Georgian elections

[Georg Ebner]

The parliamentary election happened today:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Georgian_parliamentary_election

They will nearly not have any threshold (1%), meaning a horribly fragmented parliament will await.
Saakashvili returned recently, what should help G.Dream.

[Georg Ebner]

An ExitPoll was published:

agenda.ge/en/news/2020/3417

The results will be released by the Electoral Commission in some hours.

[Georg Ebner]

Counting was completed these minutes:

results.cec.gov.ge/#/en-us/election_43/dashboard

[Georg Ebner]

GD won outright 14/30 FPTP-seats. In the remaining 16 they came everywhere (less 1 const. in Tblisi) first and will be challenged in 11 seats by UNM, in the capital also by others: twice by "EuropeanGeorgia", once by "G.LabourP.", "Girchi", "Citizens" respectively.

[Georg Ebner]

Remarkabel, that despite the new electoral system it remained a 1.5-order: GD at 1/2, UNM at 1/4, the rest far behind (parties with 3% and less).

[Georg Ebner]

30 FPTP-seats:

Overall majorities:


Duels:

[Georg Ebner]

PES-observer "GeorgianDream" is once again weakest in the cities:

[Georg Ebner]

"Georgian Dream" (PES-observer):

"Stength is in unity" (UNM [EPP-observer] & allies):

"European Georgia" (EPP-observer):

"LeloDM" ("lib.", "centr."):

"Strategy Aghmashenebeli"/"New Georgia" (exUNM):

"All. Partiots G./APG" ("rightwing pop.", proRussia, "christdem."):

"Girchi" ("libertarian", anarcho-capitalism):

"Citizens":

"Georgian Labour P." (socialdem., proEuropean):

[Georg Ebner]

The TurnOut in the RunOffs is down to 26.29% (-30%).
After being kneeled by the ambassador of the EU (joined by that of the USA) UNM decided - yesterday - to participate and go into parliament.
GD's 48% was roughly in line with the ExitPolls, so despite several IrRegularities the first round was generally not rigged.

[Georg Ebner]

GD received in all 17 seats ~90%.
Meaning, that they will own 90/150 (=60%) MPs in parliament.

[Georg Ebner]

After having recently received relative majorities in all councils less 5 (mainly in the NW [Mingrelia&Svanetia]) in the mayoral RunOffs yesterDay GD won 19/20 (Zalendschicha in the NW being the exception).
What will not increase the interest of the opposition to participate.

[Georg Ebner]

To friends of heraldics i can strongly recommend having a look at the municipalities' mostly wonderful flags & CoatOfArms.

[Georg Ebner]

CouncilElections, %:

drive.google.com/drive/folders/1ymSqljm7BCMMDVPdibvHluRfgLAKD6H2?usp=sharing

[Georg Ebner]

I added to the results of the proportional CouncilSeats those of the mayoral elections:

drive.google.com/drive/folders/1YoGR9nop2ilc1Y4nVlMUBAnEXN7IC9WY?usp=sharing

[Georg Ebner]

[matureleft]

Next Georgian election on 26 October.

[iain]

The Georgian election will be held this Saturday. It will be held under party list PR with a 5% threshold and a small winner's bonus (all parties other than the winner have their seat numbers rounded down to the nearest integer - so if you were entitled to 5.8 seats you would get 5 - with the remainder going to the first-placed party). Opposition groups have been raising the alarm (though this is a bit of a boy-who-cried-wolf situation) over possible vote-rigging, and it's currently up in the air whether the government will outright rig the election or, more likely, merely rely on Orbán-esque tilting of the electoral playing field towards themselves.

Brief overview of the parties (an excellent and more comprehensive overview can be found here: oc-media.org/features/whos-who-in-georgias-parliamentary-elections/)

Georgian Dream: The current ruling party started life as a collection of mostly liberal forces in opposition to the UNM then-government, but the more liberal elements have steadily flaked off, leaving behind a socially very conservative and increasingly pro-Russian party, led by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. They lean a little more to the left economically than the opposition, but this isn't their main selling point. Their campaign has been focused on selling themselves as the only party who can guarantee peace for Georgia, with a side-dose of anti-LGBT rhetoric and more and more explicit threats against both opposition parties (who they want to ban) and now the electorate (an affiliated group calling in recent days to identify and imprison opposition voters). It has been speculated that they wanted to be able to offer progress on the country's territorial integrity, hence the ever more supine attitude to Moscow, but haven't been able to present anything concrete.

