Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998 
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Post by Tom on Apr 20, 2018 13:25:47 GMT
It's clear that the Tory vote in Scotland has been holding up very well since the General Election.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 20, 2018 13:35:07 GMT
Highland Result Con 1907 46.7% SNP 1466 35.9% Taylor 280 6.9% Lab 239 5.8% Green 104 2.5% Lib Dem 78 1.9% Baykal 12 0.3% Obviously a good result for the Tories - a bit disappointing for SNP - not bad for Labour. Rather suggests that some tactical votes formerly given to SNP have gone back home! Hmm Conservative vote is down by just 20 since last May and SNP by just 83 on a slightly lower turn out. Not sure there's much sign of tactical votes returning anywhere. Labour who didn't stand last May probably took more votes from the indy, lds and greens than from the snp. |
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Post by justin124 on Apr 20, 2018 13:44:43 GMT
Obviously a good result for the Tories - a bit disappointing for SNP - not bad for Labour. Rather suggests that some tactical votes formerly given to SNP have gone back home! Hmm Conservative vote is down by just 20 since last May and SNP by just 83 on a slightly lower turn out. Not sure there's much sign of tactical votes returning anywhere. Labour who didn't stand last May probably took more votes from the indy, lds and greens than from the snp. The Labour vote is higher than back in 2012 - albeit on a higher turnout. I suspect that in this type of seat quite a few Labour voters supported the SNP at that time on a tactical basis to keep out the Tories. Nowadays Labour voters are at least as likely to vote tactically against the SNP. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 20, 2018 13:52:56 GMT
Transfers. Quota was 2,044.
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Stage 6
John Cameron DUFF C 1,907 + 1 1,908 +15 1,923 + 7 1,930 + 47 1,977 +107 2,084
John KELLAS SNP 1,466 + 1 1,467 + 5 1,472 + 37 1,509 + 85 1,594 +118 1,712
Avril TAYLOR Ind 280 + 6 286 +13 299 + 26 325 + 66 391 -391 -
Jayne RAMAGE Lab 239 + 1 240 +16 256 + 24 280 -280 - -
Mary MCDOUGALL SGP 104 + 2 106 +12 118 -118 - - -
Chris RENNIE L Dem 78 78 -78 - - - -
Denise BAYKAL Ind 12 -12 - - - - -
Non-transferable + 1 1 +17 18 + 24 42 + 82 124 +166 290
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Apr 20, 2018 14:49:01 GMT
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Post by justin124 on Apr 20, 2018 15:44:10 GMT
My point was that Labour performed better than in 2012 - over 2 years before the Independence Referendum.This has never been good territory for Labour in any absolute sense. |
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Post by justin124 on Apr 20, 2018 15:49:29 GMT
Highland Result Con 1907 46.7% SNP 1466 35.9% Taylor 280 6.9% Lab 239 5.8% Green 104 2.5% Lib Dem 78 1.9% Baykal 12 0.3% What a cracking result for the Conservatives! We're up, and not only are the SNP down by 1%, but the Greens are also down by more than 1% too. And that matters because this area forms part of the highly marginal Perth & North Perthshire constituency (which the SNP won by just 21 votes last year over the Conservatives). This result and the result in Perth City South last year confirms that we're still very competitive here and have a fantastic chance to gain this seat and others in a future general election in Scotland (currently favourite here now). It looks like there may actually be more to squeeze from Labour in the Conservative-SNP marginals. I would say this broadly falls into where the polls and other local council by-elections are pointing, that is that we are around where we were at the general election (UP in marginals, DOWN in Central Belt where Labour is competitive) with the SNP down a bit from the general election (1-3% of the vote, which has the potential of being fatal for them in a UK General Election). I don't disagree with much of that really. I suspect the position is much less clear in some Tory marginals - such as Stirling and East Renfrew plus a few others - where pro-Union Labour voters are likely to have misdirected themselves in 2017. A Labour recovery is likely to bring them back into contention next time and so produce several 3-way marginals. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 20, 2018 16:31:46 GMT
Hm. All a bit like all the people who voted for the Labour Party led by that Clown Corbyn in order to stop Brexit! Politics is not always rational.
