North Antrim recall petition, 2018

[Deleted]

Jul 24, 2018 22:35:49 GMT iain said:

Jul 24, 2018 22:30:07 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

There's no point in expecting us to be disinterested on this.

There could be a recall petition which would lead to a by-election in a fairly marginal seat, for a party whose MPs are propping up a minority government. It's basically free heroin for us addicts.

It’s not really a marginal seat

if Paisley does stand as an Ind would he split the DUP vote?

[Khunanup]

Jul 24, 2018 22:43:42 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Jul 24, 2018 22:35:49 GMT iain said:

It’s not really a marginal seat

if Paisley does stand as an Ind would he split the DUP vote?

On name alone, very possibly...

It looks like pretty straight forward corruption by Paisley Jr in terms of accepting holiday expenses then not declaring them before lobbying on behalf of the government who paid for it. I wonder if there might be a criminal referral?

[YL]

Jul 24, 2018 22:35:49 GMT iain said:

Jul 24, 2018 22:30:07 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

There's no point in expecting us to be disinterested on this.

There could be a recall petition which would lead to a by-election in a fairly marginal seat, for a party whose MPs are propping up a minority government. It's basically free heroin for us addicts.

It’s not really a marginal seat

I wouldn't call it marginal at all; indeed in normal circumstances I think it's probably the safest of all the DUP's seats. That's partly down to the Paisley name, but the fundamentals (and the fundamentalists...) are good for them.

Now in the past Labour have lost Blaenau Gwent and the Tories have lost Christchurch, so perhaps the DUP could lose if this does turn into an actual by-election, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

[timmullen1]

Jul 25, 2018 8:07:13 GMT YL said:

Jul 24, 2018 22:35:49 GMT iain said:

It’s not really a marginal seat

I wouldn't call it marginal at all; indeed in normal circumstances I think it's probably the safest of all the DUP's seats. That's partly down to the Paisley name, but the fundamentals (and the fundamentalists...) are good for them.

Now in the past Labour have lost Blaenau Gwent and the Tories have lost Christchurch, so perhaps the DUP could lose if this does turn into an actual by-election, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

The deciding factor may be whether the DUP reinstate Paisley allowing him to run under the Party banner or whether he remains outside the Party and runs as independent. Where are the voters loyalties, to the DUP or to Paisley the individual, and could it create a large enough split in the Unionist vote to allow somebody like the Alliance through the middle.

[Chris from Brum]

Jul 25, 2018 8:37:01 GMT timmullen1 said:

Where are the voters loyalties, to the DUP or to Paisley the individual, and could it create a large enough split in the Unionist vote to allow somebody like the Alliance through the middle.

The combined unionist vote last year was 72.9% (DUP 58.9 + UUP 7.2% + TUV 6.8%).  Nationalists were 21.6% (SF 16.3% + SDLP 5.3%), Alliance had 5.6%.  I'd say it's impregnably unionist one way or the other, much though I might want to see APNI come through the middle.

[timmullen1]

Jul 25, 2018 8:45:51 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Jul 25, 2018 8:37:01 GMT timmullen1 said:

Where are the voters loyalties, to the DUP or to Paisley the individual, and could it create a large enough split in the Unionist vote to allow somebody like the Alliance through the middle.

The combined unionist vote last year was 72.9% (DUP 58.9 + UUP 7.2% + TUV 6.8%).  Nationalists were 21.6% (SF 16.3% + SDLP 5.3%), Alliance had 5.6%.  I'd say it's impregnably unionist one way or the other, much though I might want to see APNI come through the middle.

Belfast East 2005 combined Unionist vote 80.6% (DUP (Peter Robinson) 49.1% + UUP 30.1% + NI Conservatives 1.4%) lost under an ethical cloud in 2010. APNI were starting from a higher base and not saying history would repeat but I suspect the DUP might have just a smidgeon of déja-vu.

[The Bishop]

Jul 25, 2018 8:37:01 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jul 25, 2018 8:07:13 GMT YL said:

I wouldn't call it marginal at all; indeed in normal circumstances I think it's probably the safest of all the DUP's seats. That's partly down to the Paisley name, but the fundamentals (and the fundamentalists...) are good for them.

Now in the past Labour have lost Blaenau Gwent and the Tories have lost Christchurch, so perhaps the DUP could lose if this does turn into an actual by-election, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

The deciding factor may be whether the DUP reinstate Paisley allowing him to run under the Party banner or whether he remains outside the Party and runs as independent. Where are the voters loyalties, to the DUP or to Paisley the individual, and could it create a large enough split in the Unionist vote to allow somebody like the Alliance through the middle.

Or possibly an "independent unionist" candidacy takes off if Paisley Jnr remains the DUP candidate (though who that might be I have absolutely no idea)

[Deleted]

Jul 25, 2018 8:37:01 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jul 25, 2018 8:07:13 GMT YL said:

I wouldn't call it marginal at all; indeed in normal circumstances I think it's probably the safest of all the DUP's seats. That's partly down to the Paisley name, but the fundamentals (and the fundamentalists...) are good for them.

