CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,721
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 25, 2018 18:30:35 GMT
Bottom line - a Paisley will be on thw ballot and would win. even if he was an Independent? Yes, I think so. Many in North Antrim think the Old Man was poorly treated by the DUP leadership, and might see this as s pattern. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2018 18:59:32 GMT
even if he was an Independent? Yes, I think so. Many in North Antrim think the Old Man was poorly treated by the DUP leadership, and might see this as s pattern. but this is the old mans son |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,721
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 25, 2018 19:13:04 GMT
Yes, I think so. Many in North Antrim think the Old Man was poorly treated by the DUP leadership, and might see this as s pattern. but this is the old mans son As one who has been raised in Irish Politics (both sides of the border), the name matters. If Lady Eileen supported her son, he would win. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2018 19:59:26 GMT
but this is the old mans son As one who has been raised in Irish Politics (both sides of the border), the name matters. If Lady Eileen supported her son, he would win. tho the old man has passed away I suppose being his son is an automatic endorsement |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 25, 2018 21:02:43 GMT
A non-unionist isn't going to win here, whatever the split. And Paisley winning as an independent, whilst good for chaos, isn't likely to change much in Westminster - Paisley's price has already been established and the government can easily afford it.
Similarly, an Allister victory, whilst very embarrassing for the DUP, would probably not change the underlying calculus under most circumstances.
The threat would be of an UUP victory on a split vote and with tactical Catholic support, because that makes it harder for the DUP to claim that the unionist community back their Brexit stance. But given the history of the seat and how it voted on Brexit, that seems an unlikely outcome.
I would also expect the recall campaign and any subsequent by-election to be used by the opposition parties to talk about the stasis in Holyrood and try to build up an anti-politics wave against the DUP.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2018 21:04:09 GMT
A non-unionist isn't going to win here, whatever the split. And Paisley winning as an independent, whilst good for chaos, isn't likely to change much in Westminster - Paisley's price has already been established and the government can easily afford it. Similarly, an Allister victory, whilst very embarrassing for the DUP, would probably not change the underlying calculus under most circumstances. The threat would be of an UUP victory on a split vote and with tactical Catholic support, because that makes it harder for the DUP to claim that the unionist community back their Brexit stance. But given the history of the seat and how it voted on Brexit, that seems an unlikely outcome. I would also expect the recall campaign and any subsequent by-election to be used by the opposition parties to talk about the stasis in Holyrood and try to build up an anti-politics wave against the DUP. don't you think an independent in North Antrim will come at a higher price |
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Post by therealriga on Jul 25, 2018 21:07:09 GMT
A non-unionist isn't going to win here, whatever the split. And Paisley winning as an independent, whilst good for chaos, isn't likely to change much in Westminster - Paisley's price has already been established and the government can easily afford it. Similarly, an Allister victory, whilst very embarrassing for the DUP, would probably not change the underlying calculus under most circumstances. The threat would be of an UUP victory on a split vote and with tactical Catholic support, because that makes it harder for the DUP to claim that the unionist community back their Brexit stance. But given the history of the seat and how it voted on Brexit, that seems an unlikely outcome. I would also expect the recall campaign and any subsequent by-election to be used by the opposition parties to talk about the stasis in Holyrood and try to build up an anti-politics wave against the DUP. Think you mean Stormont. Only problem there is that the second biggest party is Sinn Fein and they're not blameless for the impasse either. In fact, in many ways it suits them to have it, as they can then portray Northern Ireland as unworkable. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 25, 2018 21:16:17 GMT
Sure, but a) Sinn Fein have the most static electorate and the lowest ceiling and b) attacking Sinn Fein is rarely a bad strategy for a unionist candidate to take.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 26, 2018 13:12:50 GMT
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Post by therealriga on Jul 26, 2018 16:07:37 GMT
Sure, but a) Sinn Fein have the most static electorate and the lowest ceiling and b) attacking Sinn Fein is rarely a bad strategy for a unionist candidate to take. Absolutely true, but Sinn Fein aren't a factor in North Antrim and the IRA have gone away, so they aren't the bogeyman that they once were. That means there is limited mileage for a unionist candidate in attacking them. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 26, 2018 16:19:02 GMT
