Icelandic municipal elections, 2018

[The Bishop]

Thank you @vintris for these summaries!

You said you were in Iceland at the moment, in what capacity?

[Deleted]

I started out giving the seat count for the 14 largest municipalities, making a cut-off point below Ísafjörður as the smallest proper town, and have covered eleven so far. Two of the remaining three (Fjallabyggð in the east and Reykjanesbær with Keflavík) have local lists I know nothing about, so little point in talking about them. But for the sake of consistency I will do Akranes in Western Iceland, which is also one of the places BF had a councillor. It has just below 7,000 inhabitants and a good economy. 

IP lost a seat despite only losing 0.3% of the vote due to fewer wasted votes this time, while PP bounced back and gained 7.3% and a seat after losing 9.2% last time despite the arrival of Centre, which only got 5.7%. So a net gain of 13% to the two "Progress Parties". As in most places SDA lost big last time (11.6% and two seats), they (re)gain 8% and one of the seats. LG used to be quite strong in Akranes and got 16.3% in 2010, only to be halved to 8.1% in 2014 and gave up on running this time. So the SDA gain equals the LG vote from last time. BF got 12.5% and a seat in 2014, but as elsewhere they gave up this time after their councillor declined to run for reelection due to the general meltdown of the party. I don't know why LG have collapsed in Akranes, but its almost certainly related to internal factors and not a change in demographics. 

So the net result is the SDA got the LG vote and PP/Centre gained a share roughly equivalent to the centrist vote BF got last time. The latter would be odd in a national election, but not really in small town Western Iceland where people aren't voting for councillors based on their attitude to the EU and trade policies. Although it underlines that the BF label was less "toxic" in Akranes than it would have been up north. SDA must be disappointed that they couldn't gain more with both LG and BF out of the way as part of the BF vote in 2014 would have come from them. 

IP have lost their majority, while PP are the kingmakers and can decide whether to back IP or SDA.

IP 41.4 (-0.3) 4 (-1)
SDA 31.2 (+8.0) 3 (+1)
PP 21.8 (+7.3) 2 (+1)
Centre 5.7 0 (new)

Not running:
BF -12.5 (-1)
LG -8.1 (nc)

[Deleted]

Total seat count for all 72 municipalities. Most seats are held by independents and local lists, so the numbers are fairly low. 

IP 113 (-7)
PP 45 (-4)
SDA 29 (-6)
LG 8 (-1)
Centre 9 (new)
Reform 6 (new) #
Pirates 3 (+2)
Socialists 1 (new)
People's Party 1 (new)
 # The Reform seat in Kópavogur was won on a joint list with BF, but since that party hardly exists anymore its included.

The "Four Old Parties" lost 18 seats combined, and the "new" parties won 19. It's of course somewhat meaningless to compare total seat count given that seats in small rural municipalities aren't worth as much as the ones in the bigger municipalities, but SDA can't be satisfied with losing 17% of their seats after losing big in 2014 and with BF out of the way. PP must be content with losing less than 1/10 of their seats despite the challenge from Centre and remaining much bigger than the defectors in local politics. Reform got some important seats in Greater Reykjavík, IP only lost marginally and that loss is more than made up by gaining in Reykjavík. LG crashed in Greater Reykjavík, but gained a bit in the small towns and didn't have that many seats to defend to begin with. Their rural vote is to a large extent in places too small to use party politics in local elections and they never had a breakthrough in Reykjavík or Akureyri municipal politics. 

[Deleted]

May 28, 2018 9:27:33 GMT The Bishop said:

Thank you @vintris for these summaries!

You said you were in Iceland at the moment, in what capacity?

I am doing a degree at the University of Iceland. I am not going to disclose in what because the programs up here are so small it would be fairly easy to find out who I am (if anyone bothered..) and I want this account to remain anonymous as it's linked to other accounts writing about more sensitive issues than I do here. 

