Local Council By-elections 5th April

[greenchristian]

Apr 6, 2018 6:50:40 GMT andrewp said:

Apr 5, 2018 22:35:49 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Well it was a longstanding Indepdnent ward. Don't know anything about the candidate here, but usually these sort of results suggest they are a de facto 'local residents' candidate - I doubt it portends a Green surge nationally or even indicates much about underlying support for the party locally

I live not that far from Wiveliscombe, anyone would be bonkers to draw any sort of national conclusion at all from what happens there!

If there are any conclusions to be drawn about that result, it's in conjunction with the other Green by-election wins over the last year. And the conclusion to be drawn would be that at least some parts of my party have learned how to effectively fight local by-election campaigns. That conclusion may suggest that there's a good chance of Greens in target wards doing a lot better than national polling would suggest, but I'd agree that it doesn't predict a green surge or anything of that nature.

[froome]

The conclusion to be drawn is that we have a good local campaigner in the town with a high profile. It's also worth noting the relatively high turnout, at 43%, a pattern that tends to show up where we have had similar wins, and suggests that people came out to make a positive vote.

[middleenglander]

The Highland, Caol & Mallaig count started at 10.30 am.

Turnout 30.1%, total number of ballot papers 2131.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Caol and Mallaig electorate: 7,088
Number of ballot papers verified 2,131 (30.1% turnout)

Quota 1,066

[robbienicoll]

LD - 658
SNP - 574
Ind (Wood) - 454
Con - 183
Ind (MacKinnon) - 146
Ind (Campbell) - 98

1st prefs

[YL]

First round

Rixson (LD) 658
MacInnes (SNP) 574
Wood (Ind) 454
Smith (Con) 183
MacKinnon (Ind) 146
Campbell (Ind) 98

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Or to give party identification:

HIGHLAND, Caol and Mallaig

RIXSON, Denis (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 658
MacINNES, Alex (SNP) 574
WOOD, Colin ‘Woody’ (Independent) 454
SMITH, Ian (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 183
MacKINNON, Catherine Margaret (Independent) 146
CAMPBELL, Ronald Joseph (Independent) 98

[yellowperil]

Apr 6, 2018 11:37:59 GMT YL said:

First round

Rixson (LD) 658
MacInnes (SNP) 574
Wood (Ind) 454
Smith (Con) 183
MacKinnon (Ind) 146
Campbell (Ind) 98

interesting! - the redistribution from there will be even more interesting!- looks unlikely the SNP can win from there, could Woody make up the difference if the other Indies and Con transfer to him?

[AdminSTB]

I'm amazed that so many people voted for candidate who live so far outside of the ward. We aren't talking a few miles, we are talking 2 hours travel to Caol and possibly longer to Mallaig.

[robbienicoll]

Rixson (LD) - 671
MacInnes (SNP) - 591
Wood (Ind) - 471
Smith (Con) - 188
MacKinnon (Ind) - 176

Comes after exclusion of Campbell (Ind)

Someone quicker than me may want to check how Campbell's vote transferred, but I would say unlikely YP, Cons will likely transfer to the Lib Dems.

[YL]

Campbell's transfers:

Rixson (LD) +13
MacInnes (SNP) +17
Wood (Ind) +17
Smith (Con) +5
MacKinnon (Ind) +30

16 non-transferable

[Tony Otim]

Wood would need to get the overwhelming majority of MacKinnon's vote, which is unlikely. The LDs will almost certainly be more transfer friendly than the SNP in the last 2 rounds.

[andrewp]

Apr 6, 2018 11:50:20 GMT AdminSTB said:

I'm amazed that so many people voted for candidate who live so far outside of the ward. We aren't talking a few miles, we are talking 2 hours travel to Caol and possibly longer to Mallaig.

I thought the SNP would do very badly for that reason, as did most of our predictors. Living in Somerset, maybe I should put up for election in London!

[yellowperil]

A prediction competition which is only triggered once the first prefs are known would be fun in a situation like this.

[tucson]

Apr 6, 2018 11:50:20 GMT AdminSTB said:

I'm amazed that so many people voted for candidate who live so far outside of the ward. We aren't talking a few miles, we are talking 2 hours travel to Caol and possibly longer to Mallaig.

Which candidate are you talking about?

[YL]

Apr 6, 2018 12:01:51 GMT tucson said:

Apr 6, 2018 11:50:20 GMT AdminSTB said:

I'm amazed that so many people voted for candidate who live so far outside of the ward. We aren't talking a few miles, we are talking 2 hours travel to Caol and possibly longer to Mallaig.

Which candidate are you talking about?

The SNP candidate lives in Wester Ross.

[Deleted]

That's a surprisingly good result for the Conservatives on first preferences. Up slightly from 2017 if my calculations are correct.

[YL]

3rd round

Rixson (LD) 706
MacInnes (SNP) 615
Wood (Ind) 539
Smith (Con) 200

Transfers:

Rixson +35
MacInnes +24
Wood +68
Smith +12
non-transferable +37

[AdminSTB]

Apr 6, 2018 12:03:53 GMT YL said:

Apr 6, 2018 12:01:51 GMT tucson said:

Which candidate are you talking about?

The SNP candidate lives in Wester Ross.

The Tory lives on the Cromarty Firth, which to be fair may be easier to drive to Caol than Wester Ross (but Wester Ross might be easier for Mallaig by using the Skye Bridge and Ferry).

[Tony Otim]

Apr 6, 2018 12:03:55 GMT Sandy said:

That's a surprisingly good result for the Conservatives on first preferences. Up slightly from 2017 if my calculations are correct.

Up 0.4% on 2017, which is probably slightly worse than many recent Scottish by-elections, although the absence of the popular incumbent independents would make it difficult to draw too many conclusions.

It's certainly a good result for the Lib Dems though.