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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2018 12:17:21 GMT
The SNP candidate lives in Wester Ross. The Tory lives on the Cromarty Firth, which to be fair may be easier to drive to Caol than Wester Ross (but Wester Ross might be easier for Mallaig by using the Skye Bridge and Ferry). The SNP candidate in my own ward of North, West and Central Sutherland last year was also from the Cromarty Firth ward (She actually replaced an old friend of mine who was the original SNP candidate), and still came a close second; so I don't think it would make all that much difference if the SNP candidate is from Wester Ross. That's a surprisingly good result for the Conservatives on first preferences. Up slightly from 2017 if my calculations are correct. Up 0.4% on 2017, which is probably slightly worse than many recent Scottish by-elections, although the absence of the popular incumbent independents would make it difficult to draw too many conclusions. It's certainly a good result for the Lib Dems though. This is one of their weaker wards in Highland Council though; I expected a very poor result. Hopefully it means the Lib Dems are back in the Highlands though! |
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Post by afleitch on Apr 6, 2018 12:18:41 GMT
That's a surprisingly good result for the Conservatives on first preferences. Up slightly from 2017 if my calculations are correct. Con up 0.5 LibDem up 21.7 SNP up 3.2 Labour were at 5.6 last time. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Apr 6, 2018 12:23:25 GMT
Fourth round
Rixson (LD) 791
MacInnes (SNP) 617
Wood (Ind) 580
Transfers:
Rixson +85
MacInnes +2
Wood +41
Non-transferable +72
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 6, 2018 12:24:08 GMT
I reckoned that regardless of where the candidate lives, there would be a core nationalist vote of about 25 per cent, on ideological grounds.
I did have a suspicion the LD would do well, but lacked enough conviction for a serious prediction punt .
Of course in this ward, everyone is a long way from somewhere, and I doubt many voters know its exact boundaries.
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Post by robbienicoll on Apr 6, 2018 12:25:16 GMT
Rixson (LD) - 791 +85
MacInnes (SNP) - 617 +2
Wood (Ind) - 580 +41
Non transferable 125 (ouch...)
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Post by robbienicoll on Apr 6, 2018 12:28:07 GMT
Looking at how the Independent vote was cut in the first couple of rounds, I would take a punt that Wood's vote will split quite evenly. LD to win if so.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2018 12:29:55 GMT
That's a surprisingly good result for the Conservatives on first preferences. Up slightly from 2017 if my calculations are correct. Con up 0.5 LibDem up 21.7 SNP up 3.2 Labour were at 5.6 last time. Much better result than the Tain and Easter Ross by election where the Tories were starting from a better vote (I would say Tain is reasonably affulent) and lost over 7%. Tain & Easter Ross was also a surprisingly poor result for the Lib Dems considering they gubbed the SNP in the GE. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 6, 2018 12:42:45 GMT
Final stage and Rixson has it - 968 to 737.
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Post by robbienicoll on Apr 6, 2018 12:44:50 GMT
Rixson (LD) - 968 +177
MacInnes (SNP) - 737 +120
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YL
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Post by YL on Apr 6, 2018 12:45:39 GMT
Final stage and Rixson has it - 968 to 737. Transfers: Rixson (LD) +177 MacInnes (SNP) +120 Non-transferable +283 |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 6, 2018 12:45:56 GMT
I reckoned that regardless of where the candidate lives, there would be a core nationalist vote of about 25 per cent, on ideological grounds. I did have a suspicion the LD would do well, but lacked enough conviction for a serious prediction punt . Of course in this ward, everyone is a long way from somewhere, and I doubt many voters know its exact boundaries. I am afraid I had discounted the Lib Dem on the basis of 4th place and less than 10% of the vote last time, and with the same candidate. I thought he could do well on transfers but doubted he would get enough preferences at the outset to benefit from that. Quite wrong- will I ever understand Scottish local elections. Pleased with how its turning out though, but not with my predictions. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Apr 6, 2018 12:48:13 GMT
That's the first Scottish Lib Dem council by-election gain in this cycle. I think (although may be incorrect) this is their first gain since the Culloden by-election in mid-2016.
