Prediction Competition - August 2018

[andrewp]

Aug 10, 2018 16:58:59 GMT middleenglander said:

For weeks 1 and 2:

Authority	Fylde	Kings Lynn &    West Norfolk	Peterborough	Week 1	Week 1	Cornwall	Weeks 1 & 2	Weeks 1 & 2
Ward	Ansdell	Settisham	Orton Longueville	faults	position	Newquay       Treviglas	faults	position
andrewp	6.9	39.3	16.9	63.1	5th	43.5+10	116.6	5th
David Boothroyd	5.1	87.2+10	24.0+10	136.3	13th	51.5+10	197.8	13th
europeanlefty	0.9	37.3	19.6	57.8	3rd=	37.5+10	105.3	3rd
greenrobinhood	4.9	33.3	19.6	57.8	3rd=	43.5+10	111.3	4th
hempie	0.9	42.8	27.4	71.1	7th	43.5+10	124.6	6th
olympian95	10.9	75.2	16.6	102.7	12th	33.5+10	146.2	10th
polmapsinfouk	2.9	39.2	16.6+10	68.7	6th	47.5+10	126.2	7th
priceofdawn	4.9	60.2+1	31.9+3	101.0	11th	40.8+10	151.7	11th
rickmk				300		33.5+10	343.5	14th
Right Leaning	2.9	55.2	20.3	78.3	8th	45.5+10	133.8	8th
robbienicoll	3.1	30.9	8.9	42.9	1st	45.5+10	98.4	1st
Robert Waller	5.1	27.3	20.9	53.3	2nd	41.5+10	104.8	2nd
thirdchill	14.9	51.3	22.9+10	99.1	10th	33.5+10	142.6	9th
Yellow Peril	1.1	71.2	14.9+10	97.2	9th	100	197.2	12th
Total faults	64.4	650.7+10+1	260.4+40+3	1,329.5		640.7+130	2,100.2

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 3 by-elections next week, predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

I hope all is well with Yellow Peril.  Has anyone any news?

Thanks for the analysis middleenglander. Yellow Peril decided to leave the forum after a discussion, I hope he returns.

[hempie]

An early entry this week before hols tomorrow:
Bury, East: Lab 58, Con 25,LD 7, UKIP 6,Green 4
Neath Port Talbot Gwynfi: Lab 38,Ind (Jones) 33,PC 10, Ind (Joshua) 8, Ind (Paul) 7, Con 4
North Yorkshire, Knaresborough: LD 49, Con 42, Lab 9

[yorkshireluke]

Bury, East: Lab 52, Con 28, Grn 12, LD 6, UKIP 2
Neath Port Talbot, Gwynthi: Lab 36, Ind (Jones) 32, PC 12, Ind (Paul) 8, Ind (Josh) 6, Con 6
North Yorkshire, Knaresborough: Con 42, LD 39, Lab 19

[Deleted]

Bury, East: Lab 50, Con 40, Grn 3, LD 5, UKIP 2
Neath Port Talbot, Gwynthi: Lab 35, Ind (Jones) 34, PC 10, Ind (Paul) 10, Ind (Josh) 5, Con 5
North Yorkshire, Knaresborough: Con 45, LD 40, Lab 15

[Deleted]

East (Bury): Lab 55 Con 35 Grn 5 LD 3 UKIP 2
Gwynfi (Neath Port Talbot): Lab 35 Ind (Jones) 30 PC 15 Ind (Paul) 8 Ind (Josh) 7 Con 5
Knaresborough (North Yorkshire): Con 45 LD 42 Lab 13

[greenhert]

Bury MBC, East: Labour 57, Conservative 30, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 4, UKIP 4.
Neath Port Talbot UA, Gwynfi: Labour 37, Independent (Jones) 35, Plaid Cymru 12, Independent (Paul) 6, Independent (Josh) 5, Conservative 5.
North Yorkshire CC, Knaresborough: Conservative 46, Liberal Democrats 43, Labour 11.

[Robert Waller]

Bury, East: Lab 59, Con 30, LD 5, UKIP 3,Green 3
Neath Port Talbot Gwynfi: Lab 27,Ind (Jones) 28, PC 20, Ind (Joshua) 15, Ind (Paul) 5, Con 5
North Yorkshire, Knaresborough: LD 48, Con 42, Lab 10

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BURY East: Lab 46, C 42, GP 5, L Dem 4, UKIP 3
NEATH PORT TALBOT Gwynfi: Lab 37, Ind Jones 27, Ind Joshua 18, C 7, Ind Paul 6, PC 5
NORTH YORKSHIRE Knaresborough: C 50, L Dem 31, Lab 19

[robbienicoll]

East, Bury: Con 31, Lab 55, LD 3, Green 5, UKIP 6
Gwynfi, Neath Port Talbot: Con 2, Lab 31, PC 7, Ind (Jones) 33, Ind (Joshua) 6, Ind (Paul) 21
Knaresborough, North Yorkshire: Con 37, Lab 13, LD 50

[thirdchill]

BURY East: Lab 53, Con 34, LD 5, UKIP 5, Grn 3,
NEATH PORT TALBOT Gwynfi: Ind (Jones) 38, Lab 33, Ind (Joshua) 10, PC 9, Ind (Paul) 7, Con 3
NORTH YORKSHIRE Knaresborough: LD 46, Con 38, Lab 16

[olympian95]

Bury: Lab 56, Con 31, LD 6, UKIP 4, Green 3

Neath: Ind (Jones) 32, Lab 30, PC 15, Ind (Joshua) 11, Ind (Paul) 8, Con 4

N Yorks: LD 49, Con 45, Lab 6

[Right Leaning]

Bury, East: Lab 55, C 34, LD 5, UKIP 4, Gn 2
Neath Port Talbot Gwynfi: Ind (Jones) 32, Lab 28, PC 16, Ind (Joshua) 12, C 7, Ind (Paul) 5,
North Yorkshire, Knaresborough: LD 48, Con 45, Lab 7

[andrewp]

Bury East Lab 53, Con 30, Lib Dem 7, UKIP 6, Green 4
Neath Prt Talbot, Gwynfi. Ind Jones 38, Lab 35, Ind Joshua 9, PC 8, Ind Paul 7, Con 3
North Yorkshire, Knaresborough. Lib Dem 47, Con 42, Lab 11.

