The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 29, 2023 12:29:02 GMT
Given that the Tories only led Labour by a fraction in the popular vote, the difference in terms of divisions carried is striking.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 15, 2023 13:48:40 GMT
2019 SNP make significant gains throughout Scotland largely at the expense of Labour. The Conservatives hold off the SNP's advance in north-eastern and southern areas, while Labour is reduced to leading in just 9 wards (4 in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, 3 in Edinburgh South, 1 in East Lothian and 1 in Shotts).
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Sandy
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Post by Sandy on Sept 15, 2023 22:57:22 GMT
2019 SNP make significant gains throughout Scotland largely at the expense of Labour. The Conservatives hold off the SNP's advance in north-eastern and southern areas, while Labour is reduced to leading in just 8 wards (4 in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, 3 in Edinburgh South and 1 in East Lothian). SNP lead in Fortissat? |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Sept 18, 2023 18:01:58 GMT
I'd be surprised if the Tories didn't carry the Hazlehead / Queens Cross / Countesswells ward in Aberdeen South ahead of the SNP
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 18, 2023 19:33:50 GMT
2019SNP make significant gains throughout Scotland largely at the expense of Labour. The Conservatives hold off the SNP's advance in north-eastern and southern areas, while Labour is reduced to leading in just 8 wards (4 in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, 3 in Edinburgh South and 1 in East Lothian). SNP lead in Fortissat? Had a look over the figures here, and you are quite right. Labour most likely narrowly won the ward in 2019. I have edited the map to account for this. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 18, 2023 19:34:44 GMT
I'd be surprised if the Tories didn't carry the Hazlehead / Queens Cross / Countesswells ward in Aberdeen South ahead of the SNP The map shows the Tories ahead in Lower Deeside and Hazlehead/Queens Cross/Countesswells ward; the SNP ahead in Airyhall/Broomhill/Garthdee. |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Sept 18, 2023 20:49:29 GMT
I'd be surprised if the Tories didn't carry the Hazlehead / Queens Cross / Countesswells ward in Aberdeen South ahead of the SNP The map shows the Tories ahead in Lower Deeside and Hazlehead/Queens Cross/Countesswells ward; the SNP ahead in Airyhall/Broomhill/Garthdee. Ah yes, the map was just too small for me to see it. The Tories would carry Airyhall and Broomhill but the Garthdee element keeps it SNP |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 18, 2023 21:35:42 GMT
The map shows the Tories ahead in Lower Deeside and Hazlehead/Queens Cross/Countesswells ward; the SNP ahead in Airyhall/Broomhill/Garthdee. Ah yes, the map was just too small for me to see it. The Tories would carry Airyhall and Broomhill but the Garthdee element keeps it SNP They most likely carried the ward in 2021. One of a handful of remain-leaning wards which flipped from SNP to Conservative between 2019 to 2021, the others being Colinton & Fairmilehead (Edinburgh), Strathearn (Perth & Kinross) and Stonehaven & Lower Deeside (Aberdeenshire). Similar pattern of behaviour was more broadly seen on a constituency-level in very pro-remain areas such as Eastwood, Aberdeen South & North Kincardine, Stirling and Perthshire South & Kinross-shire where the Conservatives performed notably better relative to the national result. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 18, 2023 21:50:40 GMT
They most likely carried the ward in 2021. One of a handful of remain-leaning wards which flipped from SNP to Conservative between 2019 to 2021, the others being Colinton & Fairmilehead (Edinburgh), Strathearn (Perth & Kinross) and Stonehaven & Lower Deeside (Aberdeenshire). Similar pattern of behaviour was more broadly seen on a constituency-level in very pro-remain areas such as Eastwood, Aberdeen South & North Kincardine, Stirling and Perthshire South & Kinross-shire where the Conservatives performed notably better relative to the national result. Interesting that this occurred in Scotland, as it was also noticeable in England as well. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 31, 2023 12:06:06 GMT
I just tried to 'like' a post but it disappeared. I hope it makes a return in some form..
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Post by uthacalthing on Jan 17, 2024 12:37:28 GMT
Great stuff. What would you say has been the most strongly Labour town / ward in Scotland over the years? I was thinking maybe Cumnock, Cowdenbeath/Lochgelly, Springburn, Coatbridge, Kilsyth, Prestonpans... I dont think Lochgelly would have been strong for Labour because it was strong for Willie Clark, the UKs last Communist. |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jan 17, 2024 13:44:38 GMT
Great stuff. What would you say has been the most strongly Labour town / ward in Scotland over the years? I was thinking maybe Cumnock, Cowdenbeath/Lochgelly, Springburn, Coatbridge, Kilsyth, Prestonpans... I dont think Lochgelly would have been strong for Labour because it was strong for Willie Clark, the UKs last Communist. I think Willie Clarke represented the area just to the north of Lochgelly (Ballingry & Lochore) A the Scottish 1995 Unitary Elections, the Labour candidate obtained 90.2% of the vote in Lochgelly North (albeit a 2 way fight with a Lib Dem!) |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jan 17, 2024 14:12:18 GMT
I am sure you are correct. Latterly, in multi-member wards, Willie represented "The Lochs". I was born into Ballingry, and my father knew Willie. They were reacquainted during the first miners' strike. They chatted about families and allotments while pushing each other back and forth on the picket line.
