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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2016 19:09:13 GMT
Interesting thing is those who stood by Merkle over Asylum seekers seem to have retained their seats and those of her party who jumped on the anti immigrant bandwagon lost out, I quite like that Hopefully for CDU that's not the lesson they will draw from this. Loyalty and honesty is respected by the Electorate? Seems a good lesson to be learned. |
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 14, 2016 21:17:04 GMT
Interesting thing is those who stood by Merkle over Asylum seekers seem to have retained their seats and those of her party who jumped on the anti immigrant bandwagon lost out, I quite like that Hopefully for CDU that's not the lesson they will draw from this. You think they'd do better by transforming themselves into an anti-immigrant party? |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2016 21:20:01 GMT
Six constituencies in the Altmark and the Harz were lost by default - since AfD had no direct seat candidates there.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2016 22:04:51 GMT
Hopefully for CDU that's not the lesson they will draw from this. You think they'd do better by transforming themselves into an anti-immigrant party? Its not an either or (pro-immigration/anti-immigration). Refugee policy, low skilled labour migration and attracting experts are different areas and its about getting the balance right (for a Conservative party with Christian roots). On the federal level I think they would be better off advocating a fairly restrictive refugee policy which turn down spontaneous asylum seekers, but accept a share of people from vulnerable groups in the camps (gays, single women, disabled, Christians, Yazidis etc.) + a program to help refugees in the conflict regions in Africa/Middle East to signal a will to do something for the refugees (be humanitarian in accordance with Christian Democratic principles). Ideally refugees shouldn't be immigrants and refugee policy should be about providing temporary shelter and safety to people until they can be repatriated, so a policy that prevented citizenship and permanent residency to refugees, but offered temporary asylum, could work. CSU is closer to a sensible refugee policy for a Conservative party than CDU under Merkel, and in the end they will be punished if they do not move closer to their sister party. The problems associated with large groups of young Arab, Afghan and African males from cultures with a completely different view of women (and gays, Jews etc.) + aggressive North African street kids etc. aren't going away, so voters will become more frustrated even if the stream of migrants slow down. Keeping the numbers down and starting repatriation whenever possible is important - and Germany is a country that has the leverage to affect (at least some of) the migrant producing countries - so they should start throwing their weight around (so to speak). |
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 14, 2016 22:12:07 GMT
You think they'd do better by transforming themselves into an anti-immigrant party? Its not an either or (pro-immigration/anti-immigration). Refugee policy, low skilled labour migration and attracting experts are different areas and its about getting the balance right (for a Conservative party with Christian roots). On the federal level I think they would be better off advocating a fairly restrictive refugee policy which turn down spontaneous asylum seekers, but accept a share of people from vulnerable groups in the camps (gays, single women, disabled, Christians, Yazidis etc.) + a program to help refugees in the conflict regions in Africa/Middle East to signal a will to do something for the refugees (be humanitarian in accordance with Christian Democratic principles). Ideally refugees shouldn't be immigrants and refugee policy should be about providing temporary shelter and safety to people until they can be repatriated, so a policy that prevented citizenship and permanent residency to refugees, but offered temporary asylum, could work. CSU is closer to a sensible refugee policy for a Conservative party than CDU under Merkel, and in the end they will be punished if they do not move closer to their sister party. The problems associated with large groups of young Arab, Afghan and African males from cultures with a completely different view of women (and gays, Jews etc.) + aggressive North African street kids etc. aren't going away, so voters will become more frustrated even if the stream of migrants slow down. Keeping the numbers down and starting repatriation whenever possible is important - and Germany is a country that has the leverage to affect (at least some of) the migrant producing countries - so they should start throwing their weight around (so to speak). The problem with your ideal is that it only works if the problems causing people to become refugees are short-term (and right now, there's no reason to believe that the problems in any of the main countries of origin will be resolved in the next few years). There are refugee camps in Jordan housing Palestinian refugees who have been there for decades, but who are denied any opportunity to normalise their status. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 16, 2016 0:16:59 GMT
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2016 0:56:08 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 17, 2016 8:52:49 GMT
So there's a pretty clear North South divide in terms of AfD support, much more so than there appears to be in terms of support for parties on the left. Is there any one particular explanation for this - demographics or personalities?
