Icelandic municipal elections, 2018

[Devil Wincarnate]

The idea of development of Selfoss being controversial blows my mind. It is utterly tiny. It probably has ten per cent of the population of my own, quite unremarkable home town.

[Deleted]

May 6, 2018 0:15:00 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

The idea of development of Selfoss being controversial blows my mind. It is utterly tiny. It probably has ten per cent of the population of my own, quite unremarkable home town.

In my experience development of small places can be as controversial as development of bigger towns and cities. People often have quite strong feelings about how they want their surroundings to be. 

[Deleted]

Gallup poll for Reykjavík has a 13-10 majority for the coalition. The result of their poll from last month in brackets. The Icelandic Socialist Party gets vital votes from LG and probably also from the Women's List which have fallen below 1%. The People's Party are quite close to getting in, but no one else among the outsiders seems to be in with a chance. 

SDA 27.8 (-3.7) 7
Pirates 14.4 (+3.4) 4
LG 9.3 (-1.2) 2

IP 25.9 (-0.4) 7
Reform 8.1 (+0.4) 2
Centre 4.8 (-1.3) 1

People's Party 3.4 (-0.2)
Icelandic Socialist Party 2.1 (+1.7) 
PP 1.9 (-1.2)
Capital List 1.0 (+0.9)

Others 1.3

[Deleted]

Apr 28, 2018 18:13:09 GMT @vintris said:

It will be decided which lists are confirmed on 5 May, but I have put up the poll for Reykjavík now.

The Men's List is a protest against the formation of the Women's List, focused on father's rights and "full gender equality" and led by academic Gunnar Kristinn Þórðarson and drummer Gunnar Waage. The Call List, so called because they couldn't decide what to call it and didn't want to take themselves too seriously, is formed by the editor Karl Th. Birgisson, with the actress Edda Björg Eyjólfsdóttir, Professor Karl Ægir Karlsson and the Rev. Davíð Þór Jónsson as other semi-prominent names. 

They are running on a mixed bag of populist proposals.  (...)

The Call List didn't make it on the ballot as they failed to collect 160 valid signatures, so there will be 16 lists in Reykjavík, which is still a record.

Other municipalities with more than seven lists:

Kópavogur: 9
Hafnarfjörður: 8
Mosfellsbær: 8
Reykjanesbær: 8

There will be multiple lists in 53 municipalities. Only one list has been approved in four small municipalities (Eyja- og Miklaholtshreppur, Súðavíkurhreppur, Skútustaðahreppur and Tjörneshreppur) and top 5 on those lists will be "elected" unopposed unless someone fields a list by noon today (there is a small time extension in such cases, as only ten signatures are needed in the smallest municipalities its far from impossible to field a last minute list), but that is unlikely. 

No lists were presented in fifteen small municipalities (Kjósarhreppur, Skorradalshreppur, Helgafellssveit, Dalabyggð, Reykhólahreppur, Árneshreppur, Kaldrananeshreppur, Strandabyggð, Skagabyggð, Akrahreppur, Svalbarðsstrandarhreppur, Grýtubakkahreppur, Svalbarðshreppur, Fljótsdalshreppur and Borgarfjarðarhreppur), so their voters will choose beteen independent candidates. You are only allowed to run as an independent if no lists are running. 

[Deleted]

May 6, 2018 0:15:00 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

The idea of development of Selfoss being controversial blows my mind. It is utterly tiny. It probably has ten per cent of the population of my own, quite unremarkable home town.

To elaborate a bit, the IP majority in the council (and possibly some others) claim that central Selfoss isn't "distinctive" enough to justify clauses requiring new buildings to be designed to fit into the existing townscape. The opponents argue that they should and that the plan allows too dense a build-up of the town centre and isn't preserving enough green areas. They have collected enough signatures for a referendum on the plan, which afaik will be held simultaneously with the election. 

EDIT: It will not be held simultaneously with the election, but must be held "within a year". 

[Deleted]

IP win Garðabær by a wide margin and gain four points and an extra seat according to new poll. The new Garðabær List that unites LG, SDA, BF, Pirates and Reform get less than a quarter of the vote. 