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 17, 2024 14:19:47 GMT
I am sure you are correct. Latterly, in multi-member wards, Willie represented "The Lochs". I was born into Ballingry, and my father knew Willie. They were reacquainted during the first miners' strike. They chatted about families and allotments while pushing each other back and forth on the picket line. There's a play in there fighting to get oot. |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jan 17, 2024 14:54:04 GMT
I am sure you are correct. Latterly, in multi-member wards, Willie represented "The Lochs". I was born into Ballingry, and my father knew Willie. They were reacquainted during the first miners' strike. They chatted about families and allotments while pushing each other back and forth on the picket line. The Politics of this area fascinates me greatly and would love to learn more. I'm aware of the Russian street names etc |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jan 17, 2024 20:43:32 GMT
OK, fun fact, Robert Burns was an approved poet by the Communist Party in the USSR. Obvious reasons. As such even at the height of the Cold War there was an annual package tour to Moscow from Fife to celebrate Burns and drink Vodka and Whisky. The party consisted mostly of Communist party members, maybe even Willie but certainly one Comrade who had attempted to defect and been refused entry. One year, perhaps 1976, it included my dad, a serving Police Officer, which caused his Chief Constable apoplexy, and a friend of my fathers, a millionaire farmer from Auchtermuchty called Bill Stevens. My dad promised to take me to the Moscow Olympics but weaseled out of it after Afghanistan. I still have a truly astonishing coffee table book that must be the inspiration for Kim Il Fatty. Yours if you want it. Or anyone elses.
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jan 17, 2024 21:28:37 GMT
I'm sure there was a TV documentary made around 15 or 20 years ago based on this area called something like 'Brown's People' - obviously Gordon Brown was the local MP.
I have searched for it on YouTube but without success - does it ring any bells?
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Post by afleitch on Jan 26, 2024 12:08:50 GMT
Great stuff. What would you say has been the most strongly Labour town / ward in Scotland over the years? I was thinking maybe Cumnock, Cowdenbeath/Lochgelly, Springburn, Coatbridge, Kilsyth, Prestonpans... I dont think Lochgelly would have been strong for Labour because it was strong for Willie Clark, the UKs last Communist. I have it as 82% Labour in 1992, as Gordon Brown won 64% in the seat overall. Labour ran a candidate against Clarke in 1994 (which Railings and Thrasher and I use for those notionals and got a respectable 34%. Labour's vote was also much weaker along the coastal strip from Rosyth to Aberdour, so the old coalfields are disproportionately stronger. ---- FWIW, I've not forgotten to actually complete all this 😅 1970 to 1992 is complete with some marginal tweaks based on better access to data and some election reporting in the local press about where parties saw their 'strong' areas (giving David Steel for example a 'win' in the ward he resided in), but the changes aren't that drastic outside rural areas. I just haven't uploaded them. And I probably should. As well as give access to the spreadsheets. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jan 29, 2024 0:09:42 GMT
2010 General Election Based on data collated from afleitch for the 2007 Scottish Parliamentary election. 2010 was the last election won by the Labour Party in Scotland, and the party won it convincingly - dominating the poll in the Scottish Central Belt, Aberdeen, Dundee and much of Nithsdale (areas around Dumfries). The Liberal Democrats also performed strongly in the Scottish Highlands, Scottish Borders, Orkney, Shetland, North East Fife, central and southern parts of Aberdeenshire and well-to-do areas in Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dunfermline and East Dunbartonshire. The party also surprisingly topped the poll in the more working-class town of Penicuik in Midlothian. The Conservatives led in a few core areas, performing reasonably in rural parts of Galloway, Dumfriesshire, eastern Clydesdale and southern Perthshire. They also topped the poll in a few random areas including upper Deeside and central Buchan in Aberdeenshire, Forth & Endrick ward in Stirlingshire, Jedburgh and central Berwickshire in the Scottish Borders and North Berwick Coastal ward in East Lothian. Some affluent suburban areas also voted Conservative, including Ayr West, Newton Mearns South, Colinton & Fairmilehead in Edinburgh and Lower Deeside in Aberdeen. 2010 was an extremely disappointing result for the SNP following their marginal victory at the 2007 Scottish Parliamentary elections. Support for the party was largely confined to parts of Perthshire, Angus, Banff & Buchan, Moray and the Western Isles. In fact, the party only polled very marginally ahead in two wards outside of the seats they held in 2005, these being Kinross-shire in Ochil & South Perthshire constituency and Dunoon in Argyll & Bute constituency. In both cases, a split vote between the Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and Labour resulted in the SNP marginally topping the poll in those wards. The 2010 result will undoubtedly be compared to the forthcoming general election, where the Labour Party are predicted to recover support in Scotland. Comparatively, it is likely that Labour will perform stronger in some suburban areas in Edinburgh South and Aberdeen South compared to the 2010 general election, as well as being projected to win Lewis, Harris and North Uist in the Western Isles. Elsewhere, it is unlikely that support for the party will return to 2010 levels, and the SNP will likely retain pockets of support across the Central Belt, Dundee and Aberdeen which they have picked up following the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Support for the Liberal Democrats has collapsed in much of the Highlands, Aberdeenshire and Borders, while there has been a corresponding increase in support for the Conservatives in parts of Scotland.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jul 7, 2024 20:55:13 GMT
2024
 On Scottish Parliament constituency boundaries
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