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YL
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Post by YL on Apr 6, 2018 12:56:23 GMT
| Rixson (LD) | 658 | 671 (+13) | 706 (+35) | 791 (+85) | 968 (+177) | | MacInnes (SNP) | 574 | 591 (+17) | 615 (+24) | 617 (+2) | 737 (+120) | | Wood (Ind) | 454 | 471 (+17) | 539 (+68) | 580 (+41) |
| | Smith (Con) | 183 | 188 (+5) | 200 (+12) |
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| | MacKinnon (Ind) | 146 | 176 (+30) |
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| | Campbell (Ind) | 98 |
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| | Non-transferable |
| 16 (+16) | 53 (+37) | 125 (+72) | 408 (+283) |
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 6, 2018 13:26:40 GMT
Fylde, Heyhouses - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2012 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 655 | 58.1% | +11.5% | +13.0% | +24.6% | -2.0% | -0.8% | Labour | 202 | 17.9% | -13.3% | -14.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 138 | 12.2% | -10.0% | -10.6% | -1.4% | -27.7% | -28.9% | Green | 133 | 11.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -0.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -26.1% |
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| UKIP |
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| -12.3% |
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| Integrity UK |
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| -2.1% |
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| Total votes | 1,128 |
| 42% | 43% | 94% | 81% | 89% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 12½% / 13½% since 2015 otherwise not particularly meaniful Council now 32 Conservative, 12 Independent, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Ratepayer, 2 Non-Aligned, 1 Labour Highland, Caol & Mallaig - Liberal Democrat gain from SNP| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2014 B | since 2012 | since 2007 | | Liberal Democrat | 658 | 31.1% | +21.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +19.1% | SNP | 574 | 27.2% | +3.2% | -3.1% | +12.3% | +17.3% | Independent Wood | 454 | 21.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 183 | 8.7% | +0.5% | from nowhere | +6.3% | +4.7% | Independent Mackinnon | 146 | 6.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Campbell | 98 | 4.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Henderson |
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| -28.3% |
| -32.6% | -22.4% | Independent Thompson |
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| -23.7% | -39.0% |
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| Labour |
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| -5.6% |
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| Other Independent |
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| -0.9% |
| -4.8% | -12.8% | No Description |
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| -22.5% |
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| UKIP |
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| -5.6% |
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| Christianity
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| -2.6%
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| Independent Clarke |
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| -25.6% | -24.8% | Independent Hunter |
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| -18.2% | -14.0% | Total votes
| 2,113 |
| 65% | 88% | 76% | 54% |
Swing not particularly meaningful Council now 28 Independent, 19 SNP, 10 Conservative, 10 Liberal Democrat, 3 Labour, 2 Non-Aligned, 1 Green, 1 Localist New Forest, Milford - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2012 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 1,057 | 76.4% | -3.3% | -3.1% | -3.6% | -2.1% | -1.5% | Liberal Democrat | 200 | 14.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 126 | 9.1% | -11.2% | -11.4% | -10.8% | -12.3% | -12.9% | Total votes | 1,383 |
| 48% | 49% | 115% | 60% | 62% |
Swing not particularly meaningful Council now 57 Conservative, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Taunton Deane, Wiveliscombe & West Deane - Green gain from Independent| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Green | 600 | 44.7% | +32.2% | +31.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 389 | 29.0% | +13.1% | +16.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 352 | 26.2% | -6.1% | -7.9% | -7.7% | -9.3% | Independent |
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| -39.2% | -39.8% | -66.0% | -64.5% | Total votes | 1,341 |
| 49% | 51% | 81% | 85% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 33 Conservative, 15 Liberal Democrat, 4 Independent, 2 Labour, 1, Green, 1 UKIP
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Post by lancastrian on Apr 6, 2018 13:53:21 GMT
I reckoned that regardless of where the candidate lives, there would be a core nationalist vote of about 25 per cent, on ideological grounds. I did have a suspicion the LD would do well, but lacked enough conviction for a serious prediction punt . Of course in this ward, everyone is a long way from somewhere, and I doubt many voters know its exact boundaries. I am afraid I had discounted the Lib Dem on the basis of 4th place and less than 10% of the vote last time, and with the same candidate. I thought he could do well on transfers but doubted he would get enough preferences at the outset to benefit from that. Quite wrong- will I ever understand Scottish local elections. Pleased with how its turning out though, but not with my predictions. Had they got a few more votes in 2017 I would have predicted them to win. I took a punt on Wood due to the record of electing Independents and Campbell and MacKinnon's electoral record (Crofting Commission), despite knowing nothing about him. There wasn't really any outstanding candidate. And it turns out I've topped the prediction competition for the ward, by predicting a win for, as far as I know, some random Scottish bloke. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Apr 6, 2018 14:13:21 GMT
I am afraid I had discounted the Lib Dem on the basis of 4th place and less than 10% of the vote last time, and with the same candidate. I thought he could do well on transfers but doubted he would get enough preferences at the outset to benefit from that. Quite wrong- will I ever understand Scottish local elections. Pleased with how its turning out though, but not with my predictions. Had they got a few more votes in 2017 I would have predicted them to win. I took a punt on Wood due to the record of electing Independents and Campbell and MacKinnon's electoral record (Crofting Commission), despite knowing nothing about him. There wasn't really any outstanding candidate. And it turns out I've topped the prediction competition for the ward, by predicting a win for, as far as I know, some random Scottish bloke. Ronnie Campbell has run for the Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch Scottish Parliament constituency and Ross, Skye and Lochaber Westminster equivalent every election since 2010 hence why my prediction for him was slightly higher than everyone else's. The Sutherland Independents Group had advocated putting MacKinnon first and Wood second, again why they were the way they were for me. Curse of the Independents once again! |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 6, 2018 15:18:56 GMT
I reckoned that regardless of where the candidate lives, there would be a core nationalist vote of about 25 per cent, on ideological grounds. I did have a suspicion the LD would do well, but lacked enough conviction for a serious prediction punt . Of course in this ward, everyone is a long way from somewhere, and I doubt many voters know its exact boundaries. I am afraid I had discounted the Lib Dem on the basis of 4th place and less than 10% of the vote last time, and with the same candidate. I thought he could do well on transfers but doubted he would get enough preferences at the outset to benefit from that. Quite wrong- will I ever understand Scottish local elections. Pleased with how its turning out though, but not with my predictions. Party affiliation really doesn't matter a great deal in the Highlands and Islands |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 6, 2018 17:15:38 GMT
I am afraid I had discounted the Lib Dem on the basis of 4th place and less than 10% of the vote last time, and with the same candidate. I thought he could do well on transfers but doubted he would get enough preferences at the outset to benefit from that. Quite wrong- will I ever understand Scottish local elections. Pleased with how its turning out though, but not with my predictions. Party affiliation really doesn't matter a great deal in the Highlands and Islands Yes I understand this, which is why I had highlighted the fact that it was the same candidate who hadn't managed to get that many first preference votes last time, who magically could this time. It may have something to do with the different dynamics of a by-election. If there is a party issue its probably all about organisation and getting out the vote, a horrendous task in an area like this. |
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