IP 63.0 (8)
Garðabær List 23.5 (3)
Centre 4.5 (0)
PP 1.5 (0)
Other 7.5 (0)

[Deleted]

May 7, 2018 8:36:54 GMT @vintris said:

Apr 28, 2018 18:13:09 GMT @vintris said:

It will be decided which lists are confirmed on 5 May, but I have put up the poll for Reykjavík now.

The Men's List is a protest against the formation of the Women's List, focused on father's rights and "full gender equality" and led by academic Gunnar Kristinn Þórðarson and drummer Gunnar Waage. The Call List, so called because they couldn't decide what to call it and didn't want to take themselves too seriously, is formed by the editor Karl Th. Birgisson, with the actress Edda Björg Eyjólfsdóttir, Professor Karl Ægir Karlsson and the Rev. Davíð Þór Jónsson as other semi-prominent names. 

They are running on a mixed bag of populist proposals.  (...)

(...) There will be multiple lists in 53 municipalities. Only one list has been approved in four small municipalities (Eyja- og Miklaholtshreppur, Súðavíkurhreppur, Skútustaðahreppur and Tjörneshreppur) and top 5 on those lists will be "elected" unopposed unless someone fields a list by noon today (there is a small time extension in such cases, as only ten signatures are needed in the smallest municipalities its far from impossible to field a last minute list), but that is unlikely. 

No lists were presented in fifteen small municipalities (Kjósarhreppur, Skorradalshreppur, Helgafellssveit, Dalabyggð, Reykhólahreppur, Árneshreppur, Kaldrananeshreppur, Strandabyggð, Skagabyggð, Akrahreppur, Svalbarðsstrandarhreppur, Grýtubakkahreppur, Svalbarðshreppur, Fljótsdalshreppur and Borgarfjarðarhreppur), so their voters will choose between independent candidates. You are only allowed to run as an independent if no lists are running. 

Of the four municipalities with only one list the voters in Skútustaðahreppur get to vote anyway as a second list declared before the extended deadline expired. In Eyja- og Miklaholtshreppur the sole list decided to withdraw in order to let the voters choose between their candidates who will run as independents. Whereas there will be no vote in Súðavíkurhreppur and Tjörneshreppur, Tjörneshreppur didn't held a vote last time either.  

Biggest municipality with a single list: Súðavíkurhreppur with 196 inhabitants.
Biggest municipality with personal vote: Dalabyggð with 667 inhabitants.

EDIT: The deadline was extended yet again, and a second list declared in Súðavíkurhreppur, so Tjörneshreppur will be the only one without a vote. 

[Deleted]

I was willing to give the Men's List the benefit of the doubt, but they are MRA and involve some dubious characters. It developed as an anti #metoo group for men who thought "feminism had gone too far" and that men were systematically discriminated against in custody cases by the "female dominated" judicial system (#daddytoo) and they are running on stopping the war between the genders initiated by feminist activists. So pretty much as one would expect. 

Their top candidate is Gunnar Kristinn Þórðarson, who has been in IP, PP and Centre and managed to become unpopular in all of them.

Another co-founder is Eyjólfur Vestmann Ingólfsson, who together with his brother Kristján Snorri Ingólfsson took control over the small Households Party after the 2013 election, where the party failed to enter the Althing but did pass the 2.5% threshold for getting public funds. They used these funds on exorbitant consultancy fees to themselves and overseas trips to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil and a couple of resorts in the Caribbean. "Party chairman" Kristján Snorri Ingólfsson eventually accused journalist Pétur Gunnlaugsson of perjury for saying he was defrauding the party, but he was acquitted because he could prove that the brothers had used at least 5.3 mio. of public party funding for entirely private purposes, but since it wasn't illegal for the leadership of a party to use the money any way they saw fit Kristján Snorri Ingólfsson weren't charged and could pay the cost of the trial totalling 650.000 ISK with funds from the Households Party. They have subsequently changed the rules for party funding, so you actually have to use them for the benefit of the party.

....

The Women's List is primarily running on increased awareness of violence and sexual abuse against women in the public administration and in the school system and a break with "rape culture" and are based on the whole #höf­um­hátt movement which developed after the exposure of the reinstatement of honour to convicted paedophiles affair before the Althing election. 