Sure, but a) Sinn Fein have the most static electorate and the lowest ceiling and b) attacking Sinn Fein is rarely a bad strategy for a unionist candidate to take. Absolutely true, but Sinn Fein aren't a factor in North Antrim and the IRA have gone away, so they aren't the bogeyman that they once were. That means there is limited mileage for a unionist candidate in attacking them. OK, so why is it a problem for candidates to attack the DUP on the stasis at Stormont? Particularly since the most potent attack isn't the stasis per se, it's the fact that MLAs are getting paid for doing pretty much nothing and there is significant unhappiness about it. |
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Post by therealriga on Jul 26, 2018 16:46:36 GMT
Absolutely true, but Sinn Fein aren't a factor in North Antrim and the IRA have gone away, so they aren't the bogeyman that they once were. That means there is limited mileage for a unionist candidate in attacking them. OK, so why is it a problem for candidates to attack the DUP on the stasis at Stormont? Particularly since the most potent attack isn't the stasis per se, it's the fact that MLAs are getting paid for doing pretty much nothing and there is significant unhappiness about it. In principle, it isn't. In practice, parties like the UUP and SDLP have had MLAs getting paid in the same way. A party without MLAs would have a greater claim to the moral high ground. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 1, 2018 5:54:33 GMT
Electoral Office of Northern Ireland "Recall petition 30 July 2018 Please note that, in accordance with the Recall of MPs Act 2015 the number of persons entitled to sign the Petition to Remove the MP for North Antrim, Ian Paisley is 75,478. The number of persons who would need to sign the petition to be successful in accordance with section 14 of the Act is 7,547." www.eoni.org.uk/News/Recall-Petition-Eligible-ElectorateNow that is very interesting indeed I say. 10% of the electorate is 7,547.8 and it is clear that the Electoral Office of Northern Ireland have chosen to round DOWN the number instead of the convention (of 0.5 or higher) to round up, therefore they have set a precedent. Does the actual law state that the number is rounded down or rounded up and if not, I am wondering if there could be some legal battles to come. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 1, 2018 7:11:55 GMT
Electoral Office of Northern Ireland "Recall petition 30 July 2018 Please note that, in accordance with the Recall of MPs Act 2015 the number of persons entitled to sign the Petition to Remove the MP for North Antrim, Ian Paisley is 75,478. The number of persons who would need to sign the petition to be successful in accordance with section 14 of the Act is 7,547." www.eoni.org.uk/News/Recall-Petition-Eligible-ElectorateNow that is very interesting indeed I say. 10% of the electorate is 7,547.8 and it is clear that the Electoral Office of Northern Ireland have chosen to round DOWN the number instead of the convention (of 0.5 or higher) to round up, therefore they have set a precedent. Does the actual law state that the number is rounded down or rounded up and if not, I am wondering if there could be some legal battles to come. very interesting indeed? About 0.8% interesting, I would think. If you want to avoid that legal doubt, collect 7548 signatures. If you can find 7547 signatures but are totally unable to find the 7548th, then it would indeed be interesting. |
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Aug 1, 2018 7:52:24 GMT
Now that is very interesting indeed I say. 10% of the electorate is 7,547.8 and it is clear that the Electoral Office of Northern Ireland have chosen to round DOWN the number instead of the convention (of 0.5 or higher) to round up, therefore they have set a precedent. Does the actual law state that the number is rounded down or rounded up and if not, I am wondering if there could be some legal battles to come. very interesting indeed? About 0.8% interesting, I would think. If you want to avoid that legal doubt, collect 7548 signatures. If you can find 7547 signatures but are totally unable to find the 7548th, then it would indeed be interesting. I would have thought it always should be rounded up. Unless you do, 10% will not have signed. It may only be a fraction under, but it will be less than 10%. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2018 8:46:13 GMT
Oh for the whole thing to collapse over rounding down, not up.
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Aug 1, 2018 9:15:13 GMT
I would have thought it always should be rounded up. Unless you do, 10% will not have signed. It may only be a fraction under, but it will be less than 10%. Indeed. It would be only 9.9989401% which is less than required in the legislation This could be a goldmine for lawyers. |
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Post by MeirionGwril on Aug 3, 2018 8:22:46 GMT
Only 3 places opened in the constituency for people to sign, out of possible 10. Any views on this?
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Aug 3, 2018 8:52:52 GMT
Only 3 places opened in the constituency for people to sign, out of possible 10. Any views on this? Maybe trying to find more that are acceptable to each 'community'? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2018 9:19:54 GMT
Only 3 places opened in the constituency for people to sign, out of possible 10. Any views on this? It is a new process, remember. It's not something a council area can consult on when they're the first to organise it... |
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