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 20, 2018 18:06:58 GMT
I've been patiently explaining to a number of people how the LibDem wins in both Thatcham and Lymm are really not anything to do with Brexit! Well, in the sense that the Lib Dems now once more have enough enthusiastic members to fight a local by-election properly, I suppose it IS to do with Brexit |
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Post by thirdchill on Apr 20, 2018 18:16:58 GMT
I've been patiently explaining to a number of people how the LibDem wins in both Thatcham and Lymm are really not anything to do with Brexit! Well, in the sense that the Lib Dems now once more have enough enthusiastic members to fight a local by-election properly, I suppose it IS to do with Brexit Believe me, Lymm is nothing to do with Brexit. It is which candidate is seen as most Pro-Lymm. Personal votes count for far more there than anywhere else in Warrington. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Apr 20, 2018 18:34:30 GMT
Well, in the sense that the Lib Dems now once more have enough enthusiastic members to fight a local by-election properly, I suppose it IS to do with Brexit Believe me, Lymm is nothing to do with Brexit. It is which candidate is seen as most Pro-Lymm. Personal votes count for far more there than anywhere else in Warrington. What Andrew is trying to say I think is that Brexit has helped the LDs gain new members who can then be deployed in by-election campaigns. |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 20, 2018 19:03:23 GMT
What a cracking result for the Conservatives! We're up, and not only are the SNP down by 1%, but the Greens are also down by more than 1% too. And that matters because this area forms part of the highly marginal Perth & North Perthshire constituency (which the SNP won by just 21 votes last year over the Conservatives). This result and the result in Perth City South last year confirms that we're still very competitive here and have a fantastic chance to gain this seat and others in a future general election in Scotland (currently favourite here now). It looks like there may actually be more to squeeze from Labour in the Conservative-SNP marginals. I would say this broadly falls into where the polls and other local council by-elections are pointing, that is that we are around where we were at the general election (UP in marginals, DOWN in Central Belt where Labour is competitive) with the SNP down a bit from the general election (1-3% of the vote, which has the potential of being fatal for them in a UK General Election). I don't disagree with much of that really. I suspect the position is much less clear in some Tory marginals - such as Stirling and East Renfrew plus a few others - where pro-Union Labour voters are likely to have misdirected themselves in 2017. A Labour recovery is likely to bring them back into contention next time and so produce several 3-way marginals. Actually, the cracking bit of the result for the Tories was at the first preference stage. Getting the final transfers from other parties was a bit laborious, wasn't it? Almost 47% at first stage, but not winning to stage 6? I think these Scottish elections never seem to work as they were supposed to do - people reluctantly voting Tory to keep the SDP out could have voted for somebody else (Ms Taylor?) and then let their vote transfer to the Tory in the later rounds, but instead they seem to hold their noses and go straight in for the Tory which may make the result look a bit more decisive than it really was- bit like FPTP, really. |
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 20, 2018 21:07:28 GMT
Believe me, Lymm is nothing to do with Brexit. It is which candidate is seen as most Pro-Lymm. Personal votes count for far more there than anywhere else in Warrington. What Andrew is trying to say I think is that Brexit has helped the LDs gain new members who can then be deployed in by-election campaigns. Yes, that is what I was saying.. Lymm is quite a small ward so one person can do a lot but to take a seat off the Tories with a new person you need organisation. Although I see the Lib Dem candidate was a giant on the Parish Council which might have helped! |
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Post by andrew on Apr 20, 2018 21:10:24 GMT
Tory vote holding up, SNP solid. The focus has to be on the central belt for us and while there’s no evidence of a Labour surge we still need to be wary of them taking a good amount of seats there.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2018 22:17:19 GMT
The danger for the Nats,is squeeze from Cons and LibDems in rural areas,or affluent north-east seats like Perth and Perthshire North,North East Fife looks certain to go,and Labour sweeping the central belt.So many hyper-marginals North of the border it would only need a 1-2% national swing in either direction for several seats too fall.