May 28, 2018 13:42:08 GMT @vintris said:

SDA can't be satisfied with losing 17% of their seats after losing big in 2014 and with BF out of the way.

They won in Reykjavík in 2014 as they (partly) replaced their former allies in the Best Party, but lost nearly everywhere else after a good post-crash election in 2014. In addition their national polls are quite good now, which should have rubbed off locally. 

[Deleted]

As expected Reform in Reykjavík ended up going left and have now initiated talks with SDA, Pirates and LG about forming a coalition, so one Liberal party will be replaced with another which is unlikely to change much in the general direction of city government - though the pressure for fiscal discipline might be a bit higher. They need to have a joint platform ready before the first council meeting on 19 June. The four parties agree on the bus rapid transit system ("City Line"), densification of the city centre and moving the airport from Vatnsmýri and building on its land. All things IP, Centre and the People's Party oppose, so it's a natural outcome. 

Many on the left had preferred a coalition including the Socialists and the People's Party, and both parties were invited to a meeting of the six potenial participants in an anti-IP coalition LG had called on Tuesday, but the People's Party wouldn't budge on their opposition to the city line and airport move and the Socialists declined to enter a coalition and their councillor has come out with a lot of waffle about "using their power to work with the people" and not wanting to be a "house slave" for useless leftist parties. 

There is significant internal criticism among the Socialists of the decision not to seek influence, and some people clearly expected the party to be more serious and constructive and might have regretted they didn't vote LG. 

Eyþór Arnalds is also facing internal criticism from the moderate wing (Bjarni Benediktsson's wing) in the party for having positioned himself so sharply against SDA and their development plans that it became very difficult to assemble a coalition. Bjarni Ben is probably secretly relieved that Eyþór didn't become mayor as a victory for the IP right after having purged the candidate list for Bjarni Ben loyalists and campaigned in a confrontational style in all likelihood would have been a prelude for a leadership challenge from Foreign Minister Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson. 

In addition IP might lose Mosfellsbær despite having four out of nine seats as Centre, SDA, Reform and a local list have more or less agreed on an anti-IP coalition and are now negotiating with the LG councillor. 

Despite a minor decline in votes (to be expected with the arrival of Centre on the stage) IP had a fine municipal election averaging nearly 40% in the 34 municipalities they ran in, but with the prospect of a third term in opposition in Reykjavík and losing power in strongholds like Mosfellsbær, Árborg and the Vestmanna Islands the election might end up being viewed as "lost" anyway, which will give rise to internal feuds about who is responsible. The party being seen as too arrogant and dominant by potential coalition partners in many places is clearly a problem. 

[Devil Wincarnate]

Where would the city airport go, @vintris? Presumably the flights won't just be diverted to Keflavik?

[Deleted]

May 31, 2018 10:50:16 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Where would the city airport go, @vintris ? Presumably the flights won't just be diverted to Keflavik?

No, there are various competing bids, which each comes with their own set of problems. The currently preferred solution seems to be to build a new airport midway between Reykjavík and Keflavík for both foreign and domestic traffic as Keflavík will soon be to small (it already is in many ways), which will then be serviced by the City Line (although some dream of building a railway). That is the solution preferred by the ruling coalition in Reykjavík, but it's expensive and national politicians may worry it's too costly (the ones that aren't adamantly against moving the airport as most of the centre-right is).

However, relying on one airport in the capital area or having two in the same weather belt is unpopular with many for obvious reasons.

The airport debate is one of those issues I have at one point known quite a lot of details about, but have forgotten them because it doesn't really interest me so I can't remember the location and technical problems associated with each bid, but four or five locations have been in play. The one on an extended peninsula would give problem with salt corrugating the airplanes, another to the north of the city has wind problems, and then there is the risk of a volcanic eruption blocking both airports if it's located too close to Keflavík and the wind blows ashes in that direction. 