[middleenglander]

12 entries this week with nothing again from Yellow Peril and ricmk disappearing after his foray last week. Priceofdawn gets 1 additional fault for adding to 99% in NeathPortTalbot.

Bury, East: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative from 4% (David Boothroyd) to 33% (hempie)
NeathPortTalbot, Gwynfi: 6 Labour hold with andrewp, Olympian95, Right Leaning, robbienichol, Robert Waller & Third Chill Independent Jones gain
North Yorkshire: Knaresborough: 7 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, David Boothroyd, EuropeanLefty, greenrobinhood, polmapsinfo & priceofdawn Conservative hold

[middleenglander]

For week 3:

Authority	Bury	Neath       Port Talbot	North Yorkshire	Week 3	Week 3	Weeks 1 & 2	Weeks 1 - 3	Weeks 1 - 3
Ward	East	Gwynfi	Knaresborough	faults	position	faults	faults	position
andrewp	22.5	56.4	15.9	94.7	5th	116.6	211.4	3rd
David Boothroyd	40.2	83.0+10	47.9+10	191.0	12th	197.8	388.8	12th
europeanlefty	24.2	62.4+10	25.9+10	132.4	9th	105.3	237.7	8th
greenrobinhood	16.2	62.4+10	23.9+10	122.4	8th	111.3	233.7	6th
hempie	12.9	64.4+10	13.7	100.9	6th	124.6	225.5	4th
olympian95	19.1	53.0	19.7	91.8	2nd	146.2	238.0	9th
polmapsinfouk	30.2	66.4+10	31.9+10	148.4	10th	126.2	274.7	10th
priceofdawn	35.1	67.4+10+1	29.9+10	153.4	11th	151.7	305.1	11th
rickmk	100	100	100	300		343.5	643.5	14th
Right Leaning	23.1	51.5	19.7	94.3	3rd	133.8	228.2	5th
robbienicoll	18.5	74.4	9.9	102.7	7th	98.4	201.2	2nd
Robert Waller	15.1	59.5	13.9	88.5	1st	104.8	193.3	1st
thirdchill	23.4	53.0	17.9	94.3	4th	142.6	236.9	7th
Yellow Peril	100	100	100	300		197.2	497.2	13th
Total faults	480.5	953.6+60+1	469.9+50	2,015.0		2,100.2	4,115.3

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 6 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 Thursday.

[andrewp]

There are 4 very unpredictable Independents amongst this weeks 6 elections for the prediction competition!

[Deleted]

Bude (Cornwall): LD 45 Con 40 Ind 8 Lab 7
Watton-at-Stone (East Hertfordshire): Con 70 LD 20 Lab 10
Halewood South (Knowsley): Lab 57 Ind 28 Con 10 LD 5
Newton Regis & Wharton (North Warwickshire): Con 65 Lab 35
Gotham (Rushcliffe): Con 40 Ind 25 Lab 20 LD 10 Grn 5
Bromborough (Wirral): Lab 45 Ind 25 Con 15 LD 10 Grn 5

[robbienicoll]

Bude, Cornwall: Con 28, Lab 4, LD 52, Ind 16
Watton-on-Stone, East Herts: Con 76, Lab 17, LD 7
Halewood South, Knowsley: Con 7, Lab 47, LD 2, Ind 44
Newton Regis and Wharton, North Warwickshire: Con 62, Lab 38
Gotham, Rushcliffe: Con 35, Lab 12, LD 18, Ind 29, Green 6
Bromborough, Wirral: Con 15, Lab 51, LD 18, Green 6, Ind 10

[greenhert]

Cornwall UA, Bude: Liberal Democrats 44, Conservative 27, Independent (Willingham) 24, Labour 5.
East Hertfordshire DC, Watton-at-Stone: Conservative 67, Liberal Democrats 18, Labour 15.
Knowsley MBC, Halewood South: Labour 55,Independent (Swann) 30, Conservative 11, Liberal Democrats 4.
North Warwickshire DC, Newton Regis & Wharton: Conservative 62, Labour 38.
Rushcliffe BC, Gotham: Conservative 38, Independent (Matthews) 30, Labour 17, Liberal Democrats 11, Green 4.
Wirral MBC, Bromborough: Labour 48, Independent (Niblock) 27, Conservative 13, Liberal Democrats 7, Green 5.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CORNWALL Bude: L Dem 49, C 29, Ind 18, Lab 4
EAST HERTFORDSHIRE Watton-at-Stone: C 66, L Dem 22, Lab 12
KNOWSLEY Halewood South: Lab 65, Ind 23, L Dem 7, C 5
NORTH WARWICKSHIRE Newton Regis and Warton: C 63, Lab 37
RUSHCLIFFE Gotham: C 52, Lab 20, Ind 15, L Dem 10, GP 3
WIRRAL Bromborough: Lab 52, Ind 23, C 14, L Dem 8, GP 3