Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 15, 2015 17:39:19 GMT
Shockingly poor result for the CDU.
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Post by Devonian on Feb 15, 2015 18:06:57 GMT
Graphic showing the exit polls Sibboleth mentioned above with changes from last election  Now that looks to me like a big direct swing from CDU to Afd. |
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Post by bolbridge on Feb 15, 2015 20:06:09 GMT
Fantastic news for the FDP - I'm sure this will help their morale after some really dispiriting recent election results.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 15, 2015 20:34:25 GMT
Quite frankly pathetic by the CDU, who have been going backwards in Hamburg for years now. Good show by the FDP- I wonder if Christian Lindner faces a much harder time getting the federal party back into the Bundestag though.
SPD government again, I imagine. A good showing by them too despite the small loss.
The real winners are the AfD. Although Hamburg does occasionally like a populist party of the Right, it's tough to break through in what is overwhelmingly a left-of-centre city.
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Post by Devonian on Feb 15, 2015 21:45:57 GMT
Final results
SPD 45.7% (-2.7) 58 seats
CDU 16.0% (-5.9) 20 seats
Green 12.2% (+1.0) 15 seats
LINKE 8.5% (+2.1) 11 seats
FPD 7.4% (+0.7) 9 seats
AfD 6.1% (+6.1) 8 seats
Others 4.1% (-1.4) 0 seats
Well done the AfD
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Post by bolbridge on Feb 15, 2015 22:43:29 GMT
Quite frankly pathetic by the CDU, who have been going backwards in Hamburg for years now. Good show by the FDP- I wonder if Christian Lindner faces a much harder time getting the federal party back into the Bundestag though. SPD government again, I imagine. A good showing by them too despite the small loss. The real winners are the AfD. Although Hamburg does occasionally like a populist party of the Right, it's tough to break through in what is overwhelmingly a left-of-centre city. Why have the CDU consistently done so badly in Hamburg for so long? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 15, 2015 22:51:11 GMT
Quite frankly pathetic by the CDU, who have been going backwards in Hamburg for years now. Good show by the FDP- I wonder if Christian Lindner faces a much harder time getting the federal party back into the Bundestag though. SPD government again, I imagine. A good showing by them too despite the small loss. The real winners are the AfD. Although Hamburg does occasionally like a populist party of the Right, it's tough to break through in what is overwhelmingly a left-of-centre city. Why have the CDU consistently done so badly in Hamburg for so long? I would argue that it's the Hanseatic tradition mixed with the pre-war history of the mainstream Right: 1. The Protestant Right pre-war was hugely splintered and Zentrum were regarded as too Catholic and had a pathetically low vote, and Hamburg didn't really like the non-confessional right-wing parties at all (neither the DVP or DNVP got over 20% under Weimar for instance, and the DDP had a strong following). 2. The Hanseatic culture lives on, with a strong sense of collectivism tempered heavily by the need to let people do business. Arguably the SPD spoke to these values, and entrenched itself quickly and never lost the position. 3. There is another possible factor- parts of the North still regard the CDU as a creature of the Rhineland and Swabia. Whilst this has died off a lot, it might well be that in Hamburg this sense remains. The CDU's success in Hamburg in recent times looks ever more like a blip, but these results are dreadful. That's my theory, but I would defer to iainbhx on these things. |
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 16, 2015 9:15:04 GMT
Bad result for CDU down to 16%. AFD set to enter the first Western state parliament and the FDP keep their seats, so Liberalism is not dead in Germany. Hamburg has always been ok for the FDP mainly for "reasons" that date back to the founding of the CDU. Devilwincarnate has pretty much nailed it, there is a certain amount of distrust of the Union in Hamburg which is overcome at the Federal level but not so much at the local level. The increasingly diverse nature of Hamburg also benefits the SPD, who tend to retain such votes well. However, it should be noted that the SPD vote dropped as well, although not as badly as the already poor CDU vote and that goes back to the Von Beustshambles. Weinberg is also a bit crap, expect the Lange Messer to be out. |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 16, 2015 13:49:25 GMT
Think about it, though - under FPTP this would be akin to Liverpool or Manchester
And the SPD votes lost may well have gone to Die Linke and the Greens with AfD largely getting those CDU votes. Its an overwhelmingly left wing electorate
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Feb 17, 2015 0:40:53 GMT
I had an interesting conversation with a colleague about Germany. He recounted talking to an elderley resident of North Rhine-Westphalia. He was moaning that the British established the province in the first place. He ranted that the Rhinelanders were always hard-working and industrious but those from Westphalia were all layabouts and scroungers.
Does anyone know the back story to this?