[Deleted]

The Town List, SDA and PP in Akureuri have agreed to continue their coalition which means the current mayor from the Town List can stay on.

IP's lead candidate Rósa Guðbjarts­dótt­ir becomes the new mayor of Hafnarfjörður as head of an IP/PP coalition. PP gets the chairman of the Municipal Council. The recount didn't move any seats to LG and SDA so IP/PP have a narrow one seat majority between them. IP could have gone with both Centre and Reform, so this is a triumph for PP.

IP have allied with PP in Skagafjörður, so PP keep the municipal manager despite dodgy deals, and the KS coop retains its full control of the municipality. They invited the Settlement List to join the agreement to strengthen their majority, but they turned it down. Which gives the coalition a slim one seat majority and open up the door for defections to the opposition if things stay unruly up there. 

As expected For Heima­ey and the Island List have formed an anti-IP coalition on the Vestmanna Islands with For Heima­ey leader Íris Ró­berts­dótt­ir as municipal manager. 

Reykjanesbær with Keflavík goes to an SDA, PP, local list coalition.

Garðabær and Seltjarnarnes retained their IP majority and mayors/municipal managers.

As previously mentioned broad anti-IP coalitions are under formation in Árborg and Mosfellsbær and between the left and Reform in Reykjavík, while IP and PP are negotiating in Ísafjörður.

Among the "bigger" ones only Kópavogur and Akranes remain in play. In Akranes it's up to PP which way they will go, and in Kópavogur the joint BF & Reform list can either stay with IP or team up with the opposition, but PP could also ally with IP.  A united anti-IP alliance is less likely in Kópavogur because of the good IP/BF cooperation in the last term.

[Deleted]

The final Gallup poll for Reykjavík conducted 22-25 May and published on the election day, which I missed, was quite accurate for most parties. It over polled the Pirates, but nearly all polls do as a lot of apolitical types say they will vote Pirate and then don't bother to vote, and slightly under polled IP, which is due to the usual "default option" effect among swing voters. It also had LG higher and the Socialists lower than the election result, but that likely reflects a real last minute switch where dissatisfied LG supporters chose to punish their party for the government participation and go with the Socialists when it started to seem like they had a chance to get in. It's quite likely the poll was accurate wrt leftist voters when conducted. All in all not bad when you know how to read Icelandic polls as the IP a few points up and Pirates a few points down is standard.



The order from top to bottom is: IP, SDA, Reform, Pirates, Socialists, Centre, LG, People's Party, PP, Others.

[Deleted]

Update: 

- The broad anti-IP coalition has been confirmed in Árborg.
- IP have appealed for a recount on the Vestmanna Island where they lost the decisive seat by six votes and four postal ballots from known IP supporters arrived 20 seconds too late due to bad weather delaying the boat and a fifth is technically invalid due to the voter posting a picture of it on facebook. They then hope to find a sixth ballot. Though its very unlikely they get the recount - bad weather has never previously been accepted as reason for accepting votes. 
- There has been a complaint about the whole election process in Árneshreppur incl. the compilation of the electoral roll, and a committee made up of three jurists will now look into the case and decide whether there should be a revote. 
- Borgarbyggð on the west coast that houses both the tiny University of Bifröst, and the Agricultural University at Hvanneyri gets an anti-PP coalition of IP, LG and SDA with a neutral municipal manager. A rare combo. 

The biggest remaining issue is the second largest municipality Kópavogur where the IP mayor Ármann Kr. Ólafsson wants to continue governing with BF (now BF/Reform) led by Deputy Mayor and ex-MP Theodóra Þorsteinsdóttir, but three out of five IP councillors want them to ditch her - besides personal issues it's partly payback for BF toppling the previous government and Reform siding with the left in neighbouring Reykavík - in favour of a narrow majority with PP. 