Now in the past Labour have lost Blaenau Gwent and the Tories have lost Christchurch, so perhaps the DUP could lose if this does turn into an actual by-election, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

The deciding factor may be whether the DUP reinstate Paisley allowing him to run under the Party banner or whether he remains outside the Party and runs as independent. Where are the voters loyalties, to the DUP or to Paisley the individual, and could it create a large enough split in the Unionist vote to allow somebody like the Alliance through the middle.

surely Paisley would have to go through the DUPs disciplinary procedure before then and that's not gonna happen?

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Jul 25, 2018 10:55:51 GMT The Bishop said:

Jul 25, 2018 8:37:01 GMT timmullen1 said:

The deciding factor may be whether the DUP reinstate Paisley allowing him to run under the Party banner or whether he remains outside the Party and runs as independent. Where are the voters loyalties, to the DUP or to Paisley the individual, and could it create a large enough split in the Unionist vote to allow somebody like the Alliance through the middle.

Or possibly an "independent unionist" candidacy takes off if Paisley Jnr remains the DUP candidate (though who that might be I have absolutely no idea)

Jim Allister? He could leave the TUV even if it’s only temporary to do so.

[therealriga]

Jul 25, 2018 11:08:14 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Jul 25, 2018 10:55:51 GMT The Bishop said:

Or possibly an "independent unionist" candidacy takes off if Paisley Jnr remains the DUP candidate (though who that might be I have absolutely no idea)

Jim Allister? He could leave the TUV even if it’s only temporary to do so.

No need to. There is no love lost between the TUV and DUP and Allister will relish the chance to build his brand at the DUP's expense. Wouldn't be a surprise if he encouraged his supporters to sign the recall petition. With the seat safely in the unionist camp, Allister will almost certainly be the alternative unionist candidate.

[CatholicLeft]

Jul 25, 2018 9:00:49 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jul 25, 2018 8:45:51 GMT Chris from Brum said:

The combined unionist vote last year was 72.9% (DUP 58.9 + UUP 7.2% + TUV 6.8%).  Nationalists were 21.6% (SF 16.3% + SDLP 5.3%), Alliance had 5.6%.  I'd say it's impregnably unionist one way or the other, much though I might want to see APNI come through the middle.

Belfast East 2005 combined Unionist vote 80.6% (DUP (Peter Robinson) 49.1% + UUP 30.1% + NI Conservatives 1.4%) lost under an ethical cloud in 2010. APNI were starting from a higher base and not saying history would repeat but I suspect the DUP might have just a smidgeon of déja-vu.

Not really the same, as Belfast East has had a strong Alliance vote over the years, not least when Sir Oliver Napier and John Alderdice stood. North Amtrim was never that strong for the Alliance.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Jul 25, 2018 11:13:24 GMT therealriga said:

Jul 25, 2018 11:08:14 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Jim Allister? He could leave the TUV even if it’s only temporary to do so.

No need to. There is no love lost between the TUV and DUP and Allister will relish the chance to build his brand at the DUP's expense. Wouldn't be a surprise if he encouraged his supporters to sign the recall petition. With the seat safely in the unionist camp, Allister will almost certainly be the alternative unionist candidate.

Yeah, he’s not happy. 

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

The Unionist vote in this constituency is 70%+ - even if Paisley was excluded from standing for the DUP and stood as an independent unionist, it is difficult to see any result other than a win for Paisley or the DUP candidate.

[Deleted]

Jul 25, 2018 11:13:24 GMT therealriga said:

Jul 25, 2018 11:08:14 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Jim Allister? He could leave the TUV even if it’s only temporary to do so.

No need to. There is no love lost between the TUV and DUP and Allister will relish the chance to build his brand at the DUP's expense. Wouldn't be a surprise if he encouraged his supporters to sign the recall petition. With the seat safely in the unionist camp, Allister will almost certainly be the alternative unionist candidate.

His name jumped out at me when I looked at the previous result.

[Chris from Brum]

Jul 25, 2018 9:00:49 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jul 25, 2018 8:45:51 GMT Chris from Brum said:

The combined unionist vote last year was 72.9% (DUP 58.9 + UUP 7.2% + TUV 6.8%).  Nationalists were 21.6% (SF 16.3% + SDLP 5.3%), Alliance had 5.6%.  I'd say it's impregnably unionist one way or the other, much though I might want to see APNI come through the middle.

Belfast East 2005 combined Unionist vote 80.6% (DUP (Peter Robinson) 49.1% + UUP 30.1% + NI Conservatives 1.4%) lost under an ethical cloud in 2010. APNI were starting from a higher base and not saying history would repeat but I suspect the DUP might have just a smidgeon of déja-vu.

If anyone's going to "come through the middle" as a result of a split in the unionist vote between DUP/UUP/TUV/any other unionist splinter, it would be SF - but I can't see SDLP standing aside to allow that to happen with a unified nationalist vote.  They're desperate to rebuild their position, so must stand come what may, and will probably throw some resources at it.

