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Post by iainbhx on Mar 13, 2016 21:24:02 GMT
AfD will probably win 12-14 Direct Mandates in Sachsen-Anhalt.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 13, 2016 21:59:20 GMT
This is fantastic. can't wait to see the maps
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 13, 2016 22:04:47 GMT
Rheinland-Pfalz • Vorläufiges Ergebnis: SPD 36,2% (39 Sitze), CDU 31,8% (35), AfD 12,6% (14), FDP 6,2 % (7), GRÜ 5,3% (6), LINKE 2,8% FW 2,3%, PIR 0,8% ALFA 0,6% NPD 0,5%, ödp 0,4%, REP 0,2% Turnout 70,2 %
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 13, 2016 22:26:34 GMT
Sounds like you're falling for all the 'fa-right' labels that I see even the Telegraph throws about now. Remember that this party sits with the UK Conservatives in the European parliament. They're a moderate Eurosceptic and Conservative party
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 13, 2016 22:31:24 GMT
I'm not sure moderate Euroscepticism and conservatism were what the voters of Sachsen-Anhalt were particularly attracted by.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 13, 2016 22:38:45 GMT
Baden-Württemberg • Vorläufiges Ergebnis: GRÜNE 30,3% (47 Sitze), CDU 27,0% (42), AfD 15,1% (23), SPD 12,7% (19), FDP 8,3% (12), LINKE 2,9%, ALFA 1,0%, ÖDP 0,7%, NPD 0,4%, PIRATEN 0,4%, Tierschutz 0,3% REP 0,3%, PARTEI 0,3%, Sonst. 0,2% - Turnout 70,4 % For some context, B-W also saw the last time a right-of-CDU party took over 10% (10.9% for the Republikaner in 1992). That this is nearly 50% again in the same Land is an incredible achievement. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 13, 2016 22:41:02 GMT
Sounds like you're falling for all the 'fa-right' labels that I see even the Telegraph throws about now. Remember that this party sits with the UK Conservatives in the European parliament. They're a moderate Eurosceptic and Conservative party It's now the standard narrative for anything right of CDU/CSU, despite being utter bollocks. This is a huge achievement. It is extremely hard for a newer party to get into a Landtag. |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 13, 2016 22:42:43 GMT
Baden-Württemberg • Vorläufiges Ergebnis: GRÜNE 30,3% (47 Sitze), CDU 27,0% (42), AfD 15,1% (23), SPD 12,7% (19), FDP 8,3% (12), LINKE 2,9%, ALFA 1,0%, ÖDP 0,7%, NPD 0,4%, PIRATEN 0,4%, Tierschutz 0,3% REP 0,3%, PARTEI 0,3%, Sonst. 0,2% - Turnout 70,4 % For some context, B-W also saw the last time a right-of-CDU party took over 10% (10.9% for the Republikaner in 1992). That this is nearly 50% again in the same Land is an incredible achievement. Wait until you see Saschen-Anhalt, one box to declare in Halle I still. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 13, 2016 22:49:38 GMT
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Yorkie
Yorkshire Party
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Post by Yorkie on Mar 13, 2016 22:52:41 GMT
Sounds like you're falling for all the 'fa-right' labels that I see even the Telegraph throws about now. Remember that this party sits with the UK Conservatives in the European parliament. They're a moderate Eurosceptic and Conservative party I believe the ECR has asked the two remaining AfD MEPs to leave its group, following Lucke's lot splitting off and the remaining AfD getting very cosy with the Freedom Party in Austria. |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 13, 2016 22:53:23 GMT
- In S-A, the Afd took 14 direct mandates, Die Linke just one, which is a surprise. AfD seats include Magdeburg I, 15 now, they can't lose Halle I. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 13, 2016 22:58:23 GMT
I note in passing that Julia Kloeckner (sometimes talked about as a possible successor to Merkel) was the 1995 German Wine Queen.
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 13, 2016 23:05:51 GMT
Sachsen-Anhalt • Vorläufiges Ergebnis: CDU 29,8% (30 Sitze), AfD 24,2% (25), Linke 16,3% (16), SPD 10,6% (11), GRÜ 5,2% (5), FDP 4,9% FW 2,2% NPD 1,9% TierParty 1,5% TierAll 1,0% ALFA 0,8% Die Partei 0,5% 1% Sonstige. Turnout 61,1%
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
Member is Online
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Post by Khunanup on Mar 13, 2016 23:06:31 GMT
Sounds like you're falling for all the 'fa-right' labels that I see even the Telegraph throws about now. Remember that this party sits with the UK Conservatives in the European parliament. They're a moderate Eurosceptic and Conservative party I believe the ECR has asked the two remaining AfD MEPs to leave its group, following Lucke's lot splitting off and the remaining AfD getting very cosy with the Freedom Party in Austria. Presumably the 'shoot illegal immigrants' at the border statement from one of their leaders hasn't helped either. Whatever AfD might have been it would increasingly appear that they are drifting ever rightwards, on their way past the position occupied by UKIP in this country for example. I suppose by being successful they are sucking in more unsavoury far right elements who see a chance for influence. They may be able to stem the tide but I wouldn't bet on it. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 13, 2016 23:21:19 GMT
I note in passing that Julia Kloeckner (sometimes talked about as a possible successor to Merkel) was the 1995 German Wine Queen. Kloeckner is...a little too keen. But she fits the profile of a CDU leader better than Merkel, as she's a Catholic from the Palatinate. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Mar 14, 2016 2:04:45 GMT
The FDP only narrowly failed to make it back into the Landtag in Saxony-Anhalt. The map of there at Der Spiegel shows that the southern part of the state was stronger for the AfD, with the CDU generally remaining steady in the north. The SPD lost its only direct seat in Eisleben as it slipped from first place to fourth, rather like the Lib Dems in Norwich South last May. Die Linke managed to lose both of theirs from 2011 to the AfD as well, but randomly gained Köthen from the CDU with a majority of 55 votes.
