Turkish general election 2018

[Davıd Boothroyd]

It's obviously now a tradition to call snap elections on 18 April, but this year it's Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has gone for it. Snap parliamentary and presidential election in Turkey on 24 June.

[Lord Twaddleford]

An "electoral type event"?

[Merseymike]

Shouldn't "election" be in inverted commas?

[Deleted]

Apr 18, 2018 16:20:44 GMT @boogieeck said:

Should we not have a poll on this thread ? I think I vote Erdo but I would like to hear the arguments to the contrary

While her poll numbers have stalled a bit and she was behind Abdullah Gül in a February poll his main challenger will likely be the the former university professor and MHP politician Meral Aksener (61) who is late October launched the Good Party (İyi Parti) with the slogan "Turkey will be good" (not a joke..) and a bright sun as its logo.

She promises to unite the nation, fight for political pluralism, the rule of law, freedom of speech and patriotic values and put an end to corruption. The party also wants to heal Turkey's relations with EU and NATO and end what they call "the Middle Easternization of Turkish foreign policy" and replace it with a "balanced, trusted, stable, solution-oriented and multi-faceted foreign policy with respect for international law" and focus on NATO, EU-membership, and Turkish influence in the Balkans (she is of Turko-Bosniak descent, her parents migrated from Macedonia and the party is filled with Balkan diaspora), Central Asia and Caucasus rather than the Middle East.

Aksener and her supporters were in 2016 expelled from MHP by party owner Devlet Bahceli, who later helped Erdogan win the referendum that shifted Turkey from a parliamentary to an executive presidential system, but her new Conservative party has overtaken MHP.



I would think most Western right wingers would prefer Aksener to Erdogan. 

[swanarcadian]

Apr 18, 2018 16:20:44 GMT @boogieeck said:

Should we not have a poll on this thread ?

I'd like to oblige, but we don't know who the candidates will be yet.  It might make sense to have separate threads for the presidential and parliamentary elections, so we can have a poll for each one.

[beastofbedfordshire]

The Islamist goat fucker will win it again comfortably.

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 18, 2018 16:35:09 GMT @vintris said:

Apr 18, 2018 16:20:44 GMT @boogieeck said:

Should we not have a poll on this thread ? I think I vote Erdo but I would like to hear the arguments to the contrary

While her poll numbers have stalled a bit and she was behind Abdullah Gül in a February poll his main challenger will likely be the the former university professor and MHP politician Meral Aksener (61) who is late October launched the Good Party (İyi Parti) with the slogan "Turkey will be good" (not a joke..) and a bright sun as its logo.

She promises to unite the nation, fight for political pluralism, the rule of law, freedom of speech and patriotic values and put an end to corruption. The party also wants to heal Turkey's relations with EU and NATO and end what they call "the Middle Easternization of Turkish foreign policy" and replace it with a "balanced, trusted, stable, solution-oriented and multi-faceted foreign policy with respect for international law" and focus on NATO, EU-membership, and Turkish influence in the Balkans (she is of Turko-Bosniak descent, her parents migrated from Macedonia and the party is filled with Balkan diaspora), Central Asia and Caucasus rather than the Middle East.

Aksener and her supporters were in 2016 expelled from MHP by party owner Devlet Bahceli, who later helped Erdogan win the referendum that shifted Turkey from a parliamentary to an executive presidential system, but her new Conservative party has overtaken MHP.



I would think most Western right wingers would prefer Aksener to Erdogan. 

Oh the Grey Wolves - you should have said.

[Deleted]

Apr 18, 2018 17:11:23 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Oh the Grey Wolves - you should have said.

No, the Grey Wolves and their ilk are still in MHP. MHP was fairly broad tent and the Good Party is based on their moderate/Conservative wing + a lot of independents.

[mazuz]

Apr 18, 2018 16:20:44 GMT @boogieeck said:

Should we not have a poll on this thread ? I think I vote Erdo but I would like to hear the arguments to the contrary

If you want Turkey's descent into dictatorship to continue unabated then I guess that's the right choice for you; but to those who still want to live in a democracy with free press and an independent judiciary, voting for the strongest opposition party possible would be the best option.

[Merseymike]

Both Putin and Erdogan while being clearly popular, organise their society in such a way to make it unlikely that any opposition could win even if they had the support to do so

[mondialito]

Apr 18, 2018 18:00:45 GMT Merseymike said:

Both Putin and Erdogan while being clearly popular, organise their society in such a way to make it unlikely that any opposition could win even if they had the support to do so

This is thing, even without all the anti-pluralist measures, Putin and Orban would probably still have won their 'elections' and the same will probably be the case here.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 18, 2018 16:20:44 GMT @boogieeck said:

Should we not have a poll on this thread ? I think I vote Erdo but I would like to hear the arguments to the contrary

Change this to "I think I will vote Erdo but I will continue to live in Germany anyway" and you've got a widespread electoral strategy!