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 17, 2016 10:32:03 GMT
Hopefully for CDU that's not the lesson they will draw from this. You think they'd do better by transforming themselves into an anti-immigrant party? Yes |
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Post by A Brown on Mar 17, 2016 11:54:30 GMT
You think they'd do better by transforming themselves into an anti-immigrant party? Yes Seems to be working for the CSU in Bavaria although I don't expect any real change from Merkel. Long term the AfD is probably a larger overall threat to the SPD in certain areas, especially the eastern Laender. |
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Post by hedgehog on Mar 17, 2016 13:49:36 GMT
Is there anything that we Greens can learn from Herr Kretschuman, seems like the rise of the AfD, has overshadowed the Green result in Badden Wurtenburg and seems remarkably different from Green results in the other two lander.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2016 14:40:37 GMT
Is there anything that we Greens can learn from Herr Kretschuman, seems like the rise of the AfD, has overshadowed the Green result in Badden Wurtenburg and seems remarkably different from Green results in the other two lander. I do wonder which party he'd be in in Britain. |
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Post by hedgehog on Mar 17, 2016 16:31:50 GMT
Is there anything that we Greens can learn from Herr Kretschuman, seems like the rise of the AfD, has overshadowed the Green result in Badden Wurtenburg and seems remarkably different from Green results in the other two lander. I do wonder which party he'd be in in Britain. Is it the best Green vote in a regional parliament, it has been suggested that he's a Conservative in Green clothing, big business friendly, anti tax increases, but how does his program differ from the rest of the German Green party and how effective has he been at getting Green policy implemented. |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 17, 2016 16:56:44 GMT
Is there anything that we Greens can learn from Herr Kretschuman, seems like the rise of the AfD, has overshadowed the Green result in Badden Wurtenburg and seems remarkably different from Green results in the other two lander. I do wonder which party he'd be in in Britain. Not the Greens. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2016 17:08:46 GMT
So there's a pretty clear North South divide in terms of AfD support, much more so than there appears to be in terms of support for parties on the left. Is there any one particular explanation for this - demographics or personalities? The south of the state under the DDR was a weird and terrifying dystopian landscape, the home of the massive East German chemicals industry which collapsed after Reunification (although there's still a tiny little bit left) for the usual reasons and nothing has come along to fill the inevitable void. Although it is safe to breathe now and maybe even to drink the water. Area has been prone to protest voting since its had the chance to vote; Bitterfeld (once 'the most polluted town in Europe') gave the DVU (who make AfD look like lefties) its highest percentage in the state back in 1998 and did so for the AfD as well. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2016 17:13:50 GMT
So there's a pretty clear North South divide in terms of AfD support, much more so than there appears to be in terms of support for parties on the left. Is there any one particular explanation for this - demographics or personalities? The south of the state under the DDR was a weird and terrifying dystopian landscape, the home of the massive East German chemicals industry which collapsed after Reunification (although there's still a tiny little bit left) for the usual reasons and nothing has come along to fill the inevitable void. Although it is safe to breathe now and maybe even to drink the water. Area has been prone to protest voting since its had the chance to vote; Bitterfeld (once 'the most polluted town in Europe') gave the DVU (who make AfD look like lefties) its highest percentage in the state back in 1998 and did so for the AfD as well. Very symbolic name. |
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Mar 17, 2016 17:31:19 GMT
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2016 19:04:41 GMT
He runs a fairly boring middle of the road administration and so has picked up usual SPD voters as the BEAT THE CDU option and usual CDU voters because a lot of them in that part of the world are boring moderates themselves (which is another reason why the strongly Right-ish campaign they ran this time was clearly an error).
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 17, 2016 19:34:03 GMT
There appears to be a bit of a AfDbounce. GMS zur Bundestagswahl • CDU/CSU 36 %, SPD 21 %, AfD 14 %, GRÜ 10 %, LIN 8 %, FDP 7 %, Son 4 %
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 18, 2016 8:10:43 GMT
He runs a fairly boring middle of the road administration Sign me up,sounds good! |
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