They claim the established parties are only paying lip service to feminism. Former LG councillor Sóley Tómasdóttir, who launched the idea, are out and their lead candidate is some little known academic, but they have some well known names on their list, such as the actress Edda Björgvínsdóttir, comedian Bylgja Babýlons and former Bright Future MP Nichole Leigh Mosty. Though their main function will likely be to take feminist votes away from LG, which seems rather counterproductive. 

[Deleted]

New Gallup poll for Reykjavík has LG tanking and the Icelandic Socialist Party getting in and the Women's Party on 2%. SDA and the Pirates have a majority of their own. 

Coalition: 13
SDA 31.2 9
Pirates 11.5 3
Left Greens 6.7 1

IP 24.8 7
Reform 6.5 1
Centre 4.3 1
Icelandic Socialist Party 3.8 1

PP 3.3
People's Party 2.9
Women's List 2.0
Our City - Reykjavík 1.4
Men's List 1.1
Capital List 0.5
Icelandic National Front 0.01
People's Front of Iceland 0.01
Freedom Party 0.0

[Deleted]

The previously mentioned IP rebellion in Seltjarnarnes did get established as the For Seltjarnarnes list, so two of the strongest IP municipalities in the country will have split lists. 

Its mainly tax hikes, running a deficit during an economic boom, a big loan to pay for pensions, and a questionable property investment that has provoked the rebellion, but the arrogance of the local party leadership plays a part as well. Meeting minutes have often been written in advance and council meetings been reduced to formalities. On 25 April the Municipal Council set a new record when the nine point agenda was finished in three minutes. The previous record of four minutes was set on 24 February 2014. 

[Deleted]

The election in the smallest municipality in the country, Árneshreppur in the Westfiords - which only had 46 residents at the beginning of the year - looks set to be uncharacteristically dramatic with an ongoing legal investigation, as well as allegations of bribery and abuse of authority.

In an attempt to block a hydro power plant at Hvalá 18 people, 17 of voting age, moved to Árneshreppur in the last two weeks before the deadline for voter registration on 5 May, increasing its voting population by 39%. The majority registering on two abandoned farms (since 1966 and 1971 respectively) with no road connection and no houses designated for year round use, the eldest of them being a 90-year old woman, and the rest in the co-op building, which houses the only shop, the "municipal office" and a few flats. A co-owner of the Drangar farm near the site of the power plant has registered with his wife, but claims he has never authorized the other nine new residents to register there and has no idea who they are.

The hydro power plans were approved by a 3-2 majority earlier this year and while the municipality may not be able to reverse the decision it can effectively be blocked by not issuing any of the necessary permits. 

In 2014 there were 47 registered voters and only 34 voted. There are four hamlets in Árneshreppur but most of the farms and houses are either deserted or secondary homes only used in summer.  

Registrating pro forma with the intent to influence an election is illegal and can give up to two years in jail, so the environmentalists are taking a risk. 

A couple of the new residents are students that are allowed to be registered with their parents even if they live elsewhere and others are retired or have occupations where its hard to prove they aren't settling permanently (e.g. artists). They newcomers include the chair of the conservationist organisation Saving Iceland and relatives of the locals that are against the power plant. The company behind the the power plant, Vesturverk, has paid for the investigation of the residency claims by a law office and basically all other legal fees the municipality has had since the project started whether related to the case or not, which is illegal so the municipal manager is in trouble. 

The former MP (mostly for PP, but also for three other lists incl. thePeople's Alliance and right wing populist Liberals) Kristinn H. Gunnarsson has publicized the names, occupation and family ties of the newcomers, which has also caused some controversy, and claims that he is hired by Vesturverk. 

So far an electoral roll with 65 names including the 17 newcomers have been approved by the municipal council, but with the condition that if the national register Þjóðskrá Íslands' investigation shows some of the newcomers aren't actually residing in the municipality they can be removed from the roll. 

[Deleted]

I was at a meeting for immigrants (14% of the population in Reykjavík now) and “speed dating” with the candidates at the town hall, with presentations that mostly turned into a competition on how many housing units they thought they could build per year. With IP “winning” that auction by saying 2,000, which is substantially more than not just the current 700-800 but also the 1200-1300 they were at pre-crash. I will believe it when I see it.

