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Post by afleitch on Jul 31, 2020 12:40:13 GMT
Interesting that the Tories win the West End ward 1979 - 1992 in Dundee but do not win Broughty Ferry. Presumably though the Conservatives would have won the latter in 2017 going by the local elections that year? Demographic changes in Dundee plus the SNP being competitive in Dundee East; winning 1974-1983 and close second in 1987 makes The Ferry (which also had a small chunk in Angus East) SNP. The SNP also did poorly, if they even stood, in Dundee in the Regional elections except in Broughty Ferry, even if the Tories won there. So the model concentrates SNP strength in that part of the seat. |
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Post by afleitch on Aug 2, 2020 17:32:18 GMT
2016 Labour collapse, coming first in just 11 wards mostly holding wards in the seats that they managed to hold onto. They are wiped out in Glasgow in it's entirety and in West Central Scotland almost completely. Now of course the 2017 GE gave a different scenario, but 2019 corrected that back towards a 2016 style result. It's not one way traffic however; the Lib Dems have seized North East Fife and Edinburgh Western. The Tories too drive huge swings against the SNP in much of the North East and in the Borders seizing a swathe of wards, a nod to what would lie ahead.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Aug 2, 2020 17:38:44 GMT
Interesting how the Lib Dem strength in Edinburgh moved from West/ern to South/ern and back again.
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Post by afleitch on Aug 2, 2020 17:40:39 GMT
So there we are. I will doubtless do the UK General Elections from 2001-2019 simply for both completeness and also to see the pattern of support in 2005 when the Lib Dems came in 2nd. I'm not happy with 1979 and 1974 simply because they aren't my own figures and it still bothers me  |
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max11
Conservative
Posts: 32
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Post by max11 on Aug 2, 2020 18:29:34 GMT
These are very interesting. Thank you!
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 7,081 
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Post by iain on Aug 2, 2020 20:58:10 GMT
Given the levels of tactical voting, I’d have thought Labour would have been more likely to carry Haddington / Dunbar in East Lothian than the areas of traditional strength you have them ahead in?
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Post by afleitch on Aug 2, 2020 21:35:54 GMT
Given the levels of tactical voting, I’d have thought Labour would have been more likely to carry Haddington / Dunbar in East Lothian than the areas of traditional strength you have them ahead in? East Lothian is a bit of a special case. The 2017 locals had SNP strength in Preston and Fa'side etc at the same rate (relatively) as the 2007 locals did. East Lothian in 2016 had a sizable Tory vote share which wasn't going to be found in wards like that. So my calculations had Labour strength strongest where it always with a three way tussle in the rural wards. Baxter's model for the 2017 GE, which was probably the most comparable result, had a similar spread. It was a seat held in 2011 and 2016 and gained in 2017 against expectations. So I admit it looks counter intuitive. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Aug 4, 2020 12:38:59 GMT
2016Labour collapse, coming first in just 11 wards mostly holding wards in the seats that they managed to hold onto. They are wiped out in Glasgow in it's entirety and in West Central Scotland almost completely. Now of course the 2017 GE gave a different scenario, but 2019 corrected that back towards a 2016 style result. It's not one way traffic however; the Lib Dems have seized North East Fife and Edinburgh Western. The Tories too drive huge swings against the SNP in much of the North East and in the Borders seizing a swathe of wards, a nod to what would lie ahead. These maps are the best thing I've seen on this site all year. Many thanks Afleitch! |
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Post by southpaw1 on Aug 5, 2020 20:44:41 GMT
Assume that red blob in the 2016 map between Glasgow and Edinburgh is Fortissat based on the town of Shotts?
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Post by afleitch on Aug 6, 2020 15:47:12 GMT
Assume that red blob in the 2016 map between Glasgow and Edinburgh is Fortissat based on the town of Shotts? Yes. Time does stand still there |
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