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Post by thirdchill on Apr 20, 2018 22:45:17 GMT
What Andrew is trying to say I think is that Brexit has helped the LDs gain new members who can then be deployed in by-election campaigns. Yes, that is what I was saying.. Lymm is quite a small ward so one person can do a lot but to take a seat off the Tories with a new person you need organisation. Although I see the Lib Dem candidate was a giant on the Parish Council which might have helped! And the last point is the most important. The lib Dems won in Lymm in 2011 and 2014 due to their councillors with strong local reputations standing for reelection. And came a poor third in 2012 when Sheila Woodyatt stood for reelection. In Lymm if the conservatives had stood someone who had the same strong reputation and the lib dems stood someone who was less prominent, the result would have almost certainly been the other way round. Organisation to help the new candidate is important but if the lib dems had not stood the right candidate then that would have mattered more in Lymm than in the rest of the Warrington borough. In the rest of Warrington it is a bit different and less parochial and the lib dem levels of organisation help them to hold wards like Appleton and Grappenhall which vote conservative (in Appleton's case by a significant margin) at General election time. |
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Post by thirdchill on Apr 20, 2018 22:48:49 GMT
And it's a point I have made before but the conservatives performance at local level in warrington is considerably worse than at General elections. I don't know of any other borough in the north west where the disparity is that vast (though the Wirral comes close in reverse, where they perform much better at local level).
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 21, 2018 8:56:28 GMT
And it's a point I have made before but the conservatives performance at local level in warrington is considerably worse than at General elections. I don't know of any other borough in the north west where the disparity is that vast (though the Wirral comes close in reverse, where they perform much better at local level). Sefton Central - though the Tories and Labour both did much better in Southport in the general than the locals |
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 21, 2018 20:07:27 GMT
Perth & Kinross, Highland - Conservative hold based on first preferences | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2012 | since 2011 B | since 2008 B | since 2007 | | Conservative | 1,907 | 46.7% | +1.2% | +22.7% | +24.3% | +16.9% | +21.1% | SNP | 1,466 | 35.9% | -0.6% | -12.5% | -18.6% | -24.0% | -22.5% | Independent Taylor | 280 | 6.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 239 | 5.8% | from nowhere | +1.8% | from nowhere | +2.8% | from nowhere | Green
| 104
| 2.5%
| -1.4%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere | from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Liberal Democrat
| 78
| 1.9%
| -1.6%
| -4.3%
| -10.1%
| -5.3%
| -11.6%
| Independent Baykal | 12 | 0.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent McDade |
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| -10.6% | -9.1% |
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| Other Previous Independents |
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| -8.3% | -11.1% |
| -2.5%
| Total votes | 4,086 |
| 96% | 118% | 153% | 129% | 90% |
Swing SNP to Conservative 0.9% since 2017, ~ 17½% since 2012, ~ 21½% since 2011 by-election, ~ 20½% since 2008 by-election and 21¾% since 2007 Council now 17 Conservative, 15 SNP, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 1 Labour Warrington, Lymm South - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 769 | 42.8% | +10.4% | +11.7% | Conservative | 649 | 36.2% | -2.3% | -2.6% | Labour | 328 | 18.3% | -1.1% | -1.8% | UKIP | 25 | 1.4% | -8.3% | -8.6% | Green | 24 | 1.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,795 |
| 75% | 77% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 6½% / 7¼% since 2016 Council now 45 Labour, 12 Liberal Democrat, 1 Conservative West Berkshire, Thatcham West - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 820 | 48.4% | +9.7% | +9.1% | +2.9% | +2.6% | Conservative | 523 | 30.9% | -16.9% | -18.6% | -6.8% | -6.0% | Green | 130 | 7.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 130 | 7.7% | -5.9% | -3.6% | -2.4% | -2.7% | UKIP | 91 | 5.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -1.3% | -1.5% | Total votes | 1,694 |
| 54% | 57% | 83% | 85% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 13¼% / 13¾% since 2015 and 4¾% / 4¼% since 2011 Council now 47 Conservative, 5 Liberal Democrat
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 21, 2018 22:02:17 GMT
I think you 15 SNP on Perth and Kinross rather than Labour (esp as you have Labour twice)😉
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