Unlike the three other more or less nationalist parties/lists (Freedom Party, Our City and the People’s Party) the Icelandic National Front had actually turned up sending a stocky build square jawed man in his early 70s, who spent his entire 3 min. intro repeating how much they disliked immigrants, though not the ones from "the Baltic and Europe", pretty surreal but kudos to him for showing up I guess.

The PP candidate was a former airline pilot whose pitch was that he had visited cities all over the world through his 22 years flying so he had lots of ideas that could improve the city. He also described his life as a quest for answering the question "what is love?", quoted some obscure Korean philosopher who had apparently answered this and said that was what he would bring to city government. I have never heard anyone from a mainline centre-right party say such a lot of waffle, but he actually sounded quite sensible when I spoke to him afterwards. Still, where do they find these people? But I guess the people left in PP after the exodus of most of their party organization were bound to be a quirky bunch, even quirkier than usual for the oddity that is a rural interests party in a city. 

PP are running on their usual package of moderate heroism (lets build both in the city and in the outer suburbs, lets both invest in a BRT network and local buses, "lets both" everything + a couple of sensible, but costly proposals. A 40,000 ISK transport grant to all students who cycle or use public ttransport rather than buy a car to reduce congestion and emissions in the centre and a 100,000 ISK annual bonus to teachers to stop the teacher shortage. All financed from the surplus in the municipal energy company, since the city already is at the government imposed limit for municipal taxes.  

Apart from that I was confirmed yet again that the Icelandic Socialist Party are completely unserious. I asked them how they are going to finance their proposals, and that resulted in a lot of waffling and "we aren't going to be the ones that will have to make the decision" (sic!). Its really a shame that anti-governent ex-LG voters seem to give these tools a seat. 

[Deleted]

LG in Reykjavík are now saying they won't ally with IP under any circumstances, even if the current coalition loses its majority or is dissolved, but probably too late to give that guarantee given the national grand coalition they should have emphasized it from the get-go even if it probably seemed superfluous to them. SDA have said it from the start of the campaign. They also state they can work with the Icelandic Socialist Party. 

[Deleted]

Kópavogur poll in Fréttablaðið with 2014 results in brackets. The joint BF & Reform list gets less than half the BF result in 2014 despite BF having the deputy mayor. 

Coalition: 6
IP 36,4 (-2,9) 5
BF & Reform 7,1 (-8,1) 1

Opposition: 5
SDA 20,0 (-3,9) 2
PP 8,4 (-3,4) 1
Pirates 7,4 (-1,5) 1
LG 6,7 (-2,9) 1

Centre 5,3  (new)
For Kópavogur 4,7  (new)
Icelandic Socialist Party 2,3 (new)

[Deleted]

Nine parties and lists have signed a declaration supporting multiculturalism and condemning hate speech and prejudice against immigrants, which has been put forward by German born SDA candidate Sabine Leskopf. The seven parties/lists that have declined to sign it are Centre, People's Party, Icelandic National Front, Freedom Party, Our City - Reykjavík, the Men's List, and the Capital List. Only the latter is really surprising as they are running a high number of immigrant candidates. Centre haven't tried to compete with the four immigration skeptical and/or xenophobic lists (People's Party, Icelandic National Front, Freedom Party, Our City - Reykjavík), but signing a pro-multiculturalism declaration would likely be a bridge too far for their voters, and perhaps they are hoping to attract a few IP voters by this signal. The Men's List clearly have a right wing populist vibe to them, so its to be expected they aren't signing it. 

[Deleted]

Reykjavík poll from the University of Iceland with the result from last month in brackets. It has SDA with a solid lead over IP and confirms that LG are losing about two points to the Socialists. Incumbent Dagur B. Eggertsson still has a clear lead over Eyþór Arnalds for preferred mayor.

It doesn't look like Eyþór will make it, he has seemingly lost momentum and even if the People's Party manage to take either the second seat from LG or the pass the Socialist Party of Iceland that isn't enough for a centre-right majority, and even if there were one its doubtful that Reform would accept a coalition including Centre and the People's Party. The poll has PP getting in, but they are right on the margin and might as well be out. With three parties between 3.4 and 3.9 and LG on 2 x 3.7 a lot of seats are uncertain. 