Unity: The UNM-led coalition is still based around the personality of Mikheil Saakashvili (now ailing and imprisoned). The UNM government was initially very successful, driving forward the economy and cutting corruption; hugely reducing the size of the state. They lost a lot of popularity as their term went on, becoming much more authoritarian and corrupt themselves, and being held responsible for the Russian invasion in 2008. They remain very unpopular today with the broader electorate, which has helped to sustain Georgian Dream in power.

Coalition for Change: A coalition of small parties from the UNM genepool, often with a libertarian bent, both economically and socially. The UNM's infighting and toxicity has encouraged a number of splinters who have competed with each other due to trivial policy differences and personal power dynamics. They are now running together, and should at least do well in Tbilisi.

Strong Georgia: Another coalition, this one drawing more from the Georgian Dream genepool, so leaning a little more socially conservative and economically left than the Coalition for Change (though these differences shouldn't be exaggerated). Again it isn't totally clear why these parties are joining a coalition rather than simply merging, but even that I suppose is some level of progress. Again, they should do fairly well in Tbilisi.

For Georgia: Former Georgian Dream PM, Giorgi Gakharia resigned from Georgian Dream in 2021 in protest at the arrest of then-UNM leader Nika Melia (now part of Coalition for Change) by the government. His new platform aims to win over Georgian Dream voters who are still sceptical of the main opposition. He had talks to join the Strong Georgia coalition, but these fell apart just before the registration deadline.

NPC-Girchi: Girchi was a libertarian split from UNM, who themselves split in two in 2016. The other part (Girchi-More Freedom!) are a part of Coalition for Change, while NPC-Girchi have become much closer to the government, working with them on a number of issues such as removing gender quotas. They would likely prefer a continuation of Georgian Dream rule rather than Opposition government at this point.

Labour: The personal vehicle of Shalva Natelashvili, and supposedly the standard bearer of the Georgian left. They are considered by many as a bit of a joke bunch of Stalin-groupies, and will probably fall back out of Parliament.

Alliance of Patriots: A coalition between ultra-conservatives and alt-right street thugs. They are outright pro-Russian and anti-Western (whereas Georgian Dream still pretend to want to join the EU), and want to hold the government's feet to the flames from the right.



Three pollsters have provided us with data points, which are displayed in the table below (all polls taken between the middle of September and first week of October). Edison, have polled multiple times, showing a stable picture, and have a good record. Savanta are new to polling in Georgia. GORBI are an uncritical government mouthpiece and shouldn't be taken too seriously - if the election is outright rigged then this is probably where results will end up.

	Georgian Dream	Unity	Coalition for Change	Strong Georgia	For Georgia	NPC-Girchi	Labour	APG	Other
Edison	33%	19%	13%	12%	11%	4%	4%	3%	1%
Savanta	36%	14%	18%	8%	10%	3%	2%	3%	6%
GORBI	60%	14%	10%	5%	4%	3%	-	3%	3%

Lastly, here is a 'who should I vote for?' quiz which can be put through google translate geocompass.ge/ka/

[iain]

All 3 pollsters have released final (I assume) polls ahead of the election. The long and the short of it is no change:

Edison:
Georgian Dream - 34% (+1%)
Unity - 18% (-1%)
Coalition for Change - 14% (+1%)
For Georgia - 11% (-)
Strong Georgia - 10% (-2%)
Labour - 5% (+1%)
NPC-Girchi - 4% (-)
APG - 3% (-)

Savanta:
Georgian Dream - 35% (-1%)
Coalition for Change - 19% (+1%)
Unity - 14% (-)
Strong Georgia - 9% (+1%)
For Georgia - 8% (-2%)
NPC-Girchi - 3% (-)
APC - 3% (-)
Labour - 2% (-)

GORBI:
Georgian Dream - 60% (-)
Unity - 15% (+1%)
Coalition for Change - 9% (-1%)
Strong Georgia - 3% (-2%)
For Georgia - 3% (-1%)
NPC-Girchi - 3% (-)
Labour - 2% (+2%)
APG - 2% (-)

[iain]

Oh dear:

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Oct 26, 2024 9:28:34 GMT iain said:

Oh dear:

Georgian politicians will never change!