[timmullen1]

Jul 25, 2018 11:37:58 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Jul 25, 2018 9:00:49 GMT timmullen1 said:

Belfast East 2005 combined Unionist vote 80.6% (DUP (Peter Robinson) 49.1% + UUP 30.1% + NI Conservatives 1.4%) lost under an ethical cloud in 2010. APNI were starting from a higher base and not saying history would repeat but I suspect the DUP might have just a smidgeon of déja-vu.

If anyone's going to "come through the middle" as a result of a split in the unionist vote between DUP/UUP/TUV/any other unionist splinter, it would be SF - but I can't see SDLP standing aside to allow that to happen with a unified nationalist vote.  They're desperate to rebuild their position, so must stand come what may, and will probably throw some resources at it.

Agreed, and at the end of last week it was the SDLP saying they were prepared to co-ordinate a recall campaign, not the kind of thing you do if you’re then not intending to contest the subsequent by-election.

[Devil Wincarnate]

The lack of real DUP support for Junior makes me wonder if they've found the perfect way to remove the Paisley Cult aspect of the party.

[YL]

Jul 25, 2018 9:00:49 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jul 25, 2018 8:45:51 GMT Chris from Brum said:

The combined unionist vote last year was 72.9% (DUP 58.9 + UUP 7.2% + TUV 6.8%).  Nationalists were 21.6% (SF 16.3% + SDLP 5.3%), Alliance had 5.6%.  I'd say it's impregnably unionist one way or the other, much though I might want to see APNI come through the middle.

Belfast East 2005 combined Unionist vote 80.6% (DUP (Peter Robinson) 49.1% + UUP 30.1% + NI Conservatives 1.4%) lost under an ethical cloud in 2010. APNI were starting from a higher base and not saying history would repeat but I suspect the DUP might have just a smidgeon of déja-vu.

I think it's really quite different from Belfast East. Belfast East is overwhelmingly Protestant, but has a significant moderate vote (which often goes Alliance but can also go UUP when it appears to make tactical sense). North Antrim has a significant Catholic minority which isn't big enough to have a realistic hope of winning the seat, but (as generally outside south and east Belfast and North Down) it's more polarised and its Protestant population is more hardline; indeed this constituency with its Bible Belt image and its history of being the base of both Paisley senior and more recently the TUV probably has the strongest hardline Unionist vote in NI.

To threaten the DUP from the moderate side you'd probably need to unite most of the Catholic vote with what moderate Protestant vote there is, and even then you'd be relying on votes peeling off the DUP in other directions. It might be possible in principle but regrettably I think finding a candidate and campaign to achieve that is most unlikely.

[CatholicLeft]

Jul 25, 2018 17:16:40 GMT YL said:

Jul 25, 2018 9:00:49 GMT timmullen1 said:

Belfast East 2005 combined Unionist vote 80.6% (DUP (Peter Robinson) 49.1% + UUP 30.1% + NI Conservatives 1.4%) lost under an ethical cloud in 2010. APNI were starting from a higher base and not saying history would repeat but I suspect the DUP might have just a smidgeon of déja-vu.

I think it's really quite different from Belfast East. Belfast East is overwhelmingly Protestant, but has a significant moderate vote (which often goes Alliance but can also go UUP when it appears to make tactical sense). North Antrim has a significant Catholic minority which isn't big enough to have a realistic hope of winning the seat, but (as generally outside south and east Belfast and North Down) it's more polarised and its Protestant population is more hardline; indeed this constituency with its Bible Belt image and its history of being the base of both Paisley senior and more recently the TUV probably has the strongest hardline Unionist vote in NI.

To threaten the DUP from the moderate side you'd probably need to unite most of the Catholic vote with what moderate Protestant vote there is, and even then you'd be relying on votes peeling off the DUP in other directions. It might be possible in principle but regrettably I think finding a candidate and campaign to achieve that is most unlikely.

Bottom line - a Paisley will be on thw ballot and would win.

[Deleted]

Jul 25, 2018 18:17:02 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Jul 25, 2018 17:16:40 GMT YL said:

I think it's really quite different from Belfast East. Belfast East is overwhelmingly Protestant, but has a significant moderate vote (which often goes Alliance but can also go UUP when it appears to make tactical sense). North Antrim has a significant Catholic minority which isn't big enough to have a realistic hope of winning the seat, but (as generally outside south and east Belfast and North Down) it's more polarised and its Protestant population is more hardline; indeed this constituency with its Bible Belt image and its history of being the base of both Paisley senior and more recently the TUV probably has the strongest hardline Unionist vote in NI.

To threaten the DUP from the moderate side you'd probably need to unite most of the Catholic vote with what moderate Protestant vote there is, and even then you'd be relying on votes peeling off the DUP in other directions. It might be possible in principle but regrettably I think finding a candidate and campaign to achieve that is most unlikely.

Bottom line - a Paisley will be on thw ballot and would win.

even if he was an Independent?