Coalition: 47.2% and 12 seats
SDA 31.8  8
Pirates 8.0 (+1.2) 2
LG 7.4 (-2.3) 2

IP 26.3 (-1.0) 7
Centre 6.5 (-0.8) 1
Reform 4.9 (-0.4) 1
Socialist Party of Iceland 3.9 (+2.1) 1
PP 3.6 (+0.8) 1

People's Party 3.4 (-0.2)

Women's List 0.9 (-0.9)
Men's List 0.9 (not registered)
Icelandic National Front 0.8 (+0.3)
Capital List 0.6 (-0.4)
People's Front of Iceland 0.6 (-0.2)
Our City - Reykjavík 0.4 (not registered)
Freedom Party 0.0 (-0.3)

Preferred mayor: 

Dagur B. Eggertsson (SDA) 43.5 
Eyþór Arnalds (IP) 29.4
Vigdís Hauksdóttir (Centre) 8.5

[Deleted]

May 19, 2018 13:49:46 GMT @vintris said:

The election in the smallest municipality in the country, Árneshreppur in the Westfiords - which only had 46 residents at the beginning of the year - looks set to be uncharacteristically dramatic with an ongoing legal investigation, as well as allegations of bribery and abuse of authority.

In an attempt to block a hydro power plant at Hvalá 18 people, 17 of voting age, moved to Árneshreppur in the last two weeks before the deadline for voter registration on 5 May, increasing its voting population by 39%. 

(...) 

So far an electoral roll with 65 names including the 17 newcomers have been approved by the municipal council, but with the condition that if the national register Þjóðskrá Íslands' investigation shows some of the newcomers aren't actually residing in the municipality they can be removed from the roll. 

Þjóðskrá Íslands has declared thirteen of the moves invalid and accepted one, while one person has withdrawn her registration in Árneshreppur saying it was a mistake (probably after finding out its actually illegal to move pro forma to influence the vote), the last three are still under investigation. 

The municipal council have voted on twelve of the moves deemed pro forma by Þjóðskrá Íslands (the thirteenth is a minor) and denied them all access to residency status and the electoral roll, but only with a 3-2 majority. The opponents of the power plant insist that since a third of the inhabitants currently registered in the municipality do not live there during the winter other part time residents should be allowed to register as well if they have "local connections". 

[Deleted]

Hafnarfjörður poll in Fréttablaðið. Hafnarfjörður used to be a place where the left was competitive, but its too "private sector middle class" these days. It has been ruled by an IP/BF coalition for the last four years. Chairman of the municipal council Guðlaug Kristjánsdóttir, who was briefly national BF chairman, is running her own Municipal List after the local BF branch more or less dissolved due to factional strife, but is a long way from getting in. One seat is right on the margin between IP and SDA in this poll, but regardless of whether or not IP get it they will have a centre-right majority. Though PP could choose to go left to avoid working with the defectors in Centre if SDA get the third seat. 

IP 32.0 (-3,8) 4/5
SDA 19.2 (-1.0) 2/3
PP 11.6 (+5.1) 1
Centre 9.7 (new) 1
Pirates 9.7 (+3.0) 1
LG 8.3 (+3.4) 1

Reform 5.8 (new)
Municipal List 3.1 (new)

[Devil Wincarnate]

May 24, 2018 17:28:59 GMT @vintris said:

Hafnarfjörður poll in Fréttablaðið. Hafnarfjörður used to be a place where the left was competitive, but its too "private sector middle class" these days. 

it seems a rather nice place to be.  Although on my trips over there, I've wondered if I'd personally rather live in Seltjarnarnes or Laugadalur if I were ever to live in Iceland.

[Deleted]

Birgitta Jónsdóttir has declared she is voting for the Icelandic Socialist Party and complimented their ability to mobilize and engage people.. She must really be crossed with her old party. 

In other news the Pirates lost their complaint against the Freedom Party using their old party letter Þ. They had alleged its still associated with them and also too close to their current one P so it could be mistaken if people have bad handwriting but the complaint was turned down on a technicality, so I expect the Freedom Party to do a bit better than expected.