The three councillors belong to a faction loyal to Gunnar I. Birgisson (now municipal manager of Fjallabyggð in the east), who was toppled as mayor in 2009 after leading a highly nepotistic administration. When IP returned to power in 2012 they were led by Ármann Kr. Ólafsson, who signaled a new and "clean" line. But he is now in the minority within his own group and can only continue by letting the old guard set the terms. 

The only likely partner for IP is the sole PP councillor Birkir Jón Jónsson, but he is unacceptable to some as one of the PP MPs that in 2010 voted to put former PM Geir H. Haarde on trial for his actions during the crash, a decision IP still considers a betrayal and "political justice". Regardless of who IP pick the internal feuding between the two factions is likely to continue and the six opposition councillors (two BF/Reform, two SDA, one Pirate and one PP) could form an alternative majority to avoid that. Though the IP leadership will put massive pressure on the Kópavogur councillors to avoid that, if the party loses Kópavogur as well as Reykjavík and Mossfellsbær and the two provincial strongholds the election will definitely be viewed as a defeat despite a decent vote share, and Bjarni Ben et al really wants to avoid that. 

[Deleted]

Jun 4, 2018 12:46:42 GMT @vintris said:

- IP have appealed for a recount on the Vestmanna Island where they lost the decisive seat by six votes and four postal ballots from known IP supporters arrived 20 seconds too late due to bad weather delaying the boat and a fifth is technically invalid due to the voter posting a picture of it on facebook. They then hope to find a sixth ballot. Though its very unlikely they get the recount - bad weather has never previously been accepted as reason for accepting votes. 

Well, the Sheriff has authorized a three member electoral committee (similar to the one in Árneshreppur) to look into the matter and evaluate what votes can be accepted. Which is of course completely unrelated to the Sheriff being a lifelong IP member and this being the Vestmanna Islands . A law professor says to Morgunblaðið that a ruling which accepts the four late votes is unlikely, would be a break with all previous practice and that such a decision would likely be appealed all the way to the Supreme Court. So that would be a mess, and I am not sure who would be in charge of the municipal administration in the meantime. 

[East Anglian Lefty]

Jun 4, 2018 12:46:42 GMT @vintris said:

- Borgarbyggð on the west coast that houses both the tiny University of Bifröst, and the Agricultural University at Hvanneyri gets an anti-PP coalition of IP, LG and SDA with a neutral municipal manager. A rare combo. 

That must be a fairly large municipality. I've been to Bifröst (I had to sprint to catch the last bus back to Reykjavík from there after a 25-mile hike) and it's a fair way from the coast.

[Deleted]

Jun 5, 2018 9:28:32 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Jun 4, 2018 12:46:42 GMT @vintris said:

- Borgarbyggð on the west coast that houses both the tiny University of Bifröst, and the Agricultural University at Hvanneyri gets an anti-PP coalition of IP, LG and SDA with a neutral municipal manager. A rare combo. 

That must be a fairly large municipality. I've been to Bifröst (I had to sprint to catch the last bus back to Reykjavík from there after a 25-mile hike) and it's a fair way from the coast.

Roughly the size of Northumberland (34 square miles smaller).

[Deleted]

IP and LG continue their 12 year old coalition in Mosfellsbær with Haraldur Sverrisson from IP as mayor. Its a deal that gives LG influence on many of their pet issues, but given the national situation they probably should have joined the opposition as it sends the wrong signal they are propping up IP in one of the only six municipalities they are now represented in.

IP and PP have signed a coalition agreement in Hafnarfjörður where the opposition failed to lure PP to their side. 

In Ísafjörður IP and PP have as expected signed a coalition agreement with a non-political town manager. Despite being the biggest party the "united left" Ísafjörður List will have to spend a term in opposition.

With continued leadership of Hafnarfjörður and Mosfellsbær the result now looks decent, though still not great, for IP.

