowsley	North  Warwickshire	Rushcliffe	Wirral	Week 4	Week 4
Ward	Bude	Watton-at-Stone	Halewood South	Newton Regis &   Warton	Gotham	Bromborough	faults	position
andrewp	14.1	68.1+10	33.3	25.6	35.5	36.4	223.0	4th
David Boothroyd	30.2	90.1+10	33.3	21.6	29.1	46.4	260.6	6th
europeanlefty	52.2	94.1+10	25.3	25.6	23.5	44.5	275.2	9th
greenrobinhood	26.2	98.1+10	23.3	19.6	33.5	50.4	261.1	7th
hempie	7.7	72.1+10	3.2	27.6	35.5	36.4	192.4	3rd
olympian95	22.1	74.1+10	11.3	17.6	21.9	30.5	187.5	2nd
polmapsinfouk	34.2+30	74.1+10+30	30.5+30	19.6+30	35.5+30	62.8+30	446.7	12th
priceofdawn	16.6	74.1+10+10	22.5	25.6	33.5	40.4	232.6	5th
rickmk	100	100	100	100	100	100	600
Right Leaning	14.2+30	86.1+10+30	11.2+30	19.6+30	28.5+30	45.4+1+30	396.1	11th
robbienicoll	28.2	120.1+10	17.2	19.6	49.5	26.4	270.8	8th
Robert Waller	8.2	62.1+10	7.2	15.6	35.5	38.4	176.9	1st
thirdchill	27.7+15	62.1+10+15	11.2+15	11.6+15	33.0+15	39.0+15	284.5	10th
Yellow Peril	100	100	100	100	100	100	600
Total faults	481.3+75	1,175.1+10+120+75	429.5+75	449.2+75	594.6+75	696.8+1+75	4,407.5

[middleenglander]

For weeks 4 & 5:
- provisional awaiting full result from Cornwall, Bude

Authority	Weeks 1 to 3	Week 4	Weeks 1 to 4	Weeks 1 to 4	Sevenoaks	August	August
Ward	faults	faults	faults	position	Farningham,    Horton Kirby &   South Darenth	faults	position
andrewp	211.4	223.0	434.4	4th
David Boothroyd	388.8	260.6	649.5	11th
europeanlefty	237.7	275.2	512.9	7th
greenrobinhood	233.7	261.1	494.8	6th
hempie	225.5	192.4	418.0	2nd
olympian95	238.0	187.5	425.5	3rd
polmapsinfouk	274.7	446.7	721.3	12th
priceofdawn	305.1	232.6	537.8	9th
rickmk	643.5	600	1,243.5	14th
Right Leaning	228.2	396.1	624.2	10th
robbienicoll	201.2	270.8	472.0	5th
Robert Waller	193.3	176.9	370.3	1st
thirdchill	236.9	284.5	521.4	8th
Yellow Peril	497.2	600	1,097.2	13th
Total faults	4,115.3	4,407.5	8,522.8

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There is just 1 by-election during the last week of August. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 Thursday.

[yellowperil]

I seem to be still piling up the 100 faults a go even though I have indicated my withdrawal! As I have said, I may return in September, still thinking about it. Had I submitted my result for Watton-at-Stone I would have won that one, though even I didn't have it down as a win, thought it would be a near miss, but having failed to submit I still did better than almost half the honourable members , who scored more than the 100!

[middleenglander]

The figures for Cornwall, Bude only make a difference to the second decimal point and hence the roundings. I will not change the posts above but will carry the correct figures through to the final week.

[Robert Waller]

SEVENOAKS DC; Farningham, Horton Kirby & South Darenth

AISHER, Emily Hannah (Labour) 12%
CARROLL, Brian (Conservative) 54%
SHANMUGANATHAN, Krish (Liberal Democrat) 34%

[yorkshireluke]

Gonna indefinitely retire after this month and get some practice.

Sevenoaks, Farningham, Horton Kirby & South Darenth: LD 45, Con 37, Lab 18.

[Deleted]

Farningham, Horton Kirby & South Darenth (Sevenoaks): Con 55 LD 35 Lab 10