As pathetic as the Green showing was there, the black-red coalition will need to add them to the executive and keep a cordon sanitaire around the two extremes. A left-leaning coalition like the one in neighbouring Thuringia would not even be close to commanding a majority. NPD support predictably collapsed.
The Greens came mighty close to falling out of the Landtag altogether in Rhineland-Palatinate, which would've put a big dampener on their historic win nextdoor. The FDP returned somewhat more comfortably, as expected according to the polls. Rather boringly compared to the other two states, all the FPTP seats went to the main two parties, as per usual. The map indicates that there is a stretch in the middle of the state where the SPD appears universally popular. Outside if that it generally follows the pattern of CDU strength in rural areas and SPD wins in more built-up zones.
Dreyer now has the choice between a three-way 'traffic light' coalition with a majority of 1 seat, or a GroKo. There is already talk of preferring the former arrangement despite its inherent instability.
The Linke vote was all over the place in BaWü. It tended to go down to below 2% in the countryside, but up to over 6% in the cities. Somehow – probably due to turnout differential – the averaged out to still below 3% , a tiny increase on 5 years ago and still far from representation. The last SPD stronghold of Mannheim North fell not to the top 2 parties, but instead to the AfD, but with a winning share of the vote of just 23%. Eat your heart out, Belfast South! Pforzheim also went right-populist, having been the seat that short-lived former CDU PM Stefan Mappus represented. It is also the only town in the Land about whose aesthetics my aunt was not complimentary when she lived in the Enzkreis.
The Greens look marginally stronger in the two western Bezirke, but their raw vote numbers went up pretty much everywhere. They now hold 46 constituency seats, an increase of 35, to just 22 for the CDU, down from 50 last time. They overturned a CDU majority of nearly 18,700 in Sigmaringen on a ~17% swing, whilst in the university town of Tübingen, which had a Green majority of only 21 votes in 2011, they won by a whopping 13,866 this time out.
The Green Party's success was undoubtedly as much down to the popularity of their conservative-in-a-green-tie leader Kretschmann as to the overall brand. Reports suggest he could nevertheless be ousted by a CDU-led coalition with the SPD and FDP, which for those parties would likely not be looked upon favourably be the electorate next time. As in RP, it would also only have a majority of one. On the other hand, if either of the two Green-led constellations comes to pass, grandpa Winfried might well step down before 2021, and leave his party in a bit of a succession pickle (all his potential replacements are either largely unknown or seen as too radical).
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Mar 14, 2016 9:13:13 GMT
The most recent federal opinion poll (conducted at the start of March) says CDU/CSU 35%, SPD 24%, Die Linke 10%, Grune 10%, FDP 5%, AfD 11% and Others 5% (CDU/CSU lead of 11%) which is only a 2% swing to the SPD. I realise that Germany uses a form of PR to elect it's Parliament but surely that result would still produce a CDU/CSU lead?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2016 11:36:33 GMT
The most recent federal opinion poll (conducted at the start of March) says CDU/CSU 35%, SPD 24%, Die Linke 10%, Grüne 10%, FDP 5%, AfD 11% and Others 5% (CDU/CSU lead of 11%) which is only a 2% swing to the SPD. I realise that Germany uses a form of PR to elect it's Parliament but surely that result would still produce a CDU/CSU lead? Yes, but the big picture depends on two other factors: Whether FDP are in or out + whether Linke remain toxic. Centre-left/left 44% Centre-right 40% Right wing populists 11% Others 5% If Die Linke were normalized and FDP fall below the threshold that is essentially a tie (44-46). Eastern German Greens being descended from B90, and Die Linke from SED + radicals in some of their Western chapters makes it hard to include Linke, but Germany needs an alternative to Grand Coalitions, which will just eat away of the combined vote of the Big Two. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2016 18:57:16 GMT
Interesting thing is those who stood by Merkle over Asylum seekers seem to have retained their seats and those of her party who jumped on the anti immigrant bandwagon lost out, I quite like that
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2016 19:06:11 GMT
Interesting thing is those who stood by Merkle over Asylum seekers seem to have retained their seats and those of her party who jumped on the anti immigrant bandwagon lost out, I quite like that Hopefully for CDU that's not the lesson they will draw from this. |
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