[Deleted]

Jun 4, 2018 12:46:42 GMT @vintris said:

The biggest remaining issue is the second largest municipality Kópavogur where the IP mayor Ármann Kr. Ólafsson wants to continue governing with BF (now BF/Reform) led by Deputy Mayor and ex-MP Theodóra Þorsteinsdóttir, but three out of five IP councillors want them to ditch her - besides personal issues it's partly payback for BF toppling the previous government and Reform siding with the left in neighbouring Reykavík - in favour of a narrow majority with PP. 

The three councillors belong to a faction loyal to Gunnar I. Birgisson (now municipal manager of Fjallabyggð in the east), who was toppled as mayor in 2009 after leading a highly nepotistic administration. When IP returned to power in 2012 they were led by Ármann Kr. Ólafsson, who signaled a new and "clean" line. But he is now in the minority within his own group and can only continue by letting the old guard set the terms. 

The only likely partner for IP is the sole PP councillor Birkir Jón Jónsson, but he is unacceptable to some as one of the PP MPs that in 2010 voted to put former PM Geir H. Haarde on trial for his actions during the crash, a decision IP still considers a betrayal and "political justice". Regardless of who IP pick the internal feuding between the two factions is likely to continue and the six opposition councillors (two BF/Reform, two SDA, one Pirate and one PP) could form an alternative majority to avoid that. Though the IP leadership will put massive pressure on the Kópavogur councillors to avoid that, if the party loses Kópavogur as well as Reykjavík and Mossfellsbær and the two provincial strongholds the election will definitely be viewed as a defeat despite a decent vote share, and Bjarni Ben et al really wants to avoid that. 

IP and PP ended up forming a coalition with Ármann Kr. Ólafsson as mayor and Birkir Jón Jónsson as chairman of the City Council. Ármann will be in a difficult spot as he represents the minority wing in the party and the coalition's one seat majority could crumble during the term. If that doesn't happen my prognosis would be that Reform/SDA/Pirates will take Kópavogur next time with a Reform mayor as Ármann will be pressured into accepting various nepotistic appointments and questionable deals which will provoke enough people voting IP in national elections into backing Reform. I think Kópavogur is too much "liberal middle class" by now to go back to an old school IP/PP clientelistic administration.

...

So in the end IP held on to all of suburbia. They kept their majorities in Garðabær and Seltjarnarnes, continue to run Mosfellsbær in coalition with LG and have exchanged BF with PP as coalition partner in the two big suburbs Kópavogur and Hafnarfjörður.

It's notable that IP and Reform aren't going to be in coalition anywhere.

[Deleted]

The municipal agreement for Reykjavík was presented this morning. Dagur B. continues as mayor, despite all the media speculation about Reform wanting the post or demanding a professional mayor.

The City Line gets top priority, but they want the state and suburbs to co-finance it. Increased regularity of buses at peak hours (one every 7.5 min). Lauga­veg­ur to become a pedestrian zone.

The densification strategy on housing continues.

Lots of investments in kindergartens (one in every neighbourhood) and schools. The sibling rebate for daycare and kindergartens will be raised from 50% to 100%.

The only tax reduction Reform got is lower property taxes for businesses in the latter half of the term, the city will continue to have the maximum income tax permissible. I assume they will use energy company profits to pay for their investments.

Replacing BF with Reform has not moved policy to the right.

[Deleted]

Akranes on the west coast got a SDA/PP coalition with a one seat majority and continue with their current non-political municipal manager (ex-CEO for the media company 365). IP became the biggest party with 4 of 9 seats, but the others preferred to shut them out.

The coalition was formed ten days ago but hasn't been reported in the national media so I missed it. That was the only one of the "big" municipalities missing, so I will hereby conclude my coverage of this election.

[Deleted]

Jun 4, 2018 12:46:42 GMT @vintris said:

- There has been a complaint about the whole election process in Árneshreppur incl. the compilation of the electoral roll, and a committee made up of three jurists will now look into the case and decide whether there should be a revote. 

The complaints in Árneshreppur have been dismissed by the committee, so the election result stands and the power plant will be built.