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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2024 17:49:18 GMT
When are the Battenberg state elections?  Last year! (Although the cake is not named for the town but for the family who came from it, their roots are in Battenberg in northern Hessen. Disappointingly it has never chosen a FDP-Die Linke local administration). I think Louis Mountbatten was originally Louis von Battenberg? |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 22, 2024 17:49:24 GMT
When are the Battenberg state elections? The 12th of March-zipan. I'm looking at the figures for two key constituencies which will decide whether 4, 5 or 6 parties make it into the legislature. The BVB/FW are only running third in Barnim-II and although they could overtake the SPD for second place I can't see them catching the AfD. Their list vote is under 3% so I think we can rule them out. Meanwhile in Postdam-I, with more than half the votes in the Greens are over 1,000 (or more than 5%) behind the SPD. Statewide they're only on 3.7% of the second vote so unless the remaining quarter or so of ballot papers are especially strong for them, they're gone too and we're looking at a red-black two-party coalition. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 22, 2024 18:09:28 GMT
German TV coverage has caught up to the terrible Green numbers now, but is also reporting the BSW is doing even better than the exit poll projected so SPD might have to go into a coalition with them because with the CDU they won't have the numbers. At the latter's election HQ the mood's gone from "oh well, we'd rather govern the ecologists than communists" to "great, we might not need the tree-huggers after all" to "argh, we're gonna end up in opposition" in the space of two hours.
When it comes to negotiations, that ideological equation would still be less complicated than the constellations which Saxony and Thuringia produced earlier this month, mind.
And just for the LOLz, Die Linke are on 2.9% and the FDP are on 0.8% - in both cases even worse than in those other two states.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 22, 2024 18:34:00 GMT
Greens on 4.6 per cent now. It's a direct mandate or bust now.
Edit: current projection has SPD and CDU on exactly 44 of the 88 seats...
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Post by mrpastelito on Sept 22, 2024 18:44:39 GMT
It's going to be SPD/BSW, with the Greens out and AfD getting a blocking minority of 30/88 seats.
All in all, a pretty satisfying outcome.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 22, 2024 18:49:30 GMT
Even the 4.6% projection looks optimistic, and a direct mandate yet more so. In raw vote terms, the FW are about 1,600 votes behind the AfD in Barnim whilst the Greens are now trailing the SPD by about 3,000 in central Potsdam, so by that "maximum banter" metric the Greens were even further away from making it in than the (other) BVB.
Ironically that constituency is the one seat where the Green share held steady this time, in an area they won in 2019 - but the SPD share went up through a mix of Linke collapse and CDU tactical votes.
The Left are actually going to finish above 5% on first votes, probably because the BSW didn't put up any direct candidates. But of course, under the German system, that means nothing if you're not competitive in any single-member districts. Clearly those two parties are fishing in the same genepool even if they don't get on due to the way the BSW was formed.
Will be interesting to see if the BSW are still going in 5 years when they'll presumably have constituency-level organisation and what effect that has on where their type of voter goes.
Looks like turnout was fairly strong across the board, only falling below 59% in Uckermark on the Polish border and hitting close to 80% (!) in other places.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 22, 2024 18:53:47 GMT
It's going to be SPD/BSW, with the Greens out and AfD getting a blocking minority of 30/88 seats. Yes, the initial projections seemed far too confident that the AfD would remain below the blocking minority threshold when analysts really should've noticed the numbers were always tight enough that 30 seats was very much a possibility. The geographical split of the state seems to be SPD ahead almost everywhere around Berlin, plus generally in the west and then only in the two other urban centres of Cottbus and Frankfurt on the Oder, with the AfD in the lead everywhere else. And even in that latter pair of cities, the AfD won two of the three direct mandates but were behind on the list vote, again because they and the BSW appeal to similar sorts of voters. Marked difference in the CDU vote: 15.8% on the constituency vote (not concentrated in any particular area though, so pointless) but just 11.9% on the list vote - could explain some of the exit polls which had them neck and neck with the BSW? Clearly a lot of switchers between those two parties as well. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 22, 2024 19:00:05 GMT
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Post by mrpastelito on Sept 22, 2024 19:05:05 GMT
3784 out of 3925 counts completed after 3 hours. A remarkably smooth operation, especially compared to Berlin. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 22, 2024 19:13:12 GMT
3784 out of 3925 counts completed after 3 hours. A remarkably smooth operation, especially compared to Berlin. Talk about a low bar to clear! |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Sept 22, 2024 19:14:21 GMT
Potsdam I is done and the Greens are out.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 22, 2024 19:16:46 GMT
And not even close in the end. SPD majority 3,487 or 7.9%.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 22, 2024 19:33:25 GMT
Potsdam I is done and the Greens are out. The home seat of...Annalena Baerbock. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 22, 2024 19:47:36 GMT
Minister-President Dietmar Woidke actually lost in his own constituency of Spree-Neiße I by all of seven votes against Steffen Kubitzki of the AfD. He'll still get in on the list, of course.
Both main candidates over 40% there in a proper old-fashioned ding-dong. The AfD were notably over 10% ahead of the SPD on the list vote there so there's certainly a leadership/incumbent bounce in play.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 22, 2024 20:21:17 GMT
And not even close in the end. SPD majority 3,487 or 7.9%. To complete the "max bantz" figures: the FW/BVB were only 929 votes behind the AfD in Barnim-II in the end, so much closer to keeping their Landtag representation than the Greens were. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 22, 2024 21:40:46 GMT
The Greens and the FDP failed to win 5% between them, in both the constituency and list vote sections.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 22, 2024 22:25:14 GMT
The FDP in fact finished 10th on the list vote, behind not only the Animal Protection Party but also regionalists Plus Brandenburg.
One other curious single-member constituency result came in Teltow-Fläming II, where there was no AfD candidate and a local non-party mayor was effectively their proxy who thus finished second to the SPD. He alone counts for three quarters of votes for independent candidates at this election.
The Spiegel website, usually reliable, seems unable to handle this and incorrectly lists the CDU candidate (who finished third) as the distant runner-up.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 23, 2024 10:38:35 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2024 17:26:24 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2024 21:31:03 GMT
An epiLogue to Thuringia: ComParison of 1st- & 2nd-vote in constituencies with or without a BSW-candidate:  It's not really possible to avoid the thought, that lots of people, who opted for BSW on the partyList, elected CDU-candidates! I had already done the same with Saxony, where BSW ran more candidates. In Brandenburg it's impossible - because they nominated none. (No surprise: In the region, where they will soonly get 1/3 of ministries, they have presently not more than 80 partyMembers!) |
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