[Deleted]

I wish tyranny on no nation and so am naturally against Erdogan. I’d prefer any opposition party committed to freedom and secularism to win personally. Ataturk for all his faults was a great politician and I hope that Turkey does not abandon his legacy completely.

[myth11]

lib dems got 26816 votes in nov 2015 elections

[mazuz]

Apr 18, 2018 17:44:23 GMT @boogieeck said:

And therein lies the dilemma. In a democracy, the winner has to be permitted to win. Now in Russia, that is Putin. In China, it is the party. In Turkey, I think it is Erdo.

This means absolutely nothing and seems to serve as a legitimation for the suppression of fundamental rights. In Turkey, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and freedom of press have been infringed upon so much by AK that the playing field is so skewed in favor of AK that it becomes exceedingly difficult for the opposition to win, and democrats would argue that this renders any AK win less legitimate. This is what political scientists call a "competitive authoritarian regime": elections still matter, rigging on e-day might be limited, but there is no level playing field before e-day and the opposition cannot realistically win. This is not to say that AK aren't really popular: they are. But would they be in a genuinely democratic context, in which the opposition still enjoyed the rights opposition parties do in truly democratic countries? We don't know. The same goes for the other contexts you mention. It is rather bizarre to argue that the Communist Party in China have been legitimately and democratically elected.

[Deleted]

Meral Akşener says she is running in the presidential elections with 100,000 signatures backing her candidacy.

(there are two ways to get on the ballot, either having support from 20 deputies from established parties or being backed by 100,000 voters).

She also says the IYI Party is eligible to be on the ballot claiming they fulfill all requirements. 

The electoral law states that in order to run in the parliamentary elections, a party is required to hold its first congress at least six months ahead of the elections and needs to have established provincial branches in at least half of the country's 81 provinces, or have a group in Parliament.

"We have completed our first ordinary congress on Dec. 10. Our 68 provincial and related district branches have been established accordingly. If you count from that date, the IYI Party is ready to participate the elections as of June 10. I urge everyone to watch their step on this issue. IYI Party is the most ready party to participate in the elections," Akşener said.

www.dailysabah.com/elections/2018/04/18/aksener-vows-to-run-in-presidential-elections-says-iyi-party-will-be-on-ballot

Calling the election so early was intended to block IYI from running, so they probably won't  get ballot access, but Erdogan cannot block Akşener from running for president without unleashing riots (invalidating her signatures is not something her supporters are likely to accept), and I think they will prefer to avoid that. 

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 18, 2018 20:08:26 GMT mazuz said:

Apr 18, 2018 17:44:23 GMT @boogieeck said:

And therein lies the dilemma. In a democracy, the winner has to be permitted to win. Now in Russia, that is Putin. In China, it is the party. In Turkey, I think it is Erdo.

This means absolutely nothing and seems to serve as a legitimation for the suppression of fundamental rights. In Turkey, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and freedom of press have been infringed upon so much by AK that the playing field is so skewed in favor of AK that it becomes exceedingly difficult for the opposition to win, and democrats would argue that this renders any AK win less legitimate. This is what political scientists call a "competitive authoritarian regime": elections still matter, rigging on e-day might be limited, but there is no level playing field before e-day and the opposition cannot realistically win. This is not to say that AK aren't really popular: they are. But would they be in a genuinely democratic context, in which the opposition still enjoyed the rights opposition parties do in truly democratic countries? We don't know. The same goes for the other contexts you mention. It is rather bizarre to argue that the Communist Party in China have been legitimately and democratically elected.

Obviously you know this yourself given your location, but the point is worth making that, for all our concern over Russia and our elections, Erodgan is the one who is genuinely seeking to interfere in Western votes.

[Deleted]

Back in February AKP and MHP formed the People's Alliance and a couple of minor right wing parties (incl. the BBP) are likely to join them.

Note that: "In alliances where there are more than two political parties, a party could prepare a joint list of lawmakers with one political party while preparing a separate list of lawmakers with other. For example, if an alliance is formed between the AKP, the MHP and the religious nationalist Grand Unity Party (BBP), the AKP could prepare a joint list with the BBP while the MHP could enter the alliance with its own list."

www.hurriyetdailynews.com/akp-mhp-to-press-button-for-peoples-alliance-127628

[myth11]

Before 2002 the army and the courts would block AKP style parties but west wanted Turkey to be truly democratic country so it stopped doing this but no one looked at Turkey,s demographics which are screaming AKP style parties are going to do well.

[Deleted]

CHP have nominated the MP Muharrem İnce as their presidential candidate. He turns 54 today, so a birthday present of sorts. 

He is a former President of Atatürkist Thought Association and on the nationalist wing of CHP (which nowadays also includes progressives with no affinity for traditional Kemalism).