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,786
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Post by john07 on Feb 17, 2015 0:44:05 GMT
Think about it, though - under FPTP this would be akin to Liverpool or Manchester And the SPD votes lost may well have gone to Die Linke and the Greens with AfD largely getting those CDU votes. Its an overwhelmingly left wing electorate Go to a St Pauli home match and you will get a flavour of it. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 17, 2015 0:53:06 GMT
In my experience Hamburg is the only place in Germany where the average person is happy to speak English.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 17, 2015 6:57:32 GMT
Think about it, though - under FPTP this would be akin to Liverpool or Manchester And the SPD votes lost may well have gone to Die Linke and the Greens with AfD largely getting those CDU votes. Its an overwhelmingly left wing electorate Go to a St Pauli home match and you will get a flavour of it. Although the Sankt Pauli counterculture thing reeks of marketing scam...more on that when I get a chance to write it up. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 17, 2015 7:00:51 GMT
Think about it, though - under FPTP this would be akin to Liverpool or Manchester And the SPD votes lost may well have gone to Die Linke and the Greens with AfD largely getting those CDU votes. Its an overwhelmingly left wing electorate Broadly,but the Hamburg SDP traditionally doesn't have much of a hard left faction for the reasons I set out earlier- and Hamburg does like a hard-right non-confessional alternative every so often. But broadly yes,Liverpool or Manchester would be the best fit. Well,the tightly drawn Manchester City Council anyway. |
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 17, 2015 7:09:45 GMT
Think about it, though - under FPTP this would be akin to Liverpool or Manchester And the SPD votes lost may well have gone to Die Linke and the Greens with AfD largely getting those CDU votes. Its an overwhelmingly left wing electorate I'm afraid you are wrong. at the federal level there are competitive seats in Hamburg and Hamburg Nord is CDU now. If FPTP was used as opposed to the current strange system, there would be reliable CDU wards. Considerable parts of the electorate vote SPD but are not left wing. If you want reliably left wing look at Berlin. Hamburg is very much a business city, but one that feels the SPD govern better. |
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 17, 2015 7:12:51 GMT
In my experience Hamburg is the only place in Germany where the average person is happy to speak English. My experience I trying to get the under 40's not to speak English is difficult any where but Bayern. Luckily as I have a Ruhrpott accent, some people don't twig and just think I'm a bit slow. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 17, 2015 7:28:40 GMT
In my experience Hamburg is the only place in Germany where the average person is happy to speak English. My experience I trying to get the under 40's not to speak English is difficult any where but Bayern. Luckily as I have a Ruhrpott accent, some people don't twig and just think I'm a bit slow. My accent is not as good as it should be, and I've been asked if I'm a Volga German before. Although apparently I sound more accurately a bit Auslandsdeutsch and a bit Swabian. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 17, 2015 7:36:31 GMT
I had an interesting conversation with a colleague about Germany. He recounted talking to an elderley resident of North Rhine-Westphalia. He was moaning that the British established the province in the first place. He ranted that the Rhinelanders were always hard-working and industrious but those from Westphalia were all layabouts and scroungers. Does anyone know the back story to this? They did previously have a very separate existence, even when corralled under Prussia. Westphalia leaned towards Hanover and was regarded by the Rhinelanders as Protestant as a result, even though it primarily was not- although some of Westphalia's towns, such as Bielefeld, had been aligned with the Hansa. Westphalians regarded Rhinelanders as smug Catholic bourgeois types ruled by bishops with temporal power, which was not entirely wrong. I must admit though, I've never heard it expressed the way your colleague heard, and I'll have to do some digging. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 17, 2015 10:15:34 GMT
My experience I trying to get the under 40's not to speak English is difficult any where but Bayern. Luckily as I have a Ruhrpott accent, some people don't twig and just think I'm a bit slow. My accent is not as good as it should be, and I've been asked if I'm a Volga German before. Although apparently I sound more accurately a bit Auslandsdeutsch and a bit Swabian. It could be worse. I was accused of being from Alsace. By a Basque manager of a bar in Reims. |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 17, 2015 10:40:21 GMT
Think about it, though - under FPTP this would be akin to Liverpool or Manchester And the SPD votes lost may well have gone to Die Linke and the Greens with AfD largely getting those CDU votes. Its an overwhelmingly left wing electorate I'm afraid you are wrong. at the federal level there are competitive seats in Hamburg and Hamburg Nord is CDU now. If FPTP was used as opposed to the current strange system, there would be reliable CDU wards. Considerable parts of the electorate vote SPD but are not left wing. If you want reliably left wing look at Berlin. Hamburg is very much a business city, but one that feels the SPD govern better. Exactly the same could be said about Manchester and Liverpool city councils. They are both led from the right of the party and have very strong pro-business profiles |
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